Image via WikipediaPassing health care reform was historic, and puts Obama in the FDR league of greatness. Work on financial sector reform also looks promising. Success on health made work on finance easy.
Obama might get tempted to make as much headway as possible on immigration as well. His commitment to the issue is beyond doubt, and the Hispanic caucus might even argue that putting immigration reform front and center will ensure crucial Hispanic turnout. And the Hispanic voters tend to cast the deciding vote.
That might as well be the case, but my instinct tells me the best strategy would be keep the immigration issue alive but saving actual work on it to begin in early 2011, hopefully to be completed by the end of that year, if not earlier. Some of the passions exhibited during the health care debate were to do with a really bad economy. People were hurting and anxious.
Health care reform, financial sector reform, comprehensive immigration reform: these are huge issues, and huge accomplishments when work is completed.
By the end of 2011 though, as Obama gears for his reelection effort, he is going to have to talk deficits and debt loud and clear. He will have to run on the platform that he will have balanced the budget early in his second term. Actually hinting towards that eventuality might be a great theme to keep echoing in the lead up to November this year itself.
A nuanced strategy would be to begin work on immigration this year but barely, so it does rouse Hispanic turnout at the polls, enough to tilt the tide in favor of Obama keeping both chambers, but to do actual work after the election is over. It is because immigration is a volatile issue. The top priority for the rest of this year for Obama has to be to keep the House and keep the Senate.
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