Wednesday, August 12, 2020

Coronavirus News (205)

U.S.-China relations are under 'unprecedented' strain, says Chinese ambassador to the U.S. He also accused the U.S. of fueling tensions in the South China Sea by sending ships to the region: "This is really raising the risk of a conflict."

conceptual illustration

The problems AI has today go back centuries Algorithmic discrimination and “ghost work” didn’t appear by accident. Understanding their long, troubling history is the first step toward fixing them. .......  “decolonise artificial intelligence”—to reorient the field’s work away from Western hubs like Silicon Valley and engage new voices, cultures, and ideas for guiding the technology’s development. .............  Though historical colonialism may be over, its effects still exist today. This is what scholars term “coloniality”: the idea that the modern-day power imbalances between races, countries, rich and poor, and other groups are extensions of the power imbalances between colonizer and colonized. ............   algorithms built to automate procedures and trained on data within a racially unjust society end up replicating those racist outcomes in their results ...........  Many former US and UK colonies—the Philippines, Kenya, and India—have become ghost-working hubs for US and UK companies. The countries’ cheap, English-speaking labor forces, which make them a natural fit for data work, exist because of their colonial histories. ..........  the British Empire’s historical treatment of its colonies as laboratories for new medicines and technologies. ...........  developed countries continue to disproportionately benefit from global norms shaped for their advantage, while developing countries continue to fall further behind. ............  “AI for good” or “AI for sustainable development” initiatives are often paternalistic. They force developing countries to depend on existing AI systems rather than participate in creating new ones designed for their own context. ...........   there’s really no such thing as “unintended consequences”—just consequences of the blind spots organizations and research institutions have when they lack diverse representation ..........  participatory machine learning, which seeks to involve the people most affected by machine-learning systems in their design    

Trump's threatened TikTok ban could motivate young users to vote, some say “If it hasn’t already, I think this will definitely be a gamechanger in young voters going out and voting for sure,” one user said. 

Coronavirus unemployment: Who is covered, how to apply and how much it pays With no end in sight to the COVID-19 crisis, here's everything you need to know

Chinese state media slams U.S. as a ‘rogue country’ for its planned ‘smash and grab’ of TikTok

Inside Baltimore's human trafficking industry Survivors of sex trafficking and those who investigate it in the city share their stories.......  The "white L", as it is known, enjoys access to public transportation, bike lanes, and quality grocery stores. The majority Black neighbourhoods, meanwhile, are plagued by urban blight; dotted with boarded-up abandoned houses. These neighbourhoods experience gun violence paired with police brutality, including the now infamous 2015 murder of a 25-year-old Black man named Freddie Gray. .........   At more than 20 percent, Baltimore city's poverty rate is around double the national average. Maryland itself, in contrast, consistently ranks as one of the wealthiest states in the country in regards to average income and economic opportunity. Some of the country's wealthiest people live in a state whose largest city is plagued by poverty. .............   Baltimore has one of the highest rates of human trafficking cases in the country. Washington, DC - just 64km (40 miles) away - is believed to have the highest rate. .............  Poverty, in general, is a vulnerability that we need to address if we're going to address trafficking. ..............  "They approach you like mother figures. They approach you in the nicest way. [But] ... you have to know that it's not for free." ...........  The National Center for Missing and Exploited Children, a non-profit, estimates that one in six of all missing children is a victim of human trafficking. .........  Heroin, in particular, has devastated the city since as early as the 1960s, and Baltimore was once dubbed the heroin capital of the United States. ..................   Now, much of that heroin has been replaced by the cheaper and even more deadly fentanyl, but the high rates of addiction and overdoses continue. Baltimore, today, has one of the highest overdose fatality rates in the country. .............  sometimes traffickers pick victims up directly off the streets. ........... traffickers often use addiction to manipulate their victims. .......  Some cities are destinations for human traffickers, and some are sources of trafficking victims, but Baltimore is both. .........  labour trafficking can be harder to detect because the victims are often immigrants who are reluctant to report the abuse. .......... Law enforcement and others in the city are learning, however, that trafficked women and children are victims and survivors, not criminals. ..........  "I went from 'nail them and jail them' to seeing the girls in prostitution as victims."   

Russia to roll out coronavirus vaccine within two weeks: Live Greece records highest daily tally; New Zealand's biggest city back to lockdown; Germany skeptical over Russian vaccine.  ........  The WHO has not received enough information on the Russian COVID-19 vaccine to evaluate it  

Democrats report coronavirus relief progress as McConnell says he is prepared to support a deal




Coronavirus News (204)


Winter is coming: Why America’s window of opportunity to beat back Covid-19 is closing  The good news: The United States has a window of opportunity to beat back Covid-19 before things get much, much worse. The bad news: That window is rapidly closing. And the country seems unwilling or unable to seize the moment. ................   Unless Americans use the dwindling weeks between now and the onset of “indoor weather” to tamp down transmission in the country, this winter could be Dickensianly bleak, public health experts warn. ............  November, December, January, February are going to be tough months ..........  “We seem to be choosing leisure activities now over children’s safety in a month’s time. And I cannot understand that tradeoff.” .................   an important chance to wrestle the virus under control is being lost, as Americans ignore the realities of the pandemic in favor of trying to resume pre-Covid life. .............. “The best time to squash a pandemic is when the environmental characteristics slow transmission. It’s your one opportunity in the year, really, to leverage that extra assistance and get transmission under control” ............  transmission among 20-somethings will eventually lead to infections among their parents and grandparents, where the risk of severe infections and fatal outcomes is higher. (Young people can also develop long-term health problems as a result of the virus.) .............  without an all-in effort “the cases are not going to come down,” he warned. “They’re not. They’re just not.” 

Covid Winter illo


I’m a Nurse in New York. Teachers Should Do Their Jobs, Just Like I Did. Schools are essential to the functioning of our society, and that makes teachers essential workers.

What Lockdown 2.0 Looks Like: Harsher Rules, Deeper Confusion Melbourne, Australia’s second-largest city, is becoming a case study in handling a second wave of infections. There are lots of unanswered questions. ............  The new lockdown is the product of early success; the country thought it had the virus beat in June. But there was a breakdown in the quarantine program for hotels. Returning travelers passed the virus to hotel security guards in Melbourne, who carried the contagion home. ..............   A confounding matrix of hefty fines for disobedience to the lockdown and minor exceptions for everything from romantic partners to home building has led to silenced streets and endless versions of the question: So, wait, can I ____? ................   “Our politicians are as scared as we are, but they have to pretend like they have a better idea than we do of what’s going to happen next.” ............  With success against the virus as fleeting as the breeze, the new waves of restrictions feel to many like a bombing raid that just won’t end. ...............   Schools in some cities are opening and closing like screen doors in summer. ............    Officials have been flummoxed at every turn by the persistent complacency of just enough people to let the virus thrive and multiply. .................    almost nine out of 10 people with Covid-19 had not been tested or isolated when they first felt sick, Mr. Andrews, the state’s top leader, said in late July. And 53 percent had not quarantined while waiting for their test results. ..................   the virus can be suppressed only if more than 70 percent of the population abides by social distancing guidelines and other public health rules. ................  A door-knocking campaign to check in on 3,000 people who had Covid-19 found that 800 of them were not at home. All 800 have been referred to the Victoria police for investigation. The fine for violators going forward, he said, will be 4,957 Australian dollars, $3,532. ....................   Walking to get groceries, Peter Barnes, 56, said he welcomed the stricter rules, though he admitted his city was starting to feel like George Orwell’s “1984,” with the heavy hand of the state around every corner. ..................   “You can’t hire a corpse. Very bad employment prospects for people who are dead.”   




Coronavirus News (203)

तराईमा अब लकडाउन गरे पनि नियन्त्रण हुँदैन, यही तालले काठमाडौंमा पनि ‘डिजास्टर’ हुन्छ : डा. अनुप बास्तोला

 New Evidence Suggests Young Children Spread Covid-19 More Efficiently Than Adults

A Second Coronavirus Death Surge Is Coming There was always a logical explanation for why cases rose through the end of June while deaths did not.

Tombstones of varying size in front of a green graph

A Vaccine Reality Check So much hope is riding on a breakthrough, but a vaccine is only the beginning of the end.  .......  Nearly five months into the pandemic, all hopes of extinguishing COVID-19 are riding on a still-hypothetical vaccine. And so a refrain has caught on: We might have to stay home—until we have a vaccine. Close schools—until we have a vaccine. Wear masks—but only until we have a vaccine. During these months of misery, this mantra has offered a small glimmer of hope. Normal life is on the other side, and we just have to wait—until we have a vaccine. ............  the media’s blow-by-blow coverage of vaccine trials. Each week brings news of “early success,” “promising initial results,” and stocks rising because of “vaccine optimism.” But a COVID-19 vaccine is unlikely to meet all of these high expectations. The vaccine probably won’t make the disease disappear. It certainly will not immediately return life to normal. ........................  Biologically, a vaccine against the COVID-19 virus is unlikely to offer complete protection. Logistically, manufacturers will have to make hundreds of millions of doses while relying, perhaps, on technology never before used in vaccines and competing for basic supplies such as glass vials. Then the federal government will have to allocate doses, perhaps through a patchwork of state and local health departments with no existing infrastructure for vaccinating adults at scale. ...........  20 percent of Americans already say they will refuse to get a COVID-19 vaccine, and with another 31 percent unsure, reaching herd immunity could be that much more difficult. ............   Scientists have gone from discovery of the virus to more than 165 candidate vaccines in record time, with 27 vaccines already in human trials. Human trials consist of at least three phases: Phase 1 for safety, Phase 2 for efficacy and dosing, and Phase 3 for efficacy in a huge group of tens of thousands of people. At least six COVID-19 vaccines are in or about to enter Phase 3 trials, which will take several more months. ............  Without the measures that have beat back the virus in much of Europe and Asia, there will continue to be more outbreaks, more school closings, more loneliness, more deaths ahead. A vaccine, when it is available, will mark only the beginning of a long, slow ramp down. And how long that ramp down takes will depend on the efficacy of a vaccine, the success in delivering hundreds of millions of doses, and the willingness of people to get it at all. It is awful to contemplate the suffering still ahead. ............  “Nobody wants to hear it’s not just right around the corner.” ............  “The primary benefit of vaccination will be to prevent severe disease,” says Subbarao. A COVID-19 vaccine is unlikely to achieve what scientists call “sterilizing immunity,” which prevents disease altogether. ...............   An initial vaccine might limit COVID-19’s severity without entirely stopping its spread. Think flu shot, rather than polio vaccine. ............   Moderna, an American company, is conducting its Phase 3 trial in the U.S. A group based at the University of Oxford, which is collaborating with the U.K.-headquartered biotech company AstraZeneca, is running trials in Britain, Brazil, and South Africa—the latter two countries chosen specifically because of their high numbers of COVID-19 cases. ...................  The leading COVID-19 vaccine candidates rely on technology that’s never been used before in approved vaccines. Moderna’s vaccine, for example, is a piece of RNA that encodes a coronavirus protein. Oxford and AstraZeneca’s vaccine attaches a coronavirus protein to a chimpanzee adenovirus. Neither has been manufactured before on the necessary scale. ..........  Right now, Operation Warp Speed is also awarding contracts to make the millions of syringes and glass vials needed to package a COVID-19 vaccine. Without careful planning on these fronts, the U.S. could run into a demoralizing scenario where vaccines are available, but there is no way to physically get them to people. .............   When vaccines are approved, 300 million doses will not be available all at once, and a system is needed to distribute limited supplies to the public. This is exactly the sort of challenge that the U.S. government has proved unprepared for in this pandemic. ............  Some of the leading COVID-19 vaccine candidates could also pose new logistical challenges, if they require storage at temperatures as low as –80 degrees Celsius or multiple doses to be effective. In fact, a COVID-19 vaccine is quite likely to require two doses; the first primes the immune system, allowing the second to induce a stronger immune response. Officials would have to balance giving one dose to as many people as possible with giving a second dose to those who already had one. “That was a complication we didn’t face in 2009, and we were so grateful” ................  the Department of Defense may also get involved in vaccine distribution. “We continue to ask CDC these many, many questions. And they don’t know” ..........   If the pandemic so far is any indication, a vaccination program is likely to take place against a backdrop of partisanship and misinformation. Already, conspiracy theories are spreading about a COVID-19 vaccine, some of them downright outlandish. ...............   even a vaccine might not get the country to herd immunity if too many people refuse it. ............  “I think the question that is easy to answer is, ‘Is this virus going to go away?’ And the answer to that is, ‘No,’” says Karron, the vaccine expert at Johns Hopkins. The virus is already too widespread. A vaccine could still mitigate severe cases; it could make COVID-19 easier to live with. The virus is likely here to stay, but eventually, the pandemic will end.

Illustration of praying hands, surrounded by syringes


A Triangular Ticket

 

If you did not hear what AOC had to say about that yahoo from Florida, you have been hiding under the rocks. If Donald Trump's mother can come over from Scotland, AOC's mother can come over from Puerto Rico, why not? And Puerto Rico is not even a foreign country. If you think it is, the Pacific is a lake near Chicago. AOC is slated to speak like Obama spoke in 2004, except the country already knows AOC. This political supernova has her signature on the bedrock of the Democratic platform. That was two years ago. The planet faces a not even 12-year deadline before a climate catastrophe fever hits. This pandemic is but a sneeze. All solutions have to be looked into including market solutions. If this pandemic is worth three trillion, the climate catastrophe is worth 30. AOC is the vital center, the animated center. The political spectrum is ablaze. She is a natural political talent fit for the giant task of climate and social justice. 


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Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Coronavirus News (202)

Whose coronavirus strategy worked best? Scientists hunt most effective policies Researchers sift through data to compare nations’ vastly different containment measures.......  swift surveillance, quarantine and social-distancing measures, such as the use of face masks and school closures, helped to cut coronavirus transmission 

Pandemic Protection: line charts highlighting several countries severity of response to coronavirus since day of first death

‘We need to be alert’: Scientists fear second coronavirus wave as China’s lockdowns ease Other countries on lockdown will be watching for a resurgence of infections in Hubei province now that travel restrictions are lifting.

What China’s coronavirus response can teach the rest of the world Researchers are studying the effects of China’s lockdowns to glean insights about controlling the viral pandemic.

Why Japanese Businesses Are So Good at Surviving Crises

The Soft Butch That Couldn’t (Or: I Got COVID-19 in March and Never Got Better)

Governments must beware the lure of free money Budget constraints have gone missing. That presents both danger and opportunity ...... It is sometimes said that governments wasted the global financial crisis of 2007-09 by failing to rethink economic policy after the dust settled. Nobody will say the same about the covid-19 pandemic. It has led to a desperate scramble to enact policies that only a few months ago were either unimaginable or heretical. A profound shift is now taking place in economics as a result, of the sort that happens only once in a generation. Much as in the 1970s when clubby Keynesianism gave way to Milton Friedman’s austere monetarism, and in the 1990s when central banks were given their independence, so the pandemic marks the start of a new era. Its overriding preoccupation will be exploiting the opportunities and containing the enormous risks that stem from a supersized level of state intervention in the economy and financial markets. ...........  The imf predicts that rich countries will borrow 17% of their combined gdp this year to fund $4.2trn in spending and tax cuts designed to keep the economy going. They are not done. In America Congress is debating another spending package ........... central banks are tacitly financing the stimulus. The result is that long-term interest rates stay low even while public-debt issuance soars. ...... The state’s growing role as capital-allocator-in-chief is the third aspect of the new age. .........  Together the Fed and Treasury are now backstopping 11% of America’s entire stock of business debt. ..........  Low inflation is therefore the fundamental reason not to worry about public debt, which, thanks to accommodative monetary policy, now costs so little to service that it looks like free money. ........   deficits and money-printing may well become the standard tools of policymaking for decades. The central banks’ growing role in financial markets, meanwhile, reflects the stagnation of banks as intermediaries and the prominence of innovative and risk-hungry shadow banks and capital markets ..........  In the old days, when commercial banks ruled the roost, central banks acted as lenders of last resort to them. Now central banks increasingly have to get their hands dirty on Wall Street and elsewhere by acting as mammoth “marketmakers of last resort”. .............  If inflation jumps unexpectedly the entire edifice of debt will shake, as central banks have to raise their policy rates and in turn pay out vast sums of interest on the new reserves that they have created to buy bonds. And even if inflation stays low, the new machinery is vulnerable to capture by lobbyists, unions and cronies. .............   When money is free, why not rescue companies, protect obsolete jobs and save investors? However, though that would provide a brief stimulus, it is a recipe for distorted markets, moral hazard and low growth. .............  today interest rates, so close to zero, seem impotent and the monarchs who run the world’s central banks are becoming rather like servants working as the government’s debt-management arm.    


Coronavirus News (201)

Illustration of a line of people walking through a jungle that is filled with Sars-CoV-2 virus.

How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond This coronavirus is here for the long haul — here’s what scientists predict for the next months and years. ..........  June 2021. The world has been in pandemic mode for a year and a half. The virus continues to spread at a slow burn; intermittent lockdowns are the new normal. An approved vaccine offers six months of protection, but international deal-making has slowed its distribution. An estimated 250 million people have been infected worldwide, and 1.75 million are dead   

Two decades of pandemic war games failed to account for Donald Trump The scenarios foresaw leaky travel bans, a scramble for vaccines and disputes between state and federal leaders, but none could anticipate the current levels of dysfunction in the United States. .............  last year, leaders in the field ranked the United States top in the Global Health Security Index, which graded 195 countries in terms of how well prepared they were to fight outbreaks, on the basis of more than 100 factors. ............   Now, as COVID-19 cases in the United States surpass 4 million, with more than 150,000 deaths, the country has proved itself to be one of the most dysfunctional ...........  some countries that hadn’t ranked nearly so high in evaluations, such as Vietnam, executed swift, cohesive responses. ........  Pandemic simulations first started gaining popularity in the 2000s. Biosecurity and public-health specialists took their cue from war-game exercises used by the military, in an effort to stress-test health systems, see what could go wrong and scare policymakers into fixing the problems. ...........  2017: A pandemic simulation takes place at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland. ........  2019: Event 201, a simulation of a novel coronavirus pandemic, is held in New York City. 2020: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic kills more than 670,000 people in the first half of the year. ............  In January 2017, the World Bank and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in Seattle, Washington, backed a pandemic simulation at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland — a gathering of global leaders in business, politics and academia. ...........  In May 2018, with leaders in the White House and Congress who had never dealt with a major epidemic, Inglesby and his colleagues at Johns Hopkins University hosted an exercise in Washington DC called Clade X. It featured a respiratory virus that was engineered in a laboratory. One early lesson of this simulation was that travel bans didn’t stop the virus from gaining ground. Infections spread rapidly below the radar because half of the people infected showed few or no symptoms. Medical supplies ran short, and hospitals were overwhelmed. Federal and state leaders issued conflicting messages. More than 20 months passed before a vaccine was available. ...................   Six top-line recommendations emerged from the exercise. These included reducing vaccine production time, and creating a “robust, highly capable national public health system that can manage the challenges of pandemic response”. .............  members of the biosecurity community have often focused on vaccines, rather than on the complex, systemic deficiencies in the public-health system. They often overlooked the “middle game” in outbreak responses. ............    insufficient attention is devoted to harnessing and coordinating enough health workers and biomedical resources to efficiently test people, treat them, find their contacts and quarantine them. This is precisely the conundrum that the United States finds itself in right now. .............  the discussion after the simulation focused on straightforward end-game strategies such as vaccine development, rather than the more complicated strengthening of the national public-health system. ...............   muddling the response in the early months of an epidemic has catastrophic repercussions. ..........  Confusion emerged in most pandemic simulations, but none explored the consequences of a White House sidelining its own public-health agency. .........  “You need gas in the engine and the brakes to work, but if the driver doesn’t want to use the car, you’re not going anywhere”  ........    New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea showed that it was possible to contain the virus ..........   The places that have done well with COVID-19 had “early, decisive action by their government leaders” he says. Cameron agrees: “It’s not that the US doesn’t have the right tools — it’s that we aren’t choosing to use them.” ..................   After more than 70 people in Taiwan died as a result of SARS in 2003, the government mapped out its emergency-response network. “Every year since then, for the past 17 years, they’ve held annual outbreak exercises and practised, practised, practised” ..............   Despite its proximity to the outbreak, Taiwan has had only seven deaths from COVID-19 so far. ...........   The daily number of new COVID-19 cases broke records throughout much of July, after many states attempted to reopen their economies. ...........   restructuring health systems, empowering public-health leaders and ensuring that all components function in unison in the event of a crisis. ...........  financial turmoil would last for years, or even a decade. But societal impacts — including loss of faith in government and the media — could last even longer.   

Cartoon showing forensic-like board linking various COVID-19 related images.

Profile of a killer: the complex biology powering the coronavirus pandemic Scientists are piecing together how SARS-CoV-2 operates, where it came from and what it might do next — but pressing questions remain about the source of COVID-19. .........   Under electron microscopes, these viruses resembled the solar corona, which led researchers in 1968 to coin the term coronaviruses for the entire group. It was a family of dynamic killers: dog coronaviruses could harm cats, the cat coronavirus could ravage pig intestines. .........  genetic evidence suggests that it has been hiding out in nature possibly for decades. ..............  “There will be more, either out there already or in the making” .........  With 30,000 genetic bases, coronaviruses have the largest genomes of all RNA viruses. Their genomes are more than three times as big as those of HIV and hepatitis C, and more than twice influenza’s. ..........  Influenza mutates up to three times more often than coronaviruses do, a pace that enables it to evolve quickly and sidestep vaccines. But coronaviruses have a special trick that gives them a deadly dynamism: they frequently recombine, swapping chunks of their RNA with other coronaviruses. Typically, this is a meaningless trading of like parts between like viruses. But when two distant coronavirus relatives end up in the same cell, recombination can lead to formidable versions that infect new cell types and jump to other species ................   Estimates for the birth of the first coronavirus vary widely, from 10,000 years ago to 300 million years ago. Scientists are now aware of dozens of strains3, seven of which infect humans. ...........  Among the four that cause common colds, two (OC43 and HKU1) came from rodents, and the other two (229E and NL63) from bats. The three that cause severe disease — SARS-CoV (the cause of SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 — all came from bats. But scientists think there is usually an intermediary — an animal infected by the bats that carries the virus into humans. With SARS, the intermediary is thought to be civet cats, which are sold in live-animal markets in China. .................. SARS-CoV-2 — or a very similar ancestor — has been hiding in some animal for decades. ........  A neighbour’s cough that sends ten viral particles your way might be enough to start an infection in your throat, but the hair-like cilia found there are likely to do their job and clear the invaders. If the neighbour is closer and coughs 100 particles towards you, the virus might be able get all the way down to the lungs ...........  the virus can also bypass the throat cells and go straight down into the lungs. Then patients might get pneumonia without the usual mild symptoms such as a cough or low-grade fever that would otherwise come first ............  SARS-CoV-2 can mix the transmissibility of the common cold coronaviruses with the lethality of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV .................   SARS-CoV-2 can shed viral particles from the throat into saliva even before symptoms start, and these can then pass easily from person to person. SARS-CoV was much less effective at making that jump, passing only when symptoms were full-blown, making it easier to contain. ............  SARS-CoV-2 is much better at infecting people, but many of the infections don’t progress to the lungs. ...........  And as with SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and animal coronaviruses, the damage doesn’t stop with the lungs. A SARS-CoV-2 infection can trigger an excessive immune response known as a cytokine storm, which can lead to multiple organ failure and death. The virus can also infect the intestines, the heart, the blood, sperm (as can MERS-CoV), the eye and possibly the brain. Damage to the kidney, liver and spleen observed in people with COVID-19 suggests that the virus can be carried in the blood and infect various organs or tissues ..............   The virus might be able to infect various organs or tissues wherever the blood supply reaches ............  First, the protein’s receptor-binding domain latches on to a receptor called ACE2, which sits on the surface of the host cell. ACE2 is expressed throughout the body on the lining of the arteries and veins that course through all organs, but it is particularly dense on the cells lining the alveoli and small intestines. ...........  SARS-CoV-2 is so good at infecting the upper respiratory tract that there might even be a second receptor that the virus could use to launch its attack. ........  Like the four generally mild human coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 would then circulate constantly and cause mainly mild upper respiratory tract infections ........  OC43 was responsible for a pandemic that killed more than one million people worldwide in 1889–90 — an outbreak previously blamed on influenza. Today, OC43 continues to circulate widely and it might be that continual exposure to the virus keeps the great majority of people immune to it. .........  Many scientists are reserving judgement on whether the tamer coronaviruses were once as virulent as SARS-CoV-2. People like to think that “the other coronaviruses were terrible and became mild”, says Perlman. “That’s an optimistic way to think about what’s going on now, but we don’t have evidence.”


A family of killers. Chart showing evolution of SARS-CoV-2.


Deadly invader. Graphic showing SARS-CoV-2 infecting a human cell.


Thursday, August 06, 2020

Coronavirus News (200)


The Winter Will Be Worse When socializing outside gets harder in much of the U.S., daily life will get more dismal, and the virus might spread even further..........  “There really is no easy way to socialize during late fall [and] winter in large parts of the country if you're not doing it outside ........... Could I have people over in my house for two hours on a Sunday morning in December? Barring really good testing, probably not.” .............  and “if the space is heated, it can lead to dry air,” which is more hospitable to the virus. ..........  stay at least six feet apart, wear a mask, wipe down frequently touched surfaces, meet in a building with sufficient filters in its ventilation system, use a portable air purifier and a humidifier, and stay clear of crowded rooms ..............   the widespread use of cheap, quick coronavirus tests. “Imagine those tests get better and they become ubiquitous—could you go and hang out with a friend if you both tested negative that morning, in a community that doesn't have large transmission? I would feel comfortable” doing that, he said. But “I probably wouldn't give them a hug and sit right next to them.” ...........  “The winter could get a lot worse than even now,” Noymer said. “There’s plenty of room [in the population] for this thing to expand.” ..........  “Also, people are already feeling pandemic fatigue, and I think that'll only get worse.” Due to the combination of indoor transmission risk and that increased desire to gather, he thinks “there almost surely will be a spike in cases” this winter. ...........   that people spend more time indoors together, that the lower level of humidity suits the viruses better, that our mucous membranes get drier and more vulnerable to infection ...........  Making matters worse, the pandemic will, if it isn’t somehow neutralized, coincide with flu season, which usually starts in October and is at its worst December through February. ..............  “COVID compromises the respiratory system and so does flu, so each of them makes the other one worse” ........ because the two diseases have some symptoms in common, telling them apart can be difficult. .................. “It’s not [primarily] about summer or winter,” he explained. “It’s about outdoors versus indoors … Arizona in June is like Boston in December.” ............  “It’s always winter inside a meatpacking plant” ............ “I am more optimistic that November, December, January, February are not going to be some kind of apocalypse that looks like what life felt like in March or April,” Jha said. “I think we can do better than that. But it will require policy intervention.” Namely: widespread, affordable, and quick testing; strongly enforced masking mandates; and improved ventilation in classrooms and other indoor spaces. ...........  a “nightmare scenario” playing out, with people cooped up indoors, schools closed, a still-weak testing regime, and a bad flu season. Americans could be living like that for months. “I think it is wholly avoidable, but 150,000 deaths later, a lot of this was avoidable,” Jha said. “So I don’t put it past our nation to botch the next phases of the response.”    

Immunology Is Where Intuition Goes to Die Which is too bad because we really need to understand how the immune system reacts to the coronavirus. .........  An immunologist and a cardiologist are kidnapped. The kidnappers threaten to shoot one of them, but promise to spare whoever has made the greater contribution to humanity. The cardiologist says, “Well, I’ve identified drugs that have saved the lives of millions of people.” Impressed, the kidnappers turn to the immunologist. “What have you done?” they ask. The immunologist says, “The thing is, the immune system is very complicated …” And the cardiologist says, “Just shoot me now.” ................  the immune system is very complicated. Arguably the most complex part of the human body outside the brain, it’s an absurdly intricate network of cells and molecules that protect us from dangerous viruses and other microbes........  Immunology confuses even biology professors who aren’t immunologists  ...........  Immunity, then, is usually a matter of degrees, not absolutes. And it lies at the heart of many of the COVID-19 pandemic’s biggest questions. Why do some people become extremely ill and others don’t? Can infected people ever be sickened by the same virus again? How will the pandemic play out over the next months and years? Will vaccination work? .........  T-cells do demolition; antibodies do cleanup. ........  “any virus that can make people sick has to have at least one good trick for evading the immune system,” Crotty says. The new coronavirus seems to rely on early stealth, somehow delaying the launch of the innate immune system, and inhibiting the production of interferons—those molecules that initially block viral replication. “I believe this [delay] is really the key in determining good versus bad outcomes,” says Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale. It creates a brief time window in which the virus can replicate unnoticed before the alarm bells start sounding. Those delays cascade: If the innate branch is slow to mobilize, the adaptive branch will also lag. .....................  Immune responses are inherently violent. Cells are destroyed. Harmful chemicals are unleashed. Ideally, that violence is targeted and restrained ..............  “If you can’t clear the virus quickly enough, you’re susceptible to damage from the virus and the immune system” .........  three broad groups of pathogens: viruses and microbes that invade cells, bacteria and fungi that stay outside cells, and parasitic worms...........   why so many “long-haulers” have endured months of debilitating symptoms .........  surveyed 700 long-haulers and a third had tested negative for antibodies, despite having symptoms consistent with COVID-19 ............  The immune system’s reaction to the virus is a matter of biology, but the range of reactions we actually see is also influenced by politics. Bad decisions mean more cases, which means a wider variety of possible immune responses, which means a higher prevalence of rare events. In other words, the worse the pandemic gets, the weirder it will get. ...................  20 to 50 percent of people who were never exposed to SARS-CoV-2 nonetheless have significant numbers of T-cells that can recognize it. ...........  The immediate uncertainty around our pandemic future “doesn’t stem from the immune response,” Cobey says, but from “policies that are enacted, and whether people will distance or wear masks.” ............   The virus could cause annual outbreaks. It might sweep the world until enough people are vaccinated or infected, and then disappear. It could lie low for years and then suddenly bounce back. All of these scenarios are possible