Saturday, October 17, 2020
Coronavirus News (283)
Coronavirus News (282)
Inside the Fall of the CDC How the world’s greatest public health organization was brought to its knees by a virus, the president and the capitulation of its own leaders, causing damage that could last much longer than the coronavirus. ........... a superspreader event in which 52 of the 61 singers at a 2½-hour choir practice developed COVID-19. Two died. .......... When the next history of the CDC is written, 2020 will emerge as perhaps the darkest chapter in its 74 years, rivaled only by its involvement in the infamous Tuskegee experiment, in which federal doctors withheld medicine from poor Black men with syphilis, then tracked their descent into blindness, insanity and death. ............ A vaunted agency that was once the global gold standard of public health has, with breathtaking speed, become a target of anger, scorn and even pity. .......... How could an agency that eradicated smallpox globally and wiped out polio in the United States have fallen so far? ....... the escalating tensions, paranoia and pained discussions that unfolded behind the walls of CDC’s Atlanta headquarters ......... battles that are as much about protecting science from the White House as protecting the public from COVID-19. It is a war that they have, more often than not, lost. ........... A shifting and mysterious cast of political aides and private contractors — what one scientist described as young protégés of Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, “wearing blue suits with red ties and beards” — crowded into important meetings about key policy decisions. ......... Veteran CDC specialists with global reputations were marginalized, silenced or reassigned — often for simply doing what had always been their job. Some of the agency’s most revered scientists vanished from public view after speaking candidly about the virus. ............. Theirs was the model other nations copied. Their leaders were the public faces Americans turned to for the unvarnished truth. They’d served happily under Democrats and Republicans. ......... Now, 10 months into the crisis, many fear the CDC has lost the most important currency of public health: trust, the confidence in experts that persuades people to wear masks for the public good, to refrain from close-packed gatherings, to take a vaccine. ....... what can happen when people lose confidence in the government and denial and falsehoods spread faster than disease. He called it the “bankruptcy of trust.” ....... Emails and calls bounced among the agency’s leaders ......... In the fierce chaos of Trump’s Washington, the CDC needed a streetfighter. Instead, it got “the nicest grandfather you can imagine” .......... the American public health system, which has been quietly gutted since the Great Recession. ......... years of federal and state cuts had left about 26,000 fewer employees at state, county and municipal health agencies since 2009 ........ In the secure, high-tech room where the CDC brain trust met, the mood turned dark as the scientists began to fear they were confronting a pandemic. .......... The lab official tried to contact a chief virologist at the China CDC who was usually helpful, but got no response. Neither did colleagues who reached out to Chinese scientists with whom they had collaborated for years. The Americans concluded that the regime in Beijing was telling them to keep quiet. .......... China was a hard target. Even U.S. spy agencies struggled to gather intelligence on the evolution of the disease. .......... “What the fuck are we paying for people to be in China if they can’t go where there’s an outbreak when there’s an outbreak” ............ His coverage of the SARS pandemic had helped shape his view of China as what he called “an expansionist totalitarian empire.” .......... The CDC, which had been the public face of the government during every health crisis in memory, soon became nearly invisible. After a few more briefings, a Pence aide told the agency’s media staff that this was the president’s stage, not theirs. ......... A friend of one CDC scientist ribbed him: “We keep waiting for the CDC to show up on a milk carton as a missing child.” ............... Trump countermanded science in a flurry of inaccuracies and dangerous advice, saying the virus would soon go away, theorizing about injecting disinfectant as a treatment, and dismissing recommendations about wearing a mask. .......... In contrast, South Korean officials gave near instantaneous approval to commercial labs, and they quickly began testing 10,000 people a day. ........... “There’s a four-foot gap at the top of the shower curtain that you bought from Home Depot — and you’re calling this a quarantine area?” ........ Trump flew to Atlanta for an impromptu tour of the CDC laboratories. Wearing a red “KEEP AMERICA GREAT” cap, Trump briefly praised the CDC’s tests as “perfect” and talked about the record high ratings for his recent appearance on Fox News. Asked by a reporter about cruise ships, the president said he preferred that the Grand Princess passengers remain on board because their arrival — even at a federal quarantine site — would cause a spike in U.S. case numbers. “I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship,” Trump told reporters. .............. At the same time as they were watering down Cetron’s criticism of the cruise industry, the White House and DHS were pushing him to invoke quarantine powers to stop a problem that barely existed: the spread of coronavirus by migrants trying to cross the U.S.-Mexico border. ............... border officials tested unaccompanied children seeking asylum — and expelled them even if their results were negative. ........ By April, the numbers were brutal. There were 608,000 cases of COVID nationwide. More than 26,000 people had died, about 10,000 of them in New York City, where the per capita death rate had surpassed Italy’s. ................ the agency had a “culture where petty rivalries between egos tend to subordinate the public good.” ........... the tough new policy would “convert a problem of incomplete data to a problem of invalid data.” ......... the 1918 flu pandemic that had infected a third of the world’s population, killing more than 50 million people ................ Obama was clear: All decisions had to be made quickly and grounded in the best available science. .......... “You know, Rahm,” Besser recalled him saying. “I don’t think it’s a good idea for you to be writing scientific guidance.” Cursing, Emanuel crumpled the paper in his fist, threw it aside and began eating his lunch. At a crucial moment, science prevailed. ......... One CDC official recalls seeing the July 8 tweet and sighing in defeat. “Come on, man, this is your team! You don’t have to tweet it like that! You can just pick up the phone and call Redfield!” ........... Everyone nitpicked the CDC’s subsequent proposals, records show — even Trump’s daughter Ivanka, who suggested granting paid sick leave to teachers and administrators at high risk for COVID-19 complications. ............. In a section that described the higher proportion of cases among Hispanic children, the White House counsel’s office wanted the CDC to add a reference to one of the president’s favorite bugaboos, the Mexican border. .......... The HHS unit was even critical of the suggestion that schools might need to close in areas where the virus was raging uncontrolled. ......... One of their prime tormentors was Michael Caputo, a political fixer handpicked by Trump himself to oversee communications at HHS. A proud protégé of convicted dirty trickster Roger Stone, Caputo had served as an adviser for Russian politicians, worked for Trump’s campaign and promoted conspiracy theories. Soon after arriving at HHS in April, Caputo began riding herd over CDC communications seen as conflicting with Trump’s political message. ................. She attracted the administration’s ire with her blunt assessments in media interviews.
Friday, October 16, 2020
Coronavirus News (281)
Hear people out (literally) people felt more connected to others after a phone call than those who chatted via email.
Research: Type Less, Talk More adding video to an “old-fashioned” phone call may not further increase our sense of connection to another person ........ Being able to see another person, in short, did not make people feel any more connected than if they simply talked with them. A sense of connection does not seem to come from being able see another person but rather from hearing another person’s voice. .......... a person’s voice is really the signal that creates understanding and connection. .......... Text-based interactions are sometimes simpler and more efficient and enable recipients to respond at their leisure. If you’re sending a simple message, a quick update, or an attachment, then emails and texts are the way to go. ......... take a little more time to talk to others than you might be inclined to. You—and those you talk to—are likely to feel better as a result.
The economy may never be the same
A Combative Trump and a Deliberate Biden Spar From Afar at Town Halls With less than three weeks left in the campaign, there was no sign that either candidate was diverging from the political tracks they laid down months ago. ........... President Trump spoke positively about an extremist conspiracy-theory group, expressed skepticism about mask-wearing, rebuked his own F.B.I. director and attacked the legitimacy of the 2020 election in a televised town hall forum on Thursday, veering far away from a focused campaign appeal. Instead, he further stoked the country’s political rifts as his Democratic opponent, Joseph R. Biden Jr., pushed a deliberate message anchored in concerns over public health and promises to restore political norms. ........... On the central issue of the election, the coronavirus pandemic, the two candidates appeared to inhabit not just different television sets but different universes. ......... Trump repeatedly declined to disavow QAnon, a pro-Trump internet community that has been described by law enforcement as a potential domestic terrorism threat ........... Trump improvising freely, admitting no fault in his own record and hurling various forms of provocation. .......... and briefly appeared to promise Ms. Guthrie that he would “let you know who I owe” money to ......... and at one point he delivered a kind of miniature filibuster by listing various properties he owns .......... “On the masks, you have two stories,” Mr. Trump said, claiming falsely that most people who wear masks contract the virus. ........ When Ms. Guthrie pointed out that the F.B.I. director, Christopher A. Wray, had said there was no sign of such widespread voter misconduct, the president shot back, “Then he’s not doing a very good job.” ...... The president has continued to predict that the virus will soon disappear, despite mountains of evidence to the contrary.
‘Long Covid’ Could Be A Cyclical Disease That Moves Around Body Systems, Report Finds The review found people to be suffering from a wide-range of symptoms, including those affecting mental health and fatigue, the brain, breathing, the cardiovascular system, the skin and the liver. The researchers say there may be four different syndromes that could be responsible for the symptoms: post-intensive-care syndrome, post-viral fatigue syndrome, long-term Covid symptoms and damage to the lungs and heart. Testimony from patients show ongoing Covid-19 to be a “cyclical disease,” with symptoms moving around the body and fluctuating in severity over time. An emphasis on acute Covid-19 symptoms, particularly respiratory issues, has led to difficulties in patients receiving treatment or recognition for “long Covid”, the researchers say. ................ for some people, Covid-19 infection is a long term illness
McConnell Won’t Support $1.8 Trillion White House Stimulus Bill—Even If Pelosi And Trump Make A Deal
Thursday, October 15, 2020
Coronavirus News (280)
Medieval Europeans didn’t understand how the plague spread. Their response wasn’t so different from ours now. When the new disease first arrived, little was clear beyond the fact that it killed with terrifying speed. Near-certain death trailed the first symptoms by four days or less. The doctors were helpless. This city was soon overwhelmed with corpses. Workers in church yards dug pits down to the water table, layering bodies and dirt, more bodies and dirt. ........... Seven centuries later, the plague in Europe stands as an example of a pandemic at its worst — .............. in both cases, the first instinct was to close borders to try to keep the disease at bay. When that didn’t work, officials called for strict rules — but only some people paid attention. All the while, there was a proliferation of conspiracy theories. Many tried to blame the disease on outsiders or minorities — in medieval Europe, often Jews. ............. “Much has changed since the 1340s ... but not human nature.” ............. daring dinner parties in which a host would gather 10 friends, with plans to reconvene again the next night. At the next dinner, Stefani said, sometimes “two or three were missing.” ........... many faced their last moments cut off from everybody else ........... People, after the onset of symptoms, were a mortal danger to those around them. So in some cases, family members abandoned sick loved ones, even children. Their deaths were noticed only when neighbors smelled the rotting corpses. ........... In 1348, she said, the city was in its own state of near-lockdown. The inns were closed. .......... People were panicked. It was unclear how the disease spread — but there was no doubt that proximity to others was a risk. Animals — oxen, dogs, pigs — were dying, as well. ............. They prayed and disavowed sin. They obsessed about the air and used scents and fires to ward off perceived deadly vapors. They were mostly guessing; scientists wouldn’t know what actually caused the plague — how the bacteria was spread by rats and fleas — until 500 years later. .................. At a time when people were trying to avoid the disease with trial-and-error strategies, only one thing seemed to work: If the plague arrived in your city, drop everything, flee the crowds and take refuge in the countryside. ............... All through the coronavirus pandemic, there have been accounts of people taking their own countryside flights to safety — New Yorkers decamping to the Hamptons, British urbanites seeking out holiday cottages. .................. But Cerrina Feroni said his ex-wife had already heard all of his stories many times over, and he had likewise heard all of hers. So instead, during pandemic lockdown in Fiesole, they watched Netflix.
Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Coronavirus News (279)
Coronavirus News (278)
MUSK: TESLA IS ROLLING OUT A BETA OF “FULL SELF-DRIVING” NEXT WEEK “I drive the bleeding edge alpha build in my car personally,” he added at the time. “Almost at zero interventions between home and work.” ....... According to Musk, the update will take the feature from 2D to “4D,” meaning that the vehicle will be able to not only sense the three-dimensional world around it, but also predict changes in factors like location, direction, and speed.
Why The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings Are Verging On The Absurd Modern Supreme Court confirmation hearings are empty theater, and Barrett’s is no exception. ........... She would likely vote to further dismantle Obamacare, uphold abortion limits that would make it impossible to get an abortion in some states, invalidate most regulations on guns and back corporations over individuals in most legal matters. She does not seem inclined to recuse herself from a case involving Trump’s election, even as the president has implied that he wants Barrett confirmed, in part, to rule in his favor if election-related issues reach the Supreme Court. ............. Barrett, if confirmed, would be to the ideological right of both Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh ..... polls show that a clear majority of Americans believe that the winner of the election should choose Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement ...... She didn’t say anything to annoy Republicans or win over Democrats. And, of course, that was the point.
Trump’s Chances Are Dwindling. That Could Make Him Dangerous. Every scientific poll we’ve seen had Trump losing the debate, some by narrow margins and some by wide ones. ........ John McCain, for instance, briefly pulled ahead of Barack Obama following the 2008 Republican convention, and Obama didn’t really solidify his lead until early October. .......... Hillary Clinton led by only 1.4 points in our national polling average heading into the first debate that year. ......... It’s been an exceptionally stable race. ...... In 2016, the polls did show Clinton ahead, but between tight margins in tipping-point states and the large number of undecided voters, there was a fairly high probability — around 30 percent, according to our forecast — that Trump was going to win anyway. ............ nothing intrinsically rules out a larger polling error. We had one in 1948 — when Dewey didn’t defeat Truman, after all — and in 1980, when Ronald Reagan won in an epic landslide instead of the narrow margin that polls predicted. ............. a 7-point Biden lead on Election Day could, indeed, turn into a 2-point Biden popular vote win where Trump narrowly wins the Electoral College. ....... But it’s about equally likely that a 7-point Biden lead could translate into a 12-point Biden win, in which he’d not only carry states like Georgia and Texas, but would also have a shot in South Carolina, Alaska and Montana. .......... Even a small probability that the U.S. could become a failed or manifestly undemocratic state is worth taking seriously. ........ Consider that Trump’s convention produced, at best, a very meager bounce in his favor. His attempt to pivot the campaign to a “law and order” theme fell completely flat in polls of the upper Midwest. He’s thrown the kitchen sink at Biden and not really been able to pull down Biden’s favorables. His hopes that we’d turn the corner on COVID-19 before the election are diminishing after cases have begun to rise again in many states. His campaign, somehow, is struggling to hold on to enough cash to run ads in the places it most needs to run them. The New York Times and other news organizations are likely to continue publishing damaging stories on his taxes and personal finances from now until the election. And now he’s seemingly lost the first debate. ......... If Trump intuits that he’s unlikely to win legitimately — it’s not hard to imagine him escalating his anti-democratic rhetoric and behavior. It’s also not hard to imagine this rhetoric further eroding his position in polls. ...... So we could be headed for a vicious cycle where Trump increasingly gives up on trying to persuade or turn out voters and voters increasingly give up on him.
How Trump Could Spark A Full-Blown Election Crisis
An Open Letter to Judge Amy Coney Barrett From Your Notre Dame Colleagues from what we read your confirmation is all but assured.
White House Embraces Covid-19 ‘Herd Immunity’ Declaration
White House embraces a declaration from scientists that opposes lockdowns and relies on ‘herd immunity.’ The White House has embraced a declaration by a group of scientists arguing that authorities should allow the coronavirus to spread among young healthy people while protecting the elderly and the vulnerable — an approach that would rely on arriving at “herd immunity” through infections rather than a vaccine. .......... about 85 to 90 percent of the American population is still susceptible to the coronavirus. ....... The Great Barrington Declaration, which argues against lockdowns and calls for a reopening of businesses and schools. .......... “The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.” ............ The document grew out of a meeting hosted by the American Institute for Economic Research, a libertarian-leaning research organization. .......... Sunetra Gupta and Gabriela Gomes, two scientists who have proposed that societies may achieve herd immunity when 10 to 20 percent of their populations have been infected with the virus, a position most epidemiologists disagree with. .......... What they found runs strongly counter to the theory being promoted in influential circles that the United States has either already achieved herd immunity or is close to doing so, and that the pandemic is all but over. That conclusion would imply that businesses, schools and restaurants could safely reopen, and that masks and other distancing measures could be abandoned.
New virus cases are trending upward in a majority of the states. Uncontrolled coronavirus outbreaks in the U.S. Midwest and Mountain West have strained hospitals, pushed the country’s case curve to its highest level since August and heightened fears about what the winter might bring. ............ the country’s trajectory is worrisome — and worsening. Many experts fear what could happen as cold weather encroaches on more of the country and drives people indoors, where the virus can spread more easily. ............ New cases are trending upward in 36 states, including much of the Northeast ........ Testing remains insufficient in much of the country.