Barackface

Sunday, December 09, 2012

Saturday, December 08, 2012

The NDA Option For Nitish
A Roadmap For Nitish
Nitish Is My Lula

Nitish is the best Chief Minister India has today, and has had for the past several years. The guy gave Bihar a 16% growth rate this past year. That is putting China to shame.

If Nitish is not the next Prime Minister of India then there is something wrong with Indian democracy.

It is possible neither the BJP nor the Congress go past 200 seats in 2014.

The best outcome would be for the BJP to realize that Bihar is bigger than Gujarat. And Bihar is doing better than Gujarat. And pushing Nitish as the NDA's PM candidate expands the NDA. With Modi at the helm, the NDA might get reduced to one party.

Being the NDA's PM candidate is also the best option for Nitish. That would snuff out Mulayam's chances. Mulayam is not a great PM candidate in the first place. The NDA option is better for Nitish than any Third Front option.

JD (U) - 27
BJP - 150
Trinamool Congress - 20
Shiv Sena - 10
Biju Janata Dal - 15
BSP - 20
SP - 15
RJD - 5
DMK - 15
AIADMK - 10
JD (S) - 2
CPI (M) - 15
Others - 20

Total - 324

The BJP will have less than half the weight in the new coalition. And so it would make even more sense to see Nitish at the helm. There is no way Modi could pull together a coalition like this one. For Nitish it would be easy.

With his focus on development Nitish might be able to bring about a bipolarization in Indian politics. Either you are with the Congress or you are with Nitish. The various Janata Dals might become one again and make another go for a national presence.

If Nitish is not pro poor I don't know who is. The communist parties are going to have to come along.

Indian general election, 2009 - Wikipedia
India's massive general election
BJP, minorities, and 2014 elections
NDA strides past UPA

If elections were held today, it would be NDA's comeback moment. UPA, which at 171-181 seats (against its actual 259 in 2009), is trailing behind NDA, whose tally stands at a respectable 195-205 (as against its actual 159).

Nitish to meet Mamata, fuels buzz of new front
‘NDA has not zeroed in on PM candidate’
Nitish Kumar for FDI in infrastructure, not in retail

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

I Am For Direct Dialogue With Iran

Iran Twitter Flag (Photo credit: People's Open Graphics)

The US talked to the Soviet Union and it had nuclear weapons. Iran does not have nuclear weapons, it might get them.

I belong in the war as a last resort school of thought. I think, in this case, dialogue is not the step before war. Dialogue will render war unnecessary.

Frankly, I think it is plain stupid not to talk.

Obama: Will 'Make a Push for Dialogue' with Iran on Nuclear Program

In President Barack Obama's Wednesday afternoon press conference, his first in eight months, he addressed the issue of negotiations over the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear program. ...... We've imposed the toughest sanctions in history. .... There should be a way in which they can enjoy peaceful nuclear power while still meeting their international obligations and providing clear assurances to the international community that they're not pursuing a nuclear weapon. ...... open up a dialogue between Iran and not just us but the international community .... we're not going to be constrained by diplomatic niceties or protocols.

The Redistricting Menace

In 1996, House Democrats also won the popular vote but remained in the minority (kind of)

Democratic House candidates appear to have won more of the popular vote than their Republican counterparts on Tuesday, despite what looks as though it will be a 33- or 35-seat GOP majority. .... Democrats have won roughly 49 percent of the House vote, compared to 48.2 percent for Republicans. ..... Despite losing the popular vote, Republicans are set to have their second-biggest House majority in 60 years and their third-biggest since the Great Depression. ..... Redistricting drew such a GOP-friendly map that, in a neutral environment, Republicans have an inherent advantage. ..... Republicans were clearly favored in 195 House districts, compared to Democrats being favored in 166. Some of this is because Democratic voters are more concentrated in urban areas, but it’s also because the GOP drew some very favorable redistricting maps in important states like North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. ..... Republicans were clearly favored in 195 House districts, compared to Democrats being favored in 166. Some of this is because Democratic voters are more concentrated in urban areas, but it’s also because the GOP drew some very favorable redistricting maps in important states like North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

How redistricting leads to a more partisan Congress — in two charts

89 of 435 congressional districts performed between 46 percent and 54 percent for each major political party in recent years. In other words, those were the real swing districts. ...... under the new congressional map created by redistricting — the districts where candidates are currently campaigning for seats in the next Congress — there are just 74 districts that fit that “swing district” bill. ..... 83 percent of congressional districts now clearly favor either Republicans or Democrats..... Redistricting is handled by the state legislatures in the vast majority of states — which leads lawmakers to draw safe districts for incumbents or, at least, draw districts that their party will be able to win. ..... There is an emerging movement to put that power in the hands of nonpartisan redistricting commissions.

Republicans, beaten and angry, disagree on what to do next

For many voters in broad swaths of the country — throughout California and elsewhere along the Pacific Coast, across the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic states — the Republican brand is poison. ...... "If we're going to be anything but a regional, middle-aged white-man party, we have to do the obvious thing, which is, first, accept the reality that America is a diverse nation and we need to start selling to those people," Weaver said. "There is climate change. Accept that. There are gay people in our midst, marrying one another. Get over it.... The government isn't going to deport 15 million [illegal immigrants], and they're not going to deport themselves."