| 2006 | 2016 | 2026 | 2036 | 2046 | 2056 | |
| Nepal | $ 1200 | $ 2400 | $ 4800 | $ 9600 | $ 19,200 | $ 38,400 |
| India | $ 3000 | $ 6000 | $ 12,000 | $ 24,000 | $ 48,000 | $ 96,000 |
| China | $ 6000 | $ 12,000 | $ 24,000 | $ 48,000 | $ 96,000 | $ 192,000 |
| America | $ 40,000 | $ 80,000 | $ 160,000 |
If Nepal, India and China were to grow 10% a year all the way to 2056, and America were to grow at 5%, America will still remain the number one country in terms of per capita income. These figures assume income doubles every 10 years at 10%, whereas it doubles every 20 years at 5%. It is a simplistic assumption. And those growth rates are nowhere near certain.
This leads me to believe America will continue to be the number one country for my work life. But then the GDP figures come in, and there India and China become 800 pound gorillas pretty soon, if they are not already. And then there is always the issue of the ethnics doing well in America. The Indian Americans are already the most successful ethnic group in America in that an average Indian family makes twice as much as an average white family. I first learned that in 1999.
The reason I am bringing up these numbers is so as to counter alarmist right wing thinking in America when it comes to robust Asian growth. We do want economies to grow and trade with each other across the board.
And robust growth does not have to be at the expense of the environment. There will be much production and consumption of mind food. Much of the future growth will be because we are in the information age. Vehicles can become clean. Fossil fuels do not have to be the mainstay.
Basically you are talking political, economic and social infrastructure. Introducing democracy where it does not exist, deepening it where it does exist, creating the right policy framework, law enforcement and property rights, and creating harmony for ethnic, religious, racial and gender diversity is the progressive homework. There is room for everybody. Poor countries growing is more kids getting vaccinated, more kids going to schools, more kids eating proper lunches.
And it really is not about ego, although I at times do get carried away by the Asian Century talk. It is about growth as it positively impacts the individual. Individuals in the Global South, individuals in the inner cities.
Prosperity is kind of like the internet. The more computers that get connected to the internet, the more valuable the internet becomes. Similarly when more individuals and countries prosper, the already prosperous become even more well off.
And so root for China and India.
On The Web
CIA World Factbook: China
China Today
China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
China the Beautiful - Chinese Art and Literature
BBC NEWS | World | Asia-Pacific | Country profiles | Country ...
China - A Country Study
China Daily
China News Digest
Wikipedia - India
CIA World Factbook: India
India Tourist Office
India Image
Yahoo! India
The Times of India
Lonely Planet - World Guide: India
Maps of India
Incredible India
Government of India
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