Barackface: October 2012

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Romney Can Have North Carolina

English: Cartogram of the 2008 Electoral Vote for US President, with each square representing one electoral vote. Nebraska, being one of two states that are not winner-take-all, for the first time had its votes split, with NE-2 voting for Obama and the rest of the state for McCain. Cartogram-2008_Electoral_Vote-es.svg (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

But the rest of the swing states are leaning Obama.

What State Polls Suggest About the National Popular Vote

pretty much every method for evaluating the election based on state polls seems to hint at a very slight popular vote lead for Mr. Obama, along with an Electoral College one...... Obama leads nationally by 1.9 percentage points — by no means a safe advantage, but still a better result for him than what the national polls suggest. ...... Obama would lead by two percentage points in the consensus forecast weighing the states by their 2004 turnout. ...... Or we can weigh the states by their turnout in 2010, a very good Republican year. But that doesn’t help, either: instead, Mr. Obama leads by 2.1 percentage points based on this method. ..... Obama’s lead in the Electoral College is modest, but also quite consistent across the different methods. The states in which every site has Mr. Obama leading make up 271 electoral votes — one more than the president needs to clinch victory. The states in which everyone has Mr. Romney ahead represent 206 electoral votes. ..... In recent elections — since state polling data became more robust — it’s the state polls that have done a bit better. This was especially so in 1996, when national polls implied a double-digit victory for Bill Clinton over Bob Dole (and Ross Perot) but state polls were more in line with the single-digit victory that he actually achieved. In 2000, state polls provided an accurate portrayal of a too-close-to-call race, while national polls missed high on George W. Bush vs. Al Gore. ...... the historical evidence weighs in slightly more heavily on behalf of the state polls, in my view, when they seem to contradict the national ones. If the state polls are right, than Mr. Obama is not just the favorite in the Electoral College but probably also in the popular vote. ..... Obama made gains in the FiveThirtyEight forecast on Tuesday, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing to 77.4 percent. ...... A fair amount of this boils down to Ohio, where three polls released on Tuesday gave Mr. Obama leads by margins ranging from three to five percentage points. ..... the poll by Quinnipiac University for The New York Times and CBS News, which had Mr. Obama five points ahead in Ohio ..... Mr. Obama had a somewhat above-average day in national polls on Tuesday, which had him up in the race by about one percentage point on average. Part of this is because the Gallup poll, which has shown very poor results for Mr. Obama, did not publish results on account of Hurricane Sandy. .......... the poll from Google Consumer Surveys. (Yes, Google has begin to conduct surveys online.) That poll had Mr. Obama ahead by four percentage points ...... The Google survey could be an indication that the effects of the hurricane will play somewhat to Mr. Obama’s political advantage.

In Swing States, a Predictable Election?

the polling in most swing states now looks very similar to the way it did for much of the late spring and summer. ....... our projected leader in all 50 states is the same as it was at our launch of the forecast in June. ..... In June, Mr. Obama was projected to a 3-point lead in Nevada, a 2.3-point lead in Iowa, a 1.3-point lead in Virginia, a 1.1-point lead in Ohio and a 1-point lead in Colorado. The forecast in those states has moved just four-tenths of a point since then, on average; the largest shift has been in Ohio, where Mr. Obama’s polling has been reasonably resilient and he now has a 2.2-point edge. ...... New York is one exception; polls there have shown an especially large lead for Mr. Obama ..... Of the remaining gains that Mr. Romney has made in national polls, much of it may have come from his improved performance in deeply red states; that is where our state-by-state forecasts show his numbers improving the most. ....... this race has been fairly stable relative to most presidential elections. ...... the results we’re now seeing are quite consistent with what the economic fundamentals might dictate: a very tight race, narrowly favoring Mr. Obama. ..... our forecast in every state on Nov. 6 will be the same as it was on June 7. Colorado, Virginia and Florida, being the closest states in the forecast now ..... a mild recovery for Mr. Obama over the past week or so in the polls. ..... Obama’s predicted probability of winning the Electoral College has improved as a result (to 74.6 percent as of Sunday).

In Polls, Romney’s Momentum Seems to Have Stopped

On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls. ..... This is the closest that we’ve come in a week or so to one candidate clearly having “won” the day in the tracking polls — and it was Mr. Obama. ..... Our “now-cast” also finds a slightly favorable trend for Mr. Obama over the course of the past 10 days or so. Mr. Romney’s position peaked in the “now-cast” on Friday, Oct. 12, at which point it estimated a virtual tie in the popular vote (Mr. Obama was the projected “winner” by 0.3 percentage points). As of Wednesday, however, Mr. Obama was 1.4 percentage points ahead in the “now-cast,” meaning that he may have regained about 1 percentage point of the 4 points or so that he lost after Denver. ....... Since the Denver debate, Mr. Obama has held the lead in 16 Ohio polls against 6 for Mr. Romney. In Nevada, Mr. Obama has had the lead in 11 polls, to Mr. Romney’s 1. Mr. Obama has led in all polls of Wisconsin since the Denver debate, and he has had five poll leads in Iowa to one for Mr. Romney.

Obama Wave

It is not a tie after all. Looking like a Barack Obama sweep by now.

The wave for Obama

As he tours Sandy devastation with Chris Christie, swing state polls break for the president ..... With reliable polls in Ohio and Wisconsin Wednesday showing Obama with solid leads there, Romney has almost no path to victory on Tuesday. Polls today also showed him holding smaller leads in the swing states of Virginia, Florida and Nevada, and tied in North Carolina. .... White working class voters in both Ohio and Wisconsin are key to Obama’s strength there ..... Romney was going to focus on “cultural” issues – read racial issues – to court those white voters. Romney and Paul Ryan stepped away from the welfare lies after everyone from Bill Clinton to Newt Gingrich said there was no evidence for the claim. But there it is again, in ads going up in Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado and Florida, as Romney tries to tap into traditional white taxpayer association between welfare and minorities. ...... Romney’s lies about the auto industry are arguably more brazen and baseless, and they’ve drawn unprecedented rebukes from officials at GM and Chrysler. But so far they’re not working either. Even as worried Ohio Chrysler employees sought reassurance that they’d keep their jobs, polls were showing that Ohio voters believe Obama cares more about them than Romney does. Almost half of white working class voters believe the economy is getting better, which helps account for why Obama is tied among those voters while he trails by up to 30 points with the same demographic in Florida and Virginia ...... the Obama team is sounding confident while Romney’s sounds desperate. ..... The criticism by Christie, Chrysler and GM is a welcome sign that Republicans and corporate leaders may learn to cooperate with the president so many of their colleagues disrespect and deride. It also tells me something else: those three titans think Romney is likely to lose, and they don’t need to pay him any deference or worry about working with him in January.

Mitt Romney "Expands" To General Motors

In a false show of confidence to dupe We The People the Romney campaign is saying it is moving now to previously blue states because, well, they claim they already have the previously swing states down. We The People are not falling for that, but that is another story.

When Mitt Romney lies about complex policy issues not everyone catches him right away. But small, concrete lies are hard to fly. And Mitt Romney has been caught. Romney lies, then when you point that out, he repeats the lies. Try apologizing, Mitt.

Now General Motors Is Ripping Mitt Romney For Lying About The Auto Industry

Apparently undeterred by the backlash over his false claim that Chrysler is shipping U.S. jobs overseas, Mitt Romney broadened his attack to include General Motors Tuesday. And General Motors was not happy about it. ...... Like the Chrysler television ad, the radio spot is extremely misleading. General Motors' U.S. employment did drop by 14,000 from 2008 to 2011, most of the losses came at the height of the recession in 2009. And those jobs were not moved to China...... Unsurprisingly, GM's reaction was swift and harsh: ..... "We've clearly entered some parallel universe during these last few days,” GM spokesman Greg Martin told the Detroit Free Press. “No amount of campaign politics at its cynical worst will diminish our record of creating jobs in the U.S. and repatriating profits back to this country.”...... Chrysler has similarly debunked Romney's claims. And both ads have been widely panned, with virtually no response from the Romney campaign.

Barack Obama is having to campaign against a lying Mitt.

Ohio Is Solid Obama

Mitt Romney's entire gameplan of crossing 270 electoral votes goes through Ohio. And Ohio is solid Obama. I suggest Mitt Romney expand his litany of lies instead of "expanding" into deep blue states. Maybe maybe it will work. But then when you cry wolf just one more time ... you can't fool all the people all the time.

That first Obama debate performance? The poor guy was flummoxed by Mitt Romney's blatant lies. When it is night time Mitt Romney says it is day time. How do you react? You get flummoxed. You are in disbelief. There is a live audience of tens of millions.

Fundamental Dishonesty

Karl Rove is lying too. It is contagious.

These Numbers Are Incredibly Deflating For Mitt Romney's Chances In Ohio

Mitt Romney's need to "expand the map" is looking increasingly important this morning, as a new CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac poll paints a picture that has the Republican nominee's chances there slipping away with less than a week until the election...... Romney trails President Barack Obama overall, 50-45, in the poll, continuing the president's stubborn advantage in the swing state. The set of CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac swing-state polls also finds Obama leading by 2 points in Virginia and by a single point in Florida. Though the numbers in the other two swing states have dropped in the past month, the state of the race in Ohio looks exactly the same........ an overwhelming majority of Ohio voters think the economy is improving....... By a 40-30 split, Ohio's voters believe the nation's economy is getting better. The state numbers show an even bigger gap — 52 percent of voters think the economy is getting better, compared with just 17 percent who say it is getting worse...... Forty-one percent of these Ohio voters who say their economy is improving believe that Obama deserves a lot of credit for it. That contributes to Obama's lead over Romney in trust on handling the economy...... Sixty percent of Ohio voters said Obama identifies with and cares about their problems. Only 44 percent said the same about Romney.

DRUDGE REPORT: 'Sex Scandal To Hit Campaign...'

Drudge, a close personal friend of Mitt Romney's campaign manager Matt Rhoades, has hyped up several exclusive news stories during the 2012 campaign cycle

Mitt Romney Has Been Telling A Huge Whopper About The Auto Industry, And His Campaign Is Finally Paying For It

Chrysler even sought to clarify this in a blog post last week: ... "Jeep has no intention of shifting production of its Jeep models out of North America to China. It’s simply reviewing the opportunities to return Jeep output to China for the world’s largest auto market. U.S. Jeep assembly lines will continue to stay in operation. A careful and unbiased reading of the Bloomberg take would have saved unnecessary fantasies and extravagant comments." ... But despite the fact that Romney's claim was demonstrably wrong, his campaign is doubling down in the new ad, which went on air this weekend in Ohio. .... "Obama took GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy, and sold Chrysler to Italians who are going to build Jeeps in China," the ad says. "Mitt Romney will fight for every American job." ..... The ad appears to be a last-ditch effort to reverse Obama's key advantage in Ohio, a must-win swing state where 1 in 8 voters are employed by the auto sector. Romney, who trails by an average of 2 points in Ohio, has taken a big hit in the state for his criticism of the Obama administration's auto bailout. ...... Ken Lortz, a United Auto Workers leader in Toledo, said that Romney's ad had only upset Ohioans "who know better.” .... "We knew he wasn’t on our side when the economy and the industry was on the brink," Lortz said "But the fact that he would lie to our faces and try to deceive us is just too much."

Mitt Romney approves this message, of course he does.

Barack Obama approves this one. Take that, Mitt.

Conservatives Are Beginning To Freak Out About Chris Christie And Barack Obama

Christie really just doesn't "give a damn" about politics, as he alluded to on Tuesday.

A New Wisconsin Poll Continues A Brutal Swing State Polling Day For Mitt Romney

President Barack Obama's lead has expanded to 8 points in a new Marquette Law School poll of swing-state Wisconsin, a 7-point swing from just two weeks ago..... He trailed in three new polls of Virginia, Florida and Ohio ..... In the Marquette poll, Obama's advantage has grown to 51-43 as the campaign hits its final week. Obama's standing improved 2 points from the school's last poll, while Romney's fell a significant 5 points. The poll gives Obama a 4-point Real Clear Politics average lead in the state in polls taken over the past two weeks. ...... In another state, Obama holds a big early-voting advantage. He wins the early vote 56-36 thus far — significant, as 10 percent of the 1,243 likely voters surveyed said they had voted....... Along with the Ohio results, the Wisconsin poll presents a dim picture for Romney's path to 270 electoral votes next week. Obama's path revolves around keeping Ohio, Wisconsin and one of Iowa or Nevada in his column. And in all of those states, Obama currently holds leads in the RCP averages of the states.

Chris Christie Just Posted Dozens Of Pictures Of His Trip With Barack Obama
Obama And Chris Christie Had A Very Serious Talk While Touring Hurricane Damage [PHOTO]

Karl Rove Is Riding The Gallup Horse

Karl Rove has a sharp political mind. I don't doubt that. But he is also sharply partisan, to the point of being blind. I don't doubt that either. When in the mood he also looks at Republican National Committee surveys.

Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner

For example, in 2004 President George W. Bush had 49% in the final Gallup likely-voter track; he received 50.7% on Election Day. In 1996, President Clinton was at 48% in the last Gallup; he got 49.2% at the polls. And in 1992, President George H.W. Bush was at 37% in the closing Gallup; he collected 37.5% in the balloting. ...... On Friday last week, Gallup hinted at the partisan makeup of the 2012 electorate with a small chart buried at the end of its daily tracking report. Based on all its October polling, Gallup suggested that this year's turnout might be 36% Republican to 35% Democratic, compared with 39% Democratic and 29% Republican in 2008, and 39% Republican and 37% Democratic in 2004. ..... Gallup delivered some additional bad news to Mr. Obama on early voting. Through Sunday, 15% of those surveyed said they had already cast a ballot either in person or absentee. They broke for Mr. Romney, 52% to 46%. The 63% who said they planned to vote on Election Day similarly supported Mr. Romney, 51% to 45%. ........ Furthermore, in battleground states, the edge in early and absentee vote turnout that propelled Democrats to victory in 2008 has clearly been eroded, cut in half according to a Republican National Committee summary. ...... My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

Gallup vs. the World

The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney.......... its results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case. ....... Other national polls show a race that is roughly tied on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage of about two points for President Obama in tipping-point states like Ohio. The forecast has Mr. Obama as a narrow favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls. ...... the Gallup national tracking poll constitutes a relatively small part of the polling landscape. ....... there are quite a few interviews conducted by a tracking poll over the course of a week — about 3,000 per week in the Gallup national tracking poll, for instance. ...... But Gallup is not the only national tracking poll. There are six published on most days ....... even though the Gallup national tracking poll is more influential than any other individual poll series in the FiveThirtyEight trend-line calculation, it still accounts for only about 12 percent of it. It can very easily be outweighed by the other polls if they are in disagreement with it. ....... Our research suggests, for instance, that state polls, rather than national polls, often provide a better estimate of the national popular vote, in addition to the Electoral College. ....... the Gallup daily tracking poll accounts for only about 3 percent of the weight in this stage of the calculation. The national tracking polls collectively, including Gallup, account for only about 10 percent of it. Most of the weight, instead, is given to the state polls. ...... Perhaps the Gallup poll accounts for 5 or 10 percent of the information that an election analyst should evaluate on a given day. ....... The Gallup poll’s influence on the subjective perception about where the presidential race stands seems to be proportionately much greater than that, however — especially when the poll seems to diverge from the consensus. ........ Usually, when a poll is an outlier relative to the consensus, its results turn out badly. ...... You do not need to look any further than Gallup’s track record over the past two election cycles to find a demonstration of this....... In 2008, the Gallup poll put Mr. Obama 11 points ahead of John McCain on the eve of that November’s election. ... That was tied for Mr. Obama’s largest projected margin of victory among any of the 15 or so national polls that were released just in advance of the election. The average of polls put Mr. Obama up by about seven points. ..... The average did a good job; Mr. Obama won the popular vote by seven points. The Gallup poll had a four-point miss, however. .... In 2010, Gallup put Republicans ahead by 15 points on the national Congressional ballot, higher than other polling firms, which put Republicans an average of eight or nine points ahead instead. ..... In fact, Republicans won the popular vote for the United States House by about seven percentage points — fairly close to the average of polls, but representing another big miss for Gallup............ Apart from Gallup’s final poll not having been especially accurate in recent years, it has often been a wild ride to get there. Their polls, for whatever reason, have often found implausibly large swings in the race. ....... In 2000, for example, Gallup had George W. Bush 16 points ahead among likely voters in polling it conducted in early August. By Sept. 20, about six weeks later, they had Al Gore up by 10 points instead: a 26-point swing toward Mr. Gore over the course of a month and a half. No other polling firm showed a swing remotely that large. ...... Then in October 2000, Gallup showed a 14-point swing toward Mr. Bush over the course of a few days, and had him ahead by 13 points on Oct. 27 — just 10 days before an election that ended in a virtual tie. ...... In 1996, Gallup had Bill Clinton’s margin over Bob Dole increasing to 25 points from nine points over the course of four days. ..... After the Republican convention in 2008, Gallup had John McCain leading Mr. Obama by as many as 10 points among likely voters. Although some other polls also had Mr. McCain pulling ahead in the race, no other polling firm ever gave him larger than a four-point lead. ......... The context is that its most recent results differ substantially from the dozens of other state and national polls about the campaign. It’s much more likely that Gallup is wrong and everyone else is right than the other way around.