There is a distinct possibility that the two people leading the national polls will fade away: Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton. McCain used to be in the lead. But that was months and months back. Three months, now that's a long time in politics.
The endorsements tell you more about the past than the future. Hillary has so many endorsements because there are Democrats across the country who feel like they owe it to her husband.
Howard Dean had all the top labor endorsements in 2003.
The only people who matter are the voters. And they are only now beginning to pay attention.
Healthy, Respectful Competition
Obama and Clinton have that. They have both left room to team up.
It Could Be Volatile
You could have Barack Obama win Iowa, and Hillary Rodham win New Hampshire. And you could have Obama win Nevada and Hillary come a close second in South Carolina. At that point, despite saturation media coverage, you could have the February 5 states voting independent of how the first four states voted. And we could wake up the morning of February 6 not knowing who the nominee is. And at that point the campaigns better have plenty of cash to keep going for one more month.
It could be a roller coaster ride for a good two full months. That is one scenario.
Another scenario. Barack leads the polls in Iowa, and is second in New Hampshire. He wins Iowa, then he wins Nevada. And that leads to Hillary's lead in New Hampshire evaporating. He wins the state. And the gets him a landslide in South Carolina. The black folks down there are suddenly awake to the possibility of a black president. When they finally come, they come with a vengeance.
All that leads to a resounding Obama victory on February 5. Hillary concedes early morning February 6. By the end of that day, we know they have paired up.
Or. Obama slugs it through January, then through February, and early March we know it's him. He picks Eliot Spitzer to give the country a clean break from the 1990s.
In The News
No Holiday for CandidatesWashington Post parades, rallies and other celebrations ..... hot dogs and hamburgers and ice cream ..... 119 days left in the year ..... the most front-loaded presidential voting schedule in history. .... midpoint in a marathon. .... there wasn't a cloud in the sky yesterday morning from Portsmouth, N.H., to Sioux City, Iowa ...... ever-energetic Romney .... long-distance debate ..... It was 10 full months ago when the first candidate formally announced for president -- and it has been more than six months since that candidate formally quit the race. Everything seems accelerated in Campaign 2008 ...... Industrial-size barbecue grills ..... the annual picnic hosted by the Northwest Iowa Labor Council and the Woodbury County Democratic Party. ...... she did for Bill Clinton in 2004, writing in his name .... she's got a good backbone. She's got Bill to back her up ..... riffing through what has happened to the country since he left office ..... She said she would end the war in Iraq, but do so responsibly. ...... As she always does, she concluded with an appeal to Democrats to help make her the first female president in history. She talked about the parents who bring their daughters to her events and about the older women -- in their 90s -- who have said they hope she succeeds. She said these woman have told her they were born before women could vote in America and want to live long enough to see a woman in the White House. ......... Romney likes where he stands in the race for the Republican nomination. ..... I won the Iowa straw poll, I'm ahead here in New Hampshire, ahead in Michigan, ahead in the Nevada ....... two speeches, two town halls, marching in a parade and greeting voters over breakfast ..... several outfit changes .... Romney's manner never changed ..... ex-governor almost never ceased smiling ...... his usual hyper-focused self .... shaking more than a hundred hands, posing for dozens of pictures, and signing a slew of autographs, all in about 30 minutes. ...... Romney run is a family affair ..... the heavy involvement of the couple's five sons ...... Romney was the only one of the GOP contenders in New Hampshire on Labor Day ..... couldn't resist a few jabs at Thompson. "Why the hurry? Why not take a little longer?" ...... While the Democrats are increasingly beating up on each other and President Bush, the Republican candidates are unified: they can't bash Sen. Hillary Clinton enough. ...... "Hillary Clinton would bring change, but it would be a sharp left turn." ..... shaking hands with voters one at a time in tiny towns dotting western Iowa. ..... He called war "awful" and said it was "wretched beyond all description." ..... a retreat would lead to "genocide, chaos; they will follow us home." ...... "Too much blood spilt there already. We should've never been there." ........ Five months ago, McCain launched what was planned as a mega-campaign with a flashy tour of Iowa, kicking off a months-long spending spree that left his campaign broke. ...... "No Surrender Tour ..... "I've never said anything but that it would be long and hard and tough." ..... the electricians, the sheet metal workers, the operating engineers, and in greatest number, the coal miners ..... chiefs of the United Steel Workers and Mine Workers of America ..... Clinton has won the transportation workers and aerospace machinists, while Chris Dodd got the firefighters ...... it might be the largest Labor Day parade in the country, but such is the state of the decades-old struggle of the labor movement. There were plenty of gaps in the crowd along the route. ........ As Sen. Barack Obama led a rowdy mob down the street here during a Labor Day parade, an organizer wearing a Mitt Romney pin stood on the sidewalk and stared in astonishment. "It's going to be tough to beat that guy," he said, shaking his head, to another man with a Romney sign. ...... Obama (D-Ill.) has not picked up measurable steam in the national polls since he annouced his candidacy more than six months ago. His most obvious strength has been seen in the money he has raised and in the jaw-dropping size of the crowds he draws -- a sign of what his campaign says is its solid ground organization. ....... taking swipes at the Washington establishment and the "cynical math" he implied other candidates were using to calculate a narrow victory rather than a broad consensus. ....... "There are those who tout their experience working the system in Washington -- but the problem is that the system in Washington isn't working for us, and hasn't for a long time" ...... "Think about it. We've been talking about the health care crisis in this country for decades. Yet through Democratic and Republican administrations we've failed to act. And you know why -- because the drug and insurance industries have spent over a billion dollars on lobbying in the past ten years alone to block reform." ....... "Too many in Washington see politics as a game. And that is why I believe this election cannot be about those who can play this game better. It has to be about who can put an end to the game-playing. The times are too serious, the stakes are too high." ..... If the Milford parade several hours later was a snapshot of how Obama is faring, it bodes well. He drew by far the loudest and most boisterous group, who grew so enthusiastic about marching that they started down the road ahead of schedule -- and were thus banished by organizers to the back of the parade line. ..... The Obama crowd, with drums and brass instruments, yelled out: "Obama-oh-eight. Be a part of something great!" ..... she had been an ardent Bill Clinton supporter in the 1990s but could not support his wife. ..... they are the old politics and Hillary is a symbol of the old Washington." ...... Grossman, who has a two-year-old son, was one of a handful of supporters selected to have dinner with Obama on Monday night. Between that and walking with him in the parade, she said, it was one of the best days of her life. The race for White House enters prime timeCNN Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Democrats but in tight race in Iowa .... Rudy Giuliani leads Republicans, but pundits question if he will get nomination ..... in this hectic, fast-paced 2008 campaign season, it's been full speed ahead since the beginning of the year. ...... relatively few people across the country have been paying attention to the candidates up until now ..... now "each and every campaign stop counts ..... She's been touting her experience for months, but now Clinton is also emphasizing that she'll be an agent of change, and that voters don't have to choose between experience and change. ...... she's too entrenched with the status quo in Washington, and that she's too polarizing and not a breath of fresh air that can bring change ........ In New Hampshire, which holds the first primary, and South Carolina, which holds the first southern primary, Clinton remains ahead by a comfortable margin in most polls. ....... four years ago at this time, Howard Dean was skyrocketing in all the national surveys. The former Vermont governor and current Democratic National Committee chairman continued to surge into the autumn and early winter before crashing and burning in Iowa and New Hampshire in January 2004. ........ Obama may trail Clinton in the early national and state polls, but he does lead her in another crucial barometer, campaign cash. .... Obama is also drawing large crowds out on the trail. ...... In the modern primary era, the Republican candidate in the top spot the September before the primaries has won the nomination. But there are questions about whether that will hold this time around. ........ the former Massachusetts governor has a healthy lead in the state polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. ..... Romney's also number one among Republicans when it comes to the race for campaign cash. His large war chest has allowed him to spend millions on television ads in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. ....... Thompson .... lackluster speeches, disappointing fundraising, critical stories about his lobbying and staff shakeups ...... Republican voters are less enthusiastic about their current crop of candidates than Democratic voters. After secretive Iraq detour, Bush heads to Australia summit Turkish Press President Bush Hints At Possible Troop WithdrawalsRTT News Bush Says Pace of Progress May Mean Fewer US Forces (Update4)Bloomberg Nepal government condemns attacks BBC News Thompson entry to be watched for effect on Giuliani Newsday Di confronted Camilla over affair Zee News Diana even warned Camilla to stay away from Charles. ... "couldn`t understand" what her husband saw in his former mistress .... "It was hard for Diana to understand what Charles saw in Camilla. I remember Diana telling me there were three people in her marriage and that she had confronted Camilla at one of the dinners they had - telling her to, `Back off and leave my husband alone`” ..... "She was really madly in love with Prince Charles, he was the love of her life. She was willing to do anything to make it work out. The only thing she could not tolerate was the one thing which would have allowed the marriage to continue - and that was to share Charles" Tourists Flee As Felix Nears Honduras Forbes Obama Critiques Clinton Forbes Democrat Barack Obama on Monday sharpened his critique of lead rival Hillary Rodham Clinton, warning against a return to "divisive, special interest politics" that had demoralized the country even before President Bush took office. ....... "As bad as this administration has been, it's going to take more than just a change in parties to truly turn this country around" ...... "George Bush and Dick Cheney may have turned divisive, special interest politics into an art form, but it was there before they got to Washington. If you and I don't stand up to challenge it, it will be there long after we leave." ...... the latest volley in the "change versus experience" debate that has dominated the dialogue ..... she argued that only a president experienced in the ways of Washington could bring about real political transformation. ...... Obama struck back hard ...... his years as a community organizer and consensus builder ..... sought to frame his hope-driven message as an antidote to the cynicism of political insiders ..... "A lot of people who've been in Washington a lot longer than me, they've got better connections, they go(to the)right dinner parties, they know how to talk the Washington talk," he said. "I may not have the experience Washington likes but I believe I have the experience America needs right now." ....... both Obama and John Edwards have stepped up their claim that Clinton is too cautious and too conventional to bring real change to Washington. ...... He also vowed to tell the truth always as president. .... Obama had a full day of campaign appearances in New Hampshire, where polls show him trailing Clinton by a wide margin. .... He and Republican hopeful Mitt Romney exchanged greetings at the parade .... Obama scooped ice cream for several hundred supporters at an outdoor ice cream social. Obama touts change, Clinton pitches experienceChicago Tribune "hope and change" .. not just rhetoric but rather "the causes of my life." ..... "Change is just a word if you don't have the strength and experience to make it happen," Clinton said ..... Romney weighed in with a prediction that Clinton would, in fact bring about change, only in the form of higher taxes, bigger government and greater tolerance for "illegal aliens." ...... In most of America, people were enjoying parades and barbecues on Monday ..... As an aide to Sen. John McCain sees it, the senator's weekend swing through Iowa and New Hampshire were more like "the re-re-kickoff." ..... The vast majority of voters aren't paying attention ..... there is a flood of advertising to come that could significantly alter perceptions. ...... push labor-law reforms through Congress that would make it easier for workers to organize. Obama Touts His Outsider ThemeNew York Times she is the candidate who can most effectively navigate the political channels of Washington to bring about change. ...... Obama added a dash of vinegar to his line about pundits who believe he lacks experience. ...... Only time in Washington translates into wisdom ..... time served doesn’t guarantee judgment. A resume says nothing about character ..... Obama also left voters with another fresh thought: humility. ..... “I’m reminded every single day that I am not a perfect man. I will not be a perfect president,” he said. “But I can promise you this: I will always tell you what I think and where I stand. I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face.” As Bush lands in Iraq, Clinton vows to end warAFP With Big Lead, Is Clinton Beatable? ABC News Many New Hampshire voters believe Clinton can go all the way. .... Mandy Grunwald. "We worry about everything. We try to win every vote." ..... sometimes the front-runners fall flat. .... Edwards said that he believes Clinton is beatable and that his campaign has a good chance because of its momentum. ..... "The problem is most Americans don't feel like they're represented there." ...... some critics believe she has a likability problem. ..... Clinton said even if she heads the Democratic ticket, she fully expects a knockdown fight. ... "The idea that you're going to escape the Republican attack machine Two-for-One Deal, Take TwoWall Street Journal "The day I'm elected," she said, "I'm going to be asking distinguished Americans -- including my husband -- of both parties, to start traveling around the world, and not just talking to governments and leaders, but talking directly to people and telling them that America is back." ........ Mr. Clinton has said he would continue as head of his Clinton Foundation .... "His expertise at handling high-pressure situations ...... the prospect of both Clintons in the White House doesn't bother him so much as "the idea of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton," with the two families taking turns in power. "What kind of message does that send to the rest of the world?" he said. "It's as if we're a monarchy." ......."Hillary is the best-prepared to be president of any nonincumbent I have ever had a chance to vote for" in 40 years, he said repeatedly. "You want to restore America's standing in the world overnight? Elect Hillary Clinton." ..... Obama has been a Clinton target for his relative inexperience and vague talk of "hope" for big changes. "You don't just do it by hoping it happens. You do it by hard work," she said ...... "Ultimately, to bring change, you have to know when to stand your ground and when to find common ground....You can't always demand everything your own way or you'll never get anything done in America." Political Memo Bill Clinton’s Challenge: Keep the Focus on His Wife New York Times Mr. Clinton is famously garrulous on an impressive range of topics: Touring a New Hampshire fair on Sunday, he gave an impromptu master class to reporters on how to grow oversized watermelons and pumpkins. So when it comes to a subject he could dissect on a cellular level, like his wife, he could probably soliloquize for days. ....... Even if they were not married, he says, he would still campaign for her as the best candidate. ..... The inner wonk stays buried for this speech — he keeps the dry policy to under a minute. ..... “she has the best plan to give us a clean, green energy future to create jobs, not cost jobs.” ..... asserting that other nations and world leaders are pulling for Mrs. Clinton’s election in 2008. The leaders are not named but seem to be from all over — Asia, Africa, some in Europe, he has said. On Sunday he roped in voters across Europe and Canada as well, citing a new poll that found Mrs. Clinton more popular than the other American presidential candidates in those countries. ........ the closing anecdote: Mr. Clinton invariably chokes up or bites his lower lip as he recalls how a New York firefighter grabbed his arm on a golf course one day and told him that Mrs. Clinton recognized early the potential health threats of 9/11 and sought assistance for workers at the site who became ill. ..... “I was standing there in tears, practically,” Mr. Clinton said in Portsmouth, N.H., describing the firefighter’s praise for her. “He said, ‘I would do anything I could to make her the next president.’ ” .......... whether the Clintons can persuade the firefighter to appear on the campaign trail at some point and hail Mrs. Clinton ..... Mrs. Clinton’s speech sometimes drags. .... finds Mrs. Clinton’s stump speech to be awkward at times. Campaigning in NH, Obama targets Clinton The Hill “We need to turn the page. We need to write a new chapter in American history,” Obama said. ...... Obama mentioned no fewer than three times that he was opposed to the Iraq war “from the start,” each time drawing his largest applause from the crowd....... Clinton’s and Obama’s efforts were a balance of their rock-star personas and the retail politics for which Iowa and New Hampshire are known. ..... took great pains Sunday and Monday to work the crowds, shaking hands and signing autographs. ...... healthcare .... “It should be our No. 1 domestic priority,” Obama told the table. “We’re going to fight for you.” ...... “He is so naïve,” Obama said, imitating critics. “He’s a hope peddler. He’s a hope monger. Well, I stand guilty as charged.” ..... Obama was joined by his wife and daughters, and the crowds in the park were younger than those greeting the Clintons the day before. Rep. Paul Hodes (D-N.H.), who has endorsed Obama and introduced Michelle Obama at the event, said the senator is making politics “cool again.” Starting gun fires, for real, in White House raceAFP the most intense US election in decades hit top gear awash in historic potential. ...... a four month sprint ... The Clintons drew huge crowds at a rally under the hot sun in the city of Concord, marvelled at giant pumpkins at a rustic country fair, and wooed voters in an idyllic square here, as dusk fell over a floodlit church spire. ....... The former first lady claimed the legacy of her husband's two-term presidency .... arguing that her simple crusade to become the first woman US president proved she embodied change. ..... Tina Turner's "Simply the Best" and "Every Little Thing She Does Is Magic" by the Police. ..... Obama paints the Clintons and President George W. Bush as purveyors of a soiled brand of partisan politics, as he sets his sights on the former first lady in his quest to become America's first black president. ...... "We need a woman in there to clean things up," she said. "Obama is good, but she knows what our lives are like," she said. ..... Mitt Romney, a multi-millionaire businessman credited with saving the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics from financial ruin, leads in Iowa and New Hampshire
Toward a Realistic Peace by Rudy Giuliani Foreign Affairs The next U.S. president will face three key foreign policy challenges: setting a course for victory in the terrorists' war on global order, strengthening the international system the terrorists seek to destroy, and extending the system's benefits. With a stronger defense, a determined diplomacy, and greater U.S. economic and cultural influence, the next president can start to build a lasting, realistic peace. ....... We are all members of the 9/11 generation. ........ our old assumptions about conflict between nation-states fell away ....... Much like at the beginning of the Cold War, we are at the dawn of a new era in global affairs, when old ideas have to be rethought and new ideas have to be devised to meet new challenges. ........ an ever-widening arc of security and stability across the globe ..... balancing realism and idealism ..... Idealism should define our ultimate goals; realism must help us recognize the road we must travel to achieve them. ...... Terrorists' War on Us ..... the complex war of ideas and ideals ..... Our economy is the strongest in the developed world. Our political system is far more stable than those of the world's rising economic giants. And the United States is the world's premier magnet for global talent and capital. ....... tempering our expectations of what American foreign policy can achieve ...... They follow a violent ideology: radical Islamic fascism, which uses the mask of religion to further totalitarian goals and aims to destroy the existing international system. These enemies wear no uniform. They have no traditional military assets. They rule no states but can hide and operate in virtually any of them and are supported by some. ........ emboldened by signs of weakness ..... U.S. troops will still be fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan when the next president takes office ...... the international state system that is the primary defense of civilization ...... these are only two battlegrounds in a wider war. The United States must not rest until the al Qaeda network is destroyed and its leaders, from Osama bin Laden on down, are killed or captured. ...... intelligence operatives, paramilitary groups, and Special Operations forces ..... close relationships with other governments and local forces ..... local forces are best able to operate in their home countries ...... a national missile defense system. ..... chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapon ...... more robust human intelligence ...... Preventing a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear attack on our homeland must be the federal government's top priority. We must construct a technological and intelligence shield that is effective against all delivery methods. ....... more effective diplomacy, combined with greater economic and cultural integration ...... international cooperation, and cooperation requires diplomacy. ...... One side denigrates diplomacy because it believes that negotiation is inseparable from accommodation and almost indistinguishable from surrender. The other seemingly believes that diplomacy can solve nearly all problems, even those involving people dedicated to our destruction. ........ strength and diplomacy hand in hand ...... U.S. diplomacy must be tightly linked to our other strengths: military, economic, and moral. ...... Reykjavík in 1986: he was open to the possibility of negotiations but ready to walk away if talking went nowhere ....... never talk for the sake of talking and never accept a bad deal for the sake of making a deal .... undermining popular support for their regime, damaging the Iranian economy, weakening Iran's military, and, should all else fail, destroying its nuclear infrastructure. ....... the era of cost-free anti-Americanism must end. ..... not by imposing our ideas on others but by appealing to their enlightened self-interest ..... the Voice of America program must be significantly strengthened and broadened. Its surrogate stations, such as Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty, which were so effective at inspiring grass-roots dissidents during the Cold War, must be expanded as well. Our entire approach to public diplomacy and strategic communications must be upgraded and extended, with a greater focus on new media such as the Internet. We confront multifaceted challenges in the Middle East, the Pacific region, Africa, and Latin America. In all these places, effective communication can be a powerful way of advancing our interests. We will not shy away from any debate. And armed with honest advocacy, America will win the war of ideas. ....... World events unfold whether the United States is engaged or not, and when we are not, they often unfold in ways that are against our interests. The art of managing a large enterprise is to multitask, and so U.S. foreign policy must always be multidimensional. ........ There is no realistic alternative to the sovereign state system. Transnational terrorists and other rogue actors have difficulty operating where the state system is strong, and they flourish where it is weak. ....... NATO's role and character should be reexamined. For almost 60 years, it has been a vital bond connecting the United States and Europe. ....... think more boldly and more globally ..... We should open the organization's membership to any state that meets basic standards of good governance, military readiness, and global responsibility, regardless of its location. ...... Much of America's future will be linked to the already established and still rising powers of Asia. These states share with us a clear commitment to economic growth, and they must be given at least as much attention as Europe. ....... U.S. cooperation with India on issues ranging from intelligence to naval patrols and civil nuclear power will serve as a pillar of security and prosperity in South Asia. ....... U.S. relations with China and Russia will remain complex for the foreseeable future. ....... act shortsightedly, undermining their long-term interest in international norms for the sake of near-term gains ...... make clear that only if China and Russia move toward democracy, civil liberties, and an open and uncorrupted economy will they benefit from the vast possibilities available in the world today. ........ Some look to the governments of Bolivia and Venezuela, and their mentor in Cuba, and see an inevitable path to greater statism. But elections in Colombia, Mexico, and Peru show that the spirit of free-market reform is alive and well ....... helping Africa today will help increase peace and decency throughout the world tomorrow ...... help Africa overcome AIDS and malaria ...... Ultimately, the most important thing we can do to help Africa is to increase trade with the continent. U.S. government aid is important, but aid not linked to reform perpetuates bad policies and poverty. It is better to give people a hand up than a handout. ...... The UN has proved irrelevant to the resolution of almost every major dispute of the last 50 years. ........ mechanisms for international discussion. ...... Much of the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America remains mired in poverty, corruption, anarchy, and terror. ...... The number of functioning democracies in the world has tripled since the 1970s. ....... democracy cannot be achieved rapidly or sustained unless it is built on sound legal, institutional, and cultural foundations. ...... It can only work if people have a reasonable degree of safety and security. Elections are necessary but not sufficient to establish genuine democracy. Aspiring dictators sometimes win elections, and elected leaders sometimes govern badly and threaten their neighbors. ........ Too much emphasis has been placed on brokering negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians -- negotiations that bring up the same issues again and again. ....... America's commitment to Israel's security is a permanent feature of our foreign policy. ..... Economic development and engagement are proven, if not fail-safe, engines for successfully moving countries into the international system. America's robust domestic economy is one of its greatest strengths. Other nations have found that following the U.S. model -- with low taxes, sensible regulations, protections for private property, and free trade -- brings not only national wealth but also national strength. ......... Ever more open trade throughout the world is essential. ..... a truly global trading system. ..... Foreign aid can help overcome specific problems, but it does not lead to lasting prosperity because it cannot replace trade. Private direct investment is the best way to promote economic development. ...... Companies such as Pepsi, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, and Levi's helped win the Cold War by entering the Soviet market. Cultural events, such as Van Cliburn's concerts in the Soviet Union and Mstislav Rostropovich's in the United States, also hastened change. ...... Today, we need a similar type of exchange with the Muslim countries that we hope to plug into the global economy. Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates are pointing the way by starting to interpret Islam in ways that respect the distinctiveness of their local cultures but are consistent with the global marketplace. ........ mutual respect and mutual benefit ..... Economic investment and cultural influence work best where civil society already exists. ....... helping build functioning civil societies with accountable governments ......... A hybrid military-civilian organization -- a Stabilization and Reconstruction Corps staffed by specially trained military and civilian reservists -- must be developed. ..... building roads, sewers, and schools; advising on legal reform; and restoring local currencies. ...... The United States did similar work, and with great success, in Germany, Japan, and Italy after World War II. ..... the rich civic traditions in these nations ....... America must play an even more active role to strengthen the international state system. ....... In this decade, for the first time in human history, half of the world's population will live in cities. ...... when security is reliably established in a troubled part of a city, normal life rapidly reestablishes itself: shops open, people move back in, children start playing ball on the sidewalks again, and soon a decent and law-abiding community returns to life. ....... Tolerating bad behavior breeds more bad behavior. ..... Eisenhower and his successors accepted Truman's framework, but they corrected course to fit the specific challenges of their own times ....... We must base our trust on the actions, rather than the words, of others. ..... evil must be confronted -- not appeased -- because only principled strength can lead to a realistic peace. The Long Road to Pyongyang Foreign Affairs The outcome of the North Korean nuclear saga has been held up as an example of the Bush administration defying its bellicose reputation and using multilateralism and diplomacy to defuse a crisis. But in fact, the story is one of extremely poor policymaking and a persistent failure to devise a coherent strategy -- with the result that North Korea has managed to dramatically expand its nuclear capability. ..... North Korea will freeze its main nuclear reactor, at Yongbyon, and allow the return of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors. ..... The portrait that emerges is not one of a confrontational, militaristic administration; what instead becomes apparent is an image of a White House with extremely poor conceptual strategies and decision-making processes. ....... From the beginning, President George W. Bush, as the nation's chief strategist, has failed to articulate a coherent policy for dealing with North Korea. The administration as a whole entered office without a clear foreign policy doctrine. ....... the basic elements of strategy -- ends, means, and the balance between them -- were not lucidly expressed or rigorously debated at the most senior levels of the U.S. government. The result was a strategic muddle, a swirling debate not guided by any clearly calculated long-term vision. ....... after six years, the process has wound up almost exactly where it started -- except now North Korea appears to have tripled the amount of nuclear weapons material in its possession and has become a declared nuclear power. ...... During the transition between administrations in late 2000 and early 2001, a team of Clinton administration national security officials traveled to the home of the secretary of state designate, Colin Powell, to brief him and the national security adviser designate, Condoleezza Rice, on North Korea policy. Powell expressed a desire to pick up on the progress that had been made during the Clinton administration -- progress achieved through extensive bilateral negotiations culminating in a 1994 accord, the Agreed Framework, that froze the North's Yongbyon nuclear facility and its five-megawatt nuclear reactor.
Report: U.S. Workers Most Productive Time American workers stay longer in the office, at the factory or on the farm ... they produce more per person over the year. .... They also get more done per hour than everyone but the Norwegians .... the United States "leads the world in labor productivity." ..... The average U.S. worker produces $63,885 of wealth per year .... The U.S.... also beats all 27 nations in the European Union, Japan and Switzerland in the amount of wealth created per hour of work ...... Norway .. inflated by the country's billions of dollars in oil exports and high prices for goods at home ..... third-place France. .... The U.S. employee put in an average 1,804 hours of work in 2006 ..... It pales, however, in comparison with the annual hours worked per person in Asia, where seven economies — South Korea, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Hong Kong, China, Malaysia and Thailand — surpassed 2,200 average hours per worker. But those countries had lower productivity rates. ....... America's increased productivity "has to do with the ICT (information and communication technologies) revolution, with the way the U.S. organizes companies, with the high level of competition in the country, with the extension of trade and investment abroad ........ a lack of investment in training, equipment and technology ...... it was important to raise productivity levels of the lowest-paid workers in the world's poorest countries. ..... China and other East Asian countries are catching up quickest with Western countries. Productivity in the region has doubled in the past decade and is accelerating faster than anywhere else Is Panama the Americas' Hong Kong? a $5.25 billion expansion of the Canal ...... demolition of their nation's century-old image as a U.S.-created banana republic. "This may even transform Panama into a First World country ....... The Canal was the country's reason for existence ..... dysfuncational political history .... will allow the world's new supersize container vessels to transit the Canal, potentially raising revenue to $5 billion a year by 2025. ..... "We are not like other Central American countries." ..... Panama's nagging reputation for corruption ..... Some 40% of Panamanians still live in poverty — and, in a recent poll, only 22% of them indicated they believed the project would bring economic benefits to the wider population. ..... promised that the lion's share of revenues generated by the Canal's expansion will go to anti-poverty programs such as education reform. ..... Former Foreign Minister Jorge Ritter recalls the domestic political cost paid by President Carter for agreeing to hand back the Canal Global Warming's Next Victim: Wheat
Inside the Googleplex The Economist Marge Simpson types her name into Google's search engine and is amazed to get 629,000 results. (“And all this time I thought ‘googling yourself' meant the other thing.”) She then looks up her house on Google Maps, goes to “satellite view” and zooms in. To her horror, she sees Homer lying naked in a hammock outside. “Everyone can see you; get inside,” she yells out of the window, and the fumbling proceeds from there. ...... it is making enemies in its own and adjacent industries ..... Some users now keep their photos, blogs, videos, calendars, e-mail, news feeds, maps, contacts, social networks, documents, spreadsheets, presentations, and credit-card information—in short, much of their lives—on Google's computers. And Google has plans to add medical records, location-aware services and much else. It may even buy radio spectrum in America so that it can offer all these services over wireless-internet connections. ....... “perhaps the most difficult privacy issues in all of human history ...... a force for good in the world, even in defiance of commercial logic. .... their biggest motivation is not to maximise profits but to improve the world. ..... Google is “arrogant” because it feels “invincible”, says a Xoogler who left to run a start-up firm. The internal attitude towards customers, rivals and partners is “you can't stop us” and “we will crush you” ....... Google worth $160 billion .... revenues of $16 billion and profits of $4.3 billion this year .... Google's success still comes from one main source: the small text ads placed next to its search results and on other web pages. ...... “All that money comes 50 cents at a time ..... three times the volume of its nearest rival, Yahoo!. .... it took a whopping 73% of the budgets of companies that advertise on search engines (versus 21% and 6%, respectively, for Yahoo! and Microsoft). ..... newspapers of the dead-tree sort. .... Its costs are mostly fixed, so any incremental revenue is profit. ..... Google has built, in effect, the world's largest supercomputer. It consists of vast clusters of servers, spread out in enormous datacentres around the world. ..... This infrastructure means that Google can launch any new service at negligible cost or risk. ...... “search, ads, and apps” ..... A new technology, called Google Gears, will make these applications usable even when there is no internet connection. .... constant rumours .... It used to be conventional wisdom that Google would build cheap personal computers for poor countries. This turned out to be nonsense, because Google does not want to make hardware. ....... It is planning to enter an auction for valuable radio spectrum in America, and thinking of radically new business models to make money from wireless data and voice networks, perhaps a free service supported by ads. ..... “It's axiomatic that companies eventually have crises,” says Mr Schmidt. And history suggests that “tech companies that are dominant have trouble from within, not from competitors.” In Google's case, he says, “I worry about the scaling of the company.” Google has been hiring “Nooglers” (new Googlers) at a breathtaking rate. In June 2004 it had 2,292 staff; this June the number had reached 13,786. ...... Google tends to win talent wars because its brand is sexier and its perks are fantastically lavish. Googlers commute on discreet shuttle buses (equipped with wireless broadband and running on biodiesel, naturally) to and from the head office, or “Googleplex”, which is a photogenic playground of lava lamps, volleyball courts, swimming pools, free and good restaurants, massage rooms and so forth. ....... One former executive, now suing Google over her treatment, says that the firm's personnel department is “collapsing” and that “absolute chaos” reigns. When she was hired, nobody knew when or where she was supposed to work, and the balloons that all Nooglers get delivered to their desks ended up God knows where. She started receiving detailed e-mails “enforcing” Google's outward informality by reminding her that high heels and jewellery were inappropriate. Before the corporate ski trip, it was explained that “if you wear fur, they will kill you.” ........... Google is a paradise only for some, she argues. Employees who predate the IPO resemble aristocracy. Engineers get the most kudos, people with other functions decidedly less so. Bright kids just out of college tend to love it, because the Googleplex in effect replaces their university campus—with a dating scene, a laundry service and no reason to leave at weekends. Older Googlers with families tend to like it less, because “everybody, even young mums, works seven days a week.” ....... by trying to create a “Utopia” of untrammelled creativity, Google ended up with “dystopia”. ..... Google has composed a rigorous algorithmic approach to hiring, based on grade-point averages, college rankings and endless logic puzzles on whiteboards. This “genetic engineering of their workforce,” he says, means that “everybody there is a rocket scientist, so everybody is also insecure” and the back-stabbing and politics are reminiscent of an average university's English department. ........ “Creativity comes out of people bumping into each other and not knowing where to go.” The most famous expression of this is the “20% time”. .... It still has only one proven revenue source and most big innovations, such as YouTube, Google Earth and the productivity applications, have come through acquisitions. ...... the 20% time works out to be 120% time .... The chances of ideas being executed, he adds, “are basically zero.” ..... The same phenomenon changed Microsoft in the 1980s, when allegedly T-shirts popped up saying FYIFV (“Fuck you, I'm fully vested”). Already some are going to even “cooler” start-ups, such as Facebook or Twitter. ...... the company's policy of not providing guidance to Wall Street on future earnings ..... Google is fast becoming something like a bank, but one that keeps information rather than money. ...... only a “tiny” number of engineers have access to the databases and everything they do is recorded. ........ could use a person's search history and advertising responses in combination with, say, his location and the itinerary in his calendar, to serve increasingly useful and welcome search results and ads. ...... The test comes when the good times end. Scrumming down France's Nicolas Sarkozy helps to create a European energy giant ...... Sarkozy has shown his ability to loosen another industrial knot. ..... The French state will go from owning 80% of a medium-sized energy company to holding 35% of a new global energy giant. GDF Suez, as it will be called once shareholders rubber-stamp the deal, will be the leading gas company in Europe and the global leader in liquified natural gas. The merged group also owns nuclear power stations in Belgium and has strong positions in America, Brazil and the Middle East. ....... He accepts that France must adopt modern ideas such as Anglo-Saxon capitalism and globalisation. Running fast, but where is he going? Pro-American, inspired by morals but pragmatic too: Nicolas Sarkozy sets out his ideas for a new foreign policy ..... Nicolas Sarkozy's hyperactivity .... Sarkozy has persuaded the European Union to adopt a “simplified treaty”, given a diplomatic push to peacekeeping efforts in Darfur, floated the idea of a “Mediterranean Union”, helped to free Bulgarian nurses on death row in Libya, lunched with George Bush at Kennebunkport, dispatched his foreign minister to Iraq, and, this week, delivered a landmark foreign-policy speech in which he issued a stern warning to Iran. ......... campaign promise of a “rupture” with the Chirac era ..... Sarkozy seeks to achieve these aims as a partner of America, not an antagonist .... He even spent his summer holiday in America, which he has called “the greatest democracy in the world”. ..... the stark choice over Iran, should sanctions fail: “an Iranian [nuclear] bomb, or the bombing of Iran.” ....... The choice of Bernard Kouchner, a former UN administrator of Kosovo and co-founder of Médecins Sans Frontières, as foreign minister was hugely symbolic. ..... end French paternalism in Africa. ..... He pushed hard, for example, for the UN Security Council resolution on a new peacekeeping force for Darfur. ...... the meeting on Lebanon that Mr Kouchner organised in July in Paris, inviting all Lebanese political groupings, including Hizbullah—a prospect that would have been unthinkable for the Americans. ...... Sarkozy, though, is nothing if not a risk-taker. ..... 71% thought Mr Sarkozy's first 100 days had been positive, and 75% approved of his efforts regarding France's place in the world. The world may still be sizing him up, but the French seem to like what they see.
Amitabh Bachchan rules hearts of Israelis and Palestinians Hindu Israelis and Palestinians, who differ on almost every issue, have a common love -- superstar Amitabh Bachchan, who rules over their hearts. The popularity that Bachchan enjoys here will be envied even by Hollywood stars. Walking through the streets of Jerusalem, one can hear songs from Bollywood movies, especially those starring the Big B. DVDs of Hindi movies are available in most video shops here, with films starring Bachchan a big hit among locals. A single DVD costs 50 Shekel (Rs 500). The challenge Bachchan faces here is only from Gabbar Singh -- the character played by late Amjad Khan in the classic film "Sholay" -- who is equally popular among people of all ages, from teenagers to the elderly. "I like watching the movies of Amit (Bachchan) and Amjad, I love their action movies," said 22-year-old Yassar, who runs a small shop near the church of Sepalca, where, according to Catholic beliefs, Jesus Christ was crucified. "My friends and I watch their movies at least once a week," he said. "'Lawaris', 'Kalia', 'Deewar', 'Parvarish', 'Zanzeer', 'Sahenshah', 'Sholay', 'Black' -- we have watched all these movies," he said and started singing, along with one of his friends, the song "Janu meri jaan, mein tere qurban, main tera tu meri jane sara Hindustan" from the movie "Shaan". Someone lost the plot Hindustan Times For months if not years, every little thing about the Sholay remake made news. The final product did just the opposite. Critics watched in shocked silence, screamed blue murder and for once, the movie going public agreed wholeheartedly . ...... the disjointed script and direction, aggravated by hammy performances, and a dull music score ..... Shah Rukh Khan's Chak De! India continues to score across the country . Resignation, and anger, over Becks' absence MSNBC Overreliance on Beckham spells trouble for MLSESPN Oh Becks! America Hardly Knew YeThe Associated Press Ghana: As We Enjoy Soccer AllAfrica.com Dell to expand Philippine operations ZDNet Asia NBC, Apple play game of brinkmanship CNET News.com We’re ready for baby no.5: Brad Pitt Times of Indiahe simply loves being a father ... "I love it and can't recommend it any more highly - although sleep is non-existent," he said. .... "It's the most fun I've ever had and also the biggest pain in the ass I've ever experienced. ... "It makes me much more efficient because when I work I really have to focus, I know I've less time to get things done. Actually I'm quite pleased by it," he added. Pakistan's Bhutto, Sharif May Be Barred From Polls (Update1) Bloomberg Bhutto, 54, who leads the largest opposition Pakistan People's Party ..... Bhutto, prime minister from 1988 to 1990 and 1993 to 1996, has lived in self-imposed exile in London and Dubai since 1999 ..... Bhutto's demands ``require changes in the constitution that cannot be the subject of political arrangement,'' Aziz said. ...... the president could revoke Sharif's pardon and he may be arrested on arrival. ...... Under Aziz, record foreign investment has helped lift the stock market to an all-time high and economic growth to an average 7.5 percent in the past four years. ..... Aziz, a former global head of private banking and executive vice president at New York-based Citibank NA ..... this is the first time that we have shown such sustainable growth ..... Aziz, who was appointed finance minister by Musharraf in 1999 to help turn around an economy that had barely one month of foreign exchange reserves, was elected prime minister by parliament in 2004. ...... The president is elected by Pakistan's national and provincial lawmakers, while only national legislators elect the prime minister. ..... Pakistan is seeking $6.5 billion in foreign investment, which averaged $400 million in the decade of 1990s ...... The government plans to sell stakes overseas in the biggest lender National Bank of Pakistan, Habib Bank Ltd., the second- ranked by assets and Kot Addu Power Co., the biggest state-run electricity producer, this fiscal year. ...... ``Pakistan is a country which has transformed, which is recognized today as having a lot of potential,'' Aziz said. The size of the economy has doubled and foreign currency reserves have reached a record $16 billion, he said. When moderates feel lost in the GOP Los Angeles Times In an announcement last month that left Missouri politicos agape, state Sen. Chris Koster, a rising Republican star and chairman of the Senate's GOP caucus, abruptly declared himself a Democrat. ....... slavishly following the dictates of "religious extremists." .... a speech he repeated three times as he hopscotched across the state .... "There's no precedent for it in the state of Missouri," said GOP consultant Paul Zemitzsch. But the move sounded like deja vu just across the state line in Kansas. ...... Three prominent Kansas Republicans moved into the Democratic column in late 2005 and 2006, voicing similar concerns about the influence of social conservatives. One of those defectors was elected attorney general. Another -- who once chaired the Kansas Republican Party -- now serves as lieutenant governor. ....... how effectively social and religious conservatives dominate the Republican Party across several Midwest states -- and how frustrating that can be to self-styled moderates who would prefer to focus on economic issues. ...... a national coalition of GOP moderates called the Republican Leadership Council. ...... critics see Koster's switch as opportunism, a way to bolster his expected candidacy for state attorney general in 2008 -- a year many pundits expect will be good for Democrats across the board. .... Koster responds that he jumped from the fourth-ranking GOP position in the state Senate -- with a cushy office and a chance at a still-higher leadership role -- to become the lowest-ranking Democrat in the state Senate. He will face stiff competition in the Democratic primary for attorney general. ...... When he made the switch, he announced he was no longer "pro-life" but would henceforth support legal abortion. Hurricane Felix Heads for Honduras With 165-Mph Winds (Update3) Bloomberg Bangladesh detains Hyderabad blasts accusedHindustan Times North Korea to Be Removed From US Terrorism List (Update3)Bloomberg India launches communications satellite AFP India seeks to capture 10% of world space launch marketRIA Novosti China reduces investment barriers China Daily China to report military data to UNAljazeera.net Google looks at payments by mobile phone Times Online As City-Wide WiFi Fall Apart, An Opening For WiMax 24/7 Wall St. President Bush makes surprise visit to Iraq Los Angeles Times Obscure Groups Claim Responsibility for Nepal Bombings Voice of America Powerful Hurricane Felix threatens Central America Reuters Canada 'Special treatment' for Bihar: FM Times of India Ex-hostages say Taliban beat them for refusing to convert AFP 130 Missing Pakistani Troops' Fate Unclear CBS News The Pakistani military and local officials in the country's tribal region along the Afghan border were still awaiting news Monday on the release of as many as 130 military and paramilitary soldiers kidnapped last week. ..... Peshawar, capital of the Northwest Frontier Province ..... The troops were kidnapped in Waziristan, a volatile region in the Northwest Frontier Province. ...... the militants were demanding the release of a number of hardline militants captured by the government ..... Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) ..... The party has a large following in the province - Pakistan's most populous region, Punjabhome to more than 60 percent of the 165 million-strong population. ...... The U.S. and Britain are believed to have privately urged Musharraf to reach an agreement with Bhutto that would bring the support of a populist politician to his side, and help lift his increasingly sagging credentials. .... 90,000 Pakistani soldiers deployed in the region in support of the U.S.-led war on terror. Clinton: Change is better with experience Los Angeles Times Clinton Embraces Mantle of ChangeWashington Post With a New Speech, Clinton Lays Out Goals as President New York Times the “four big goals” she would have as president and saying she was willing to “work within the system” and make “principled compromises” to achieve them. ...... a pragmatist and an alliance-builder .... drawing a pointed contrast to the outsider messages of Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards. ...... Referring to the Roosevelts and Johnson, she said, “They got big things done because they knew it wasn’t just about the dream, it’s about the results.” ...... “You can’t pretend the system doesn’t exist.” ..... “You have to know when to stick to your principles and fight,” she said, “and know when to make principled compromises.” ...... a two-day kickoff for her fall push ..... the Clinton camp’s argument that she is the most experienced candidate and would still represent change, as a woman and an ideological opposite of President Bush. ..... “Change is just a word without the strength and experience to make it happen.” ..... she would unveil her universal health insurance plan in two weeks. ..... “restore America’s standing in the world,” “rebuild America’s middle class and the economy to support it,” “reform our government” and “reclaim the future for our children.”
