Biden's Lead Is Name Recognition

Biden announced and quickly shot to the top. I believe his lead is name recognition. It is called being on national television for eight long years. I expect the lead to quickly come down after a few debates. He might still be among the top five for a few months. But Iowa and New Hampshire might winnow him out. In short, I don't expect Biden to become the nominee.

2020 is the year of the Social Democrat. The New Democrat had two and a half decades. That run is over. There is no middle of the road way to tackle climate change. There is no middle of the road method to tackle health care for all.

But the Social Democrat will only offer a losing proposition if he/she does not make it absolutely clear they expect tech entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship, in general, to play a central role in the biggest problems today. In fact, their very positions on health and education have to be sold in market terms. They are investments in human capital. They are about putting human capital front and center.

I have no idea who will be the nominee. It is a good thing there are many good names in the fray. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are the two seniors. They have done much to shift the spectrum of political choices. Bernie is good at emphasizing a few key points. Whereas Warren keeps churning out policy paper after policy paper like the professor she is.

Kamala Harris has great symbolism. She is surprisingly skillful. Her cheerfulness masks her pragmatism. She has taken clear positions. So many women are running. This might be the first election when a woman running is not news. I hope this is the new normal.

Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg are the two truly fresh faces. They are the wonks. Andrew Yang is famous for his Universal Basic Income idea, but his website is full of ideas on every possible policy topic. There is a part of me that even wants the two on a ticket.

I see Beto running for Texas Governor and finally flipping that state.