Sunday, May 24, 2020

Coronavirus News (110)

Texas Lt. Governor: Old People Should Volunteer to Die to Save the Economy According to Dan Patrick “lots of grandparents” are willing to sacrifice themselves for the cause.



Why we might not get a coronavirus vaccine Politicians have become more cautious about immunisation prospects. They are right to be .......... while trials have been launched and manufacturing deals already signed – Oxford University is now recruiting 10,000 volunteers for the next phase of its research – ministers and their advisers have become noticeably more cautious in recent days. ............

“We can’t be sure we will get a vaccine.”

........ Vaccines are simple in principle but complex in practice. The ideal vaccine protects against infection, prevents its spread, and does so safely. But none of this is easily achieved, as vaccine timelines show. ........ More than 30 years after scientists isolated HIV, the virus that causes Aids, we have no vaccine. The dengue fever virus was identified in 1943, but the first vaccine was approved only last year, and even then amid concerns it made the infection worse in some people. The fastest vaccine ever developed was for mumps. It took four years. ..........

coronaviruses do not tend to trigger long-lasting immunity

. About a quarter of common colds are caused by human coronaviruses, but the immune response fades so rapidly that people can become reinfected the next year. ........... Researchers at Oxford University recently analysed blood from recovered Covid-19 patients and found that levels of IgG antibodies – those responsible for longer-lasting immunity – rose steeply in the first month of infection but then began to fall again. ...........

most people who recovered from Covid-19 without going into hospital did not make many killer antibodies against the virus.

......... If a vaccine only protects for a year, the virus will be with us for some time. ........ Some viruses, such as influenza, mutate so rapidly that vaccine developers have to release new formulations each year. The rapid evolution of HIV is a major reason we have no vaccine for the disease. ........ Unlike experimental drugs for the severely ill, the vaccine will be given to potentially billions of generally healthy people. .......... During the search for a Sars vaccine in 2004, scientists found that one candidate caused hepatitis in ferrets. Another serious concern is “antibody-induced enhancement” where the antibodies produced by a vaccine actually make future infections worse. The effect caused serious lung damage in animals given experimental vaccines for both Sars and Mers. .............. The US biotech firm Moderna reported antibody levels similar to those found in recovered patients in 25 people who received its vaccine. ....... Another vaccine from Oxford University did not stop monkeys contracting the virus, but did appear to prevent pneumonia, a major cause of death in coronavirus patients......... Coronavirus patients pass the virus on to three others, on average, but if two or more are immune, the outbreak will fizzle out. That is the best-case scenario. .........

a vaccine that doesn’t stop the virus replicating can encourage resistant strains to evolve, making the vaccine redundant.

........ “If and when we have a vaccine, what you get is not rainbows and unicorns” ...... “If we are forced to choose a vaccine that gives only one year of protection, then we are doomed to have Covid become endemic, an infection that is always with us.” ......... “It will be harder to get rid of Covid than smallpox,” says Brilliant. With smallpox it was at least clear who was infected, whereas people with coronavirus can spread it without knowing. A thornier problem is that

as long as the infection rages in one country, all other nations are at risk

. ............ “Unless we have a vaccine available in unbelievable quantities that could be administered extraordinarily quickly in all communities in the world we will have gaps in our defences that the virus can continue to circulate in.” ........... the virus will “ping-pong back and forth in time and geography”. ....... some kind of global agreement must be hammered out now. “We should be demanding, now, a global conference on what we’re going to do when we get a vaccine, or if we don’t” ............ “If the process of getting a vaccine, testing it, proving it, manufacturing it, planning for its delivery, and building a vaccine programme all over the world, if that’s going to take as long as we think, then let’s fucking start planning it now.” ............. we will have to get used to extensive monitoring for infections backed up by swift outbreak containment. People must play their part too, by maintaining handwashing, physical distancing and avoiding gatherings, particularly in enclosed spaces. ......... Immediate treatment when symptoms come on could at least reduce the death rate. ........ all social distancing can be relaxed – but only if people wear masks in enclosed spaces such as on trains and at work, and that no food or drink are consumed at concerts and cinemas. ..........

the diligent and correct use of reusable masks is the most important measure



Inflamed brains, toe rashes, strokes: Why COVID-19's weirdest symptoms are only emerging now These symptoms sound scary, but they should be expected. Here's what scientists know about the "new" effects of the coronavirus. ....... An infection can inflict serious damage inside your body in many different ways, and COVID-19 seems to use just about all of them. The coronavirus primarily attacks the lungs, which can cause pneumonia or even respiratory failure, and

in one of every five patients, it also leads to multiple organ failure

. ........... Every human body is unique, so a disease that strikes millions of people will yield some oddities. .........

COVID-19 starts as a respiratory disease

. The virus invades cells in the nose, throat, and lungs and starts to replicate, causing flu-like symptoms that can progress to pneumonia and even punch holes in your lungs, leaving permanent scars. For many patients, that’s the worst of it. .........

A cytokine storm can damage the liver or kidneys and result in multi-organ failure.

....... one in five COVID-19 patients experiencing some cardiac injury ........... If a virus attacks the lungs, they become less efficient at supplying oxygen to the bloodstream. An infection can also inflame the arteries, causing them to narrow and supply less blood to the organs, including the heart.

The heart then responds by working harder to compensate, which can lead to cardiovascular distress

. ........... One unusual and as-yet unexplained symptom—even among young and otherwise healthy people—is myocarditis, a relatively rare condition in which inflammation weakens the heart muscle. ........

the coronavirus may embed itself directly in the heart

. Viruses enter cells by looking for their favorite doorways—proteins called receptors. In the case of the coronavirus, scientists have noted that the heart possesses the same protein gateway of choice, called ACE-2, that SARS-CoV-2 uses to attack the lungs. ............ viruses such as chickenpox and HIV have been known to directly infect heart muscle, and research suggests that the coronavirus can invade the blood vessel lining. .......... has raised the question of whether COVID-19 should also be classified as a cardiovascular disease. ....... More than 160 years ago, a German physician named Rudolf Virchow detailed three reasons abnormal blood clots can occur. First, if the inner lining of blood vessels becomes injured, perhaps due to an infection, it can release proteins that promote clotting. Second, clots can form if the blood flow becomes stagnant, which sometimes happens when people in hospital beds are immobile for too long. Finally, vessels can develop a tendency to become cluttered with platelets or other circulating proteins that repair wounds—which typically happens with inherited diseases but can also be triggered by systemic inflammation. ............ all three of those are playing a role in COVID .........

pre-existing cardiovascular disease correlates with severe COVID-19.

.......... It’s not clear why COVID-19’s clots are so tiny and are filling organs by the hundreds ........ Most of the strokes reported with COVID-19 have been “ischemic,” meaning a clot plugs one of the vessels supplying blood to the brain. Ischemic strokes are already common in general—with 690,000 cases in the U.S. per year—due to their tight correlation with cardiovascular conditions like atherosclerosis. If an ischemic stroke blocks the supply of oxygenated blood for too long, it can impair the area of the brain that lies downstream. That’s why the manifestations caused by the coronavirus can seem random—such as trouble speaking or seeing or walking. Some COVID-19 cases have also involved hemorrhagic stroke, which occurs when a weakened blood vessel ruptures and bleeds into the brain, compressing the surrounding brain tissue. ............ Reports have also linked COVID-19 to patients suffering from encephalitis, or inflammation of the brain, as well as a much rarer syndrome called Guillain–Barré, in which the body’s immune system attacks the nerves. In milder cases, encephalitis can cause flu-like symptoms; in more severe cases, it might bring

seizures, paralysis, and confusion

............. When one of these viruses invades the nervous system, it can injure and inflame the brain either by directly killing cells or by inviting the immune system to do the job, akin to a cytokine storm. .......... One of the most recently discovered—and most inexplicable—signs of COVID-19 is a broad range of inflammatory symptoms that it seems to be provoking in the skin, including rashes, the painful red lesions that have come to be known as COVID toe, and the collection of symptoms in children that’s been labeled a “Kawasaki-like” syndrome. ............ with COVID-19, rashes take on so many different patterns that it’s hard to tell if any of them are unique to SARS-CoV-2 in the same way that itchy red bumps and blisters are a telltale sign of chickenpox. The situation is so

mystifying

that some experts wonder if the rashes seen in COVID-19 patients are just a coincidence. ......... In the meantime, researchers say, we should stay focused on maintaining the now standard practices to protect ourselves from COVID-19, including

wearing masks outside, meticulous handwashing, and careful social distancing

. “That’s going to be the answer,” Agus says, “whether this turns into one syndrome or four syndromes.”


Friday, May 22, 2020

Coronavirus News (109)

STUDY: COVID PATIENTS SUFFERING ACUTE KIDNEY DAMAGE over a third of COVID-19 patients experienced acute kidney injury ........ “We found in the first 5,449 patients admitted, 36.6% developed acute kidney injury” ........ Doctors have also found links between COVID-19 and a variety of other conditions, including vitamin deficiency, blood clots, and it’s also known to have devastating effects on the lungs, intestines, and the heart. All told,

a picture is starting to emerge of a ferocious, unpredictable illness that can attack organ systems across the body

. ......... 14.3 percent of patients required dialysis, the process of removing excess water and toxins from the blood when the kidney can no longer take care of the process. ....... There was also a strong association between COVID-19 patients ending up on a ventilator and developing acute kidney failure. Among more than 1,000 patients on ventilators, 90 percent developed the serious condition.

Why contact tracing may be a mess in America High caseloads, low testing, and American attitudes toward government authority could pose serious challenges for successful efforts to track and contain coronavirus cases. ....... Stubbornly high new infection levels in some areas, the continued shortage of tests, and American attitudes toward privacy could all hamstring the effectiveness of such programs. ........

The chief challenge with this coronavirus is its potential to spread exponentially

: absent containment measures, every infected person on average will infect two or three others, according to most estimates (although some studies find it could be higher). ........ If they successfully detected 90% of symptomatic cases and reached 90% of their contacts—and tested all of them regardless of whether they had symptoms—it could reduce transmissions by more than 45% .........

as regions relax social distancing measures, the average number of contacts for infected patients could rise to closer to 20.

...... US tracing efforts will require 30 professionals for every 100,000 people (or more than 98,000 people nationwide). ........ They called on Congress to set up a 180,000-person contact tracing workforce that would cost the federal government some $12 billion. .......

Move fast and test things

........ people are most infectious before and within five days of the onset of symptoms ......

people with minimal or no warning signs like fevers and coughs are a major vector of the disease

............ Successful contact tracing efforts also require people to accept calls and heed advice from complete strangers...... Unfortunately, years of robocalls and telemarketing have conditioned many Americans to ignore calls from numbers they don’t recognize. ........ San Francisco’s contact tracers are finding that about 40% of potentially exposed contacts are Spanish-only speakers, many of them in crowded living situations. .......... Americans have already defied the orders of health officials in several prominent incidents, including assaults on store workers who asked people to wear masks, armed demonstrators protesting stay-at-home restrictions, and businesses that have reopened before their local government gave the go-ahead.


5 summer books and other things to do at home

The Post-COVID-19 World Will Be Less Global and Less Urban The COVID-19 pandemic will reverse the trends of globalization and urbanization, increasing the distance between countries and among people. These changes will make for a safer and more resilient world, but one that is also less prosperous, stable and fulfilling ......... In retrospect, we will come to view the years right before the 2008 financial crisis as “peak globalization.” ......... What was a growing “anti-globalization” consensus is poised to crystalize into a “de-globalization” reality. .......... After coronavirus, people will be more fearful of crowded trains and buses, cafes and restaurants, theaters and stadiums, supermarkets and offices. Crowded spaces are the lifeblood of cities. But now crowds are seen as major health risks. ....... De-urbanization would harm economic growth because cities generate enormous scale economies and have proved to be remarkably effective incubators of creativity and innovation. ........

In addition to being more productive, cities also tend to be more environmentally sustainable.

.... Globalization and urbanization generate challenges we must confront, all the more so in a post-coronavirus world. The solution is to manage them, not to reverse them.


The Pandemic Is Turbo-charging Government Innovation: Will It Stick? The trick for making these solutions stick, they say, is transitioning from a focus on modernization to

a culture of continuous innovation

. .......... persistent challenges like cybersecurity, healthcare, and the one we are all most concerned about right now: the COVID-19 pandemic and its many troubling repercussions ......... Challenges like these really bring into focus the many critical roles that government agencies play in our lives. The current environment underscores how important it is that our government operate with the latest innovations and capabilities in hand. Government leaders need data-derived insights at their disposal and advanced technology tools that allow them to move rapidly and collaboratively as their mission-focused workloads require. .......... The massive $2 trillion coronavirus aid package passed by Congress in March includes

$340 billion in new government appropriations, much of which will go toward government telework, telehealth, cybersecurity, and network bandwidth initiatives

. .......... The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, a congressionally chartered, independent commission, is urging Congress to double federal research and development spending on artificial intelligence in fiscal 2021 and then double it again the following year. .........

Innovations that are ubiquitous today, including the Internet, GPS, touchscreen display, smart phones, and voice-activated personal assistants, all stem from government investments.

........ the outdated technology and archaic business processes that are still embedded across the government. ......... Until recently, government agencies have been relatively slow in adopting emerging technologies and commercial best practices — cloud computing, artificial intelligence, robotic process automation (RPA), human-centered design, and customer experience, to name a few — that have been powering positive disruptions in the commercial sector for years. ......... They have tried to adapt commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) software to rigid, complex, decades-old internal business processes that are often rooted in law and shaped by highly prescriptive compliance regulations. ...... ......Emerging capabilities such as software-defined everything, virtualization, containerization, open source software, API connectivity, advanced encryption, advanced data visualization, robotic process automation (RPA), and machine learning have evolved in recent years to the point where commercial technologies today are exceedingly more adaptable to government needs and use cases. ........

federal agencies throughout that period have been busy overhauling their outdated bureaucratic approaches

....... federal agencies correctly view cloud adoption as pivotal in their ability to leap-frog from being technology laggards to technology leaders. ........ today’s emerging and complex challenges, such as multi-domain operations in defense, public health, cybersecurity, and the transitioning economy. ....... Health and Human Services plans to employ AI, intelligent automation, blockchain, micro-services, machine learning, natural language processing, and RPA to support services like medication adherence, decentralized clinical trials, evidence management, outcomes-based pricing, and pharmaceutical supply chain visibility. ....... Technologies will constantly advance, so agencies need a different mindset that views innovation as a non-stop journey of continuous evolution and adaptation


Thursday, May 21, 2020

Coronavirus News (108)



What Xi knew: pressure builds on China’s leader his government now faces the most daunting set of economic and financial challenges since Deng Xiaoping began to steer the country out of the wreckage of the cultural revolution in 1979............. what he knew, what he did and what he didn’t do during a critical 13-day period preceding China’s acknowledgment on January 20 that coronavirus was highly contagious. ......... it is not yet clear whether “the Chinese economy can recover after this shock, especially after the expected restructuring of global supply chains and another escalation in US-China tensions”. ........ After largely disappearing from view in late January and early February, he finally showed up on the front lines of the battle against coronavirus on February 10 and has since led

the most effective long-term containment plan among the world’s most populous nations.

......... Mr Xi’s cause has been helped by the chaotic response to coronavirus in the US and parts of Europe. ......... “Then the virus spread across the world and death tolls were much higher elsewhere. People changed their minds partly because of what Xi did right, but more because of other countries’ failures.” ......... national health officials warned on January 14 in an internal meeting that China faced a “severe and complex public health event”, adding that “the risk of transmission and spread is high”. But Beijing did not make a public announcement until January 20......... Mr Xi’s disappearing act in late January and early February could indicate that even China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong was finding it difficult to get to the bottom of what was happening in Wuhan ...........

“The small infection numbers outside Hubei are related to low testing rates,” says one Chinese doctor who asked not to be named. “We did not have many test sites outside Hubei. If we want to figure out the real infection rate, we need to conduct large-scale antibody testing to see how many people used to be infected.”

........ By contrast, the US response continues to vary depending on the approaches adopted by state governors, leading to multiple Wuhan-sized infection clusters and stubbornly high daily infection and fatality counts.


Covid-19 will blight the prospects of a generation What a lousy time to graduate.

Coronavirus: AstraZeneca ready to supply potential vaccine in September Drugs giant AstraZeneca has announced it is ready to provide a potential new coronavirus vaccine from September. .......The firm said it had concluded deals to deliver at least 400 million doses of the vaccine, which it is developing with Oxford University........AstraZeneca said it was capable of producing one billion doses of the AZD1222 vaccine this year and next. ......... Initial trials are under way and AstraZeneca said it recognised that the vaccine might not work. ....... Scientists have warned that a coronavirus vaccine, if developed, might not confer full immunity, while Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned that

a vaccine might never be found

....... Despite these reservations, intensive research continues, with about 80 groups around the world working on possible vaccines. ........ Specifically, it said it had received support of more than $1bn from the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) for the development, production and delivery of the vaccine


Coronavirus: US health official warns of dangerous second wave a fresh outbreak would likely coincide with the flu season .......... It would put "unimaginable strain" on the US health care system ........

A post-mortem examination has revealed that a person who died at home on 6 February in Santa Clara county is now the first known fatality in the US.

..... the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through".


Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Coronavirus News (107)

Medical team in Bangladesh suggests combination of Ivermectin and Doxycycline for COVID-19 treatment
Coronavirus: Brazil overtakes Spain and Italy as new cases grow Brazil has overtaken Spain and Italy to become the country with the fourth-largest number of confirmed coronavirus infections in the world. ....... Officials on Saturday reported 14,919 new cases in the past 24 hours, taking the total to 233,142. Only the US, Russia and the UK have higher numbers. ...... The death toll in Brazil over 24 hours was 816, bringing the total to 15,633 - the world's fifth-highest figure. ........

the real figure may be far higher due to a lack of testing.

....... The mayor of the country's most populous city, São Paulo, warned on Sunday that

the city's health system could collapse

. Bruno Covas said the public hospitals in the city reached 90% capacity for emergency beds, with demand still growing. ......... "Brazil is only testing people who end up in the hospital" ........ We don't have a real policy to manage the outbreak .......

the real number of infections was 15 times higher than the official figure.

....... Mr Bolsonaro continues to oppose lockdown measures. He has downplayed the virus as "a little flu" and has said the spread of Covid-19 is inevitable. ........ not enough Brazilians are staying at home to slow the spread of the virus ........ Mexico has recently seen a spike in new infections, while

Ecuador saw its health system collapse in April

. ........ The sharp rise in cases in Latin America has led the World Health Organization (WHO) to say the Americas are currently at the centre of the pandemic..... In March, the WHO had labelled Europe the "epicentre of the pandemic"




If 80% of Americans Wore Masks, COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet, New Study Says There’s compelling evidence that Japan, Hong Kong, and other East Asian locales are doing it right and we should really, truly mask up—fast. ........ The formula? Always social distance in public and, most importantly, wear a mask. ...... The day before yesterday, 21 people died of COVID-19 in Japan. In the United States, 2,129 died. ......... total U.S. deaths now at a staggering 76,032 and Japan’s fatalities at 577. Japan’s population is about 38% of the U.S., but even adjusting for population, the Japanese death rate is a mere 2% of America’s. .......... This comes despite Japan having no lockdown, still-active subways, and many businesses that have remained open—reportedly including karaoke bars, although Japanese citizens and industries are practicing social distancing where they can. Nor have the Japanese broadly embraced contact tracing, a practice by which health authorities identify someone who has been infected and then attempt to identify everyone that person might have interacted with—and potentially infected. So how does Japan do it? .........

nearly everyone there is wearing a mask ...... every one of us should be wearing a mask—whether surgical or homemade, scarf or bandana

........ a cultural difference between East Asia, where masks have been routinely worn for decades to fend off pollution and germs ........ how effective certain masks are at blocking the invisible micro-droplets of moisture that spray out of our mouths when we exhale or speak, or our noses when we sneeze, which scientists believe are significant vectors for spreading the coronavirus. ....... it works, along with social distancing, to flatten the curve of infections as we wait for treatments and vaccines to be developed—while also allowing people to go out and some businesses to reopen .........

masks are very, very important

........ “This is the goal,” De Kai maintained. “For 80 or 90% of the population to be wearing masks.” Anything less, he added, doesn’t work as well. “If you get down to 30 or 40%, you get almost no [beneficial] effect at all.” ........ “I started to go out just to buy food in mid-March,” recalled economist Guy-Philippe Goldstein. “I was the only one wearing a mask, and people were making fun of me. They aren’t now, although there still aren’t enough people in Paris wearing masks.” This may be one reason why only a few states in the U.S. currently require people to always wear masks when they are out in public, although many states require masks for certain workers, for entering businesses, and on public transportation. Many cities and counties, including Denver and Los Angeles County, require them too. Whether you’re in a blue state or a red one, you don’t want to become one of De Kai’s red dots.


Lockdown, Shutdown, Breakdown: India's COVID Policy Must Be Driven By Data, Not Fear If you can't solve the problem, you are not employing evidence. And India's reaction to the coronavirus is a classic illustration of this truth. .......... A lockdown cannot be imposed on a whim or gut feeling. Crucially, it should never be imposed to garner approval ratings. There has to be a science behind it; the decision must be evidence based ........ The lockdown in India, now all set to enter its fourth stage, is laughable. It was imposed from March 25. As per the WHO, there had been a total of 434 cases till that day, with a cumulative 9 deaths. Italy had 63,927 cases with 6077 deaths, and the US had 42,164 cases and 571 deaths. ........ It is now May 17 and India has seen the total number of cases rise to above 90,000 with 2872 deaths. Around 120 patients died yesterday. The lockdown has obviously not worked one bit. Its timing was too premature, draconian measures were imposed much before cases had begun to mount. No attempt was made by the government or the media to assure the public that all data on COVID-19 pointed to more than 80% people developing mild or no symptoms. The majority of infective people would simply shrug off the virus with absolutely no harm to themselves, especially if they were young (as most Indians are) or had no underlying disease. .............

more than 20,000 Indians die every day because of a variety of reasons.

........ Millions of people have been displaced, lakhs of businesses are shuttered, all schools closed, restaurants and hotels shut, and millions are without jobs or any means of sustenance. The poor have been hit like never before and the middle class too will soon begin to crumble. Crores of children are corralled with unimaginable psychological adverse effects, domestic and child abuse that largely go unreported must be substantially elevated. These matters are well known. ......... Most public health doctors worth their salt will endorse the fact that a lockdown if needed must coincide with the peak incidence of cases; it should never be imposed too early or too late. ........ The logic behind flattening the curve was to buy time to improve logistics in hospitals, get more beds and ventilators. And also to ramp up the ability to test for the virus and check for past infection (antibody tests). ........ a younger population cohort and much higher temperatures than Wuhan, Europe and the US. ........

a nation which attempts an unmanned landing on the moon does not have the scientific intellect to set up an antibody test over five long months. Worse, no one seems to care.

Even the medical fraternity, which should have been screaming for serological testing for themselves has drowned itself in deafening silence. ....... New York state too tested 3,000 people for antibodies to find that 14% had been infected; in fact 21% of New York City inhabitants were infected. The implication, again, was that almost 2.7 million people had got infected. The good news was that armed with this knowledge, governor Andrew Cuomo could publicly declare an infection fatality rate of 0.5%. ..........

Most doctors are so scared that they prefer staying not six but 12 feet away from a patient.

......... there will be far more deaths due to heart attacks, cancers and strokes in the next two to four years, than COVID-19 .......... This virus has no respect for caste, creed, religion or political affiliation. It demands that we shed our intellectual laziness and get to know the truth in order to tackle it. ........ almost 50% of deaths in Europe including Sweden have been in old age homes. ....... So terrified are we of the virus the authorities went to the extent of sealing Delhi from both NOIDA and Haryana. ......... In India, we have faltered at every stage of this epidemic. We never got PCR testing done on time, even today we do not have a validated serology test, we have absolutely no randomised data on any intervention attempted during this pandemic, an ill-timed lockdown was inflicted without any scientific evidence, we have no idea when was the peak of new cases, even today we do not know the virus genome, and crucially we have absolutely no clue of the infection rate.

We all wait with bated breath for a vaccine to materialise in the next 6 to 18 months, in the meantime we are the classic deer in the headlights.

It is imperative that we read up on this virus, attain some clarity while shedding our trepidation. ........... The obsequious babu in his zest for lockdowns is totally oblivious of the fact that there are hundreds of other serious ailments apart from COVID-19 demanding both attention and treatment. Hospitals will shy away from doing what they are trained to do because if you spot a case you will close it down. Please remember that getting infected by this virus is not at all a death warrant; most people (80-90%) get mild to moderate symptoms. The more cases the cases pick up, the greater the immunity the community is developing. ...........

I wonder how many hospitals have been sealed in New York City, London, Madrid, Paris, Manchester, or Berlin? Lots of them would have, if the Indian babus had their way.



Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection. ........

The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November .... Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote

........ "The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great Depression" ........ Trump will badly lose the electoral college by a margin of 328 to 210. ............ seven battleground states will flip to Democrats: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina. ...... No one was predicting a 20% unemployment or a 40% collapse in GDP six months ago. Now, those are the consensus projections. ......... Strong turnout for Democrats could cause Trump to lose Florida, Texas, Arizona, Tennessee and Georgia




What is herd immunity and can it stop the coronavirus? Once enough people get Covid-19, it will stop spreading on its own. But the costs will be devastating. ............. There are basically three ways to stop the Covid-19 disease for good. One involves extraordinary restrictions on free movement and assembly, as well as aggressive testing, to interrupt its transmission entirely. That may be impossible now that the virus is in over 100 countries. The second is a vaccine that could protect everyone, but it still needs to be developed. ...... A third is potentially effective but horrible to consider: just wait until enough people get it. .......... If the virus keeps spreading, eventually so many people will have been infected and (if they survive) become immune that the outbreak will fizzle out on its own as the germ finds it harder and harder to find a susceptible host. This phenomenon is known as herd immunity. ........ given what they know about the virus, it could end up infecting about 60% of the world’s population, even within the year. ......... Boris Johnson indicated that country’s official strategy might be to put on a stiff upper lip and let the disease run its course. ......... so many people will become severely ill—and a sudden boom in sick people needing hospital or ICU care will overwhelm hospitals. ......... even if the pandemic is drawn out over time, it may still take herd immunity to bring it to an end .......... “Herd immunity is not our goal or policy. It’s a scientific concept.” ....... it is ghastly to contemplate the prospect of billions being infected by the coronavirus, which has an estimated fatality rate per infection somewhere around 1% ............. Vaccines create herd immunity too, either when given widely or sometimes when administered in a “ring” around a new case of a rare infection. That’s how diseases like smallpox were eradicated and why polio is close to being erased. Various vaccine efforts are under way for this coronavirus, but they may not be ready for more than a year. ......... what happened in 2017, when drug maker Sanofi quietly abandoned a Zika vaccine in development after funding dried up: there simply wasn’t much of a market any longer ........

For herd immunity to take hold, people must become resistant after they are infected.

.......... About 80,000 people have recovered from the coronavirus already, and it’s likely they are now resistant, although the degree of immunity remains unknown.

“I would be surprised, but not totally surprised, if people did not become immune”

......... The R0 for the coronavirus is between 2 and 2.5, scientists estimate (pdf), meaning each infected person passes it to about two other people, absent measures to contain the contagion. ........ “That is similar to pandemic flu of 1918, and it implies that the end of this epidemic is going to require nearly 50% of the population to be immune, either from a vaccine, which is not on the immediate horizon, or from natural infection” ....... Measles, one of the most easily transmitted diseases with an R0 over 12, requires about 90% of people to be resistant for unprotected people to get a free ride from the herd. That’s why new outbreaks can start when even small numbers of people opt out of the measles vaccine. ......... Whether it’s 50% or 60% or 80%, those figures imply

billions infected and millions killed

around the world, although the more slowly the pandemic unfolds, the greater the chance for new treatments or vaccines to help.


New Jersey just raised its threat level for white supremacists to 'high,' well above ISIS and al Qaeda

Coronavirus News (106)



The Worldwide Lockdown May Be the Greatest Mistake in History Timothy Egan of The New York Times described Republicans who wish to enable their states to open up as “the party of death.” ....... The lockdown is a mistake. The Holocaust, slavery, communism, fascism, etc., were evils. Massive mistakes are made by arrogant fools; massive evils are committed by evil people. ......... The forcible prevention of Americans from doing anything except what politicians deem “essential” has led to the worst economy in American history since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It is panic and hysteria, not the coronavirus that created this catastrophe. And the consequences in much of the world will be more horrible than in the United States. .......... The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) states that by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation — double last year’s figures. ......

“We could be looking at famine in about three-dozen countries … There is also a real danger that more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself”

......... If global gross domestic product (GDP) declines by 5%, another 147 million people could be plunged into extreme poverty ........ the global economy will shrink by 3% in 2020, marking the biggest downturn since the Great Depression, and the U.S., the eurozone and Japan will contract by 5.9%, 7.5% and 5.2% ........ across South Asia, as of a month ago, tens of millions already were “struggling to put food on the table.” Again, all because of the lockdowns, not the virus. ........ “Coronavirus has killed only around 700 Indians … a small number still compared to the 450,000 TB (tuberculosis) and 10,000-odd malaria deaths recorded every year.” .......

“We are starving. If we don’t have food in our stomach, what’s the use of observing this lockdown?” But concern for that Bangladeshi worker among the world’s elites seems nonexistent.

.............. Michael Levitt, professor of structural biology at Stanford Medical School and winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry, recently stated, “There is no doubt in my mind that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor.”


Coronavirus: How 'overreaction' made Vietnam a virus success unlike other countries now seeing infections and deaths on a huge scale, Vietnam saw a small window to act early on and used it fully. ........ though

cost-effective, its intrusive and labour intensive approach

has its drawbacks and experts say it may be too late for most other countries to learn from its success. ......

"When you're dealing with these kinds of unknown novel potentially dangerous pathogens, it's better to overreact," says Dr Todd Pollack

of Harvard's Partnership for Health Advancement in Vietnam in Hanoi. ........ Vietnam instead chose prevention early, and on a massive scale. ...... "It very, very quickly acted in ways which seemed to be quite extreme at the time but were subsequently shown to be rather sensible" ........ Schools were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of January and remained closed until mid-May.

A vast and labour intensive contact tracing operation got under way

. ......... "This is a country that has dealt with a lot of outbreaks in the past," says Prof Thwaites, from Sars in 2003 to avian influenza in 2010 and large outbreaks of measles and dengue. ....... By mid-March, Vietnam was sending everyone who entered the country - and anyone within the country who'd had contact with a confirmed case - to quarantine centres for 14 days. .........

quarantine on such a vast scale is key as evidence mounts that as many as half of all infected people are asymptomatic.

............ 40% of Vietnam's confirmed cases would have had no idea they had the virus had they not been tested. ......... "Unless you were locking those people up they would just be wandering around spreading the infection." ....... This also helps explain the absence of any deaths. .......

the medical system could focus its resources on the few critical cases.

....... While Vietnam never had a total national lockdown, it swooped in on emerging clusters. ....... This localised containment - which is likely to be used again if the virus reappears - meant that Vietnam has not done a huge amount of testing in the wider community. ........ Even in a one-party state like Vietnam, you need to ensure the public is on board for such a sweeping strategy to work. ...... Dr Pollack says

the government did "a really good job of communicating to the public" why what it was doing was necessary

...... Regular SMS messages sent to all phones from the very early stages told people what they could do to protect themselves. Vietnam made use of its ever-present propaganda machine to run a vigorous awareness campaign, drawing on wartime imagery and rhetoric to unite the public in the fight against a common enemy. ........

The government's data is so strikingly low that there are inevitably questions about whether it's accurate, but the overwhelming consensus from the medical and diplomatic community is that there is no reason to doubt it.

......... the kind of policies applied in Vietnam "just wouldn't stand up" in countries now suffering widespread infections, but for the few countries yet to be hit "the lesson is there".


Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Coronavirus News (105)

Coronavirus: How 'overreaction' made Vietnam a virus success Despite a long border with China and a population of 97 million people, Vietnam has recorded only just over 300 cases of Covid-19 on its soil and not a single death.



Wearing a mask can significantly reduce coronavirus transmission, study on hamsters claims
Leaked Pentagon memo warns of 'real possibility' of COVID-19 resurgence, vaccine not coming until summer 2021
Gudrid Thorbjarnardóttir … the woman who found the New World 500 years before Columbus Considering the era, the challenges, the risks, her gender and the cultural norms of the time, Gudrid’s a 10 out of 10.
Biden, Abrams: November election a chance to correct 'deep institutional racism' exposed by pandemic
Joe Biden finally makes up nickname for Trump: ‘President Tweety’
Promising Early Stage Vaccine Trial Sends Stocks Soaring
The unsurpassed 125-year-old network that feeds Mumbai Dabbawalas deliver hundreds of thousands of meals on foot and by bike in one of India's busiest cities every day. The new wave of food-delivery start-ups wants to know how they do it....... dabbawalas have been doing it for 125 years – and the newcomers have much to learn. ...... Despite relying on an unskilled workforce, a two-tier management system and nothing more high-tech than Mumbai’s train network, this 5,000-strong cooperative is recognised as one of the world’s most efficient logistics systems. They make a tidy side-line hosting executives from delivery giants like FedEx and Amazon. Even Richard Branson has spent a day learning their secrets. ....... Unlike Deliveroo and Uber Eats – or India’s home-grown equivalents, such as Swiggy and Runnr – dabbawalas do not deliver restaurant food. Instead, they pick up home-cooked meals – mostly from the customers’ own houses – and deliver them to their workplace in time for lunch. ....... "People think it's a luxury getting food delivered to their office,” says Subodh Sangle, coordinator of the Mumbai dabbawalas. “But we make our service available to everyone from the security guard to the CEO.” ....... Most dabbawalas are quick to dismiss their new digital rivals. “There's no competition. They won’t be able to keep up with the service we provide,” says Gavande. “There's only one Mumbai dabbawala.” ....... The organisation runs its low-cost service at a very high level of performance. A 2010 study by the Harvard Business School graded it “Six Sigma”, which means

the dabbawalas make fewer than 3.4 mistakes per million transactions

. With deliveries to and from roughly 200,000 customers each day that translates to little more than 400 delayed or missing dabbas in a year. ........ Dabbawalas are waved through by members of the public and traffic police alike. “If you see a dabbawalla in the street, you will give way” ......... This complex series of exchanges relies on

an esoteric alphanumeric code scrawled on each lunchbox

– indecipherable to the uninitiated but designed to be easily understood by all dabbawalas. ............ A dabbawalas’ commitment to the job is partly because it pays well – roughly 12,000 rupees (£140) a month, a good salary in India for what is essentially unskilled labour. ......... And as a cooperative all dabbawalas are equal partners with supervisors called mukadams who are elected. ............ how to navigate Mumbai. The way Google Maps divides the city into neighbourhoods does not take traffic into account, but years of experience had taught the dabbawalas where the bottlenecks were. “No other system has this level of data for each locality" ......... Dabbawalas are not afraid to embrace new opportunities, however. They are talking to Indian e-commerce giant Flipkart about carrying out last-mile deliveries. And one group is working with start-up Raw Pressery to deliver health juices on-demand. .......... Profits from these newer ventures are bumping the dabbawalas’ salaries up from 12,000 to 20,000 rupees a month ......... the dabbawalas’ spiritual connection to the job will always give them an edge. "New companies give their customers good offers but they’re just interested in capturing the market,” he says. "The dabbawalas have deeper reasons for doing it. Serving their customers is like serving their god.”




अतिक्रमित क्षेत्रमा सशस्त्र प्रहरी पठाएर राजधानीको सडकमा सेना : श्रीमतीलाई अस्पताल राखेर ब्लड बैंक हिँडेका वृद्धलाई नांगै बनाइयो
Early results from Moderna coronavirus vaccine trial show participants developed antibodies against the virus

Biden Should Pick Abrams



Biden has been wise to declare early that his pick will be a woman. Good thing. About time. But who? Michelle Obama? Elizabeth Warren? Stacey Abrams? Kamala Harris? Who? Amy?

To think out loud the name of Michelle Obama was a respectful thing to do, but he was not serious. Barack Obama pulled the strings around South Carolia and after and a deflated balloon rose to the skies. So a nod makes sense.

But Michelle is symbolism. She is not a political animal.

Elizabeth Warren does represent the Bernie wing of the party. And the need to build a bridge to that wing is premier. And considering how south the economy is ready to go, the Dems might as well end up with 60 seats in the Senate. And you will need workhorses like Elizabeth Warren in the Senate to build ambitious legislation.

Elizabeth Warren is good where she is. She is needed there. She should be Majority Leader. Or at least a Senator with seniority.

Kamala Harris might be too cheerful to be Vice President. Let her be Attorney General. California is already in the bag.

Andrew Yang should be Secretary of Labor with a mandate to bring about a Universal Basic Income.

Pete should be Secretary of Urban Affairs. He has been Mayor of a blighted city in the Rust Belt. And his symbolism is large.

Tulsi Gabbard would make for a wonderful Ambassador to the UN.

That leaves only one good option: Stacey. She should be VP.

That is how Biden thanks the voters that resurrected him. He was a dead horse until South Carolina.

With Stacey Abrahms on the ticket, Biden carries Georgia.

Let me be clear. Biden will win with or without Stacey. Biden will carry all the swing states, with or without Stacey. But Biden will not win Georgia without Stacey Abrams on the ticket. With Stacey Abrams on the ticket, Biden will carry 40 states in the Fall. It will be a clean sweep.

Should he be lucky enough to end up with 60 Senators, he could remake America and the world. Green New Deal can happen under Biden-Abrams.

The curious thing is, with Bernie on the ticket, the Dems could have lost in November, recession or no recession. But a Biden presidency could actually deliver something like Medicar For All, or at least a strong public option.

In the meantime, we have President Tweety.