Friday, March 13, 2020

Coronavirus News (1)

The Coronavirus Pandemic Is Like The Spanish Flu (1918-1922)
The Most Responsible Head Of State On The Planet

America is shutting itself down There are big panics like the selloff on Wall Street. There are little panics, like stores being cleaned out of toilet paper. But everywhere, there seems to suddenly be panic. Travel is canceled. Schools are canceled. Broadway is canceled. Basketball is canceled. Disneyland is canceled. ...... The worldwide coronavirus pandemic undercuts the entire system on which modern society is based. ...... While the virus promises to test the capacity of the US health system, it is already testing the economy and the social system. Fighting this requires keeping people apart when so much of the economy is built around gatherings and services. ....... Help is not on the way. Not yet ..... no one really knows how to deal with this pandemic. And that's the most frightening thing of all.

As coronavirus recession threatens, economists recommend cash for people Jason Furman, an economic adviser to President Obama, has called on the government to send $1,000 to every individual, and an additional $500 per child.

Coronavirus altering 2020 election in fundamental ways Trump's behemoth ground operation, which is a joint effort between the Republican National Committee and the campaign (Trump Victory), had planned "national week of training" set to begin Friday with events taking place across the country (including states heavily impacted by the virus) —and as of now, the campaign events are moving forward as normal ...... "Unfortunately, this virus laid bare the severe shortcomings of the current administration. Public fears are being compounded by a pervasive lack of trust in this president. Fueled by adversarial relationships with the truth that he continues to have," Biden said

Trump attacks CDC over coronavirus preparedness, though he eliminated an office dedicated to pandemic prevention President Trump on Friday morning attacked the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a federal agency he oversees, over the slow federal response to the coronavirus outbreak, and he attempted to lay blame for the lack of testing on his predecessors despite having disbanded a White House office focused on pandemic preparedness. ..... Trump has repeatedly claimed that testing has gone smoothly, and falsely said last week that anyone who wants a test can get one.

Ohio health official estimates 100,000 people in state have coronavirus at least 1 percent of the population in the state has the virus.....

Not everyone with the virus has symptoms, and about 80 percent of people with the virus do not end up needing hospitalization

....... The possible numbers in Ohio are a stark illustration of how many cases could be in other states as well ..... They are closing schools in the state for three weeks and banning large gatherings of 100 or more people. ..... the number of cases of the virus doubles every six days. ...... "there are only so many ventilators," referring to machines that allow people to breathe when they cannot on their own .....

Models indicate the number of cases could peak in late April to mid-May

...... "This will be the thing this generation remembers"

The Coronavirus Outbreak Could Spread To Millions In The US. We Don’t Have Nearly Enough Hospital Beds If It Does. the US could be headed toward 150,000 COVID-19 cases by the end of the month, with only 45,000 ICU hospital beds nationwide. ..... Total case numbers have grown at a rough average rate of 30% a day in the US since the last week of February. ...... the US will have more than 8,000 cases by next week, 40,000 cases in two weeks, and nearly 150,000 cases by the end of the month ...... A “severe” outbreak would hospitalize 9.6 million people. .... Since the most severe symptom associated with COVID-19 is the respiratory failure associated with severe pneumonia, the biggest worry aside from capacity at hospitals is about the number of ventilators, as well as the specialists who can staff them. There are an estimated 150,000 respiratory therapists in the US, and about 160,000 machines. ....... A tidal wave of sudden cases in just a few weeks will swamp emergency rooms, but the same number of cases spread over months will test the surge capacity of hospitals without overwhelming them. Two hundred thousand ICU cases in the “moderate” pandemic scenario hitting hospitals in the next three months would overwhelm the 46,500 ICU beds we might have available. But spread over a year, those 200,000 cases would be a difficult, but possible, strain for our hospitals to handle....... a country waking up daily to hidden blooms of cases suddenly revealed by fresh testing.

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Thursday, March 12, 2020

The Coronavirus Pandemic Is Like The Spanish Flu (1918-1922)

The Most Responsible Head Of State On The Planet



The coronavirus pandemic is like the Spanish flu from a hundred years ago. That is the parallel that comes to mind. The projections are rather drastic. If half the global population gets infected, or even one third, and the fatality rate ends up being just 1%, then

Population: 8 billion
1/3rd of that: 2.6 billion
1% fatality rate: 26 million
2% fatality rate: 52 million
3% fatality rate: 78 million

These are World War II-style numbers.

This could play out over a period of 18 to 36 months. The global economy will see a major hit. The geopolitical map will be looking fundamentally different.

There is no cure. Social isolation seems to be the only thing that works. But it is hard to organize.

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Wednesday, March 11, 2020

The Most Responsible Head Of State On The Planet

Merkel Expects 60-70 Per Cent of Germans to be Infected With Coronavirus Parliament falls silent as German Chancellor drops shocking number. Angela Merkel says she expects around 60-70 per cent of Germans will be infected with the coronavirus, which equates to about 53 million people. Reportedly, the German Parliament fell completely silent when Merkel stated the number. News outlet Bild reported the German Chancellor’s comments, which echoed numbers forecast by Berlin virologist Christian Drosten, who added that such a total could take 2 years or longer to reach. Given the fact that coronavirus has a mortality rate of around 1 per cent, this could equate to over half a million deaths Germany, which has recorded 1,565 coronavirus cases and two deaths so far
Coronavirus: Up to 70% of Germany could become infected - Merkel
60% to 70% of the German population will be infected by the coronavirus, Merkel says






Now, months after reports of an outbreak began, the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has infected nearly 100,000 and killed just over 3,300 people around the world — a rapid spread in which some historians see parallels to deadly historical diseases.............. the Spanish flu pandemic that killed tens of millions around the world during the years between 1918 and 1922. ............ We’re about three months into the coronavirus outbreak, whereas the real devastation of the 1918 flu began about six to seven months in, after the virus started to cause deadly, rapidly-developing bacterial infections and pneumonia deep in patients’ lungs................ political leaders — and to a lesser extent the communities they govern — are making the same mistakes they did in the past................ On March 11, 1918, an Army private in Kansas complained about flu-like symptoms. By that afternoon, there were over 100 other sick soldiers. Within five weeks, that number increased ten-fold and 47 soldiers had died................ COVID-19 is following a very different trajectory than the Spanish flu; there’s no global war raging, but there are fast and easier ways for a higher volume of people to travel quickly across the globe, spreading the virus far from where it began.................. isolation and quarantine have worked best if enacted early enough. Limiting exposure to disease is still among the best ways to limit its spread. The challenge was — and remains — the ability to pinpoint infection quickly, and isolate the patient before they spread it to others............. legislation that, in the face of the Spanish flu, let authorities show up and cart people off to isolation hospitals — a policy that he said hit racial minorities, the poor, and anyone else living in overcrowded areas the hardest................... the only reason the pandemic is called the Spanish flu is because Spain, a neutral country, allowed its newspapers to report about the disease.............. The government relied heavily on the Sedition Act to stamp out news about the pandemic lest it embarrass the state or detract from the war effort, according to Smithsonian Magazine. The result was a media ecosystem full of inaccurate information and propaganda telling the public not to worry, all while cities like Philadelphia turned into ghost towns and entire communities were wiped out.................. Now, having learned seemingly nothing from China’s errors, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly downplayed, and spread false information about, the outbreak.............. the way authorities have controlled the narrative around the outbreak reveals that their priorities are backwards. Instead of putting the concern for human life and citizens’ welfare first, leaders like Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have focused more on national pride.......... A vaccine won’t be ready for at least a year............... healthcare remains prohibitively expensive to many in the U.S.............. those historical laws that let officials show up and take people into quarantine? Mooney says that by and large, the rich went unaffected.
travel only permitted for work or family emergencies ............ the best thing was for citizens to stay at home, in large part to protect the most fragile members of society. .............. Outside of China, Italy now has the highest number of deaths due to the coronavirus outbreak with 463 — a rise of 97 in just the last 24 hours. There are now over 9,000 confirmed cases, surpassing South Korea ............... a total ban of public gatherings, including all football matches, across the entire country. ............ inmates at 22 Italian prisons rioted on Monday, escaping facilities and kidnapping officers ........... The riots also occurred after Italy’s interior ministry announced severe penalties, three months in prison, for anybody who attempts to flee the lockdown in northern Italy.
A number of airlines are being forced to operate near-empty “ghost flights” after the coronavirus outbreak caused sweeping cancellations and demand for airfare to plummet across the globe. ................ “Passenger demand for air travel has dramatically fallen due to COVID-19 and in some instances we are being forced to fly almost empty planes or lose our valuable slots,” CEO of Virgin Atlantic Shai Weiss told CNBC via email on Tuesday............. major European airports including London Heathrow and Munich are turning into ghost towns with empty check-in counters. ............. the flights are literally just burning jet fuel. ............. the industry could lose more than $113 billion revenue this year alone .

What would happen if the world reacted to climate change like it’s reacting to the coronavirus? What would a fast, coordinated, collective response to climate change look like?
The Extraordinary Decisions Facing Italian Doctors There are now simply too many patients for each one of them to receive adequate care.
Jersey City school district is preparing for potential 3 weeks of closures in wake of coronavirus
Coronavirus Snarls Trans-Pacific Shipping and Ripples Through U.S. Business There are few China-bound vessels and an imbalance in shipping containers, especially the refrigerated ones used for farm products; ‘It’s cutthroat’ ...... The coronavirus epidemic is upending the carefully calibrated logistics of global shipping, as plunging exports from China disrupt the trade of American goods, especially farm products such as fruit and meat destined for Asia.
‘Wildly unprepared’: survey of US nurses highlights coronavirus concerns A northern California nurse criticizes the CDC for delays in testing after she fell ill while caring for a patient with coronavirus
The Worst Outcome If somebody other than Donald Trump were in the White House, the coronavirus crisis would not be unfolding this way...... At every turn, President Trump’s policy regarding coronavirus has unfolded as if guided by one rule: How can I make this crisis worse? ...... The financial markets have plunged into a 2008-style crash, auguring a recession, perhaps a severe one. The Trump administration has had almost two months to think about this crisis. ...... a classic Trump formulation. It seeks to protect America by erecting a wall against the world, without thinking very hard how or whether the wall can work. The disease is already here. The numbers only look low because of our prior failure to provide adequate testing. They will not look low even four days from now. And those infected with the virus can travel from other countries and on other routes.......... There is always something malign in Trump’s incompetence. He has no care or concern for others; he cannot absorb the trouble and suffering of others as real. He monotones his way through words of love and compassion, but those words plainly have no content or meaning for him. The only thing that is real is his squalid vanity. This virus threatens to pierce that vanity, so he denied it as long as he could. What he refuses to acknowledge cannot be real, can it? ....... And even now that he has acknowledged the crisis, he still cannot act, because he does not know what to do. His only goal now is to shove blame onto others. Americans have to face the fact that in the grip of this pandemic, the Oval Office is for all practical purposes as empty as the glazed eyes of the man who spoke from that office tonight.
India suspends most visas to halt coronavirus spread India has 73 confirmed cases of the virus, the health ministry says. This number is expected to grow in coming days, as the results for tests conducted earlier become available........ "It would be near impossible for India to force its citizens into mass quarantine and hospitalise people in numbers like China"..... All schools, colleges and movie theatres in the capital, Delhi, will be shut until 31 March in a bid to help control the spread of the virus ......

"We don't have data to support the theory that the coronavirus won't be as effective in summers"

...... a passenger from Dubai, who was tested at the Mangalore airport and was found to have mild fever, ran away from a government hospital where he was taken for observation.
St. Patrick's Day parades canceled nationally amid coronavirus outbreaks
California governor calls for all public gatherings to be canceled due to coronavirus

‘He’s gonna get us all killed’: sense of unease after Trump coronavirus speech The president began his speech as many leaders do, then reverted to his familiar nationalism and threw in a bit of campaigning ...... He went on to talk of the pathogen as if it was a foreign army or terrorist network. “The virus will not have a chance against us,” he said. “No nation is more prepared or more resilient than the United States.” ...... “The militaristic, nationalistic language of Trump’s speech tonight is striking: a ‘foreign virus,’ keeping out China and Europe.” ..... David Litt, who wrote speeches for Obama, posted: “As a former presidential speechwriter, my careful rhetorical analysis is that he’s gonna get us all killed.”

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Wednesday, March 04, 2020

A Biden Bloomberg Ticket Would Be Best

I don't see Bernie making a comeback. He had his warm month. Now it is Biden as far as the eyes can see. The guy reminds people of Barack Obama, and I wonder why, I wonder how. Not all that is white is white.

Bernie is inflexible: when Medicare For All is not catching fire you tack and offer the public option for now. He lacks nuance: enough said. He has blind spots: you don't praise Castro in Florida. That is not to say Castro can not be praised, but context is important. I think Cuba has had great education and health for a poor country. That Cuba beats the mighty US on infant mortality is an objective fact, even in the Trump fact-free era.

Trump wants to hop onto the time machine and go back to the 1950s. Looks like the Dems just want to go back to the 2010s. It is the Obama stimulus that has created the jobs of the past four years. Biden can take credit while he is at it. He was Vice.

Now the race is on for the number two spot, and I make a case for Mike Bloomberg. "Money talks." That is a Mike Bloomberg quote.

There is the Bloomberg infrastructure, unprecedented, and the best in the business. Biden will have it no matter if he puts Bloomberg on the ticket or not. But don't tell me that makes no difference to Team Bloomberg. For a campaign that started so late, a second place is the first place. It will be victory.

A Biden-Bloomberg ticket will 100% win in November. I will bet you 10 dollars. Who will you rather have, a real billionaire or a fake one? Some people will have the fake one, and that's okay. This is a democracy.

If Biden has been VP of the nation, Bloomberg has been a three term Mayor of NYC. NYC represents all the Dem hubs in the country. Dems are primarily urban. Respect that.

Bernie and Warren can still rage in the US Senate for the public option, why not! Mayor Pete can still be Secretary of Urban Affairs. Klobuchar can keep representing the great state of Minnesota, now more visibly. Kamala Devi Harris can be Attorney General.

But Mike is the only number two who can guarantee victory come November. Every other way it is a 50-50 chance. And don't put your bet on the Coronavirus. It will be gone by summer. You need Mike.








































After Tuesday’s vote Mike Bloomberg followed them. The hope is that he will put his formidable electoral machine and even more formidable wallet behind Mr Biden.


Why Biden Is the Change Candidate




if nothing else the Democratic impeachment effort results in the end of Collins’ Senate career and gives Democrats the 50 seats they need for control of the Senate with a Democrat in the White House next year- perhaps another indication that Nancy Pelosi is playing three dimensional chess.
Parscale: In October, 2019, Thomas B. Edsall wrote a long Times column called “Trump Is Winning the Online War,” listing several of the “technological advances that have allowed Trump and the Republican Party to leave Democrats in the dust.” If money were no object, some of these deficits could be overcome quickly; others might not be surmountable by November........ “In comparison to Trump’s operation, Mike Bloomberg is the only Democrat positioned to compete with him on every single digital platform.”
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Biden's Momentum Now


Joe Biden is in the lead now, and the favored to win the nomination. He wants to strengthen Obamacare, add the public option to it, a tall task in itself, and keep the private insurers in the game. Medicare For All makes too many people jittery. That is a slogan, that is no plan, they think. They hear Bernie say, we will blow up the building first before we build a new one. And a lot of people go, but where do I live in the meantime?

I have noticed since the beginning, Bernie is doing worse this time than he did in 2016 on all sorts of metrics. And as AOC went away, so did the young voters.

Coronavirus will beat Trump. Biden might benefit. He will also benefit from the Bloomberg infrastructure, which is formidable.

Does the number two spot go to Warren or Bloomberg? Or could it be Bernie?

Joe Biden was another one who sat out in 2016 because he thought it was Hillary's year.

Bloomberg considering dropping out after Biden rout
What Went Down On Super Tuesday
Bloomberg on Warren: 'I didn't realize she's still in'
Democrats Decide That Joe Biden, as Risky as He Ever Was, Is the Safest Bet The former vice president had the Super Tuesday of his dreams, winning in places he hasn’t even set foot in recently. ....... But a week ago, the result would have been something close to unthinkable. ...... Lifted by a hasty unity among center-left Democrats disinclined toward political revolution, Mr. Biden has propelled himself in the span of three days from electoral failure to would-be juggernaut..... tactical voters who think little of Senator Bernie Sanders and fear that his nomination would mean four more years of President Trump. ..... Bloomberg’s first brush with national voters yielded meager returns on a colossal financial investment...... When it mattered most, though, the judgment came swiftly from Sanders-averse Democrats. ...... All right, we’ll take him. ...... “John Kerry, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton,” said Rebecca Kirszner Katz, a veteran progressive strategist. “All safe choices.” ....... Certainly Mr. Trump would appear to have his preferences: Last year, he was impeached after trying to enlist a foreign power’s help to damage Mr. Biden. ...... That Mr. Biden’s fortunes have changed says more about the context of this primary than the content of his campaign......... Mr. Bloomberg flailed on the debate stage as he stepped out from behind the reputational curtain of his ubiquitous advertisements. And many in the party have remained uncomfortable with the kind of unswerving progressivism that Mr. Sanders demands. ...... a Biden-Sanders matchup is the logical venue for the party’s foremost ideological debate about the proper scope and ambition of government

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Saturday, February 29, 2020

Imran, Imran

Imran Khan is the leader Pakistan needs today: thoughtful and empathetic



Pakistan is trying to change. It won’t happen in two years, perhaps, not in five years. It may even take a decade...... Khan’s intentions are clear, coherent, and blemish-free. ..... I voted for Khan. I trust Khan. So far....... On December 10, 2019, Khan tweeted: “Inspired by the ideals preached by our Prophet PBUH, especially in his last sermon, and duties enshrined in our Constitution, my govt is committed to the protection of human rights for all its citizens without discrimination.” .... Not a very kind and just place at the moment but based on Khan’s words and actions it is a safe assumption that Pakistan may become the best of itself someday...... Khan sees those who thought their life didn’t matter.
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Friday, February 28, 2020

The Pogrom In Delhi

The message from the BJP is clear: Elect whomever you like. We are still in power. Call the police; they work for us. Appeal to the courts; we’ll neutralize any judges who don’t toe our line. Continue to dissent, and we will set the mob on you.
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