Coronavirus News (229)

 Why Is the Stock Market So Strong When the Economy Is Weak?  the U.S. economy shrank 31.7% in the April-June quarter .........  the apparent disconnect between the stock market and the economy ........  we may have situations “where the stock prices may predict something that is going to be different from what we see right now.” .........  “What the Fed is doing right now is unprecedented,” he continued. The Fed has continued on the trajectory of low interest rates since mid-2019, but also pressed on with its “quantitative easing” approach to inject liquidity into the financial system, which it had used in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. “In recent months, it is not only doing the traditional quantitative easing of buying treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, but also continuing to buy other assets like corporate bonds, which is something that the Fed has not done before.” .............  The prices of assets are “mechanically pushed up” by the Fed’s act of purchasing them .......... the stock markets are factoring in expectations that the U.S. economy will rebound 20% or more in the current third quarter, with the lifting of lockdowns and resumption of modest economic activity in many parts of the country. ............  the stocks that are doing very well – Google, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix – haven’t been hurt that much by the current economic conditions. Some of them maybe have benefited from them. They are very dominant in the stock market, but they are not necessarily representing the economy as a whole ............... small businesses have no access to the stock market…. You see they are closing down. They are firing people, and so on, but you don’t see any reflection of those particular businesses in the stock market. .............  part of what’s going on is the fact that stock prices are forward-looking, so maybe they are seeing something optimistic. But it could be that they are missing some negative signals, and maybe those negative signals will come back to hit the market soon ............ Amid all those liquidity infusions are worries that the federal debt will balloon to unmanageable proportions ..............  The stock market is a prediction machine in the short term, a weighing machine in the long term. ........ I’m expecting the black swan style blow up to make the current pandemic and civil unrest look like a vacation.   

Ventilator Maker: We Can Ramp Up Production Five-Fold

America Is Going Hungry

Experts warn U.S. covid-19 deaths could more than double by year’s end  The global death toll from the coronavirus pandemic could triple by year’s end, with an additional 1.9 million deaths, while a fall wave of infections could drive fatalities in the United States to 410,000 ......... cooler, drier weather and increased time spent indoors could boost viral transmission in the Northern Hemisphere surge this fall and winter — something typically seen with other respiratory viruses. ..........  The best-case scenario is 288,381 deaths and worst-case is 620,029 ....... The scenarios pivot on human behavior and public policy. The best-case scenario would result from near-universal mask-wearing and the maintenance of social distancing and government mandates limiting the size of indoor gatherings. The worst-case scenario assumes that people and their communities stop taking precautions. 

Coronavirus News (228)

Harvard Astronomers Propose That Our Star System Used to Be Binary "The Sun's long-lost companion could now be anywhere in the Milky Way."

Scientists: Probe Center of Uranus, You’ll Hit Some Weird Water "In such exotic physical conditions, we cannot think of ice as we are used to." .......  This “superionic water” is not quite solid, nor is it a liquid — it’s somewhere in between. Hydrogen atoms roam freely, while the oxygen molecules are locked in a “crystalline lattice.” That’d also mean that electrical conductivity of the water inside the cores is much higher than initially thought — suggesting that these unusual ice cores could have a great effect on the planets’ magnetic fields.

6 Small Steps for Handling the Emotional Ups and Downs at Work 

Past vaccine disasters show why rushing a coronavirus vaccine now would be 'colossally stupid'

Look out Amazon, Walmart+ is here

Is 2020 the year of the career pivot?

The case for a six-hour workday

Bracing for the 'real recession'  Economists are warning about a looming recession-within-the-recession, as more temporary layoffs become permanent and long-term unemployment rises. One economist told Axios "the U.S. economy is transitioning from a depression to a recession and not a recovery."

CDC: 94% of Covid-19 deaths had underlying medical conditions

Paradise lost: How Hawaii went from Covid-19 star to cautionary tale The state's infection surge shows the risk of complacency, say local officials who fault the governor for neglecting basic public health measures.........  Hawaii’s control of the coronavirus has swiftly unraveled this summer, transforming what was the nation’s best-performing state into one of the worst. .............  Now the state, once hailed as a Covid-19 success story, has become a cautionary tale for other parts of the country that are preparing to open schools and loosen economic restrictions as infection rates come down. .............  the state's worsening outbreak is a stark reminder that this virus will easily exploit gaps in defenses .............. Ige’s administration said the seeds of the current outbreak were planted over the July Fourth weekend, when residents flocked to crowded beaches and many ignored pleas to wear masks.  

CDC to states: Ready vaccine distribution for November The CDC and HHS “are rapidly making preparations to implement large-scale distribution of the Covid-19 vaccines in the fall of 2020." ....... Federal health officials are urging states to get ready for coronavirus vaccine distribution by Nov. 1 ......... But it's unclear if any vaccine could be ready by Nov. 1, just two days before Election Day. ......... However, that timeline appears more optimistic than the one set by vaccine-makers. Three pharmaceutical companies have recently entered the final stage of clinical trials, which can take months. Definitive results about whether the shots work aren't expected until the end of the year.    

Coronavirus News (227)

Joe Biden faces pressure to separate China trade policy from Donald Trump’s in US election Americans feel more negative about China than ever before, yet healthy trade ties with the world’s No 2 economy remain surprisingly popular among US voters Biden faces challenge in differentiating his China trade policy from Trump’s, with ex-White House aides expecting tactical changes rather than an overhaul ............  a record 73 per cent of Americans now hold an unfavourable view on China, yet 51 per cent want to broker a strong economic relationship with America’s greatest modern-day rival. ..........  On China, the common theme has been the need to compete on some fronts and cooperate on others, stopping short of the zero sum view of trade policy that has defined Trump’s approach. ..........  A recent Biden proposal to “rebuild US supply chains”, which name-checked China 10 times, with Russia the only other country named (three times), emphasised this fact. .............  expect China to test Biden on trade early on, perhaps discarding the phase one trade deal – which Green described as “the bamboo deal because it is Chinese on the outside and hollow on the inside” – then gauging the new president’s response. .............   When campaigning for the Democratic nomination, he said that “America’s farmers have been crushed by [Trump]’s tariff war with China”, adding that Trump “thinks his tariffs are being paid by China. Any beginning econ student at Iowa or Iowa State could tell you that the American people are paying his tariffs”. ..............  Biden would almost certainly be more predictable than Trump. He would seek to rebuild alliances with scorned partners, at a time when China has fallen out with Australia, India, Canada and is struggling to make progress on an investment treaty with Europe ...........  even from a Chinese perspective. Trump is destroying America, but he is destroying China too – he is destroying the whole world … so it is not good for China in the long run

China to overtake US as world’s top economy in 2032 despite Washington hostilities, state think tank predicts Report is based on prevailing assumptions in Beijing that China’s economic rise is unstoppable Development Research Centre of the State Council suggests that feuds with United States will continue to intensify over the next five years

China could weaponise drug exports to retaliate against US chip restrictions, Beijing adviser says High-profile economist Li Daokui says Beijing could restrict drug exports to the US if the Trump administration was to cut China’s access to semiconductors Washington has been ratcheting up attacks on Chinese tech firms, including starving Huawei of components made by American companies

China’s wish to end US dollar dominance is unlikely to come true with no genuine challenger in the wings Washington’s moves to sanction both Chinese and Hong Kong officials over the national security law and Xinjiang have highlighted the power of the US dollar The US dollar has remained the dominant currency since the 1940s, with the euro and the yuan lagging behind in terms of global foreign exchange reserves

US-China decoupling: does clash of ideologies raise too many non-negotiables? Live with us peacefully, China’s envoy Cui Tiankai has challenged Washington – but some argue coexistence is expected to be on Beijing’s terms American opposition to China on ideological grounds makes its position equally entrenched.........  The world’s two biggest economies are still doing business with each other, but on nearly every other front, from political systems to human rights, territorial boundaries and technology development, they are in an increasingly vocal conflict. .............  “Is the United States ready to live with another country with a different history, different culture, maybe different system, but with no intention to compete for global dominance with the United States?” .............  “Are you ready to live with us in peace?” ...........  “We have to keep in mind that the Chinese Communist Party [CCP] regime is a Marxist-Leninist regime,” he said. “General Secretary Xi Jinping is a true believer in a bankrupt totalitarian ideology. “It’s this ideology that informs his decades-long desire for global hegemony of Chinese communism. America can no longer ignore the fundamental political and ideological differences between our countries, just as the CCP has never ignored them.” ...........  “For China, the idea of the two countries living together in peace could equate to annexing Taiwan, absorbing Hong Kong, repressing Xinjiang and denying maritime claims of US allies and partners in the East and South China Seas” .............  “Ambassador Cui’s speech, though couched in diplomatic language, is at the same time bullying, insisting that the US accommodate China regardless of Beijing’s inappropriate behaviour, rather than identify ways that China and the US can alter behaviour together to change the paradigm,” he said. “So long as China continues on its current path, the prospects for improved relations are dim, regardless of who is in the White House in 2021.” ..........  “Cui’s statement perfectly captures the Chinese view that it is time for the US to accommodate a powerful country with a different political, economic and values system.”   

Chinese President Xi Jinping says Marxist political economy is the bedrock for nation’s growth The ‘dominant position of public ownership cannot be shaken’, general secretary of Chinese Communist Party says In an ever-changing global environment, steering the economy into the future will be a major test for the party, Xi says ............  China’s Marxist political economy will continue to adapt to the ever-changing domestic and international environment, but must remain the bedrock on which the nation builds its future ..........  steering the economy into the future would be a major test for the party, he said ..... Xi dismissed suggestions that China’s Marxist political economy was outdated, saying it allowed markets to play a decisive role in the allocation of resources but also enhanced the role of the government. .........  US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last week said America viewed the threat posed by China as “much more difficult” to counter than the one presented by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. .........  Many capitalist countries had suffered economic downturns, unemployment problems, increased polarisation and deepening social conflicts, he said.    

Mike Pompeo says Chinese threat may be worse than ‘Cold War 2.0’ US Secretary of State urges Czechs to stand up to Beijing like they did to Soviets Pompeo raises prospect of Chinese world domination on first stop of five-day Central Europe trip ........... “The CCP is already enmeshed in our economies, in our politics, in our societies in ways the Soviet Union never was.” ......... Pompeo slammed China for its repression of the Hong Kong protests and called Beijing’s repression of Uygur Muslims “the human rights stain of the century,” charging that it was “sustained by companies like Huawei, using technology that the secret police could have only dreamed of”. ...... But Babiš was non-committal. He expressed disappointment that China had invested so little in the country, saying: “With all due respect to our American investors, I want more investments from China.”

Coronavirus News (226)

How the US uses the dollar payments system to impose sanctions on a global scale The US dollar’s global dominance gives Washington a powerful tool that it uses to enforce sanctions on people, institutions and countries The decoupling of the world’s two largest economies has raised concerns about the United States deploying the ‘nuclear option’ of freezing China’s banking sector out of the global US dollar payments system   ........  The US’ ability to exploit the US dollar payment system began during the administration of former president Bill Clinton (1993-2001) and expanded under subsequent administrations. ..........  Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela and, to a lesser extent, Russia. ..........  Last month, the US imposed sanctions on several Chinese government firms and officials, citing ties to alleged human rights abuses against ethnic minorities in restive Xinjiang. Most notably, the sanctions hit Chen Quanguo, a member of China’s Politburo, the centre of power within the Communist Party. ..............   the US Clearing House Interbank Payments System (Chips). Chips forms the primary settlement network for large-value domestic and international US dollar payments. ..............  the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) – the world’s largest electronic payment messaging system ............  Although it does not settle transactions, the Belgian-based SWIFT network connects 11,000 banks and companies globally, for sending messages about financial transactions. Among its 25-board membership, the US has two seats and the chairmanship, while China has one seat. ............... US-China interdependence is so extensive .............  The Cross-border Interbank Payment System, the Chinese payment system for yuan settlements, processed 135.7 billion yuan (US$19.5 billion) worth of daily transactions last year – less than 2 per cent of the daily volume in the US’ Chips clearing system.   

US dollar at risk of sudden collapse? Ex-IMF official warns ‘blow-up event’ could sink currency as debt mounts A fresh stimulus package worth at least US$1 trillion could spell relief for millions of Americans in pandemic, but could raise financial stability risks US Federal Reserve’s aggressiveness in easing financial conditions has succeeded in halting a further decline in the US economy, but that could change if major companies start going bankrupt ......... “The concern isn’t whether the US dollar will see an accumulated decline of 30 per cent in the future, but whether there will be a blow-up event that causes a sudden loss of confidence in the US dollar, and its market to collapse,” said Zhu, who is currently head of the National Financial Research Institute at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ...................  “So, the question of whether there will be a financial crisis will depend on whether a major company will be the next to go bankrupt, and thereby result in a jump in the corporate default ratio, leading to a sovereign debt crisis,” Zhu said. The US became the lender of choice for many countries that were willing to buy US-dollar-denominated bonds. This provided the US with what’s been dubbed an “exorbitant privilege” to run with soaring public deficits and debt, as international funds have chased the safe-haven status of US dollars and assets during times of turmoil. ....................  “Past an unknown critical threshold, [using monetary policy to deal with public deficit] could see the collapse of US dollar currency hegemony as people lose faith in it,” Every said. “All systems can only be pushed so far. Does the world still want a US-dollar-centric system if US dollars are openly printed to fund the state spending that drives the external deficit?” .................  The US dollar has been the world’s leading currency since 1919, when it overtook the pound in the aftermath of World War I.   

China keen to work with ‘US states, local councils, businesses’ despite Washington’s hostility, Xi Jinping says President Xi Jinping is keen to de-escalate rising tensions with Washington and ensure American companies continue to do business with China China has had close ties with states on the west coast of the US, while purchases of agriculture products have also boosted interactions with Midwest farm states

China’s economic future is being influenced by nine economists, but what did they tell Xi Jinping this week? Chinese President Xi Jinping met with nine prominent economists this week to help with the development of the 14th five-year plan for 2021-25 which is due next year Each of the economists has advocated specific policies that could shed light on Beijing’s policy priorities in the years ahead .........  China’s economy grew by 6.1 per cent in 2019, the lowest growth rate since political turmoil ravaged the country in 1990, before shrinking 6.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 after the coronavirus shut down large swathes of the country. It avoided a recession after its economy grew by 3.2 per cent in the second quarter, the first major economy to show a recovery from the damage caused by the coronavirus. ...........   Wang was the driving force behind the nation’s strategically emerging industries plan. As early as 2012, he put forward his countrywide competition idea under which Beijing should marshal the country’s entire pool of state, market and social resources to pursue industrial and technological leadership..........  In one recently published article, Zhang said China must uphold the rules of the World Trade Organisation and seek an open and multilateral trade system to challenge the unilateralism being pursued by the US. .............  China will rely more on itself but it will not close itself up