Barackface

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Could It Be Mamata?

Polling the Indian electorate is a tough proposition. But let's go by some numbers.

BJP set to emerge as single largest party in Lok Sabha polls: Survey

National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to get 236 seats..... Congress, which came out with flying colours in the last General Elections, would be confined to 73 seats, while the fledging Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is likely to get around 10 seats in the Lok Sabha polls ....... As far as the choice of prime ministerial candidate was concerned, Modi, backed by over 57 per cent respondents .......the federal front would beat the UPA with around 186 seats..... All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) would secure 29 seats, followed by AIADMK with 19 and BJD is expected to win on 16 seats

I think 200 is a magic number. If Modi can get the BJP past 200, then the democratic impulses of leaders in all parties will tell them the guy has a mandate, or at least something larger than everyone else. The BJP at 217 and the NDA at 236 is very close to the magic number of 272. Mamata or Jayalalita could opt for the Deputy Prime Ministership. And if they do, Third Front talk crumbles.

The Congress refused to name Rahul the PM candidate. And the Third Front refused to formally form. Both were magic moments. I was in disbelief both times. That makes Modi the only candidate for Prime Minister in the ring. If Modi manages to get both Mamata and Jayalalita, he will not need anyone else. Jayalalita's political move on the Rajiv Gandhi assassins was meant to get her closer to Modi. She wanted to make sure she was seen as anti-Congress. I am glad for the Supreme Court's move, but the political point was made.

If the BJP gets past 200, it will be hard for the Congress to prop up a Third Front government. For one, as a democratic party it might respect the right of the largest party to go into power. Two, if you prop up a Third Front government, and it misperforms and goes down the drain in two years, then you risk taking blame not only for the Congress' misperformance in power, but also that of the Third Front. The Congress might go below 50 at that point. And the BJP might command a simple majority all on its own if mid-term polls were then held.

The numbers still leave one scenario. The NDA goes to 236, but is made to sit in the opposition. A Third Front does take shape, and the Congress decides to throw its weight behind that Third Front. 186 seats of the Third Front propped up by 100 seats of the UPA gets you past 272. A mandate is a mandate. There is a reason why that magic number of 272 is there. The coalition that gets past that magic number can claim to have the mandate.

So Modi's claim to the throne is not secure yet, but he sure has momentum. The NDA's numbers have steadily climbed up over the past few months. He might take the NDA past 250 if the momentum holds. Then it is a no contest. You end up with a woman Deputy Prime Minister.

Modi's Cards To Play
India 2014: Most Interesting

Saturday, February 22, 2014

Modi's Cards To Play

If Modi manages to get the BJP past 200 seats, all bets are off. The BJP getting 40 out of 80 seats in UP finishes Mulayam as a PM candidate. The BJP grabbing 20 of Bihar's 40 seats also makes sure Nitish stays in Patna. That might also be the Bihari people's way of saying they like Nitish so much they want him to stay put in Patna for another 10 years. And no matter how well Jayalalita does in Tamilnadu she might just be angling to be Deputy Prime Minister.

Modi has been running an impressive campaign. It is pretty much unprecedented. His style makes it look like he is the only one running for Prime Minister.

Giving Bihar Special Category status gets Nitish. Doing the Lokpal Bill gets Kejriwal.

This is not me writing off the so-called Third Front, something that does not exist by the way, at least not yet. This is me saying Modi has been running a campaign the likes of which I have not seen.

Nitish has to grab at least 25 seats in Bihar if he is to be a contender. But it is possible the people of Bihar want Modi in Delhi and Nitish in Bihar. Nitish Kumar's JD(U) might win over 60% of the seats in Bihar's next state elections. A 14% growth rate for a landlocked agricultural state is mind blowing.

Monday, February 17, 2014

India 2014: Most Interesting

2014 is shaping to be the most interesting Indian election of my lifetime to date. The Congress that spearheaded India's independence struggle and then ruled for much of the half century after that is headed to below 100 seats. The BJP just might go past 200. AAP might emerge the third largest party: Kejriwal's resignation as Delhi Chief Minister was a political master stroke. Could AAP end up with 50 seats? I don't know.

BJP will get highest ever Lok Sabha tally, Congress lowest: Times Now poll

The poll projected that the BJP would win 202 seats if the elections were held now and its allies another 25, giving the NDA 227 seats in the 543-member LS. The Congress, in sharp contrast, would sink to just 89 and even with 12 seats from its allies the UPA would barely cross the 100 mark, it predicted. ..... With "others" likely to win 215 seats and many of them having joined hands with the BJP in the past, that would be very good news for those rooting for Narendra Modi as prime minister. In terms of vote shares, the NDA is estimated to win 36%, the UPA 22% and others 42%.

Right before Kejriwal resigned, the Third Front was in the lead in the projections with 42% of the vote to the BJP-led NDA's 36%. Some interesting permutations and combinations are possible, and most of them look good for India. I think 2014 will be that watershed year for the Indian economy like 1991 was when Manmohan Singh as Finance Minister opened up the economy a little. 2014 could be for India what 1980 was for China, the year when double digit growth rates started and stayed for over two decades non-stop. And we are all winners.

BJP is like McDonald's. It is the single largest fast food chain across America. But the Third Front is like the Chinese restaurants spread across America. Collectively they are bigger than McDonald's, but it does not appear that way. But 2014 could also shape up to be the election that mints out only winners. Modi, Nitish, Kejriwal, Rahul could all end up winners, no matter what.

Both Modi and Nitish would be wonderful if either were deprived of the big throne in Delhi and had to continue as Chief Minister. Their states would benefit. Neither seems to have clear successors who could replicate their magic in Gujrat and Bihar. On the other hand both have the political muscle that Manmohan Singh lacks.

One quality Kejriwal seems to share with Modi is it might be hard for him to put together a coalition. He might prove to be a one trick pony, at least this year. Just like Nitish has been saying he will support whoever will give special category status to Bihar, Kejriwal will go for whoever promises a Lokpal Bill at the center. AAP is number one on anti-corruption, but its economic vision has not gelled yet. Nitish has done the unthinkable when it comes to corruption in Bihar and is in a good position to seek Kejriwal's support after the election. Nitish has mastered the art of the Janata Durbar that Kejriwal tried and failed at.

Interim budget 2014: Chidambaram's 10-point agenda to make India 3rd largest economy

If you put the BJP at 190, the Congress at 100, AAP at 35, and the Third Front at 220, that does not put Modi in the lead, because the BJP at 190 and the Congress at 100 puts the BJP at 90. The Congress will support anyone but Modi, particularly Nitish. Rahul is a Nitish fan. What Nitish calls the Janata Parivar, the former Janata Dal party, might together bag more seats than AAP. That might also be true of his Eastern Bloc that includes Mamata.

Not creating a formal Third Front before the elections is a good step that does not push away Mamata and Mayawati. Both will support Nitish in the aftermath. Nitish as Prime Minister and Jayalalita as Deputy Prime Minister might be a good bet.

Nitish could end up a two term Prime Minister over 10 years if the Third Front parties were to form a federation. Each constituent party would stay as separate parties free to contest each other at state levels when necessary, but at the center each party would have a person who is part of some sort of a coordination committee in Delhi. Such a federation would ensure the Third Front government completes a five year term for the first time. Minus such a setup would leave too much room for horseplay.

AAP might not join such a Third Front. But it will support it if it gets a Lokpal Bill, and it should be given that. The Congress sure will not join the Third Front, but will happily extend outside support to keep Modi at bay. And Modi is going to continue to be an excellent Chief Minister.

But this outcome is not sure at all. Modi is very much in the running. The BJP crossing the 200 mark could throw up some interesting scenarios. And should the BJP cross the 200 mark, not form the government, and if the Third Front gives the country mid-term elections, the BJP could then cross the half way mark all on its own. It could become the new Congress.

I do think of Kejriwal as a future Prime Minister, but for that to happen he will have to realize the Indian electorate cares about double digit growth rates more than corruption. He has to look like he can deliver on both.

Jayalalita, Mamata and Mayawati are all in strong positions. It is good for India to have strong women politicians. It is just that none of them look strong right now on either anti-corruption or double digit growth rates.

Rahul can afford to stay out of power for another 10 years. He is young, he has time on his hands. That will also allow him time to build his party. He has some interesting initiatives in play in terms of power devolution in his party. But then parties like the Congress and the BJP are never really out of power. They always get some states to rule.

Wednesday, February 05, 2014

The Tamils Of Sri Lanka And The Federalism Question

Tamil woman (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sri Lanka is the most literate country in South Asia, and so the ethnic tension on that island is even more tragic. India is a regional power and an emerging global power, but Indians are the "blacks" of countries wherever they live as minorities, and they, like the Chinese, live everywhere. That state of affairs is a blight on India's potential might.

I am an Indian who grew up in Nepal. I identify strongly with the blacks in America because I grew up Indian in Nepal. Tamils are the Indian origin people in Sri Lanka. This is not China's game to play. This is an issue in international law, this is about minority rights everywhere.

Genuine federalism is so fundamental a requirement of a functioning democracy that I would equate it with free speech, and freedom of religion. A non sensitive state should have to answer to an international court when it denies a minority population its just rights, and genuine federalism. And Sri Lanka is a case study.

Keeping The Congress Below 100 And The BJP Below 150

Indian general election, 2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I think a strongly constituted National Front that runs a national campaign might be able to give a severe blow to the two big parties. It is possible to get the Congress below the 100 mark, and it is also possible for the BJP to be below 150.

But something like that can not happen on its own. There is work involved.

India 2014: Doing The Math For Nitish

BJP 150
Congress 100
AAP 20

JD(U) 35
Trinamool Congress 25
SP 30
BSP 30
AIADMK 30
CPI(M) 20
BJD 20
TDP 10

35 + 25 + 30 + 30 + 30 + 20 + 20 + 10 = 200
Others = 545 - (150 + 100 + 20 + 200) = 75

National Front = 200
AAP = 20
Others = 75

A majority government without either Congress or BJP support. Possible.

National Front Would Be A Good Name

Taj Mahal, Agra, India. Deutsch: Taj Mahal im indischen Agra. Español: Vista del Taj Mahal, Agra, India. Français : Le Taj Mahal, à Âgrâ, en Inde. Русский: Мавзолей Тадж-Махал, Агра, Индия. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

For the first time in India's history we are about to see a non-Congress, non-BJP coalition that will in every sense be more stable than anything the BJP or the Congress might be able to put together. And so I think a new name and a new structure is warranted. An apt name would be National Front.

This is not a Front that has ever existed before. And the primary differentiating point would be to give the Front a formal structure. There is a need to form a loose federation. Each member party needs to put forth a person who primarily resides in Delhi to form a Coordination Council. It is not a central committee. It is more loose. It is a federation.

This Coordination Council would meet monthly, and as often as necessary. And it would keep the wheels oiled and running.

This National Front would complete a fiver year term easy and might even do a 10 year term. It is only a coalition for the central government. Which means it is okay for Mayawati and Mulayam to compete in Utter Pradesh at the state level and still be part of the National Front in Delhi. They both do support the Congress government in Delhi right now, don't they? The same with the Left and Mamata. Jayalalita and DMK might also opt for the same. Laloo might come along later. So it would be okay to compete at the state level.

Given this formation and the new name I can see Nitish running the show in Delhi for 10 years. All one asks for is double digit growth rates.