Saturday, December 14, 2019

2019 Photos

2019 Photos

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Has India Gone Crazy?

How Citizenship Act, NRC will alter the idea of India, writes Barkha Dutt All of us will have to prove our Indianness. And the poorest and the Muslims will be the most hit ............. The government insists that the amended new law on citizenship (the Citizenship Amendment Act or CAA) is not anti-Muslim. In fact, it claims that Indian Muslims are not even impacted by the legislation. Its stormtroopers on social media have been deployed to vociferously argue that those criticising the revamped rules — I am among them — are begrudging fast-track protection to persecuted religious minorities from neighbouring countries. .......... About 1.9 million people found themselves excluded from the NRC in Assam, but these were not just Muslim migrants from Bangladesh — the suddenly stateless included lakhs of Hindus as well. What may now happen is something like this. The citizenship law will throw a protective shield over the disenfranchised non-Muslims; the Muslim migrants will then be left to appeal before the foreigners’ tribunals. The new law also offers legal immunity to non-Muslims from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan from jail, deportation and other criminal proceedings. In other words, the only people in internment centres will likely be Muslim migrants.............. For those who say that this does not impact India’s 200 million Muslim citizens, let me ask, how can you be untouched by the signalling that there is now a hierarchy of faiths among our people? ....... If refugees have been living in abject conditions of poverty and statelessness — and I myself have met Hindus from Pakistan living for decades in dismal conditions in Rajasthan — and deserve the magnanimity of the Indian State, that should extend to all of them, irrespective of their religion. It should include Sri Lankan Tamil Hindus and persecuted Rohingyas of Myanmar. And if our national policy is that illegal entrants are infiltrators, overrunning our land and culture, and stretching our already tight resources, then that too should apply to all of those who come into India without papers and documentation and visas. How can the BJP argue this both ways?......... In Assam, they want both the Muslims and Bengali Hindus who came in after 1971 to go back. In other parts of the east, there is similar hostility towards the Chakmas. In an area where there are more than 200 indigenous communities, ethnicity, language, and culture are as emotive, and, sometimes more, than religion. ........ begs the question. Why do it at all? Why create a crisis from two decades of peace; why fix what isn’t broken; why upend the very idea of nationhood that distinguishes India from its neighbours; and why bring religion into who can be Indian or not? ...... The CAA plus NRC equation will change not just the arithmetic but the very philosophy of India.



Modi's mandate was for double-digit growth rates. Modi's mandate was for a five trillion dollar economy. Modi's mandate was for economic development. This is social regression. This is going backward. At this pace, this is Modi's last term in office: Maharashtra shows the way. This is a gross misreading of the mandate. It is not about what you did or did not write in your manifesto. How many voters read your manifesto? Forget voters. How many of your BJP leaders read your manifesto? What you did to Kashmir, now you are doing to all of India. The social fabric of India will be in tatters at this pace.

The US is the richest country. And the US is incapable of deporting its 10 million-plus undocumented. India is less rich, to put it generously, and it has a much larger population. This attempt is bigotry outright. This is ill. This is about marginalizing the marginalized. This is cruel.

The political "genius" here is to create a refugee crisis, the largest in the world, where none exists.

If this bill is unconstitutional, its opponents need to mount a legal challenge, instead of only issuing press releases. And the political blowback needs to happen. Modi is clearly steering India back to its "Hindu growth rate" days.

‘Rahul Jinnah’ a more appropriate name for you: BJP hits back at Rahul Gandhi Veer Savarkar is revered as a Hindutva icon for the BJP but is accused by its rivals of tendering apologies to the British government to secure release from jail when India was under colonial rule. ....... Addressing the Congress’ mega “Bharat Bachao Rally” at Ramlila Grounds in the national capital, Gandhi had turned down the BJP’s demand for an apology for his “rape in India” comment, saying his name was Rahul Gandhi not Rahul Savarkar, and that he would never apologise for speaking the truth.

Citizenship Amendment Bill: India's West Bengal hit by protests
Violent clashes continue in India over new citizenship bill Protests spread to Delhi as BJP government accused of making Muslims second-class citizens
India just redefined its citizenship criteria to exclude Muslims With a new law — and massive new detention camps — the country is undermining its status as a democracy....... India is home to 200 million Muslims. ...... The legislation turns religion into a means of deciding whom to treat as an illegal immigrant — and whom to fast-track for citizenship. ...... When the NRC was published in August, around 2 million people — many of them Muslims, some of them Hindus — found that their names were not on it. They were told they had a limited time in which to prove that they are, in fact, citizens. Otherwise, they can be rounded up into massive new detention camps and, ultimately, deported. ...... So far, this measure affects potentially 2 million people, not all 200 million Muslims in India. However, Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has said it plans to extend the NRC process across the country....... Muslims have faced increasing discrimination and violence over the past few years under Modi’s BJP. But the one-two punch of the NRC followed by the CAB takes this to a new level. The country is beginning to look less like a secular democracy and more like a Hindu nationalist state. .......

If the Indian government proceeds with its plan, in a worst-case scenario we could be looking at the biggest refugee crisis on the planet. The United Nations, Human Rights Watch, and the US Commission on International Religious Freedom have all warned that this could soon turn into a humanitarian disaster of horrifying proportions.

...... Shashi Tharoor, whose Congress party opposes the CAB, dubbed it “fundamentally unconstitutional.” ..... Cedric Prakash, a Jesuit priest and human rights advocate, said in an emailed statement that by “assuring citizenship to all undocumented persons except those of the Muslim faith, the CAB risks ... destroying the secular and democratic tenets of our revered Constitution.” ...... India’s Constitution guarantees everyone equality under the law. Religion is not a criterion for citizenship eligibility, a decision that goes all the way back to the 1940s, when India was founded as a secular state with special protections for minorities like Muslims. ....... Harsh Mander, a noted rights advocate of Sikh origins, wrote that the CAB represents “the gravest threat to India’s secular democratic Constitution since India became a republic.” He said that if the bill becomes law, he’ll declare himself a Muslim out of solidarity. Meanwhile, he’s also calling for Indians to fight the CAB with a nationwide civil disobedience movement. ...... Already, protests are underway. In Assam’s capital, authorities have shut down the internet and implemented a curfew. ................ “The idea of India that emerged from the independence movement,” said a letter signed by more than 1,000 Indian intellectuals, “is that of a country that aspires to treat people of all faiths equally.” But this bill, the intellectuals said, is “a radical break with this history” and will “greatly strain the pluralistic fabric of the country.” ......... The US Commission on International Religious Freedom said India is taking a “dangerous turn in the wrong direction,” adding that the US should weigh sanctions against India if it enshrines the bill in law. ......... The only hope for those who oppose it is that it will be struck down in court on the grounds that it’s unconstitutional. ........ Those in Assam whose names do not appear on the NRC have been told the burden of proof is on them to prove that they are citizens. But many rural residents don’t have birth certificates or other papers, and even among those who do, many can’t read them; a quarter of the population in Assam state is illiterate........... Residents do get the chance to appeal to a Foreigners’ Tribunal and, if it rejects their claims to citizenship, to the High Court of Assam or even the Supreme Court. But if all that fails, they can be sent to one of 10 mass detention camps the government plans to build, complete with boundary walls and watchtowers. ........ The first camp, currently under construction, is the size of seven football fields. Even nursing mothers and children will be held there. “Children lodged in detention centers are to be provided educational facilities in nearby local schools,” an Indian official said. ....... If the detainees in the camps end up being expelled from India — and that is the government’s plan — this could constitute a wave of forced migration even greater than that triggered by Myanmar in 2017, when hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims were displaced........ And it’s not clear where the newly stateless people would go. Neighboring Bangladesh has already said it won’t take them. All this has induced such intense anxiety that some Muslims are committing suicide........ Under Modi, vigilante Hindus have increasingly perpetrated hate crimes against Muslims, sometimes in an effort to scare their communities into moving away, other times to punish them for selling beef (cows are considered sacred in Hinduism). And this summer, Modi erased the statehood of Jammu and Kashmir, India’s only Muslim-majority state, which had previously enjoyed considerable autonomy over its own affairs. ........ “These infiltrators are eating away at our country like termites,” BJP president and home minister Amit Shah said at an April rally. “The NRC is our means of removing them.” Shah has openly said the goal is to deport those who are deemed illegal immigrants...... Last month, Shah said the government will conduct another count of citizens — this time nationwide. This could be used to clamp down on Muslims throughout India, potentially triggering a huge humanitarian disaster.



India passes controversial citizenship bill that excludes Muslims
India Passes Controversial Citizenship Bill That Would Exclude Muslims

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UAE: Wonder Nation



The UAE is a remarkable nation. For a country with a population of 10 million to hit the Top 10 countries index on power, I mean that is quite something. This is an Israel-like wow factor going on. You have to ask, how did this come to be?

I have only gotten to learn about the UAE in recent weeks. There was so much I did not know. There is so much I still don't know.

But I came to learn that the federation was a voluntary coming together of seven different adjacent monarchies. I don't know of another example in the world where something like that happened. Every other example I know is of forceful conquest. Akbar would conquer in India and then turn the local king into his local tax collector. That was considered enlightened and generous.

Then I thought the monarch of the UAE simply prefers the title of president. But no, that is actually a duly elected position.

Then, boom, I learned the UAE has a federal parliament that, step by step, is moving towards universal franchise. The idea is that down the line every citizen of the UAE will vote. That is a declared goal. And I think that is remarkable. The UAE did not need an Arab Spring to get to this.

But, get this. Half of the federal parliament is female, by royal decree. Or, rather, presidential decree. That happened only a few weeks ago. And there were no hiccups in the population after that. Women in America don't see this happening for another 100 years.

Even more remarkable, the UAE passed anti-gender hostility in the workplace set of laws recently. They are remarkably enlightened, really well thought through. I don't see the US Congress doing something like that, and the #MeToo movement has raged in America for several years now.

Dubai is the most culturally diverse city on earth. And by a wide, wide margin. That is my number one thing to like about Dubai. In Dubai 10% are citizens, 90% are people who have come from 200 plus countries to work, make a living. Shanghai beats NYC on physical infrastructure. But Shanghai is nowhere close to attempting NYC's diversity. And Dubai makes NYC look like a 19th-century city.

A random global poll might show that Dubai is what people know. But the UAE is way more than Dubai. Abu Dhabi is only 90 miles away. That is a sweet 10 minutes on a hyperloop.

Dubai has already done what the region at large needs to do. Dubai was forced on that path because it had less oil than others. But now it has created a roadmap for the region at large. The post-oil future looks like Dubai. I think Dubai is the inspiration for NEOM.

Dubai: Remarkable City
NEOM: A Fundamental Departure For All Humanity?


Exciting as the present is, the future is even more exciting. It is my firm belief that Africa and South Asia are the next two Chinas. And the twin cities of Dubai and Abu Dhabi are well situated. What Hong Kong did for China Dubai could do for Africa and South Asia.

As the region at large attempts to emulate Dubai, Dubai simply needs to move higher up on the economic food chain. That higher ground is technology. What will happen in tech over the next 25 years is 100 times bigger than what has happened over the past 25. The Internet has been the appetizer. India has the tech human capital that powered Silicon Valley. The Middle East has the money. And the market is all around.







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Friday, December 13, 2019

Global Energy Demand


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Britain's Vote

Has the economic theory on trade been debunked by political process? I don't think that is the case. Trade leads to rises in productivity, but if the new riches are not widely shared, then the people will revolt. I think that is the message.

The UK is in a political funk. 52% of the voters voted for remain parties. And yet the results show a sweeping victory for the "Get Brexit Done" party. The country could use political reforms. But I don't see them coming.

If Brexit will happen, Scotland will break away. Northern Ireland might also. Europe is the "country" they might choose.

I think Boris Johnson and Donald Trump attempting a trade deal will be quite a horror show. The National Health Service will be part of the discussion. That will cause a lot of churn.

Socialism makes people uncomfortable. People clearly did not like the idea of someone like Corbyn coming anywhere close to 10 Downing Street. I think the vote was more about that than Brexit. Although clarity of message always helps. BoJo had great clarity. Corbyn was all over the map on the message. Was he for Brexit? Against? Was he for a second referendum?

This is a democratic downsizing of Britain. People are choosing this.

Plenty of Brits of South Asian origin are next in line for power. BoJo was London Mayor. So is Sadiq. BoJo's cabinet colleagues are several Indians. England + Wales might end up with a brown Prime Minister before 2030. That is one extrapolation.

It is still not computing. A hard Brexit will bring all sorts of horrors. I think, despite this vote, the negotiations with Europe will simply continue. A hard Brexit will form bread lines in England.

Britain's Brexit and the US-China trade war both point out the need for WTO reform. They don't suggest ending trade.

Most people lining up to replace Corbyn are women. I think that is positive.

There are those who are saying Labour lost this election, as well as the next one. One can't be so sure about that. Now BoJo has to deliver. That is the hard part. A clean Brexit is a fantasy, not a smart option. Britain has never been an island.

As for ideology, it is not that the market does not work. The market is not being allowed to work. Crony capitalism, bought capitalism is causing market distortions. It is not that democracy does not work. Democracy is not being allowed to work. A centrist leader who understands the implications of the impending fourth industrial revolution could build a counterweight. I have no idea who that is, or if someone of that description is waiting in the wings even.

In the US that might be a Pete-Yang ticket.

In the meantime, the world flirts with a willful global recession. You can badger trade for only so long before it has been too long.

What does Britain know and understand that France and Germany do not? All three are similar size economies.





U.K. Election Result Starts Clock on Brexit Talks With E.U. Few expect the negotiations on the country’s future trade and security relationship with the bloc to be quick or easy........... European leaders on Friday welcomed the clarity of the British election result, since they, too, want to “get Brexit done.” But Boris Johnson’s substantial majority will only start the clock on new negotiations about Britain’s future trading and security relationship with the European Union. ....... Few except Mr. Johnson expect the talks to be quick or easy. They can be quick, Brussels argues, if Britain agrees to keep its regulations and tariffs the same or very close to those of the bloc.......... But European leaders, in Brussels for the last day of a summit meeting, remain unsure whether Mr. Johnson, with his resounding mandate to ratify his Brexit deal by the end of January, will stick to his campaign pledge to finish any trade negotiation with the European Union by the end of 2020, or whether he will choose next summer to seek a year’s delay for longer talks.........

So long as the two sides are negotiating, Britain will be in a “transition” period, with its relationship with the European Union essentially unchanged, even if it will legally have ceased to be a member.

...... Brussels, in its conclusions on Brexit, is demanding a future relationship that “will have to be based on a balance of rights and obligations and ensure a level playing field.” That is Brussels-speak for British regulations and rules that do not diverge too far from Europe’s........ But if Mr. Johnson wants a free hand to make trade deals with the United States and other countries and to position Britain as more of a low-tax, light-regulation economy, Brussels will demand a tougher set of trade restrictions, unwilling to have a large competitor so close with significantly more favorable conditions for business and finance........ Mr. Johnson may favor a hard deadline, but that will put Britain, which will soon be negotiating from outside rather than inside the European Union, into a weaker position ......

The risk is that a quick trade negotiation, considered almost a contradiction in terms by trade experts, could fail, bringing Britain and Brussels back to the prospect of a “no deal” Brexit.

...... Many British businesspeople — and presumably some of the new Conservative Party members of Parliament from the industrial north of England — will want to be able to trade with Brussels with as little friction and paperwork as possible. That would mean closer alignment to the European Union than harder-line Brexiters advocate........ Leo Varadkar, the prime minister of Ireland, has managed his key goal: preventing the restoration of a hard border on the island with Northern Ireland. But he also wants to preserve close ties in a future relationship, he said on Friday — “a trade deal or trade deal plus” — to “ensure that we still have a tariff-free trade between Britain and the E.U. and a set of minimum standards.” ........ Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary insisted that the less-affluent countries of Central Europe must get generous financial guarantees. “We cannot allow Brussels bureaucrats to have poor people and poor countries to pay the costs of the fight against climate change,” he said.

‘No ifs, no buts’: Johnson vows to get Brexit done after sweeping election win
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Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Pete Buttigieg: Videos



Pete Buttigieg: First Impressions



Googling Pete

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Pete Buttigieg: First Impressions



After you have read four articles on Pete Buttigieg, it is fair to say you are no Pete Buttigieg expert, and I make no such claim. For a guy who was Barack Obama's first full-time volunteer in all of New York City - me - I am proudly a detached spectator this election season. And so, considering yesterday was the first time I looked into Pete ought to tell you. People are not paying attention just yet. Those who worry Pete is lagging in South Carolina don't remember Hillary was leading Obama by a wide margin in South Carolina at this stage of the game. South Carolina was talked of as Hillary's "firewall." That wall collapsed overnight, literally, when Obama won Iowa. To me it is a foregone conclusion that should Pete win both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will very likely be the nominee. I would give him a 95% chance.

So what are my first impressions? First of, this guy is not policy timid like the media makes him out to be. I found him anything but. He comes across as less policy timid than everyone who made a go at it over the past four decades. And it is partly him, mostly that Reagan, as he points out, has run out of steam.

The biggest lie about him is that Bernie and Warren are for Medicare For All, but Pete is not all that. He is very much for Medicare For All, but he thinks it needs to be phased in. And when phasing in if people who have private insurers wish to keep it that way, why not? If you listen to Pete, he is basically criticizing Bernie and Warren for not having thought this through. There is definitely anxiety among the 150 million-plus who have private insurance. They are not opposed to others having health care. But they hear Medicare For All and they hear, looks like Bernie wants me to take off my oxygen mask. That anxiety is real. And it is a symptom that Bernie has not done a good job of selling whatever it is that he is selling.



Pete is policy bold. I was surprised to learn. I should not have been. On politics, he is both agile and steel. More surprising than his policy boldness is that this guy is tough. Of all the Dems running, Donald Trump, if it is him and not Pence for some reason, would have the hardest time pushing Pete around. And he pushed everybody around in 2016.

Pete is the polar opposite of Trump on good manners and basic decency. Donald Trump gives you the impression his mother taught him table manners which he forgot at his mother's dinner table. I mean, the guy was discussing his penis size at a presidential debate during the 2016 cycle. Children are supposed to learn civics lessons from their president. Not from Donald though. Pete is amazingly decent. And after a few years of Donald, you thought that had gone to disuse.



Trump is fake tough. Trump is stupid tough. It is immigrants not automation. Pete is genuinely tough. He is comfortable enough in his toughness that he is not worried decency will cut him out to be a loser.

And Pete is young. That is no small detail. Half the field is way past retirement age. That makes Pete stand out. There is a freshness to his appeal.

I have yet to watch videos of Pete. I would like to watch a few hours of him. I have not yet watched even 10 minutes, I don't think so. YouTube makes you feel you can always look him up, so why rush!

If I had to take a guess, I'd say Pete might pick Andrew Yang for running mate, or someone who is not even running. If AOC were old enough, she would have been great, but she is not yet 35.

My first impressions of Pete Buttigieg are that he is a great human being, a great politician, and a remarkable policy guy. He would make for an excellent nominee.





Googling Pete
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Step By Step To Solving The Big Problems
If Pete Buttiegieg Were To Win Iowa
Two Out Of Three: Kamala, Andrew, Pete
Kamala Pete 2020

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