Scenario 1: Clinton wins Nevada, Barack wins South Carolina, it is a tough fight on February 5, Barack barely wins. They end up being running mates.
Scenario 2: Clinton wins Nevada, Barack wins South Carolina, it is a tough fight on February 5, Hillary barely wins. They end up being running mates.
Scenario 3: The fight is not over on February 5.
What is working for Hillary? Bill Clinton's dirty old ways. He swift boated Barack in New Hampshire, and has not stopped trying in Nevada and elsewhere.
What could work for Barack? He seriously needs to deliver a major speech on taking race relations to the next level with a MLK tone of voice, one that brings the whites and the nonwhites together. He also has to tackle gender as a topic.
And give Bill Clinton a few staffers worth of attention. Follow his every move, every word, offer rebuttals as soon as he delivers attacks.
Although Barack has substantially narrowed Clinton's national lead, I am suprised the February 5 states are still acting quite independent of the January states. But we have two more contests this month. A South Carolina victory is going to be a huge boost for Barack.
I think California will end up deciding if it is Barack or Hillary.
(January 19)
Benazir's Death
Benazir's death shook me to my foundations. I got distracted from Obama 2008 in a major way. But after two defeats - New Hampshire and Nevada (I don't know yet for sure but I think we are on schedule to lose Nevada) - I am back in the groove. I am going to see Barack through February 5. And beyond if necessary. Barack, I am back.
The Al Qaeda And Political Organizations In Manhattan
Benazir, One Whose Looks Have No Parallel
Benazir, Last Month
Benazir, Benazir
Benazir Bhutto: No American Stooge
Benazir Should Address Many Mass Rallies, Hold No Street Events, Keep Tight Security Around Her House, Office
Benazir And Islamofascism
Bill Clinton
Don't worry about Bill Clinton. I will take care of Bill Clinton. I will dog his moves, offer rebuttals to his nonsequential remarks. That guy thinks he is running for a third term. Somebody read to him the constitution.
I don't know as much about the US federal government as he does, yet. I don't know as much policy detail as he does, yet. And I sure don't share his taste for shaking hands. But I will go head to head with him on tactics and strategy.
Bill Clinton And Race
The so-called first black president has been shamelessly using the race card. His calling Barack a fairytale in New Hampshire, that was racist. The first viable black candidate in history is not even real, go figure.
I remember. This was long before Hillary was seeking reelection for her Senate seat. Looked like some local Republican who happened to be gay was going to challenge her. He was small fry, barely making the waves in the local media. Bill Clinton went on national TV and called him "gay." That was homophobic, but he did it. In his mind, he did it for his wife.
Now he has successfully used the race card twice in a row. Calling someone a fairytale is like saying, that guy is black, don't take him seriously.
In Nevada he went ahead and made an attempt at minority vote suppression. The courts failed him but he won the political battle. All he wanted was some racial polarization and he got it. This is racist.
In his autobiography Bill Clinton has said, "I have always loved Hillary very much, though not always not very well." New Hampshire and Nevada have been the not very well parts.
He is going to make a big attempt on that same theme in California. If he also succeeds there - and he will if Barack stays above the fray - Obama 2008 is over on February 6.
New Kind Of Politics Can Still Be Pragmatic And Realist
When you get hit, you hit back. That is fundamental to campaigning. That is like one of those Newton's laws of motion.
Where you can differ is on how you hit back. You can get mean when hitting back. You can lie when hitting back. You can engage in the politics of personal destruction when hitting back. All that is old school, all that is slash and burn, all that is so 1990s, Barack is saying no to all that. He is turning the page.
But that does not change the you got to hit back part.
So how do you hit back?
Hillary has been making the rounds saying Barack is a talker, not a doer. That is a hit. Where is the counter hit? A good, effective counterhit would be this: Hillary sure is a doer, she did the Iraq War, didn't she?
That reflex action you got to show, otherwise voters lose respect for you. If you don't go for that reflex action, you end up being Adlai Stevenson, not JFK. They are not even going to consider you for running mate. You remain a black guy.
Rapid Response
There is an urgent need for this.
Rescue Mission
Barack has to give a major speech on how he will take race relations in America to the next level. The best timing would be one day before the South Carolina primary. It has to appeal to both whites and blacks, MLK style. And it would be take if he would also bring along the gender theme a little. The speech is at the bottom of this page: JFK, Obama Parallels: Catholic, Black. This could end up his most important speech for the entire primary season, the speech that turned things around.
How To Play The Race Card In South Carolina
In The News
US Presidential Candidates Prepare for Contests in Nevada, South ...
Obama delivers blistering attack on Clinton Baltimore Sun In one of his fiercest attacks yet on his leading challenger, Barack Obama today accused Hillary Clinton of stealing his ideas, frequently being wrong on policy decisions and lacking honesty with voters. ....... I was very popular when I was 20 points down. I was a good American, wonderful inspiration," he said. "Funny how politics works." ......... the foreclosure crisis that is responsible for so much of the economic duress the country is facing ...... "She said she voted for it, but she hoped that the bill would die," he said. "Think about that. She voted for it, even though she hoped it wouldn't pass." ........ "Part of my job in this race is to restore people's sense that you say what you mean and you mean what you say," he said, almost yelling. "I'm happy to put my record against almost anybody. But what I don't want is the experience of playing a bunch of political games, tit-for-tat, partisian nonsense that doesn't actually solve the problems that hard-working Americans are facing. We don't need more of that experience. We need a change in America."
Obama in northern NV, as poll shows him behind Baltimore Sun
Obama camp claims victory in casino caucus case
Clinton holds narrow Nevada lead on Obama: poll
Poll: Clinton, Romney Ahead in Nevada
Obama ratchets-up pressure over Clinton's senate record
Clinton plays gaming card against Obama
CIA blames Al Qaeda, Taliban for Bhutto assassination Christian Science Monitor
Nevada Basks in a New Political Sun New York Times
Clinton Kicks Off California TV Campaign New York Times
New ad features Huckabee’s praise of McCain The Hill
Clinton, Obama vow to bury race debate Leading The Charge Clinton and Barack Obama blamed aides and campaign surrogates Tuesday night for fueling a campaign controversy over race, jointly pledging on the birthday of Martin Luther King Jr. to put the matter behind them. ..... the former first lady won a meaningless Michigan presidential primary ..... Edwards said he had changed his mind on the issue, citing new scientific evidence about its risks.
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