Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Videos: Imran, Salman, Sanjay, Tabu, Ajay, Nancy, Trump

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Formula For Peace: Iran-Saudi-US, Taliban-US, India-Pakistan



Iran-Saudi-US

Situation: War is not an option. An all-out attack by the US on Iran and an all-out counter-attack is unthinkable. For one, there would be a global Depression. It would be like the global economy had a heart attack. A seizure. Even when you are not talking, you are essentially "talking," you are signaling.

Interesting: The Saudis, the Iranians and the Americans all are on excellent terms with both Imran Khan and Narendra Modi. Both Modi and Imran should come together and help out Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the US.

Solution: Go back to the Obama nuclear deal and while you are at it, negotiate on all other outstanding matters. Give full engagement to Iran as a conclusion step. Maximum trade, maximum tourism.

Rationale: If you want democracy in Iran, you want to engage to the maximum. Trade also prevents war. If the Chinese and American supply chains were not such a spaghetti, we would already have seen a US-China hot war by now.



Taliban-US

Situation: The Taliban and the Afghan government refuse to talk to each other, but both are willing to talk to Imran Khan.

Interesting: Both the Afghan government and the Taliban are eager to talk to Imran Khan. The Indian government is on good terms with the Afghan government.

Solution: Integrate the Afghan Army and the Taliban to create one unified army, like happened with the Maoists of Nepal and the Nepal Army in the mid 2000s.

Bottomline: The Taliban must agree to become a political party and contest elections in Afghanistan.



India-Pakistan

Situation: Indian Kashmir is under curfew for more than 50 days running now.

Interesting: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the US are all on excellent terms with both Imran Khan and Narendra Modi.

Solution: Let Pakistan and India recognize the Line Of Control as the final border between the two countries and compete with each other to install democracy and human rights in both Kashmirs. This formula of recognizing the LOC as the final border is also the solution to the India-China border dispute. They have the longest disputed border in the world.

Bottomline: The curfew in Kashmir must be lifted immediately.



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Obama, Trump And Greta



Trump mocks teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg By late Tuesday morning, she had updated her Twitter bio to read: "A very happy young girl looking forward to a bright and wonderful future." ....... "Parents in America and around the world: he went after a 16 year old girl yesterday. ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ unfit to serve," Scaramucci tweeted on Tuesday. ...... crossed paths with Trump at the UN General Assembly. Video captured her staring down the US President. ...... The young Swede has been open about her diagnosis of Asperger's, calling it a "superpower" that helps her activism. ....... "My diagnosis has definitely helped me keep this focus. When you are interested about something you just continue to read about it and you get super focused"



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Monday, September 23, 2019

Howdy Modi, Says Imran

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Imran Wants To Lift 100 Million Pakistanis Out Of Poverty



So says Imran. I think he can get it done. Not only that, I don't see anyone else on the horizon who can get it done. How will he be able to get it done? Here are my ideas.
  1. Peace with India. This is the most important thing. Unless India and Pakistan can figure out a way to create lasting peace, Pakistan will have it tough. And the formula for peace is that both agree that the Line Of Control will be the final border, and both will compete with each other to bring democracy and human rights to Kashmiris on both sides. Then they have to focus on trade and gradually, over time, get the troops away from their borders. 
  2. Peace in Afghanistan. I'd say to Imran, break the rule and talk to the Taliban. There is something about this Pathan Saheb that the Pakistani Army Chief plays ball with him, and looks like the Taliban want to respectfully talk to him. Let them. The formula for peace there is like what happened in Nepal. The Maoists and the Nepal Army were at war. Peace meant the two armies got combined and became one. Incorporate the Taliban fighters into the Afghan Army even if that means a huge defense budget. Peace is worth the price. 
  3. Peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The status quo is unsustainable. And this is way beyond the scope of Imran's capabilities. The PMO office in Pakistan has a hard enough time dealing with internal villains. But in a 10-year timeframe I hope he does play a role here, a role there to bring about a fruitful outcome. 
  4. Law and order inside Pakistan. This means unless you are a soldier or a police officer, you don't get to carry a gun inside Pakistan. Zero tolerance for terrorist groups. He really has to lead the Pakistani army here. When Imran's hero and role model Nitish Kumar came to power in Bihar in 2005, he only said, "Law and order!" That is all he said when he ran for office, and that is all he worked on for the first few years. Nitish knew that unless he could restore law and order, nothing else he does really matters. Next thing you know, he had put 70,000 people behind bars. 
  5. Infrastructure. That road that China is building is key. It will transform Pakistan. It will unify Pakistan. I am for robust federalism in Pakistan. I am not for breaking Pakistan into smaller pieces, a fantasy of some Hindu fanatics in India. After law and order, Nitish focused on building roads. Roads, roads and more roads. When Deng Xiaoping started his reforms in China, his first mantra was, lay down train tracks everywhere. Infrastructure is important. 
  6. Health and education. This is another place where Bill and Melinda Gates are huge fans of Nitish Kumar. I believe Imran Khan is making all the right noise here and making the right moves. I wish him all the best. 
  7. 5G. This is where you want to take your bathroom trip when Donald Trump starts talking about Huawei. If the Chinese want to steal Pakistani secrets, let them. That might be a stealth way of forcing them to learn Urdu. But get 5G done. And Huawei has the best deal in the market by a wide margin. Blanket Pakistan with 5G. This is more important than train tracks and roads and bridges. 5G is the most important infrastructure today. If you blanket the land with 5G, you will be able to do in 10-15 years, what China did in 30. 
  8. Ease of Doing Business. Here, learn from Modi. The guy has helped India climb up the ranks. 



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Greta Thunberg For Nobel Peace Prize

She deserves it more than Al Gore. 
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Hong Kong: The Power Lies In Non-Violence

Even when the Hong Kong Police might engage in police brutality, even when Beijing might see fit to encourage vigilantism, it makes sense for the Hong Kong protestors to stick to non-violence. Do not damage property. Do not engage in violence.

The movement is being called leaderless. But there is as much order and organization to the movement as there is in a crowdfunding campaign on Kickstarter. There is purpose. There is defiance. There is thought. There is discussion. There is mission. There is action.

Hong Kong leads. I don't see Hong Kong clamoring for what others have but they don't. I see Hong Kong leading. I see Hong Kong demanding for what other big cities don't have either. Hong Kong leads New York. Hong Kong leads DC. Maybe this is how Washington DC will gain statehood and due representation. Maybe this is how residents of New York City will gain voting rights. 40% of New Yorkers do not get to vote in the city elections.

Hong Kong leads the way.

Bu the method is important. Non-violence is the only good option. Not because the Hong Kong protestors are weak, but because that is how they keep their moral high ground.

The entire world is watching in real time.

The Hong Kong protests should become better organized politically. There is need for political conversations. Options have to be explored. If a near total shutdown of the city is not working, maybe a total shutdown has to be attempted. Because the current protests can not go on forever.

And the nuclear option is organizing for independence. I hope things don't go that far. But Beijing might not budge otherwise.

It is best that the five demands are met and one country, two systems is maintained. That is what is best for Hong Kong. That is what is best for the Chinese mainland, and the cause of democracy there.

But organizing for independence will take greater political sophistication. Millions of Hong Kongers will have to become active members of political parties. Leaders will have to emerge. Political strategies will have to be discussed.

Organizing protests does require conversations and strategies. But organizing for independence is a whole another level. Right now that political organization is lacking. Unless Beijing feels it might lose Hong Kong altogether, it might not budge. So that threat has to be created.

The world stands by Hong Kong. If Beijing attempts military action in Hong Kong, the world will shut down the Chinese economy. Chinese exports will come down dramatically. Beijing knows that to be the case. And so a credible threat for independence has to be created. That is the only way Beijing will come around to accepting the five demands. Hong Kong deserves nothing less.

The police have to be investigated. Only an independent commission could do that. The Chief Executive of Hong Kong has to be directly elected. It is going to be one of the leaders of the movement. All members of the Hong Kong Legislature need to be directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. A vast majority of them are going to be those who are currently part of the movement.

That is the way forward. The earlier Beijing makes peace with that, the better.

One country, two systems. Really.





Young Progressives Making Mistakes
Capitalism's Own Propaganda Machine
How Will Democracy Come To The Arab Countries?
Kashmir: Not Normal Yet
Trying To Understand Hong Kong And China
News: Hong Kong, Kashmir, Vigilantism, Curfew, Terrorism, Diaspora
Hong Kong, Non Violence Works
Globalization 4.0
News: Hong Kong, Vancouver, Diaspora Nationalism
News: Hong Kong, October 1, Protest Slang, Mental Conditioning
Xi Jinping Should Act
The Asymmetry Between Beijing And Hong Kong Is On Hong Kong's Side
Defiant Hong Kong
Microsft, Huawei, Trump, 5G
The Two Wangs
Hong Kong: Antennae Problem?
Hong Kong: No Police Solution, No Military Solution, Only A Political Solution
Hong Kong: Let The Dragon Grow Up
Navigating The Hong Kong Protests

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