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Saturday, February 28, 2026

Timeline of Actions in the US-Israel-Iran Conflict


Timeline of Actions in the US-Israel-Iran ConflictThe conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has roots in longstanding tensions, including Iran's support for proxy groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, its nuclear program, and regional power struggles. It escalated from shadow wars and proxy attacks into direct confrontations starting in 2023, culminating in the "12-Day War" in June 2025 and a renewed joint US-Israeli strike as of February 28, 2026. Below is a detailed chronological timeline of key actions by each party, focusing on military engagements, technology, hardware, and strategies employed. This is based on verified reports and excludes unrelated proxy conflicts unless directly tied to these three actors.Pre-2023 Background (Contextual Setup)
  • Iran's Strategy: Iran has long pursued a "forward defense" doctrine, using asymmetric warfare via proxies (e.g., arming Hamas with rockets and Hezbollah with anti-tank missiles) to deter Israel and the US without direct confrontation. This includes ballistic missile development (e.g., Shahab-3 medium-range missiles with 1,300-2,000 km range) and uranium enrichment for potential nuclear breakout. Hardware: Indigenous drones like Shahed-136 (kamikaze drones with 2,000+ km range) and Fateh-110 precision-guided short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs, 300 km range, GPS-guided).
  • Israel's Strategy: "Mowing the grass" – periodic preemptive strikes to degrade threats, combined with cyber operations (e.g., Stuxnet virus in 2010 that sabotaged Iranian centrifuges) and assassinations via Mossad. Hardware: F-35I Adir stealth fighters (US-supplied, with Israeli modifications for electronic warfare), David's Sling and Iron Dome for missile defense, and Spice precision-guided bombs.
  • US Strategy: Containment through sanctions, alliances with Israel (annual $4 billion in military aid), and occasional airstrikes on Iranian proxies. Hardware: F-15/F-16 fighters, Tomahawk cruise missiles, and advanced intelligence-sharing via satellites and drones like MQ-9 Reaper.
No direct "war" existed pre-2023, but tensions built through Iran's nuclear advancements and proxy attacks.2023: Escalation from Israel-Hamas War
  • October 7, 2023: Hamas (Iran-backed) launches surprise attack on Israel, killing 1,200 and taking 250 hostages. Iran provides indirect support via funding, training, and weapons (e.g., rocket technology transferred to Hamas for Qassam rockets). No direct Iranian action, but it praises the attack as resistance.
  • October 2023 Onward: Iran-backed militias (e.g., Kata'ib Hezbollah in Iraq) launch over 200 attacks on US and Israeli targets in Iraq and Syria using drones and rockets. Hardware: Improvised explosive drones and short-range rockets. Strategy: Proxy attrition to pressure US withdrawal from the region.
  • October 26, 2023: US conducts airstrikes on two Iran-backed facilities in Syria in response. Hardware: Precision-guided munitions from F-16 fighters. Strategy: Limited retaliation to deter without escalation.
2024: First Direct Exchanges
  • February 2, 2024: US strikes 85 Iran-affiliated targets in Iraq and Syria after militia attacks. Hardware: JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) bombs delivered by B-1 bombers. Strategy: Degrade proxy networks to protect US forces (about 2,500 in Iraq/Syria).
  • April 1, 2024: Israel airstrikes Iranian consular building in Damascus, Syria, killing two IRGC generals and five advisors. Hardware: Likely F-35 stealth penetration with standoff munitions (e.g., Delilah cruise missiles). Strategy: Targeted decapitation to disrupt IRGC command.
  • April 13-14, 2024: Iran launches first direct attack on Israel – over 300 drones and missiles. Most intercepted by Israeli defenses (99% success rate) with US assistance (e.g., US Navy destroyers using Aegis system and SM-3 interceptors). Hardware: Mix of Shahed drones and Emad/Khorramshahr ballistic missiles (hypersonic-capable, 2,000 km range). Strategy: Overwhelm defenses with swarm tactics; symbolic show of force rather than maximum damage.
  • October 1, 2024: Iran launches 180 ballistic missiles at Israel after Israel kills Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Intercepted largely by Arrow 3 system ( exo-atmospheric interceptors). Hardware: Fattah-1 hypersonic missiles (Mach 5 speed, maneuverable warheads). Strategy: Retaliation to signal deterrence amid weakening proxies.
  • October 2024: Israel conducts its largest direct attack on Iran, targeting air defenses (S-300 systems) and missile production facilities. Hardware: F-15I Ra'am fighters with bunker-penetrating bombs; possible cyber intrusions to disable radars. Strategy: Degrade Iran's ability to launch future strikes, weakening its "axis of resistance" (proxies decimated by this point).
2025: The "12-Day War"
  • June 12, 2025: IAEA declares Iran in violation of non-proliferation obligations; Iran announces secret uranium enrichment site. Israel launches unilateral strike on nuclear facilities (e.g., Natanz, Fordow), missile factories, and assassinates senior officials/scientists. Hardware: Over 100 aircraft, including F-35s for deep penetration, and reported Mossad drone activations inside Iran. Strategy: Preventive strike to halt nuclear breakout (Iran at 90% enrichment threshold); regime targets to incite internal unrest.
  • June 13-21, 2025: Iran retaliates with waves of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel. Also strikes Tehran targets like Evin Prison and IRGC centers claimed by Israel. Hardware: Qiam-1 SRBMs and suicide drones. Strategy: Tit-for-tat to defend sovereignty, targeting urban areas for psychological impact.
  • June 22, 2025: US enters directly, striking three nuclear sites (including underground Fordow) to "eliminate Iran's nuclear program." Hardware: B-2 Spirit stealth bombers deploying GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (30,000 lb bunker-busters capable of 200 ft penetration). Strategy: Collective self-defense of Israel; prevent nuclear weaponization under War Powers Resolution.
  • June 23, 2025: Iran fires ballistic missiles at US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar (largest US Mideast base). No casualties; symbolic retaliation. Hardware: Sejjil-2 medium-range ballistic missiles (solid-fuel, mobile launchers for rapid deployment). Strategy: Escalate to involve US allies, deterring further strikes.
  • June 24, 2025: Ceasefire announced by President Trump; hostilities end after minor salvos. Total: ~12 days of direct war. Strategy on all sides: Avoid full-scale invasion; focus on air/missile exchanges to limit casualties while achieving objectives (Iran: survival; US/Israel: nuclear degradation).
2026: Renewed Strikes and Ongoing Tensions
  • February 2026 (Pre-28): Diplomatic talks resume amid Gulf incidents; US shifts to "attritional campaign" strategy, preparing long-term weakening of IRGC and nuclear/missile infrastructure. X posts indicate preparations for US strikes, postponed from weekend.
  • February 28, 2026 (Today): Israel and US launch joint attack (Operation Roaring Lion) on Iranian targets, including nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, and energy infrastructure. Hardware: US B-52 bombers (deployed earlier for deterrence), Israeli F-35s; possible cyber elements. Iran responds by targeting US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia. Hardware: Ballistic missiles hitting ships (e.g., in Ashdod) and bases. Reports of Khamenei possibly killed. Strategy: US/Israel aim for regime change or severe weakening; Iran defends via regional strikes on US allies.
Unfolding Strategies on Both Sides
  • US-Israel Alliance: Coordinated attrition – short, decisive strikes evolving into sustained pressure to dismantle Iran's nuclear (90%+ enrichment halted in 2025 but resuming), missile (thousands depleted), and IRGC capabilities. Goal: Prevent nuclear armament and foster regime change (e.g., targeting leaders like Khamenei). Tactics: Air superiority, stealth tech, and intelligence (e.g., satellite-guided strikes). Trump administration views this as "preventing future war" by neutralizing threats, with openness to regime overthrow. Weakened proxies (Hezbollah/Hamas decimated) reduce Iran's leverage.
  • Iran's Side: Defensive retaliation with asymmetric escalation – missile swarms to overwhelm defenses, targeting US regional assets to divide alliances (e.g., Gulf states hosting bases). Strategy: Survive strikes, use proxies (if any remain), and leverage diplomacy (e.g., talks with China/Russia). Internal focus on succession amid leader deaths; symbolic attacks to rally domestic support.
How Long Might This Go?Based on patterns, this could resolve in days/weeks if a ceasefire holds (like 2025's 12 days), driven by economic pressures (oil disruptions) and mutual exhaustion. However, if Iran escalates regionally or rebuilds nuclear sites, it might prolong into months or a wider war involving proxies/allies (e.g., Houthis in Yemen). Trump signals quick wins, but attritional strategies suggest 6-12 months of intermittent strikes. Worst case: Indefinite low-intensity conflict persisting years, absent regime change or diplomacy.


Sequence of Events: Military Actions on February 28, 2026The following is a detailed chronological timeline of military actions between the US-Israel alliance and Iran on February 28, 2026, based on verified reports from news sources and real-time social media updates. Timestamps are standardized to UTC where possible (noting approximations due to varying source reporting; Iran local time is UTC+3:30, Israel UTC+2, US Eastern Time UTC-5). The conflict began with joint US-Israeli strikes (codenamed "Operation Roaring Lion" by Israel and "Operation Epic Fury" by the US) targeting Iranian nuclear, missile, military, and leadership sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel and US assets in the region. Casualties were predominantly on the Iranian side, with over 200 reported killed in Iran, including civilians and senior leaders. US and Israeli forces reported minimal damage and no fatalities. The strikes disrupted regional airspace, oil shipping (e.g., Strait of Hormuz closure), and internet in Iran.Pre-Dawn to Early Morning (Pre-06:00 UTC)
  • ~05:57 UTC (09:27 Iran local / ~00:57 ET): Initial explosions reported in Tehran, marking the start of visible strikes. Iranian media (Fars, Tasnim) described a series of blasts in central Tehran near University Street, Jomhouri area (close to IRGC headquarters), and northern Seyyed Khandan. Smoke rose from multiple sites, including near Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's offices and the presidential palace. Explosions also hit other cities: Isfahan, Qom, Tabriz, Karaj, Kermanshah, Ilam, and Lorestan province. Targets included nuclear facilities (e.g., Isfahan), ballistic missile sites, radar installations, air defenses, and leadership compounds. This was part of Israel's "pre-emptive attack" to neutralize threats, involving ~200 Israeli fighter jets (largest sortie in IAF history) striking ~500 targets in western and central Iran. US forces joined via aircraft from regional bases and carriers (e.g., F-35s, attack planes), conducting air and sea strikes. Seven missiles struck Khamenei's compound in Tehran, causing heavy damage; unconfirmed reports later suggested Khamenei was killed (body found in rubble per Israeli sources).
  • Casualties/Outcomes: Dozens killed in initial strikes, including at a girls' elementary school in Minab (southern Iran), where 51–85 students and staff died (Iranian Red Crescent: total Iranian deaths ~201, injuries ~747, including 85 civilians). Strikes also killed senior IRGC officials (e.g., Ground Force Commander Mohammad Pakpour, Aerospace Force Commander Aziz Nasirzadeh), Defense Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani, four Ministry of Intelligence officials, and others like Salah Asadi, Mohammad Shirazi, Hossein Jabal Amelian, and Reza Mozaffari-Nia. Khamenei's death reported by Israeli officials (unconfirmed by Iran; Foreign Ministry claimed he and President Masoud Pezeshkian were safe). Iran imposed internet blackout (connectivity at 4% normal) and airspace closure.
Morning (06:00–09:00 UTC)
  • ~06:15 UTC (01:15 ET): US Central Command (CENTCOM) officially initiates Operation Epic Fury, with strikes on Iranian military targets to disrupt retaliation capabilities. This included naval assets (e.g., IRGC frigate Jamaran and Imam Ali Navy Base in Chabahar).
  • ~06:30 UTC (09:30 Iran local / 08:30 Israel local / 01:30 ET): First major wave of Israeli airstrikes confirmed by IDF, targeting military, nuclear, and leadership sites across Iran. US President Donald Trump releases an 8-minute video on Truth Social (~07:30–08:15 UTC / 2:30–3:15 ET) announcing "major combat operations" as "massive and ongoing," aimed at destroying Iran's missile industry, navy, nuclear program, and proxy networks. Trump urged IRGC to surrender for amnesty (or face "certain death") and called on Iranians to overthrow the regime. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu followed with a video confirming joint strikes to eliminate Iran's "existential threat."
  • ~09:45 UTC: Second wave of strikes with heavier US involvement, targeting Isfahan nuclear sites and IRGC command centers.
Late Morning to Afternoon (09:00–15:00 UTC)
  • ~11:30 UTC (14:30 Iran local / 13:30 Israel local / 06:30 ET): Iran launches first retaliatory barrage ("Operation True Promise-4") – ~35 ballistic missiles (Emad, Ghadr, possibly Kheybar Shekan or Fatah-1) and drones toward Israel. Sirens activated nationwide in Israel; most intercepted by defenses (Iron Dome, Arrow). Minor damage: 89 civilians injured (3 directly), hits on a 9-story building in northern Israel (1 injured), Haifa, and Tel Aviv. No deaths in Israel from strikes.
  • ~12:45 UTC: Third wave of US-Israeli strikes on Tehran, damaging Khamenei's compound (satellite imagery confirms destruction). Israel targets high-ranking officials in a Tehran meeting.
  • ~12:55–13:30 UTC: Iran escalates retaliation, launching missiles and drones (e.g., Shahed-136) at US bases: Al Udeid (Qatar; intercepted, residential hit in Doha), Ali al-Salem (Kuwait; injuries at airport), Al Dhafra (UAE), Fifth Fleet HQ (Bahrain; explosions in Manama, smoke from radar hit), bases in Jordan (2 missiles downed, debris damage in Amman), Saudi Arabia (Riyadh/Eastern Province intercepted), Iraq (Jurf al-Sakhar PMF base hit, 2 killed/3 injured; Erbil airport/US consulate targeted, intercepted), and UAE (Dubai/Abu Dhabi explosions; Fairmont The Palm hotel fire, 4 injuries; 1 killed by debris). IRGC claims hits on 14 US bases; Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping. Debris from an Iranian missile fell in Suwayda, Syria, killing 4 civilians.
  • ~14:45 UTC: Israel announces neutralization of several high-ranking IRGC commanders in Tehran.
Afternoon to Evening (15:00–21:00+ UTC)
  • ~15:50 UTC: Massive smoke visible over Isfahan and Karaj from ongoing strikes (live videos).
  • ~16:00–19:00 UTC: Additional Iranian missile waves toward Israel (intercepted); Shahed drones downed over Syria. Israel declares nationwide emergency (schools closed, hospitals underground). Regional impacts: Airspace closures in Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Syria, UAE; airlines suspend flights. Houthis resume Red Sea attacks. Pro-regime protests in Iranian cities (Mashhad, Rasht, Tehran). Trump speaks with Gulf/NATO leaders; Netanyahu addresses nation claiming successes (e.g., Khamenei compound destroyed).
  • ~21:00 UTC onward (end of day): Iranian missile intercepted in Qatar (~21:32 UTC / 23:32 local? per video). Ongoing reports of strikes in Dubai (Palm Jumeirah residential areas hit, 4 injuries). Khamenei's death "confirmed" in some X posts (e.g., historical-style obituary). No ceasefire; strikes described as multi-day campaign.


Potential Trajectories for the US-Israel-Iran ConflictBased on the actions documented up to February 28, 2026—including the joint US-Israeli strikes under Operations Epic Fury (US) and Roaring Lion (Israel), which targeted Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, air defenses, naval assets, and leadership compounds, followed by Iran's retaliatory missile and drone barrages on Israeli cities and US bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Jordan—the conflict appears designed as a high-intensity but potentially limited campaign. However, its evolution depends on several variables: Iran's resilience, the success of strikes in degrading capabilities, regional ally involvement, and internal Iranian dynamics. Below, I'll analyze plausible scenarios, drawing from expert assessments, prediction markets, and real-time commentary. This is speculative, grounded in patterns from the 2025 "12-Day War" and current developments.Key Contextual Factors Shaping the Conflict
  • US-Israel Objectives: The strikes aim not just at punishment but at strategic dismantlement. President Trump has framed the operation as eliminating Iran's nuclear program (e.g., Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan sites hit with bunker-busters), missile arsenal, navy, and proxy support, while explicitly calling for regime overthrow. Israeli PM Netanyahu echoed this, accusing Iran of deceitful negotiations and positioning the attacks as enabling Iranians to "cast off the yoke" of the regime. This shifts from the 2025 war's focus on nuclear setback (which delayed but didn't destroy Iran's program) to broader regime disruption, including assassinations of IRGC commanders and potential Supreme Leader Khamenei (unconfirmed but reported killed).
  • Iran's Response and Capabilities: Iran's "Operation True Promise-4" involved ~35 ballistic missiles (e.g., Emad, Ghadr) and drones targeting Israel (mostly intercepted) and US assets (minor damage, e.g., debris in Doha, fires in Dubai). This mirrors 2024-2025 patterns: asymmetric retaliation to impose costs without full escalation. However, depleted missile stocks from prior conflicts and neutralized air defenses (e.g., S-300 systems destroyed) limit sustained offensives. Proxies like Houthis have resumed Red Sea attacks, but Hezbollah/Hamas remnants are weakened.
  • Broader Context: Failed Geneva talks (Iran rejected zero-enrichment demands; US offered minimal sanctions relief) triggered the strikes. Economic fallout (Strait of Hormuz closure, oil disruptions) and airspace shutdowns pressure all sides. No major allies joined US-Israel initially (a "duo of the willing"), but Gulf states host US bases, risking entanglement.
How Might This War Play Out? Explored ScenariosExperts outline three main paths, evolving from the initial air/missile exchanges. These build on the 2025 war's template (short, air-focused) but incorporate the current regime-change ambition.
  1. Short, Decisive Campaign Leading to Regime Collapse (Optimistic for US-Israel, 30-50% Likelihood per Predictions):
    • Description: US-Israel maintain air superiority (200+ Israeli jets, US B-52s/F-35s) for repeated strikes, destroying remaining nuclear/missile sites and leadership (e.g., IRGC HQs in Tehran). Iran, with internet blackouts and command disrupted, fails to mount effective counterstrikes. Internal unrest (pre-existing economic protests) escalates into uprisings if Khamenei/IRGC leaders are confirmed dead, fulfilling Trump's call for Iranians to "take over." No ground invasion; "Iranians are the boots on the ground."
    • Triggers: Quick degradation of Iran's defenses (already reported neutralized). Prediction markets give ~40% chance of regime fall by end-2026.
    • Outcomes: Ceasefire with Iran conceding (e.g., end enrichment), or transitional government. Benefits US (nuclear threat gone) but risks power vacuum exploited by radicals.
  2. Prolonged Attrition and Standoff (Most Likely, 40-60% per Experts):
    • Description: Strikes continue in waves (days to weeks), but Iran absorbs hits via dispersed assets and retaliates sporadically (e.g., more missiles on US bases, proxy attacks). Depleted US/Israeli interceptors (from 2025) force focus on ground destruction of launchers. Regional spillover: Gulf states pressure for end (e.g., via UNSC); oil prices spike, global economy suffers. No regime change; Iran rallies nationalists, suppressing protests as "traitorous."
    • Triggers: Failed quick kills on leadership; Iran rebuilds underground (as post-2025). Trump hesitates full war due to costs (prolonged, unpredictable).
    • Outcomes: Stalemate truce, like 2025; Iran weakened but defiant, resuming nuclear work later. Wider war risk if allies (e.g., Russia/China aid Iran) intervene diplomatically/militarily.
  3. Escalation to Regional or Broader War (Pessimistic, 10-30% Likelihood):
    • Description: If strikes drag on (>3 days), regional powers join (e.g., Saudi/UAE hit by Iran, demand US protection; Houthis expand Red Sea blockade). Iran mines Hormuz, spikes oil; US deploys ground forces (low odds, per markets). Worst: Nuclear threshold crossed if Iran nears breakout.
    • Triggers: High civilian casualties (e.g., 200+ Iranian deaths already) fuel rage; failed diplomacy.
    • Outcomes: Economic collapse, refugee crises; potential WW3 per fringe predictions (e.g., Nostradamus interpretations, though unsubstantiated). Trump signals "off-ramps" to avoid this.
How Long Might It Last? Could It Be Over in Two Weeks?Duration estimates vary but cluster around days to weeks, shorter than a full invasion (no boots planned). Trump indicated it could end in "two or three days" if Iran concedes, or longer for full takedown (weeks). US officials predict "a few days" ending in overthrow. Experts see 4-7 days for lighter campaign, up to weeks for sustained. Yes, over in two weeks is plausible if objectives (nuclear destruction, leadership decapitation) are met quickly—echoing the 2025 war's brevity. Economic pressures (oil, global markets) incentivize quick resolution; if not, it could drag months like attritional conflicts. Enough Time for Iranian Protesters to Emerge?A two-week window could suffice for protests if strikes create a leadership vacuum (e.g., Khamenei dead, IRGC fractured), allowing pre-existing unrest (economic collapse, 2025 protests) to boil over. US-Israel could support by striking IRGC mobilizations against crowds. However, bombing often rallies populations (e.g., youth around the flag), framing protests as treason. Reports of pro-regime rallies in Mashhad/Tehran suggest suppression; protests might emerge post-ceasefire if regime weakens, but risk being crushed during active war. Overall, a short war favors uprisings, but nationalism could delay them.



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