Modi Has A Shot

English: Narendra Modi in Press Conference (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I have been reading news on Indian elections quite literally every day. It has been fascinating. I don't watch sports. I watch politics. The outcome is far from clear, but I think Modi has a shot at the top job.

There was no way Rahul could have beat the anti-incumbency wave. But it has perplexed me how Modi has been the only one running for the top job. He first ran a primary inside his party that holds no primaries. Then he ran a presidential campaign in a country that does not hold a presidential election. He has challenged the basic rules, and I have thought that as impressive.

No matter who wins, who loses, 2014 is the watershed year for India. After this election India takes off in a big way. That is the impression I am getting.

Post May 16 is key. There is a possibility something by the name of a Secular Front might emerge. It all depends on the numbers. If the BJP is below or too close to 200, such a Front could emerge. Or Modi could end up getting a mandate. I have not known to follow or believe in the surveys or polls. Either they have overestimated Modi, or they have underestimated him. But I don't feel like they are accurate.

My horse in the race has been Nitish. He has been the top performing Chief Minister. And there is also that Bihari pride thing. But looks like he has not had a clear national strategy. Or maybe there is a point in waiting for May 16 for that strategy to emerge. India is an indirect democracy. People elect their MPs. Then those MPs elect the Prime Minister. So anything could happen. I will wait and watch.

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Modi

A Media Twist On Sharad Yadav

Sharad Yadav accuses Nitish of destroying Bihar just like Lalu

Yadav defended himself saying, "This is wrong. If you listen to whole speech you will find I have not said anything against Nitish. I was speaking against caste-ism. What I said has been taken otherwise. I said Nitish tried to fight against caste-ism. The more the media try to create rift between me and Nitish, the relationship will become stronger. Not only me and Nitish everybody is united in the party."

Maybe JD(U) Really Is In Trouble, Maybe Not

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Maybe JD(U) Really Is In Trouble, Maybe Not

Sharad Yadav openly castigating Nitish is a very bad sign, worse than a JD(U) candidate walking out of the race at the last minute to throw his support to the Congress candidate a few weeks ago.

This is like Sharad Yadav, a Yadav, finally woke up and threw his support behind Laloo Yadav, another Yadav. Caste loyalties run deep in India, especially Bihar.

Sharad Yadav is an armchair intellectual incapable holding an executive office.

Maybe the surveys are not that off. Nitish really will finish behind Modi and Laoo in Bihar.



This is Sharad Yadav acting ungrateful. He is bookish, but he has never been a mass based leader. He has needed mass based leaders like Laloo and Nitish to win elections.

And what after Nitish having just spent weeks camping out in Madhepura from where Sharad Yadav is contesting and has been feared to lose.

The real issue here is the Yadavs in Madhepura are with Laloo and Pappy Yadav and Sharad is miffed about that.

Sharad Yadav seems to think both Laloo and Nitish became Chief Ministers because of him. Hum ne bana diya. This is arrogant and inaccurate. It is the other way round. Laloo and Nitish made him MP.



This does not mean the JD(U) will split. Sharad Yadav thinks himself as senior to Nitish, which he is. He is an armchair intellectual who thinks the caste reality in Bihar is a nuisance, and he is right.



Sharad Yadav's latest talk is that his party unity stands like "a rock." Enough said.

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Secular Front

English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee attends a news conference in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata September 7, 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Layers Of Support For Nitish

On May 16 either Modi will become PM, or the country will go bipolar. A formal Secular Front might emerge. Yes, that could be its precise name. What brings all these non-BJP parties together? It is the "secular" issue. So that might as well be the name. You are looking at a coalition where the Congress for the first time is a formal, junior partner. And there is a formal coordination committee, and the government lasts a full five years.

All parties will not be equal. The coalition itself will have mini-coalitions inside of it. The Third Front will take the lead because the Third Front parties will collectively be bigger than the Congress. Mamata's Federal Front might bring together the three ladies.

So the Third Front of the Janata Parivar parties, the Left, and a few others, the Federal Front of the three ladies, the Congress, AAP, and others, and independents, together they could constitute a formal Secular Front.

Modi has run an impressive campaign. And I am not going to guess as to the outcome. Like I said, I will just wait for the outcome.

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Is Nitish Really In A Bad Shape?

Lalu Prasad Yadav, at a political meeting in Kesariya, Bihar, India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

There is relentless talk in the Indian media that the fight in Bihar is between Modi and Laloo, and that Nitish has been relegated to the third spot. Could that be possible? I find that hard to believe that the best performing Chief Minister in India would be in such a bad shape. But then --

• Nitish made it sound like he might have been okay with L.K.Advani, he was just unhappy with Modi. To the Indian "secularists," Advani is not "secular." 
• I personally think Modi is way better than Advani. 
• Nitish has not made a clear case. He should have made the case that yes, he is in the running for Prime Minister, and that he can do so much more for Bihar from the center. Instead Biharis who like him have been left in the fear that should he move to Delhi, all development work in Bihar will come to a stop. 
• I don't know how well or not Nitish will do this time. But I can tell you he will get a 60% majority in the assembly elections next year. By the time he is done, he will have stayed in power for 20 years. 
• This time the Third Front party that will have the most MPs will be able to make a claim. 
• That is not to say I know Modi will not make it. He might. He is the only one who has run a national campaign. 
• If Nitish is not doing well, it can be argued, you can't win if you are not even running. 

I don't begrudge Laloo. He was as magical a Railway Minister as Nitish has been magical as Chief Minister. 

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Apartheid In Israel

[Israel] (Photo credit: edoardocosta)

Kerry warns of 'apartheid' without Middle East peace

Israel is a remarkable story of survival. No ethnic/religious/cultural group in human history has been of such a small number with such an outsize influence and identity. And then there is the blemish of the Holocaust, the largest state crime in history. Tech in Israel is inspiring. The state of Israel is a leader when it comes to dealing with day to day terror acts.

But that does not change the fact that Israel today is an apartheid state. Either there is a two state solution, or all people living in the disputed territories of the West Bank and Gaza strip become full citizens of Israel. There is not a third option.

It is the most complex geopolitical knot on earth. That is there. Some of the larger changes that could help the situation is if there were a near total spread of democracy across the Arab world.

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