I am just joining the guessing game here. I think Obama is going to announce some time in January, perhaps towards the end. That he is running. He will likely announce at least a few days before the new Congress convenes. That way you get to hog more of the limelight.
I hope he announces before the State Of The Union. Obama that way is going to suck the Bush oxygen. Already lameduck, Bush gets to become even more lameduck. The country is plain tired of Bush. It is so obvious Bush lacks strategic thinking.
He can't do it this year. 2006 is for the Congress. Do not compete.
I am sure he will run. And I am sure he will win. To me it is not if he will run. To me it is more like what will be his platform when he runs? To me it is not if he will win. To me it how great a president he will be.
January is not too early as long as you do not repeat the Howard Dean mistake: conserve the money.
He could spend much of the first year listening. It will allow him to travel far and wide. It will allow him to build a strong network. House party time all over again.
But of course, by December 1, you better have camped in Iowa and have a strong, ready base in New Hampshire. Good thing South Carolina comes soon after, and I think Nevada. Dean got it changed so two more diverse states come up pretty soon.
Obama will win all four of them.
Obama competes with himself. You can win and be good, or you can win and be great. Be great.
I think the grassroots response to Obama will be electric. Much of his money and organization will come that way.
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