Sunday, May 19, 2019

India 2019: Exit Polls



Most exit polls show Modi coming back as Prime Minister.



Modi Expects More Than 300 Seats
My Projection Puts Modi At 300-350

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Friday, May 17, 2019

Modi Expects More Than 300 Seats



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India 2019: The Final Lap

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Thursday, May 16, 2019

India 2019: Congress Not Wanting PM Position Is A Game Changer

"Central Role" For Rahul Gandhi In Forming New Government: Tejashwi Yadav
Rahul Gandhi's Hands-On Solution After Helicopter Glitch In Himachal
Congress not averse to supporting regional party leader for PM post: Ghulam Nabi Azad
TRS not averse to go with Congress, if PM is regional
Lok Sabha Elections 2019: PM Modi Is "Losing And Is Desperate", Says Congress Leader Salman Khurshid He said, "He is changing course because he is desperate. He knows he is losing and he is desperate. You just compare the last campaign with this campaign. He was in control of that campaign but he is not in control of this campaign."
Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Highlights: Sonia Gandhi Writes To Party Leaders For May 23 Opposition Meet

The Congress declaring it does not necessarily want a PM from the Congress party is a game changer. That vastly expands the possibilities of UPA-4. It will become harder for the BJP to pull in a few more parties even if it is near something like 250. Some current members of the NDA like Nitish Kumar and Ram Vilas Paswan might desert the NDA if push comes to shove.

But the Congress supporting from the outside drama should not be enacted. Whoever comes to power should give a full five-year term. PM or no PM the Congress must participate in the government.

Step one has to be to form the coalition, UPA-4. This is a new, expanded coalition. Then those aspiring for leadership should come forward, and the pool of MPs should vote, in two rounds if necessary. That would be the most stable way to do it. Backroom consensus building is b.s. And each party's strength would get reflected in the cabinet. So the Congress would get the largest number of ministers.

I would think Rahul Gandhi would be most suitable for Convenor of the coalition, and the best person to serve as PM would be Chandrababu Naidu, who just so happens to be the most senior politician in the country.

This move by Congress is not necessarily magnanimous. No matter what happens, the Congress by itself will be much smaller than all the smaller parties combined. This is just respecting arithmetic. This is basic democracy.


Convenor of UPA-4: Rahul Gandhi
Prime Minister: Chandrababu Naidu
Defense Minister: Mayawati
Telecommunications Minister: Akhilesh Yadav

Naidu because he could give India double-digit growth rates.

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Naidu's Amaravati

Chandrababu Naidu built Hyderabad. He lost it to the bifurcation. Hyderabad is now in Telangana. He is now building Amravati from scratch. He claims it will be among the top five cities in the world "by every parameter."

He has had financial issues. He has been pestering the government in Delhi for additional funds.

I think he should go to global financial markets.

He acquired land for the city through land pooling. That is a beautiful concept. Similar out of the box thinking could take care of the cash crunches that the building of the city might bring forth.

Amravati should not only be the capital of Andra Pradesh. It should also be a knowledge city that hosts the industries of tomorrow. And it should create and sell bonds and raise money in the global financial markets perhaps at 5% interest rates. A knowledge city should be able to generate enough revenue to pay the interest on the bonds for the near future.











































Investor’s faith in Amaravati bonds reflects trust in AP: Naidu
Former Britain PM Tony Blair visits Amaravati, praises Naidu's Real Time Governance
Naidu plans mother of all B-schools in Amaravati. He built the global IT hub of Hyderabad from the ground up, but lost it after Andhra Pradesh split. Not one to wallow over losses, Andhra Pradesh chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu is back to doing what he does best – building world-class institutions like the Indian School of Business (ISB), Hyderabad. ...... is busy drawing up a blueprint to set up a premier institute of excellence in the public private partnership mode to outshine ISB. ....... The institution is proposed to be set up in the Amaravati capital region over nearly 100 acres at a cost of 500 crore. For this, he plans to rope in the best of the best of the global academic world like the London School of Economics, Harvard Kennedy School, National University of Singapore as well as the University of Birmingham as well as the who’s who of the global corporate world. Various UN agencies, the World Bank, ADB and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation are some of the other intended global partners for the project. ....... The idea is that each of the 10 or more industry partners would contribute 50 crore under their CSR head and would be part of the governing board ....... And Naidu has found the man for the job – Pramath Raj Sinha, founding dean of ISB and co-founder of Ashoka University. ....... The institution of global scale would offer very refined MBAs with specializations in niche segments. “The institute will be an independent, non-partisan and non-profit organisation. It shall perform functions of consulting, primary and applied research, global annual discussion and learning forums, performance evaluation and monitoring and education that provides management skills to the government work force ....... “The CM wanted a world class think-tank in our state to cater to the knowledge needs of governments and businesses of the country and that it should welcome some of the finest academicians and thinkers from across the globe.” ........ The institute’s activities would be in accordance with the State’s Sunrise Vision 2029 framework to transform AP into “a happy, inclusive and globally competitive society”.
Amaravati Bonds Listed on BSE: What This Means for Andhra Pradesh
It Is Japan Government's Responsibility To Build Amaravati: Chandrababu Naidu "Your (Japan's) Maki and Associates is designing our capital buildings. So it is Japan government's responsibility to build Amaravati. It should be next to Tokyo," Mr Naidu remarked, inaugurating a two-day Andhra Pradesh-Japan Public-Private joint conference in Vijayawada today. ...... In the near future, we should have a direct flight between Amaravati and Tokyo...... Pointing out that 15 Japanese companies were currently doing business in Andhra Pradesh, the chief minister wanted the number to increase ten-fold to 150 in a year. ...... "AP is an innovative state. People here are creative. We are strong in knowledge economy. ....... About 80 delegates from Japanese majors like Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Fuji, Nippon, Toyota, NEC, Toshiba, Sumitomo besides representatives of Japan External Trade Organisation are attending the event, organised by the Andhra Pradesh Economic Development Board.
Chandra Babu Naidu lays foundation stone for grand Venkateswara temple in Amaravati Spread across 25 acres of land on the banks of river Krishna, the mega temple will be equipped with all the modern day facilities. According to state officials, Venkateswara Swami Temple will be designed as per Agama and Vastu Shastra where makers are planning to showcase the rich architectural values from the ancient kingdoms like Pallava, Chola, Chalukya, and Vijayanagar.
‘Amaravati Bond 2018 listed on BSE today
A 21st century Indian city Shamshabad will not just be an ordinary airport, Naidu told me. It was to be a hub airport, like Singapore and Dubai. “Singapore and Dubai airports are getting overcrowded. Hyderabad is bang in the middle, between them. It can be a new hub airport, not just for national and international transit passengers but for cargo, aircraft maintenance, export-oriented business, international conferences and exhibitions,” said Naidu. ...... China began building Zhengzhou as an aerotropolis a decade after Naidu thought of Shamshabad-Cyberabad as an aerotropolis of a kind. But then, in 2004, Naidu was voted out of office. ...... Naidu’s planned aerotropolis project remains half done. A very Indian outcome to a very non-Indian idea at the time....... In building Amaravati, the new capital of the new state of AP, he wants a Singapore in India! There is enough talent in coastal Andhra and the globalised Andhra community to make this possible. Naidu’s “Act East” policy of seeking inspiration and capital from Singapore, Japan and China is laudable....... some analysts have charged the land-pooling scheme of being “anti-farmer, anti-poor and socially unjust”, favouring absentee landowners (at the cost of poorer tenant farmers) and speculators, all belonging to favoured castes. ....... Amaravati can become India’s best city of the 21st century — which means a modern, humane, energetic, green and clean, and liveable city with public spaces, facilities and transport. If Naidu delivers, he would earn his place in history.

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New Twist In The Trade War: China Devalues Its Currency

First, it was a little bit of tariff on a few exports, then a lot of tariff on a lot of exports, and now almost the entirety of exports. Then it was not enough to not buy from Huawei. Disrupt that company's supply chain in America. China could bring Apple's market value down by 500 billion dollars just like that if it wanted. They only design the iPhone in California. 100% of the manufacturing happens in China. America importing from China is not just consumer goods, although one can imagine Walmart very worried right now. A big chunk of imports from China goes into bits and pieces that result in goods produced and services rendered by American companies.

So the escalation was going to be painful all around.

But then the news is China has let its currency slide by just enough points that Trump's tariffs have been completely neutralized. The move is obvious. It could not have taken a lot of thinking.

One wonders what Trump and Xi will talk about when they meet in Japan next month.


5G And The Trade War
The US China Trade War Escalation Is Primarily Political
The US China Tension: Creative Or Destructive?
China US Trade War Escalation
US Health Care: A Perspective
Huawei Founder Ren Zhengfei
A Truly Global Universal Basic Income
New Political And Economic Paradigms For The Age Of Abundance
The Inequality, The Climate Change
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This Turn By Nitish Is Meaningful



This turn by Nitish Kumar is meaningful. He has not said anything new, but his party's declaration that Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa qualify for a Special Category status by the center is meaningful. There are rumors the BJP is getting less than a majority in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. If that ends up being true, that will be a sure indication the BJP might not come back to power. If those three states gang up and say we will support whoever gives us Special Category status, that would be a game changer. Because that would torpedo the BJP's chances of forming a government even if they are near 250.

Nitish surely is not worried about Bihar. The RJD would be glad to step in should the BJP walk out.

If this is the thought process then that might be an early indication that as Nitish Kumar sees it, the BJP is not getting the majority of seats in UP and Bihar. It has long been said in Indian politics that there never has been an instance when a party lost UP and still formed the government in Delhi.

If the BJP-led NDA is closer to something like 230, it is possible an expanded NDA might demand a non-BJP PM.

Declare Nitish Kumar as PM face, demands JD(U) lawmaker
Nitish Kumar Has Written His Own Sad Twist To His Tale
In Bihar, Nitish Kumar's Party Catalyst For Win: Prannoy Roy's Analysis

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