The scale of the Israeli attack has caught me by surprise. It is just so big and ongoing, no end in sight.
There are many ways to look at this conflict.
- A tussle between a democracy and countries that are not so.
- A tussle between divergent cultures, a clash of "civilizations."
- The attribution of the actions of non state actors upon state actors to degrees that can not be accurate.
- The right wing propensity to hit physically when offended.
- A proxy regional war. Like a Corleone family small fish says in the movie Godfather, "This has to happen once every 10 years."
The regional dynamics are so very complex. There are so many threads. There are deep religious undercurrents. There are long histories of grievances on both sides.
Take the case of suicide bombers. A full fledged state with a standing army fights with that army. What does a non state hoping to become a state do? It ends up sending suicide bombers. Both soldiers and suicide bombers are people who, by definition, are ready to die. It is an ongoing war of asymmetry.
Syria is a poor country. Iran is not rich, although large. The Palestinians are a poor people. Israel is rich. There is a West-Third World divide there.
I think Clinton did a very good job of deescalation. But Bush is not even trying. It is against his ideology to try. His thrust is to just keep pounding. Strong on defense means a lot of defense companies make a lot of money when wars happen. Each missile is millions of dollars.
Peace making is a tricky proposition. It is hard enough when the parties to the conflict are trying. Here not only are the parties not attempting peace, there is no visible outside actor making such an attempt. Peace making is a proactive process. America is one power that could matter. America is disengaged. America has gone to sleep on the hapless Arabs.
Arafat is gone, but when he was around it always amused me when western peacemakers demanded that he "end" terrorism. That is akin to asking the mayor of New York City to bring the murder rate in the city down to zero. You deny the guy his state, and then you wonder why he is not doing a good job of law enforcement.
This is a war between power and powerlessness. Israel is rich. The Arab masses are poor.
I have long maintained the only way the Long War - War on Terror - will conclude is after all Arab countries become democracies. I wish there were a way to ignite local democracy movements. Lack of democracy really distorts ground sentiments. And you end up facing Israeli incomprehension.
What a mess we have at hand! Both sides harbor exaggerated fears. Israel is nowhere near being pushed into the sea. But it claims to be fighting for its right to exist. Syria and Iran feel under siege. I hear that is how World War I started, through sheer miscalculation.
The first goal has to be deescalation. Then a ceasefire. Then confidence building measures. Then meaningful talks, comprehensive peace.
What is going on right now is a dangerous game of brinkmanship.
In The News
Never A Ceasefire For Mideast Hatreds A decades-long record shows that Hamas and Hezbollah always find new reasons to attack. Diplomatic skills and arm-twisting tactics have not yet been invented with the power to change the fundamental reality that these two terrorist groups still believe Israel can and must be defeated and the Jewish state destroyed. ...... The realism of Nixon, the idealism of Carter, the saber rattling of Reagan and Bush I and the secret diplomacy of Clinton have yielded more Nobel Peace prizes than actual peace......... Arabs divided on Hezbollah over Israel Houston Chronicle, United States many vilifying it for provoking Israel's attack on Lebanon...... Backers, however, voice pride in Hezbollah's ability to fight back, landing missiles from its Iranian-supplied arsenal deep inside Israel.......Arabs on the whole have felt a historic frustration over their inability to defeat Israel. Hezbollah's missile strikes deep inside Israel generate pride because they inflicted pain on an opponent with clear military superiority..... Hezbollah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, represent "what is left of honor and dignity in times of submission" ....... "By striking Israel, he has restored the glories of the old Muslims" ........ "Beloved Nasrallah, hit Tel Aviv!" chanted the crowd, estimated at around 10,000 people....... "He reminds me of Saddam Hussein, who dragged Iraq into several similar adventures which have led to the complete destruction of Iraq" ...... "He is arrogant and irresponsible." ...... Hezbollah's political strength in Lebanon threatens the government's hold on power; its military power has made it impossible for the government and army to take control of the south......... "The Israelis aren't hurting Hezbollah. They're killing civilians and they are destroying Lebanon" ...... Israel says Hezbollah, Iran coordinated soldier abductions ABC Online
Arabs Divided on Hezbollah Over Israel Washington Post
Israel won't rule out invasion NEWS.com.au The Israeli retaliation has inflicted the heaviest destruction in Lebanon for two decades. ...... Hezbollah then attacked a naval vessel off Beirut and fired hundreds of rockets at northern Israel, killing at least 24 people..... Israel's Public Security Minister Avi Dichter said the country might have to negotiate over prisoners to end the crisis ....... Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said his country would pursue its offensive until the two soldiers were returned and the Lebanese army controlled all of south Lebanon.......
Israel claims Iran link to crisis BBC News, UK "Syria is trying to get back into Lebanon, it looks like to me," Mr Bush said in Washington. .......A British warship docked in Beirut at the start of a mission to transport up to 12,000 Britons and a further 10,000 people with dual British-Lebanese nationality to Cyprus..... UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said he expected European nations to contribute troops to a proposed stabilisation force to end the fighting ..... The Lebanese army has been ordered not to respond to the Israeli attacks........ Rockets also hit Haifa, Safed, Acre, Kiryat Shemona, and Gush Halav region near Safed ...... more than 700 Hezbollah rockets have now landed in Israel since the crisis began.
Israel's Olmert says no time limit to offensive Reuters.uk
Israel says Hizbollah, Iran coordinated abduction Reuters AlertNet
Israel sets its terms for end to campaign Sydney Morning Herald Israel would continue its military campaign until Hezbollah stopped firing rockets at Israel, pulled back from the border and returned two kidnapped Israeli soldiers. ..... The United Nations, which has sent a delegation to the region, has joined the European Union in calling for intervention by international peacekeeping troops. But the move has been resisted by the US ..... he does not believe the Lebanese Government is strong enough to take on Hezbollah. ...... - the return of the captured soldiers and a pullback by Hezbollah to the Litani River, about 30 kilometres north of the border. In 2000 Israel withdrew from a buffer zone it had patrolled in southern Lebanon since 1985, a move highly popular with the Israeli public. ..... Hezbollah has fired 1500 missiles and rockets into Israel from southern Lebanon ...... destroyed an Iranian-made Zelzal missile, which has a 160-kilometre-range and could reach Tel Aviv
Netanyahu: Israel Will Prevail in Mideast FOX News Israel is now girded with Iranian enclaves, Iranian-supported enclaves, Iranian directed enclaves, and Syria takes a part in helping both Hamas and Hezbollah with logistics and with weapons. ...... the missiles and the rockets that are being fired, as you point out, on Israeli citizens are getting deeper into Israel than they ever have. ....... We're the — remember we're the small Satan for the Islamic terror octopus...... Iran is arming itself with nuclear weapons right now and with the long-range rockets, long-range rockets that far exceed Israel and ultimately are destined to reach the Eastern Seaboard of the United States........ there was a killing of seven family members on a Gaza beach on June 9, after which Hamas called off its cease-fire........ You ask what is precipitating this? The answer is nothing that Israel does. It's just Israel being there, breathing........ all of this, what you see now, is the prelude. It's the promo to the real show....... It's a new Nazism. It's a new form of Nazism. It doesn't put race, but a twisted view of the Islamic religion as its credo. ...... I see a similarity in the tepid response from some quarters.Italy slams Israel 'excess' The Australian, Australia the war had heightened regional risks and anti-Western fundamentalism. ...... "Israel's prevalently military vision of security, which is what has prevailed so far - targeted killings, reprisals, restrictions which aggravate living conditions of Palestinians - not only produce unsustainable human costs. ....... "But they increase the level of hatred and, therefore, insecurity." He said Israel's attacks in Gaza "went beyond any reasonable proportion"......... the political risk of Lebanon's collapse would not reinforce Israel's securityItaly slams Israel excess, failed Iraq policy Reuters AlertNet
Graham criticizes Harper for siding with Israel CTV.ca, Canada
Canada's Lebanon stand sparks domestic criticism Reuters AlertNet
PM: Canadians are getting out of Lebanon 'extraordinarily quickly' National Post
Canada's role as peacemaker at risk, says Graham National Post
G-8 Leaders Denounce Hezbollah Attacks on Israel Voice of America
Lebanon condemns Israel 'madness' BBC News
Israel won't rule out land invasion Advertiser Adelaide
Lebanese PM says Israel opening "gates of hell" Radio New Zealand
Syria not a target - Israel News24, South Africa several trucks carrying weapons that had entered Lebanon from Syria had been destroyed by Israeli aircraft on Lebanese territory.Israel says Hizbollah smuggling weapons from Syria Reuters
Israel Will Not Attack Syria Despite Hezbollah Using Syrian ... Playfuls.com
Israel agrees to evacuee exodus The Australian, Australia
Israel refuses temporary ceasefire request ABC Online
No Israel ceasefire for Aussie evacuation Daily Telegraph
Australia says Israel refused to facilitate evacuation Jerusalem Post
Hundreds protest in Cairo against Israel SABC News, South Africa
Offensive likely to redefine West Asia political map Indian Express Israel’s assault on Lebanon threatens to weaken Arab moderates throughout the region, bolstering the image of Islamic militants at a time when anger among the Arab public is running high over the war on terror and America’s role in Iraq....... the punishing air campaign ...... But the military campaign is also the result of the deadlock in Arab-Israeli peacemaking after decades of false starts........ ‘‘Hizbollah wants to be recognised as a major Middle East player... Picking up a fight is a good way of doing this.’’ ....... Thousands have demonstrated in Arab capitals to protest the incursion and the lack of action by Arab governments to stop it. .....
Israel welcomes G8 statement TVNZ
Israel says it is ready for talks but the strikes will continue Times Online, UK Israeli political and military leaders are careful to put no time limits on their artillery and aerial bombardment of Lebanon ...... brings Lebanon’s death toll to approximately 240, mostly civilians. An Israeli was also killed in Nahariya by Hezbollah’s Katyusha rockets, raising the Israeli toll to 25. .....Securing that region required “activity by the Lebanese Government with the oversight (and) assistance of the international community,” she said....... Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary-General, moved to assure Israel that the new force would be much stronger than the 2,000-strong United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, which has failed to disarm or restrain Hezbollah........ Diplomatic activity is picking up pace on other fronts. .... No Apparent Solution to Israel's Crisis With Lebanon Los Angeles Times
Attacks continue; Israel sets ceasefire conditions Globe and Mail
UN Delegation Presents Ceasefire Ideas to Israel Voice of America Condoleezza Rice said she will travel to the region when it is appropriate, necessary and helpful to do so. ..... She said the international community must make sure that it deals with underlying conditions and finds a solution of lasting value.
On The Web
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