Friday, October 02, 2020

Coronavirus News (249)

Trump sees approval rating increase, majority expect him to beat Biden: poll The poll was conducted in the two weeks before the first presidential debate  

'This was avoidable': Trump has been downplaying the virus from the start In recent weeks, Trump has put himself and others at risk by holding mass gatherings, some indoors, and shunning mask use while claiming the end of the virus was just around the corner.

Trump's tweet on positive coronavirus test is his most shared ever

Drudge Report, a Trump Ally in 2016, Stops Boosting Him for 2020 A rift between the president and the online news pioneer Matt Drudge is playing out in pithy headlines and needling tweets as the campaign heats up.

Bidenomics: the good the bad and the unknown Joe Biden should be more decisive and ambitious about America’s economy ..........  President Donald Trump set out to make it a brawl, even throwing a punch at the validity of the electoral process itself ......... When Mr Trump took power in 2017 he hoped to unleash the animal spirits of business by offering bosses a hotline to the Oval Office and slashing red tape and taxes. Before covid-19, bits of this plan were working, helped by loose policy at the Federal Reserve. Small-business confidence was near a 30-year high; stocks were on a tear and the wages of the poorest quartile of workers were growing by 4.7% a year, the fastest since 2008. Voters rank the economy as a priority and, were it not for the virus that record may have been enough to re-elect him. ............... The confrontation with China has yielded few concessions, while destabilising the global trading system. ........ As the 46th president, Mr Biden would alleviate some of these problems simply by being a competent administrator who believes in institutions, heeds advice and cares about outcomes. Those qualities will be needed in 2021, as perhaps 5m face long-term unemployment and many small firms confront bankruptcy. Mr Biden’s economic priority would be to pass a huge “recovery” bill, worth perhaps $2trn-3trn, depending on whether a stimulus plan passes Congress before the election. ............ He is keen on a giant, climate-friendly infrastructure boom to correct decades of underinvestment: the average American bridge is 43 years old. ....... Government research and development (r&d) has dropped from over 1.5% of gdp in 1960 to 0.7% today, just as China is mounting a serious challenge to American science. .......... He would scrap Mr Trump’s harsh restrictions on immigration, which are a threat to American competitiveness. ................. a $15 minimum wage, helping 17m workers who earn less than that today. .......... he has too little to say on boosting competition, including prising open tech monopolies. Incumbent firms and insiders often exploit complex regulations as a barrier to entry. .......... His plan to cut emissions involves targets, but shies away from a carbon tax which would harness the power of capital markets to reallocate resources. That is a missed opportunity. Just last month the Business Roundtable, representing corporate America, said it supported carbon pricing. ............... by 2050 public debt is on track to hit almost 200% of gdp 



Is Pakistan really handling the pandemic better than India? It appears to be, though the official data do not tell the whole story ........... According to both countries’ official tallies, every week of the past month has claimed more Indian lives than the entire nine months of the pandemic have in Pakistan—some 6,500. ....... Whereas India’s burden is still rising by 70,000 new cases a day, Pakistan’s caseload seems to have peaked three months ago. Its daily total of new cases has remained in the mere hundreds since early August. India’s economy has also fared far worse. The Asian Development Bank predicts that its gdp will shrink by fully 9% in the current fiscal year, compared with a contraction of 0.4% for Pakistan. ........... “We have not only managed to control the virus, stabilise our economy, but most importantly, we have been able to protect the poorest segment of our society from the worst fallouts of the lockdown,” crowed Imran Khan, Pakistan’s prime minister, in a recent video address to the un General Assembly. ...............  Rather than shut down the whole country, Pakistan adopted a piecemeal approach that focused on isolating areas where there were outbreaks and on providing cash handouts to the poorest. ............  Mr Khan’s supporters say this policy’s success was aided by the creation of a national command centre to co-ordinate regional policies and by enlisting the army, including its tentacular security apparatus, for contact-tracing efforts. Others say efficient redeployment of a national polio-eradication campaign provided more vital boots on the ground to combat covid. ............. “Basically, it is undertesting on a massive scale,” contends Ramanan Laxminarayan of Princeton University. He notes that Pakistan tests for covid at less than a quarter of India’s rate, per person, adding that the relatively poor Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, with a population equal to Pakistan’s and a similar failure to test widely, has also registered similar numbers of cases and fatalities (see chart). “Test not, find not,” says Mr Laxminarayan. “It’s the same with authoritarian regimes the world over.” ........  Just 4% of Pakistanis are over 65, for example, compared with 23% of Italians. Yet the median age in Pakistan, 23, is four years lower than India’s, and its average life expectancy, 67, is two years shorter. This puts a far smaller proportion of Pakistanis in the age bracket most vulnerable to covid. ........ Some 160m Indians travel by air annually compared with fewer than 10m Pakistanis; passenger traffic on Indian railways is 130 times greater. Mr Modi’s lockdown, ironically, first bottled tens of millions of migrant workers inside cities that were often reservoirs of covid and then, as pressure mounted to let them return to their villages, distributed the epidemic more widely. ............. the adb foresees India’s more sensitive economy springing back next year with 8% growth, whereas Pakistan’s is expected to grow just 2%. ...............  “Our lockdown may have hurt India more than the disease itself ............ A study in Islamabad in June estimated that 14.5% of the 2m people in Pakistan’s capital had already been infected ........ Health professionals warn that Pakistan, like its other big neighbour Iran, could soon find itself experiencing a second wave. ........ “At this point in time nobody should be crowing, and nobody should be declaring game over.”


Thursday, October 01, 2020

Coronavirus News (248)

 A Theory About Conspiracy Theories In a new study, psychologists tried to get a handle on the personality types that might be prone to outlandish beliefs. .......... More than 1 in 3 Americans believe that the Chinese government engineered the coronavirus as a weapon, and another third are convinced that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has exaggerated the threat of Covid-19 to undermine President Trump. ......... At its extremes, these theories include cannibals and satanic pedophiles, (courtesy of the so-called QAnon theory, circulating online); lizard-people, disguised as corporate leaders and celebrities (rooted in alien abduction stories and science fiction); and, in this year of the plague, evil scientists and governments, all conspiring to use Covid-19 for their own dark purposes. .............  People often adopt conspiracy beliefs as a balm for deep grievance. The theories afford some psychological ballast, a sense of control, an internal narrative to make sense of a world that seems senseless. ........ and a third addressed extremes, like narcissistic tendencies. (“I often have to deal with people who are less important than me.”) ............ The personality features that were solidly linked to conspiracy beliefs included some usual suspects: entitlement, self-centered impulsivity, cold-heartedness (the confident injustice collector), elevated levels of depressive moods and anxiousness (the moody figure, confined by age or circumstance). Another one emerged from the questionnaire that aimed to assess personality disorders — a pattern of thinking called “psychoticism.” ............ Psychoticism is a core feature of so-called schizo-typal personality disorder, characterized in part by “odd beliefs and magical thinking” and “paranoid ideation.” In the language of psychiatry, it is a milder form of full-blown psychosis, the recurrent delusional state that characterizes schizophrenia. It’s a pattern of magical thinking that goes well beyond garden variety superstition and usually comes across socially as disjointed, uncanny or “off.” .............. at a time like this, when people are worried about the virus, headlines like ‘Vitamin C Cures Covid’ or ‘It’s All a Hoax’ tend to travel widely. Eventually, these things reach the Crazy Uncle, who then shares it” with his like-minded network. ........... As for the bloodsucking, cartoon versions, those are likely to be keepers too, the new research suggests. They have a core constituency, and in the digital era its members are going to quickly find one another.

The Right’s Relentless Supreme Court Justice Picking Machine Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination is the fruit of decades of activity by a tightly organized network. .......... Armed with an originalist doctrine that enables subjective interpretation of the Constitution, and supported by a growing willingness to overturn precedent by jettisoning the principle of stare decisis (“to stand by things decided”), the Supreme Court will be able to knock down what remains of the liberal legal edifice constructed by the Warren Court from 1953 to 1969. .............. Judges purporting to engage in originalist analysis often project onto the Framers their own personal and political preferences. The result is an unprincipled and often patently disingenuous jurisprudence. There is no evidence, for example, for the claims advanced by originalists that the original meaning of the Equal Protection Clause prohibited affirmative action or that the original meaning of the First Amendment guaranteed corporations a constitutional right to spend unlimited amounts of money to dominate the election of public officials. Both of these claims, however, are central to today’s conservative constitutional agenda. .............  The elite constituency of conservative ideologues and rich donors that draws up the approved list of candidates to fill judicial vacancies does so behind closed doors with little transparency. ........ on Sept. 26, the network announced that it would spend “at least $10 million” in support of Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination. ....... the court is the least democratic of all institutions ..... with Barrett on the court it will be easier to find five potential votes to reverse Roe v Wade ....... To overturn Roe v. Wade, the majority would have to explain why overruling the decision is consistent with stare decisis. Justice Thomas and Judge Barrett have written about how stare decisis itself can violate the Constitution ........... No other nominee to the court, Marcus continued, has openly endorsed views as extreme as Barrett’s on the doctrine of stare decisis, the principle that the court should not lightly overrule its precedents. In a series of law review articles, Barrett makes clear that in matters of constitutional interpretation, she would not hesitate to jettison decisions with which she disagrees. .......... Taking Amy Coney Barrett at her word makes clear that she would feel quite free to reconsider Roe v. Wade. This is a very big deal. I doubt anyone on Trump’s short list would hesitate to overrule, but not everyone on the list is as transparent about it. ........... conflict can also have an integrative function and “prevent the ossification of the social system by exerting pressure for innovation and creativity.”  

Hong Kong Is China, Like It Or Not  Something had to be done, and the Chinese authorities did it. The scale and frequency of antigovernment protests has now subsided — thanks to a national security law for Hong Kong promulgated in Beijing on June 30. ...... Several prominent democracy advocates have since announced their retirement from politics, disbanded their parties or fled the city. ....... Last year’s prolonged unrest dented Hong Kong’s reputation as one of the best places in the world in which to do business. ....... For now, despite all the jitters, about 28 people have been arrested under the law. And only one person has been charged — for secession and terrorism: a 23-year-old man accused of driving a motorbike into police officers and displaying a banner that read “Liberate Hong Kong, Revolution of Our Times.” His case is being dealt with in accordance with due process and our criminal laws. ........ One person’s “severe” is someone else’s intended effect. ........ I see little chance of any compromise being reached between the authorities in Beijing and the democratic camp in Hong Kong, be it about the right to elect directly the chief executive or any other major matter. From Beijing’s point of view, democratic development in Hong Kong has brought about nothing but chaos, polarization and anti-China sentiment. .......... Under the Basic Law, Hong Kong is a special administrative region that enjoys a “high degree of autonomy” — which, by definition, means not complete autonomy, a point I labor to explain to foreign officials and politicians. Any attempt to alter Hong Kong’s formal political status and turn the city into a de facto independent political entity, or to otherwise free it of Beijing’s control, is a fundamental challenge to China’s sovereignty. .......... A realistic goal for Hong Kong ought to be remaining the freest and most international city in China and retaining its unique international status, thanks to the city’s many bilateral agreements with foreign countries and its membership in numerous international organizations. .......... Foreign governments should not benchmark what happens in Hong Kong against standards that prevail in Western countries; those are governed by a political system entirely different from China’s. Instead, they should benchmark Hong Kong against the rest of China, and measure how the city can maintain its unique characteristics — openness, a commitment to personal rights and freedoms, respect for the rule of law and the ability to reinvent itself economically. Beijing’s national security law is saving “one country, two systems” by ensuring that Hong Kong does not become a danger to China. 







5/8/23 Update: Goshen (NY) puts Third World corruption to shame, thanks to greedy, corrupt, unethical lawyers like Andra Dumais. ..... I toppled a Third World dictator and German Radio called me Robin Hood On The Internet. I am not going to get intimidated by some small-town racist. Andrea Dumais is a small-town racist. ....... You are treating me worse than the people 2,000 years ago..... The Soviet bureaucracy of a judicial process.

The Social Dilemma


The Social Dilemma’ Review: Unplug and Run This documentary from Jeff Orlowski explores how addiction and privacy breaches are features, not bugs, of social media platforms. ......... That social media can be addictive and creepy isn’t a revelation to anyone who uses Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and the like. But in Jeff Orlowski’s documentary “The Social Dilemma,” conscientious defectors from these companies explain that the perniciousness of social networking platforms is a feature, not a bug. .......... the manipulation of human behavior for profit is coded into these companies with Machiavellian precision: Infinite scrolling and push notifications keep users constantly engaged; personalized recommendations use data not just to predict but also to influence our actions, turning users into easy prey for advertisers and propagandists. ........ men and (a few) women who helped build social media and now fear the effects of their creations on users’ mental health and the foundations of democracy. They deliver their cautionary testimonies with the force of a start-up pitch, employing crisp aphorisms and pithy analogies. ......... Russia didn’t hack Facebook; it simply used the platform. ........ fictional scenes of a suburban family suffering the consequences of social-media addiction. There are silent dinners, a pubescent daughter (Sophia Hammons) with self-image issues and a teenage son (Skyler Gisondo) who’s radicalized by YouTube recommendations promoting a vague ideology. ............ the movie’s interlocutors pin an increase in mental illness on social media usage yet don’t acknowledge factors like a rise in economic insecurity. .......... many suggest that with the right changes, we can salvage the good of social media without the bad ......... two distinct targets of critique: the technology that causes destructive behaviors and the culture of unchecked capitalism that produces it. ......... the incursion of data mining and manipulative technology ....... The movie is streaming on Netflix, where it’ll become another node in the service’s data-based algorithm.



I think there is a solution. And the solution is to treat all data gathered around an individual to be the property of that individual. Companies may monetize that data, but the individual keeps the big chunk of the earning. The establishment of proper property rights might also be the antidote to the culture mindless data collecting. The data can fund the UBI, or Universal Basic Income, I think. 

One step could be the formation of a T100, the top 100 tech companies in the world by market cap. That T100 would voluntarily establish the data rights. It might be a 70-30 split in favor of the individual. 

 ‘The Social Dilemma’ Will Freak You Out—But There’s More to the Story    Dramatic political polarization. Rising anxiety and depression. An uptick in teen suicide rates. Misinformation that spreads like wildfire. The common denominator of all these phenomena is that they’re fueled in part by our seemingly innocuous participation in digital social networking. But how can simple acts like sharing photos and articles, reading the news, and connecting with friends have such destructive consequences? ............... the way social media gets people “hooked” by exploiting the brain’s dopamine response and using machine learning algorithms to serve up the customized content most likely to keep each person scrolling/watching/clicking. ........  “Every single action you take is carefully monitored and recorded,” says Jeff Siebert, a former exec at Twitter. The intelligence gleaned from those actions is then used in conjunction with our own psychological weaknesses to get us to watch more videos, share more content, see more ads, and continue driving Big Tech’s money-making engine. .............  For the first few years of social media’s existence, we thought it was the best thing since sliced bread. Now it’s on a nosedive to the other end of the spectrum—we’re condemning it and focusing on its ills and unintended consequences. The next phase is to find some kind of balance, most likely through adjustments in design and, possibly, regulation. .......... The issue with social media is that it’s going to be a lot trickier to fix than, say, adding seatbelts and air bags to cars. The sheer size and reach of these tools, and the way in which they overlap with issues of freedom of speech and privacy—not to mention how they’ve changed the way humans interact—means it will likely take a lot of trial and error to come out with tools that feel good for us to use without being addicting, give us only true, unbiased information in a way that’s engaging without preying on our emotions, and allow us to share content and experiences while preventing misinformation and hate speech. ................ “While we’ve all been looking out for the moment when AI would overwhelm human strengths—when would we get the Singularity, when would AI take our jobs, when would it be smarter than humans—we missed this much much earlier point when technology didn’t overwhelm human strengths, but it undermined human weaknesses.”

Coronavirus News (247)

With Cross Talk, Lies and Mockery, Trump Tramples Decorum in Debate With Biden Interrupting Joe Biden nearly every time he spoke, President Trump made little attempt to reassure swing voters about his leadership. Mr. Biden hit back: “This is so unpresidential.”

MBS: The Rise to Power of Mohammed bin Salman The portrait of MBS that emerges from the book resembles no one so much as the brash young man who took power in Libya in 1969: Muammar al-Qaddafi, who initially presented himself as an ambitious modernizer but who went on to spend the next 40 years destroying his own country and spreading mayhem throughout the world.

A Foreign Policy for the Day After Trump Reimagining—not Restoring—the Liberal International Order  ......... the new administration may be tempted to restore, rather than reimagine, U.S. foreign policy in the hope of reversing four years of damage to the liberal international order. But a Biden White House will also field calls from both sides of the political aisle for a military and an economic retreat on the grounds that U.S. security is best served by making the country more self-sufficient and reducing its global ambitions. ......... The country has a narrowing window in which to reconfigure its foreign policy to ensure that it remains mighty even though it is no longer the uncontested superpower. ........ The current period of disruption and turmoil presents the greatest world-ordering opportunity since the end of the Cold War—and perhaps since World War II. The United States must lead in turning the present destruction into a moment of creation. ...........  an epochal global pandemic has revealed that international institutions are threadbare and multilateral cooperation is elusive ............ An open world is one in which states are free to make independent political decisions; international waters, airspace, and space remain accessible to military and commercial traffic; and countries cooperate informally and through modernized international institutions. The United States should accept the reality that its rivals, such as China, are stronger than they once were and will have greater influence, but Washington must resist any attempts to establish spheres of dominance—whether territorial or technological—that are impermeable to outside commercial, military, or diplomatic access. That means opposing the efforts of hostile nations to dominate their regions, subvert the political processes of independent states, and close off vital waterways, airspaces, or information spaces. ............  Achieving an open world does not, however, require the United States to dominate all prospective military or political challengers, as it did in the post–Cold War era. ........... The United States should collaborate with its allies and partners to modernize international institutions, such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), and prevent closed societies like China’s from exploiting the openness of others, particularly when it comes to intellectual property and digital trade. The United States should also develop new institutions or regimes in undergoverned areas, such as cyberspace, in which Washington has a clear interest in setting open norms and rules. Authoritarian great powers will certainly compete to try to shape the future global order. But the United States and its partners must keep authoritarians from dominating beyond their borders, thereby ensuring that the world remains accessible and interdependent. ................  Such competition is already evident in areas subject to rapid technological change and few clear rules, such as Internet governance and artificial intelligence. China and Russia prefer a governance model that establishes state control over information. ............. Together with partner states, technology firms, and civil society groups, Washington should work to set down rules for data storage, privacy, cybercrime, and hacking. ...........  Autocracies may respond by developing “splinternets,” in which nations or blocs of nations cordon off flows of information. .........  An international order is similarly vital in confronting such existential threats as climate change and global pandemics. The United States should rejoin the Paris climate accord and lobby other major emitters to unite in embracing new and ambitious domestic climate goals. These additional commitments should be transparent and enforceable, allowing Washington to monitor the implementation of environmental measures and confront cheaters with economic sanctions. The United States must also return to the World Health Organization, working to reform and strengthen it. Washington should belatedly demonstrate leadership in the global response to COVID-19 by sharing vaccines and critical supplies with partners, and it should work with the G-7 to manage follow-on economic shocks and with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to provide economic relief to the developing world. ...............  foreign policy cannot be made by the Defense Department alone. The United States must revitalize the State Department and rebalance national security spending toward diplomacy and development. To make an open world, the United States needs a well-funded and expert diplomatic corps to manage ties with small and middling powers while engaging with great-power rivals. .................  Washington should envision success as the defense of U.S. interests without having to resort to war. ........... If the United States fails to assume this mantle of leadership, succumbing either to nostalgia for the post–Cold War order or to introverted nationalism, it will find itself utterly ill equipped for the world a decade from now.

How ‘Rage’ Challenged Bob Woodward He has covered nine presidents over 50 years, making him perhaps the country’s most enduring chronicler of the Oval Office. His latest is yet another best seller, drawing praise and criticism along the way.  .......  In his 50 years as a journalist, he has written 20 books and covered nine presidents. .......  At either end of his long bibliography are two of the most divisive American presidents in generations: Richard Nixon and Mr. Trump. ....... “When his performance as president is taken in its entirety, I can only reach one conclusion: Trump is the wrong man for the job.” ........ Mr. Woodward stood out at the newspaper for his tidy appearance. Newsrooms can be sloppy places, but Mr. Woodward was always neatly dressed. He was extremely polite, almost obsequious, Mr. Downie said, and he kept a toothbrush and toothpaste in his desk. .......... he always tries to schedule at least four hours for interviews, which often take place over a meal or coffee at his house, where he has lived since 1976. But if a source is dodging his calls, he’ll still show up on their doorstep — he likes to joke that 8:17 p.m. is the best time to drop by. ........... He estimates he has 200 cardboard boxes, kept in temperature controlled storage, that are filled with records going back to when he worked for the Montgomery County Sentinel. 

For a President Who ‘Needs to Touch the Flame,’ Bob Woodward Was Irresistible President Trump gave 18 interviews to the famed Watergate journalist, gambling that he could control the narrative. Instead, he undermined himself shortly before an election. .......... Why give so much access to a journalist who made his reputation taking down a president during Watergate? And the answer is: because he is Donald Trump. He has infinite faith in his ability to spin his own story. He is forever seeking approval and validation from celebrity and establishment figures like Mr. Woodward. And as much as he likes to excoriate the “fake news,” he is drawn irresistibly to the spotlight. ...............  “He’s profoundly addicted to public attention and the media is his vehicle for making sure he gets it. His view is he can live with negative coverage and positive coverage. He can’t live with no coverage. So he constantly puts himself in the cross hairs.” ........ “He always needs to touch the flame.” ........ Mr. Woodward has enjoyed access to the Oval Office that few journalists of his generation have. ........ “Instead of just sitting down for an interview, Trump treated a reporter famous for bringing down a president like his personal sounding board. It is truly one of the most stupidly self-destructive communications decisions made by a politician in memory.” .......... Indeed, Mr. Trump called Mr. Woodward at night when aides presumably were not around. He gave Mr. Woodward a phone number so that the author could call in and leave a message to have him call back without going through the elaborate bureaucracy that a presidential interview involves in a normal White House. ............ At one point, according to the book, when Melania Trump walked in, the president boasted, “Honey, I’m talking to Bob Woodward.” ........... “It actually reflects how deeply insecure he is about his own self-worth.” ............ “Bob Woodward is somebody that I respect, just from hearing the name for many, many years, not knowing too much about his work, not caring about his work,” Mr. Trump told reporters at a news briefing. “But I thought it would be interesting to talk to him for a period of calls.” “I did it out of curiosity,” he added, “because I do have respect and I want to see, I wonder whether or not somebody like that can write good. I don’t think he can, but let’s see what happens.” 

5 Takeaways From ‘Rage,’ Bob Woodward’s New Book About Trump Mr. Woodward reveals that President Trump sought to play down the severity of the coronavirus and repeatedly denigrated the U.S. military. ............... President Trump described his chemistry with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, to the journalist Bob Woodward, saying: “You meet a woman. In one second, you know whether or not it’s going to happen.” ............  Mr. Woodward wrote that he was stunned when the president said of South Korea, “We’re defending you, we’re allowing you to exist.” ....... Mr. Woodward pointed out that both he and Mr. Trump were “white, privileged” and asked if Mr. Trump was working to “understand the anger and the pain, particularly, Black people feel in this country.” Mr. Trump replied, “No,” and added: “You really drank the Kool-Aid, didn’t you? Just listen to you. Wow. No, I don’t feel that at all.”  

How to Keep the Coronavirus at Bay Indoors  Tips for dodging the virus as Americans retreat from colder weather: Open the windows, buy an air filter — and forget the UV lights.  .............  as winter approaches and temperatures drop, people will spend more time indoors, where the coronavirus is more easily transmitted ...... Southern states, for example, saw a spike in infections when the temperatures soared this summer, prompting people to remain inside with the air-conditioners humming.  ..... In poorly ventilated indoor settings, like most restaurants and bars, the virus can remain suspended in the air for long periods and travel distances beyond six feet ....... “Soap and water work beautifully.” .......  the optimal strategy is simply to wear a mask indoors ....... If possible, open your windows ..... “Everybody is inundated right now with the shiny new solutions that are being sold to them,” Dr. Allen said. “And the reality is, it’s a time for the basics.”

Time to shift focus to the maritime sphere Beijing is neither keen on ending the ongoing border stalemate nor reinstating the status quo with India as of March 2020. The peaceful India-China Line of Actual Control in the Northeast is now a thing of the past with China pushing back New Delhi’s claims on Aksai Chin and New Delhi defending against Beijing’s expansive territorial claims and their slow but aggressive implementation. China has crossed the red line with India and India’s LAC with China is not going to be the same ever again: It is the beginning of a long, bitter winter in the Himalayan borders between the two Asian giants. ............. the intensity of the China-Pakistan containment strategy against India today is unprecedented ......... To begin with, New Delhi must seek ways to break up the ‘nutcracker situation’ that the Pakistani and Chinese strategies have forced India into. ......... unlike in the continental sphere where India seems to be hemmed in by China-Pakistan collusion, the maritime sphere is wide open to India to undertake coalition building, rule setting, and other forms of strategic exploration. ............ the country is located right at the centre of the Indo-Pacific geopolitical imagination, in the midst of the oceanic space spanning “from the shores of Africa to that of the Americas” ......... The Euro-American interest in India’s land borders with Pakistan and China is negligible ..........  Germany recently released its Indo-Pacific guidelines following the example of France which brought out its Indo-Pacific strategy last year. ..... the maritime space is a lot more important to China than engaging in opportunistic land grab attempts in the Himalayas, thanks to the massive Chinese trade that happens via the Oceanic routes and the complex geopolitics around the maritime chokepoints which can potentially disrupt that trade. ........ New Delhi must use its Indo-Pacific engagements to dissuade Beijing from salami-slicing Indian territory in the high Himalayas. ............ The Asian geopolitical chessboard awaits bold moves by New Delhi.

Imperatives after India’s September virus peak  After having peaked in the middle of this month, COVID-19 infections could continue till March before turning endemic ......... For every laboratory-diagnosed infection, there were 80 to 100 undocumented infections in the country. ..........  India’s total burden of infection was between 480 million and 600 million. .......  In India’s population of 1,380 million, the proportion infected — in other words the herd immunity — was in the range of 35% and 43%. Since about 30% herd immunity is sufficient to reach the peak of the epidemic curve, we can be confident that India indeed has reached the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic. ............ By simple arithmetic we can foresee some 20-25 million infections annually. .......  Our epidemic began in mid-March and peaked after six months, in mid-September. So it is reasonable to assume that the epidemic will continue for a further six months, until mid-March 2021, before it turns endemic. ...... the risk of severe disease and death will remain among senior citizens and those with chronic diseases. Vaccination is the ready answer to prevent death in these vulnerable subjects. ............ These steps, large-scale total antibody testing and vaccine delivery for those who are antibody negative will entail expenses that must be accommodated in the budgetary allocation for health. They can be more than recovered by the liberation of the economy from COVID-19 constraints. 

On the Quad, define the idea, chart a path The Chinese, however, labelled it as an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It became evident years later that the real reason for China’s hyperreaction was out of concern that such a grouping would “out” China’s plans for naval expansion by focusing on the Indo-Pacific maritime space. China was hoping that its naval build-up might slip under the radar because the Americans were distracted by continental challenges including Russia, Afghanistan and Iran, and would not look sea-ward. .......... The Chinese are skilled at obfuscation. ..........  “A ‘broader Asia’ that broke away geographical boundaries is now beginning to take on a distinct form.”


A new dimension: On India-U.S.-Australia-Japan Quadrilateral  While India continues to engage China diplomatically, and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh have spoken of the importance of a resolution through talks, there is no doubt that an outcome of the tensions will be a strengthening of India’s ties with global powers such as the U.S., as well as formations like the Quad. ............ India is the only Quad member not already tied in a treaty alliance with the others 


Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Coronavirus News (246)

Urban design explained: the signs, the symbols, the mysterious objects, and why LED panels have replaced the glow of neon Cities surround us with arcane signs, symbols and objects of unsuspected meaning, says American radio producer Roman Mars in his new book The 99% Invisible City Mars provides an offbeat guide ‘to decoding the built world’ 

Indo-Pacific strategy gains support as China’s assertiveness fuels fears More nations will be prompted to join US initiative because of Beijing’s behaviour in the region, according to analyst He cites threats to freedom of navigation and overflight, coercive actions against Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, and ‘Wolf Warrior diplomacy’ .......... Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy is seen by Beijing as an effort to rally powers like India and Japan against China’s rise in the region ........ the US-led quadrilateral grouping with Japan, Australia and India, known as the Quad, has repeatedly called for rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing has called the alliance “an anti-China front line”.   


US seeks formal alliance similar to Nato with India, Japan and Australia, State Department official says Washington’s goal is to get countries in the Indo-Pacific region to work together as a bulwark against ‘a potential challenge from China’, says the US official He says the four nations are expected to meet in Delhi sometime this autumn ........... even Nato started with relatively modest expectations and a number of countries [initially] chose neutrality over Nato membership ......... the group of four nations were expected to meet in Delhi sometime this autumn and cited Australia’s possible participation in India’s Malabar naval exercise as an example of progress towards a more formal defence bloc. .......... The naval exercises, taking place mostly in the Bay of Bengal, have been run annually by the US and India since 1992, and have included Japan since 2015. ........... Washington would like to see South Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand to eventually join an expanded version of the quad 

Why is Germany wading into the Indo-Pacific’s strategic waters? Berlin’s relationship with Beijing is founded on economics and trade but now the European giant is taking a bigger interest in the region on the other side of the world Among the main concerns is the South China Sea, an area at risk of becoming a flashpoint ....... Germany’s new Indo-Pacific policy suggests that it is reassessing its relationship with China ....... Germany’s relationship with China has long centred on economics and trade but now that is expected to encompass geopolitical interests and human rights.  

Amy Coney Barrett and the New, Old Anti-Catholicism Critics of Trump’s Supreme Court nominee argue that pious Catholics are a problem for liberalism. They have a point. ........ liberal theorists have long recognized that it’s risky to tolerate notions and movements that could undermine liberal democracy itself. In the case of religious tolerance, liberals have historically grappled with the matter of Roman Catholicism. ............  Roman Catholicism does not readily distinguish between public and private moral obligations. ............ the options of Catholic judges hearing capital punishment cases, which the state permits but the church forbids. Judge Barrett and her co-author maintain that Catholic judges must or should recuse themselves from such cases, concluding that “judges cannot — nor should they try to — align our legal system with the Church’s moral teaching whenever the two diverge. They should, however, conform their own behavior to the Church’s standard.” ........... Catholic hospitals have found themselves embroiled in court battles for refusing to perform or even discuss abortions, regardless of state or federal law. ......... religions whose ethics conflict with the broader culture will shift toward forming small, dense enclaves, where they are unlikely to encounter legal challenges to their preferred practices. 

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, Meet Donald Trump Over the past five days, we learned a lot about the president and his powers. ........ Trump’s businesses have usually lost money hand over fist ....... “the dogma lives loudly within you.” ...... the Kavanaugh hearings only helped Republicans expand their Senate majority in 2018 ........ Barrett is certainly a way, way more sympathetic character than Kavanaugh was. At this point it’s hard to imagine her being blocked. ....... with this new, 6-3 conservative majority they can wave goodbye not only to abortion rights, but also a ton of other things including protection against gender discrimination and any aggressive federal attempt to beat back climate change. .......... Biden has to win so he might have a chance to appoint Clarence Thomas’s eventual successor and bring the Court back to a 5-4 balance. ......... Trump has spent so much time painting his opponent as a senile idiot ........  All Biden has to say is, I’m Joe, two plus two is four and 10 times 10 is one hundred, I love my wife, I’m not going to declare war on anyone’s suburb, my economic plan is to cut taxes on the middle class, build a faster Acela and declare the Trump hotel in Washington a toxic-waste dump, I won’t blow up the world and I’m definitely not Donald Trump. Argument over. ........ I’d rather have a president who might sometimes get a bit confused than one who deliberately sows confusion. I’d rather lose more of my paycheck in taxes under Biden than lose more of my democracy in demagogic deceit under Trump. ..........  I’ll take Biden’s Medicare expansion over Trump’s repeal of protection for people with pre-existing conditions.   



Monday, September 28, 2020

Coronavirus News (245)

The Secret To Cultivating A Productive Team From Home  a daily or weekly “PIES” check-in with your teammates. ........... During the check-in, each person rates their PIES (i.e., physical, emotional, intellectual, and sleep quality) on a scale of 1-5. Along with their number, the person provides a quick reason why their score is what it is (e.g. my child was crying all night and I didn’t get any sleep). ........ In order to instill an inclusive and empathetic culture, it’s critical that teams establish regular points of communication. With new projects or teams, there should be regular kickoff/introduction meetings. .........  Distance makes it easier to leave room for miscommunications, misalignments, and silently growing bitterness. .......... eating together virtually. 

World-Class Finance Skills That Can’t Be Automated Integrity is at the core of every world-class finance organization. ......... Empathy allows us to better understand our customers, employees, partners, and the greater good. 

COVID-19 can affect the heart

The China-Laos railway: a way out of poverty or a white elephant in waiting?  A complete default could see China taking ownership of the entire asset, as happened with Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port, also funded by the Export-Import Bank of China. ......... China’s train manufacturers and railway contractors have been exporting their expertise since completing the country’s first overseas high-speed railway, in Turkey, in 2014. Encouraged by cheap labour and the promise of speedy construction and a reliable product, countries across Africa and Asia have been rolling out rivers of China-backed rail. .........  China is now Laos’ biggest investor ......... an official from Laos’ Finance Ministry predicted the loan would land the country with a bill of US$3 billion in interest payments alone, based on rates of 2 per cent per annum over 30 years. ...... a project moulded more in China’s short-term interests than in Laos’s long-term interest ....... The ADB says Asia will require US$1.7 trillion of infra­structure investment a year until 2030. ........... For good or bad, that train has already left the station.

Why the US dollar is only going to fall faster and harder Given the unprecedented erosion of domestic savings, an explosive current account deficit, and the Fed determined to keep rates flat, expect the dollar to plunge by as much as 35 per cent next year ......... Is the world seeing the end of the aura of American exceptionalism that has given the dollar Teflon-like resilience for most of the post-World War II era? ........ The US dollar slide has entered the early stages of what looks to be a sharp descent, having already fallen by 4.3 per cent in the four months ending in August in terms of its real effective exchange rate ......... the dollar remains the most overvalued major currency in the world. .........  the end of the aura of American exceptionalism ........ The confluence of an unprecedented erosion of domestic savings and the current-account deficit is nothing short of staggering. ......... For the first time since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, the net national savings rate has entered negative territory, at minus 1 per cent in the second quarter. And it did so at speed .......... The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act featured US$1,200 relief cheques to most Americans and a sharp expansion of unemployment insurance benefits. This boosted the personal savings rate to an unheard-of 33.7 per cent in April but this quickly receded to 17.8 per cent in July ........... Like the savings collapse, the current-account dynamic is unfolding in ferocious fashion. .........  Driven by the explosive surge in the federal budget deficit this year and in the next, the collapse of domestic savings and the current-account implosion should unfold at near-lightning speed. ......... Don’t expect the Fed, focused more on supporting equity and bond markets than on leaning against inflation, to save the day. The dollar’s decline has only just begun.


Why the US dollar slide may be a sign of real danger this time The rare event of a general depreciation of the world’s leading currency suggests a fundamental lack of faith that could sink financial markets and undermine the global economy Recent events suggest the dollar could erode from within as the US retreats from international obligations and its domestic economy weakens ........... Dollar depreciation could, as some suggest, simply reflect the fact that financial managers everywhere are “rotating” out of the US currency in search of yield as real or inflation-adjusted returns on dollar securities hit zero or even negative levels. ...............  confidence in currencies and faith in them as measures of value and as mediums of exchange cannot survive the idea that their supply is virtually endless. .......... Central banks have enabled governments to finance fiscal stimulus to the tune of US$11 trillion during the pandemic, pushing total government debt to US$70 trillion .......... many things could fall with the dollar, from global reserves and trade, to banking and financial transactions and commodities. ....... The US could be the biggest loser. The exorbitant privilege it enjoys because the dollar is the global currency means the US does not face balance-of-payments crises while it imports in its own currency. But the dollar world could go the same way as the sterling area, into obscurity. 


Sunday, September 27, 2020

Coronavirus News (244)

मधेशको समस्या समाधान गर्ने जसपासँग स्पष्ट दृष्टिकोण छैन : सरिता गिरी


‘अब पनि प्रभावकारी ढङ्गले जान सकेनौँ भने देशमा अप्ठ्यारो स्थिति आउँछ’ कम्युनिस्ट पार्टीको नेतृत्वमा सरकार बनेपछि ‘केही पनि भएन वा सम्पूर्ण भयो’ भनेर प्रचार गर्नु सही छैन : प्रचण्ड, नेपाल कम्युनिष्ट पार्टी (नेकपा) का कार्यकारी अध्यक्ष
राजनीतिक षड्यन्त्र र भारतको दबाबको शिकार बनेका रामराजा प्रथम गणतन्त्रवादी नेतालाई राष्ट्रपति हुनबाट रोक्न यसरी भएको थियो चलखेल
केपी ओली गणतन्त्र विरोधी हुन्, प्रचण्ड पनि संविधानसभाको पक्षमा थिएनन् सङ्घीय संरचना, शासकीय स्वरूप, नागरिकता लगायतका कुरा अपूर्ण छन् : डा भट्टराई  
‘ओली राजमा जनताबाट निर्वाचित जेलमा, पराजित संसदमा हुँदो रहेछ’ नक्साबाट नेपाली भूमि उडाउनेहरू नै आज फेरि फिर्ता ल्याउँछु भनिरहेका छन् : राजेन्द्र महतोसँगको अन्तरवार्ता
कहाँ चुक्यो नेपालको संविधान ? संविधान जलाउने र दीपावली मनाउनेबीचको द्वन्द्व यो संविधान रहुन्जेल ज्यामितीय हिसाब बढेर जाने देखिन्छ

Cost Of Racism: U.S. Economy Lost $16 Trillion Because Of Discrimination, Bank Says  Since 2000, U.S. gross domestic product lost that much as a result of discriminatory practices in a range of areas, including in education and access to business loans ........ Citigroup estimates the economy would see a $5 trillion boost over the next five years if the U.S. were to tackle key areas of discrimination against African Americans. ............. $13 trillion lost in potential business revenue because of discriminatory lending to African American entrepreneurs, with an estimated 6.1 million jobs not generated as a result $2.7 trillion in income lost because of disparities in wages suffered by African Americans $218 billion lost over the past two decades because of discrimination in providing housing credit And $90 billion to $113 billion in lifetime income lost from discrimination in accessing higher education 


Economists are growing more worried about the recovery. Blame Congress slashed its fourth-quarter US gross domestic product growth forecast in half to just 3% on an annualized basis because of the deadlock in Washington. That would mark an extreme deceleration from the rapid growth economists are predicting for the third quarter, when Goldman expects US GDP to grow at an annualized pace of 35%. ........... another 870,000 Americans filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week, a level that's four times higher than before the pandemic. ......... Failure to get a stimulus deal will cause a "meaningful hit" to disposable income in the fourth quarter, causing it to drop to pre-pandemic levels ......... "On the aggregate level for the whole economy, we could be seeing a clear slowing down of what was supposed to be a fast rebound" .......... widespread distribution of a vaccine to the full population" will happen by the second quarter of 2021, instead of the first quarter.   

Tesla's value drops $50 billion as Musk's promised cheaper battery three years away  Investors had expected two significant announcements at Musk’s oft-touted “Battery Day”: The development of a “million mile” battery good for 10 years or more, and a specific cost reduction target -- expressed in dollars per kilowatt-hour -- that would finally drop the price of an electric vehicle below that of a gasoline car. Musk offered neither. ............... Tesla expects to eventually be able to build as many as 20 million electric vehicles a year. This year, the entire auto industry expects to deliver 80 million cars globally. Building an affordable electric car “has always been our dream from the beginning of the company” ...... price parity, or the point at which electric vehicles are equal in value to internal combustion cars, is reached when battery packs cost $100 per kilowatt hour (kWh). Tesla’s battery packs cost $156 per kWh in 2019