Granted this speech by Akbar Owaisi is not from this election season, it looks like it might be from two years back, but I watched it only a few days ago for the first time, and so I am going to count it as something from this election season, besides its relevance, if anything, has only gone up. It is a marvelous speech. I hope his party expands to the urban centers of India with this focus on the nuts and bolts of empowerment and development.
Akbar Owaisi has always been very impressive when it comes to delivery. He is a natural. He is the Virat Kohli or oratory in Indian politics. But in this speech what also comes forth is he has thoroughly done his homework. Indian politicians are not known to do that. They simply get up and do the stream of consciousness thing. Here Akbar can be seen going from page to page, reading out statistic after statistic. He successfully impresses upon his voters that their votes are valuable. If they vote right, they can get more government money to show up in their neighborhoods.
I am impressed. I wish Akbar Owaisi the best in the next state and local elections in Mumbai. I think their next target after Hyderabad is Mumbai. They are trying to expand into Mumbai.
Owaisi exhibits a high level of emotional intelligence in the way he presents himself.
5G is technology. What has that got to do with the trade war?
Trump’s Huawei Threat Is the Nuclear Option to Halt China’s Rise The Trump administration is pulling out the big guns in its push to slow China’s rise, with potentially devastating consequences for the rest of the world......... The White House on Wednesday initiated a two-pronged assault on China: barring companies deemed a national security threat from selling to the U.S., and threatening to blacklist Huawei Technologies Co. from buying essential components. If it follows through, the move could cripple China’s largest technology company, depress the business of American chip giants from Qualcomm Inc. to Micron Technology Inc., and potentially disrupt the rollout of critical 5G wireless networks around the world.
US move against Huawei could slow the global rollout of 5G American firms accounted for more than a third of Huawei's major suppliers at the end of last year..... "This could set back Huawei's supply chain in the US and potentially delay 5G in China," Edison Lee and Timothy Chau, analysts with brokerage firm Jefferies, said in a note Thursday, calling the scenario a "nightmare" for China's adoption of the new technology..... Beyond China, Huawei has signed dozens of commercial 5G contracts around the world, including 25 in Europe and 10 in the Middle East. It could be harder to fulfill those contracts if Huawei can't buy parts from US suppliers...... Huawei is better positioned to work around a ban on US components. ...... Huawei was already steeling itself for disruption to its supply chain, saying in March that it had diversified suppliers and stockpiled key parts to ensure the continuity of its business...... "The ban will slow down 5G adoption and eventually will be harmful to [telecom] carriers and consumers around the world."....... "Restricting Huawei from doing business in the US will not make the US more secure or stronger; instead, this will only serve to limit the US to inferior yet more expensive alternatives, leaving the US lagging behind in 5G deployment," Huawei said in a statement Thursday.
Nobody really seems to know what is going to happen. Of course, the political parties will say they will get a thumping majority. Both the BJP and the Congress are going to say that. It is in their self-interest to say that. Also, it is in the interest of the TV stations to make you feel like this is going to be a nailbiter, a really close election. It is because they want you to watch TV. If one or the other party is the clear winner, why bother following the news on TV, right? Pollsters are notoriously off the mark in India. They can't reach people they need to talk to. Those they talk to deliberately throw them off balance. Those who get polled mostly say what they think the interviewer wants to hear. In India, your average citizen is also a politician like that.
Which is kind of cool, though. You just have to wait and see what it is going to be on May 23. That works.
The predictions basically revolve around Modi, though. If he does better than last time, of course, he will get five more years. If he fares worse but still gets a majority, of course, he will get to continue. If the NDA he leads ends up in the 250 zone, about 23 less than needed, Amit Shah might be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat. He could add a few more parties to the support base. Maybe 240 is also doable. But as soon as that number dips towards 200, people start seeing a new Prime Minister. That is the sum of the predictions that I have seen.
Indian federal elections are to democracy what World Cup Soccer is to the world of sports. It is the biggest show on earth. And it is quite fascinating.
Should Modi fall short by a small margin, say he ends up with something like 230 seats and needs about 40 additional seats, he might be able to rope in the regional parties in Orissa, Telangana, and Tamilnadu, none of whom have shown much love for the Congress-led alliance.
But if the BJP-led NDA is closer to 200, then that will be read as a mandate against the Modi government, and then the BJP might be forced to sit in the opposition, likely leading to this being the final time Modi is Prime Minister. 2024 might throw up someone else like Gadkari as the BJP candidate for Prime Minister.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 13, 2019
the BJP may end up winning 190-210 seats, and the NDA in its current form bagging 220-240 seats....... “This may mean the NDA will have to sign up at least four large regional parties in post-poll alliance to form the government,” the brokerage said.
...... There is a big question mark on what happens to UP ....... “Depending on whom you speak to, you get a range between 20 and 60 seats for the BJP. It really is not very clear.” ...... BJP political party workers on the ground say the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) joining the BJP in a post-poll alliance cannot be ruled out. ...... the BJP has proven to be more adept in making new alliances and keeping old ones, compared with the Congress. ....... despite not being officially part of the UPA, a number of strong regional parties seem ideologically committed towards a non-BJP election outcome
N. Chandrababu Naidu: The maker of tomorrowland Naidu is looking to transform Andhra Pradesh from an agrarian to a tech-driven economy. ...... chief minister of united Andhra Pradesh from 1995 to 2004 was the catalyst that made Hyderabad the wonder that it is today, still clocks 16 hours at work. ...... In 2000, Time magazine named Naidu South Asian of the Year for turning Hyderabad, which it described as “an impoverished, rural backwater place”, into “India’s new information-technology hub”. ...... Amaravati, the capital city of the new state, is being built from scratch on the southern banks of the Krishna river ...... He believes Andhra Pradesh can become the No. 1 state by 2029 in every economic parameter ...... in the past five years his state has achieved an average GDP growth rate of 10.52% ...... Naidu’s vision is to convert a largely agrarian state into a future-focussed, technology driven economy in tune with the needs of the 21st century. ....... he is talking specifically about big data, which lies at the heart of governance in the state. “If one has the right historical and current data, one can predict and execute things much better for individuals and the community because outcomes will be closer to expectations,’’ he says. ...... Real Time Governance Society monitoring centre housed in building No. 1 of the government secretariat in Amaravati. The monitoring centre is straight out of a Hollywood sci-fi film. On one side are giant screens, or dashboards, with constantly flashing images, videos, and data monitored by a few dozen people. These dashboards provide real-time data on the status of government welfare schemes and important government projects; road traffic; deaths, marriages and births in households; first information reports filed at various police stations; and even files signed by officials and ministers. Similar centres are present across the state. ......... “We have linked all the 240 government schemes across 30 departments and created 560,000 combinations, which help us resolve issues and grievances of people on a real-time basis. It is our way of breaking down the silos of various departments and bringing everyone together on the basis of data” ....... On March 1 the government had full data on its 44.9 million citizens across 123 parameters; it had 2,000 video cameras tracking vehicles and traffic violations, 2,000 government officials conversing with 3 million people in the state to solve their grievances and issues. Babu says the government has got 18 million complaints over the past four years. .......... the tech-savvy Naidu ...... Naidu wants the 217 sq. km. Amaravati to set the standards for smart cities in India—a truly global city that will draw top global firms to set up base there. Roads and water supply will be like in Amsterdam; power supply as in Germany and the U.S.; and the “green-blue” city—called so for the 51% green cover and 10% water bodies it will boast—will have storm water management matching that in the U.K. and Malaysia. ........ To overcome the challenge of land acquisition for building Amaravati, the state went in for land pooling. Farmers who gave up their land were offered a 10-year annuity package. “We have made farmers shareholders in the development process in the new capital, without evicting them from their habitations,” says Naidu. The annuity amount will not only increase 10% every year, but farmers will also get back a part—nearly one-third—of the developed land, which they can sell in the next 10 years.......Within two-and-a-half years, land which was selling at ₹10 lakh an acre has begun to fetch ₹2 crore. “So if the farmer decides to sell the developed plot, he can make a lot of money...... “Today 20% to 30% of all mobile phones are being manufactured in AP, I want it to go up to 50% to 60%,” says Naidu. Reliance Industries has announced an electronics park for making mobiles and televisions in Tirupati; electronics manufacturers Foxconn, and TCL Corporation, too, have plans to invest there....... Further south from the banks of the Krishna river are 13 urban plazas, signifying the 13 districts in the state. Means of transport in the city will run on electricity. There will be water-taxis, dedicated tracks for cyclists and well-shaded pavements, encouraging people to walk. The green pockets in the city are modelled on New York’s Central Park and Lutyens’ Delhi....... Amaravati is expected to be built by 2025 and the AP Capital Region, which comprises parts of Guntur, Vijayawada, and Tenali, by 2028.
Mamata Banerjee will play key role, says Chandrababu Naidu On Ms. Banerjee’s request, Mr. Naidu addressed the crowd in Telugu to loud cheers. ...... Kharagpur, which houses the oldest IIT in the country and serves as important hub of South Eastern Railways, has a Telugu population of about 30%
In a scenario where the BJP-led NDA ends up with 220-230 seats, the Congress-led UPA hovers around 140-150 seats, and the rest of the parties collectively bag about 270-280 seats, it might make sense for that Federal Front to get the pick for Prime Minister, and in that crowd Chandrababu Naidu might be the most capable candidate. That he is not in the running makes it even more attractive. A Federal Front with outside support from the Congress-led UPA might be stable enough.
There seems to be a growing chorus that these are the kinds of numbers India might be looking at. The truth is nobody knows.
Naidu Prime Minister, Mayawati Defense Minister.
In case there is a fractured mandate, many member parties of the NDA and the UPA might ditch those alliances.
But should the NDA end up with something like 230, it will be in a fairly good position to make a mad dash for a few big regional parties like Naveen Patnayak in Orissa, perhaps even Mayawati. Maybe Mayawati wants to become Deputy Prime Minister. Heck, it might even rope in a once NDA partner Chandrababu Naidu, who is focused on staying Chief Minister.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 14, 2019
Should the BJP-led NDA end up with something like 220, that would create a scenario where some non-BJP person could rise to the helm. And the best way to elect that person is to follow the simple democratic process. All the MPs would form a pool. And that pool of MPs would engage in two rounds of votes. The highest two vote-getters would go into a second round. And the one who garners a majority of votes would naturally be the leader. That person could be from a party with only 20 MPs. Why not?
The most qualified person would be Naidu. Somebody like Rahul Gandhi would be best as Convenor of the coalition: UPA-4. On this side of the aisle, Naidu is best positioned to give India a double-digit growth rate.
Rahul Gandhi a good leader, will reach consensus on PM candidate after tallying results: Chandrababu Naiduhttps://t.co/lpcT3FhWpc
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 14, 2019
The last two come together to form UPA-4. Pool of MPs: 325.
Election for Parliamentary Leader:
First round of votes: Rahul Gandhi: 140 votes, Chandrababu Naidu: 185 votes.
Rahul Gandhi: Convenor of UPA-4
Chandrababu Naidu: Prime Minister of India
Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee can not see eye to eye. But Naidu can talk to both.
The problem is in the process. Instead of a few leaders saying we will sit together and decide, the steps have to be (1) form the coalition, (2) pool together all MPs of the coalition, and (3) organize an election for parliamentary leader for the coalition with every MP in the pool voting.
That the Chinese economy is now bigger than the US economy adjusted for purchasing power parity was a major event. China now has become a rival that in some sense the Soviet Union never was. The US was supposed to be a better economic model. Measured in absolute dollar terms the US economy is still much larger and the per capita income in the US is still much, much higher. But the US economy does have the blight of a much-weakened manufacturing base.
Strictly on economic theory, there are many in the US who think Trump is simply being foolish. Trade is a good thing in almost all circumstances, they argue. China does not pay the tariffs. The US consumer does.
Brexit was a hubris move. Trump might be a similar move.
Many are aghast that Trump, in seeking bilateral trade talks is essentially breaking down the global trade regime. That could only lead to disaster perhaps in the form of a global depression that might make 2008 look like a picnic. They see China as their last hope as a power that will stand up to the US and more specifically Trump to keep the global order on trade intact.
And there are others who see the US and Trump as the last hope as the only power that will stand up to China who is seen a bully when it comes to the South China Sea, or Taiwan, or Tibet, or now with the ethnic Muslim minority in western China, not to mention China's forays far and wide like now running the major port in Sri Lanka that it funded and built. To that add mass surveillance in China aided by the latest in technology.
Has the tussle been inevitable? How will it play out? How long will it last? Will a deal be made fast enough? Or will the tussle go on for years, if not decades?
Some changes the US wants are akin to if the Chinese were to demand the US Congress pass a certain law. Others are to do with the model of state capitalism that China has. The Chinese communist party and government actively lead the Chinese economy. They invest, they protect. They put out vision plans. The state steers. In the US model, the state is more hands off.
These are early innings. And most hope for a quick resolution because there will be pain on more than two sides if this trade war lingers or escalates. Hopefully, the miscalculations will be foreseen and the two powers will not go so far as to give the world economy a depression. That would be unnecessary.
One good thing about the tussle might be that it will force the Chinese economy to open up faster than it had planned to, and it might force the US political system to take a harder look at what works in China and realize investing in education is a good idea after all, maybe universal health care makes sense. The US government invested heavily in the early internet. Maybe it wants to invest more in clean energy. The Chinese have major plans to invest in some of the industries of tomorrow.
The elephant in the room though is that most manufacturing jobs that have been lost in the US have not been lost to China. China also has been losing them. The culprit is automation. And that process, if anything, is accelerating. The person making the most sense on this topic right now is Andrew Yang, a Democrat running for president, a Chinese American.
China is a ‘kung fu master’ and can deliver ‘deadly punch’ to US economy in trade war, ex-official says China still had abundant tools in its armoury and has already prepared a contingency plan to deal with the escalation of the trade war. ..... as an experienced boxer and can deliver a deadly punch at the end ..... the world’s second largest economy is prepared for an extended trade war with the US....... US agriculture products would be a natural primary target for retaliation, especially wheat, corn and pork, Wei said. These would directly target a key part of US President Donald Trump's electoral base in the run-up to the 2020 election....... “The decision makers already fully understand the pattern of the US in the trade talks.” ...... China could also place sanctions on US planes and vehicles ..... China was preparing to buy 100 Boeing planes worth more than US$10 billion, in a bid to satisfy US desires to narrow the trade deficit. ...... While the US has used “national security” as the justification for rolling out Section 232 tariffs on products such as steel and aluminium, and is considering using the same rationale for levying duty on the global car industry, it is not thought to have the same leverage to act in this manner as Beijing’s central planners.
China may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy, reduce Boeing orders and restrict US service trade with China. Many Chinese scholars are discussing the possibility of dumping US Treasuries and how to do it specifically.
Levin: Why Trump’s tariffs against ‘Red China’ are ‘absolutely necessary’ “They’re the enemy, and it’s about time we view it that way.” ...... the Chinese government’s human rights violations against the Uyghur Muslim minority. In addition to employing a massive surveillance state operation against the long-persecuted minority, forcing many into exile, the government has also detained two million in internment camps, which Levin said were “concentration camps.” ..... pointing to Pentagon and other intelligence reports that China aspires to dominate the rest of the world as the top superpower by 2049. Dow plunges 700 points after China retaliates with higher tariffs Real trade war: Trump fixates on tariffs while China pursues global digital domination China is ahead of the US in the race to establish global trade rules on digital commerce. We need investment, diplomacy and a Digital Marshall Plan.
...... Today there are almost 4.4 billion internet users around the world, up more than 1,000% since 2000, with global e-commerce sales topping $2.8 trillion in 2018. Digital trade is the backbone of today’s business — when a customer in Japan orders a book from Amazon, when a bank transfers data from one country to another, or when an in-flight aircraft engine beams GPS information to a global data collection center. The fact that the global regulatory environment is still a free-for-all is astounding, given all that is at stake...... With legitimate concerns over privacy and cybersecurity, many countries have moved to restrict digital trade, threatening American companies’ ability to do business while undermining U.S. national security. Because of the regulatory vacuum, countries have put in place a wide variety of restrictions. Nigeria, Turkey and others have data localization requirements mandating that companies doing business in their borders must keep data in country on local servers, among other restrictions, rendering digital trade impractical...... When developing countries buy Chinese equipment, they receive the tools to censor and control their internet while leaving their networks vulnerable to Chinese government cybertheft and interference. ...... Seventy-six countries have launched negotiations for a digital e-commerce agreement under the auspices of the World Trade Organization. At the Group of 20 major economies summit in June, host Japan will highlight the need for global digital regulations. ..... Beijing is well ahead of Washington in the race to establish the trade rules that tame — or rather maim — digital commerce. Playing the long game, Beijing surely understands that though today’s tariff battles must be fought, the trade wars of tomorrow will be waged on a digital battleground.
While Trump is tweeting trade threats to China, the US is missing the boat to get its own house in order. The American Leadership Initiative, is developing new policies to restore American global leadership. #internationaltrade#chinahttps://t.co/ZVS6AMsd9o
Is the WTO still viable? Three experts say that it’s not viable to continue with the notion that every country needs to agree to every outcome. pic.twitter.com/QkxFVxJf3x
Trump’s escalating trade war with China could wipe out benefits from his tax reform America is the revisionist power on trade Meanwhile China wants to preserve the model of globalisation that has served it well ...... the two countries’ rival ambitions have produced a trade war that now threatens globalisation........ For Xi Jinping, the problem with the current world order is America’s political and strategic dominance. The Chinese president has made it clear that he wants his country to displace the US as the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region. Many Xi-supporting nationalists go further, speaking openly of their hope that China will become the dominant global power. Mr Xi is well aware that globalisation has been critical to China’s rise over the past 40 years. So he is determined to preserve the current trade model......... Mr Xi wants to change the world’s strategic order, and to do that he needs to maintain its economic order. Mr Trump wants to preserve the strategic order, and to do that he needs to change the economic order. ...... America and China are therefore both revisionist powers. And they are also both status quo powers. America is the status quo power on geopolitics, so it has become the revisionist power on economics. China is the revisionist power on geopolitics, so it has become the status quo power on trade....... The actions of both countries suggest that they basically agree that the current system works better for China than for the US. While many economists would dissent from that view, it now seems to be the consensus political position in America. Chuck Schumer, the leader of the Democrats in the US Senate, has tweeted his support for the Trump administration’s confrontational policies on trade with China........ In both Washington and Beijing, however, there are divisions between moderates who want the current trade row to end with a deal and radicals who would welcome a lasting breakdown in trading relations........ The increasingly bellicose attitudes of nationalists in both the US and China look like an illustration of the “Thucydides’s trap” ....... throughout history, rising powers such as China have often gone to war with established powers such as the US. ...... But the current US-China conflict is a trade war, not a shooting war. And when it comes to trade, it is the US that is seeking to overturn the current system. ....... The Chinese are very mindful of the precedent of the Plaza Accord of 1985, in which, under intense US pressure, Japan agreed to revalue its currency. Many in China believe that, in retrospect, the Plaza Accord represented a successful American attempt to thwart the rise of Japan......... Yet a close relationship between leaders is no guarantee that conflict can be avoided. In the July crisis that preceded the outbreak of the first world war in 1914, Kaiser Wilhelm of Germany and Tsar Nicholas of Russia exchanged numerous friendly notes and telegrams. But it did not prevent their two countries sliding into conflict. In a similar way, the US-China trade war now risks escalating to a point where it escapes the control of the two countries’ leaders.
Dow, S&P 500 set for worst May tumble in nearly 50 years amid U.S.-China trade clash Kudlow Admits the Obvious: Trump is Wrong White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Sunday acknowledged that the Chinese do not directly pay tariffs on goods coming into the U.S., contradicting President Donald Trump’s claims that China will pay for tariffs imposed by the U.S...... Goldman Sachs says the same thing: The cost of Trump’s tariffs has fallen ‘entirely’ on US businesses and households...... That set of Tweets is from Sunday. It's a repeat of economic idiocy from Friday and Saturday. DONALD TRUMP'S TRADE WAR HAS BEEN PAID FOR ENTIRELY BY U.S. BUSINESSES AND CONSUMERS, SAYS GOLDMAN SACHS Take trade war deal or be ‘hurt very badly,’ Trump warned China before Beijing hit US with tariffsDespite Trump’s threat the same day that any retaliation by China would make things worse, Beijing responded in turn with a new set of tariffs of up to 25 percent on $60 billion worth of US imports....... The US and China have been involved in an all-out economic battle since early last year when Trump accused Beijing of stealing trade secrets and forcing foreign companies to give up technology in order to gain access to Chinese markets. The rival superpower’s tit-for-tat tariff measures have already affected hundreds of billions in mutual imports. China Is Calling Trump’s Bluff on His Trade War, and We’re All Going to Literally Pay For It Trump’s trade war with China. He’s losing it. ...... we are ultimately the ones who will wind up paying these additional taxes imposed by both sides in this economic dick-measuring contest—Trump voters especially. ..... This basic reality—that tariffs are a mutually assured form of destruction, like nuclear weapons—is even understood by the dim-witted Larry Kudlow. ...... Trump sees our suffering as his benefit ...... he now believes that demonstrating his toughness with the Chinese and walking away from a deal might well put him in a better position politically than signing one...... “Politics now drives the economics.” ....... The Republicans have created such a robust propaganda network that Trump could take a dump on your living room floor, and he'd have dutiful lap dogs like Senator Tom Cotton immediately rush in to tell you why it's actually a good thing that your house now smells like the inside of President Big Mac's colon....... ”If 25% duties are eventually imposed on all China goods, and then you consider a Chinese retaliation, we estimate it would result in over 2 million jobs lost in the U.S. over the next one to three years.”....... even Trump understands this—he’s just banking his re-election chances on the hope that enough Americans won’t see through his BS and help him work against their own best interests. Given how well that worked last time, it’s difficult to strategically criticize this cynically cruel political game plan that may wind up destroying the economy in order to get Trump re-elected.
Global stock markets plunge after China responds in kind to US tariffs
The culprit is automation. And that process, if anything, is accelerating. The person making the most sense on this topic right now is @AndrewYang, a Democrat running for president, a Chinese American. https://t.co/G8ygdoQyUv
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 13, 2019
