Wednesday, May 29, 2019

5G Challenges US Hegemony

The US has been acting like an empire. It acts like it owns a big chunk of the sky over the Pacific and the Atlantic. Only a few days ago I learned that. That is but ridiculous.

China is trying to imitate that behavior in the South China Sea. That is equally ridiculous.

This trade war is not David versus Goliath. This trade war is not who is right, who is wrong. There are two wrong parties.

There is a need for a new world order that is just. It is based on the premise that every human being is created equal.

5G is fundamental infrastructure. It is going to be vastly empowering for the individual everywhere.

The new order is not about challenging the United States or China. It is about challenging the very idea of the nation-state. The global village needs a village council.

5G challenges the nation-state. The Blockchain will challenge the US Fed, and every central bank on the planet. They have disproportionate powers.

The Internet challenged the media houses of the world. The Blockchain will challenge the banks of the world, among other things.

This trade war is stupid in that it is not even asking the right questions. It is a folly to try to answer the questions that are being asked.

Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival
Towards A World Government
30-30-30-10: A More Thoughtful And Egalitarian Formula For Equity Distribution In Tech Startups For The Age Of Abundance
The Blockchain: Fundamental Like The Internet
The Character Called The Tech Entrepreneur





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India 2050: Amitabh Kant











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Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Brexit, Aexit, And Trump

Brexit is easier to look at for Americans because the distance the pond offers gives you perspective. The trade war is Donald Trump attempting Brexit for America. Is it possible for the British economy to disengage from the larger European economy? It is the largest market in the world. Is it possible for the American economy to disengage from the Chinese economy? Just like Brexit seemed to have bipartisan support in London, looks like Trump's moves enjoy bipartisan support in Washington DC.

I think the short answer is the attempted disengagement is not possible. You can try and create a lot of political drama. But the disengagement will not happen. The supply chains of the world have become so enormously complex. Country A exports item M to Country B, which uses item M to produce item N which it exports to Country A, and that back and forth goes five times, six times, 10 times. How do you disengage?

50 years ago the Chinese read the Chinese newspapers, the Americans read the American newspapers. Today Donald Trump's facial expressions are transmitted in real time to all world as he makes small talk with Abe or Xi. And they get archived for anyone else to see on their own time. In this information-rich environment, you can bluff but you will get seen.

I don't believe Trump cares for the cause of democracy. His relentless verbal attacks on media in the US is a hint. He has openly asked for violence in the streets.

I believe he is a demagogue who misleads his people. He taps into the anger from the lost manufacturing base and channels blame on the Mexican and the Chinese. He does not have a solution. The trade war is just a bigger version of the border wall theatrics. He promised he will get those manufacturing jobs back and he wants to be seen trying. Look, I did try to build the wall. Look, I did put the pressure on the Chinese.

The smart thing to do would be to face the facts of the massive transition that is underway. Evidence-based decision making will lead to a realization this transition need not be painful and it can be good news.

The smart thing to do is to face the facts of climate change and inequality. Both are existential.



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African Economic Union



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Understanding China (2)





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Trump's Prospects In 2020



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Monday, May 27, 2019

Understanding China



“Huawei simply makes world class 5G equipment for the world’s telcos and it looks as though this will remain the case for the foreseeable future,” said Kevin Curran, a professor of cybersecurity at Ulster University in Northern Ireland. “Competitors such as Ericsson cannot compete on price.”


EU ignores US calls for blanket ban on Huawei in Europe as Chinese company’s 5G expertise helps its cause The new technology will be essential to ushering in a new era of ultra-fast, high capacity, mobile networks that can power commercial internet of things applications and AI-enabled infrastructure, such as smart manufacturing and autonomous driving. No country will want to have a disadvantage in a key area of the new internet economy........... German Chancellor Angela Merkel said last week that Europe’s biggest economy “could not simply exclude one actor” from its 5G auction, which began last Tuesday, because they have requirements that need to be met by vendors planning to supply competitive 5G systems.......... Michele Geraci, undersecretary at Italy’s Ministry for Economic Development, said he does not see an issue with Huawei and that it will be one of 25 manufacturers bidding for 5G-related contracts in the country......... Shenzhen-based Huawei is “at least 12 to 18 months ahead of its peers” in 5G after over a decade of research, registering more than 2,570 essential patents, signing over 30 commercial contracts and deploying 40,000 5G base stations, “making it the No. 1 5G vendor in the world”........ “Huawei spends an incredible amount of money on research and development. Just a few months ago, they declared that they were increasing their research and development budget to between US$15 to US$20 billion,” said Curran. “That is an astonishing amount. No other telecoms provider comes close.” ....... “Beyond performance, we’ve focused a lot of our R&D efforts on making 5G equipment lighter, smaller, and more durable,” said Huawei in response to a request for comment by the Post. “So instead of multiple antennas the size of a door, you only have to ship and install something as small as a backpack. This saves on logistics and installation costs.” ........ Huawei confirmed that as of early March it has signed 30 5G contracts – 18 in Europe, 9 in the Middle East, and 3 in Asia-Pacific. Ericsson has publicly announced 16 5G contracts, according to its official website, 5 of them within Europe. Nokia has signed over 70 agreements across the globe ....... Aside from Europe, countries such as India and the United Arab Emirates have also shied away from a complete ban on Huawei in relation to 5G development. These moves are beginning to upset the US game plan of gradually shutting Huawei out of global 5G markets. ........ “It is looking dicey. We are running out of runway,” former Republican congressman Mike Rogers, who led the House Intelligence Committee and who has long been a fierce critic of Huawei, was quoted as saying

A victory for Huawei as EU ignores US calls to ban it in 5G security blueprint, despite ‘worry’ about Chinese security law Huawei is the world’s biggest maker of telecoms infrastructure equipment such as radio base stations and network switches. Telecoms providers like its equipment because it’s good quality and cheaper than Scandinavian rivals Nokia and Ericsson.



Angela Merkel resists US pressure to ban Huawei as Germany launches 5G auction “There are two things I don’t believe in,” Merkel said in an onstage discussion on Tuesday at the Global Solutions summit in Berlin. “First, to discuss these very sensitive security questions publicly, and second, to exclude a company simply because it’s from a certain country.’’ ....... European carriers, however, have warned governments that sidelining Huawei would delay fifth-generation networks by years. ...... Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Monday lashed out at what he called “abnormal, immoral” attacks on the Chinese firm. ..... Washington could review intelligence cooperation unless Berlin agreed to a Huawei ban. ...... Nato forces would cut communications if Berlin were to work with Huawei. ....... “particularly with 5G, the bandwidth capability and ability to pull data is incredible”

As with Huawei, China thinks it can split the US and EU. It’s wrong Italy and France are far from alone in wanting a closer economic relationship with China.

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