Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Hong Kong: Endgame Scenarios

Endgame 1: The Protestors Get Tired

One weekend they simply don't show up. Because they got tired. I don't see this happening. If anything, like a hurricane in the Bahamas, this thing seems to only gather further momentum.

Endgame 2: Beijing Sends In The Force

The PLA crosses the border and marches in. I don't see this happening. Beijing is smart enough to realize it will face major international sanctions. The tariffs that only the US has imposed, many major countries will impose. This act should be the least palatable to Beijing. This route chosen leads to a collapse of the communist party inside China because it starts a chain reaction.

Endgame 3: Inaction

Which is what is happening right now. Carrie Lam will not move the needle. Beijing will not move the needle. They basically hope for endgame 1, even though they do not so spell it out.

Endgame 4: The Protestors Get Better Organized, Locally As Well As Globally

Unless they want to also play the tire you out game, the protestors have no choice but to get better organized. Join this or that political party in the millions. Have elected leadership. Hold regular meetings. Pass resolutions after debate and discussion. Organize globally. Although the movement has been local to Hong Kong, it is only a matter of time before some questions will arise. Why are your demands good only for Hong Kong? What about the rest of China? In China, there might be fear. But what about the global Chinese diaspora? Why are you not winning the debate among the global Chinese diaspora? An interesting part of this development will be that the protest leaders will have to face the fact that they don't necessarily want a copycat political system to what America has. The political and economic system in the US is right now undergoing serious internal questioning. But unless the movement is capable of that debate and discussion, it is not a mature movement.

This last option seems to be the only available option.

Hurricane Hong Kong, will you hit Alabama?


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Carrie Lam Should Invite Protest Leaders For Talks

It is not realistic to think Xi Jinping will sit down for talks with the protest leaders. That might actually be a violation of one country, two systems. And I am not sure Beijing has instructed Carrie Lam to not talk to the protestors. I don't think she consulted Beijing before she decided on the mask ban, which was not a wise move.

Hong Kong Police is already doing the best it can. It is irresponsible of Carrie Lam to push it all onto a Hong Kong Police that used to be known as "Asia's Finest," but now has taken a beating in reputation. Hong Kong Police now has a major image problem.

The threats of "emergency powers," and "military crackdown" are empty and should not be issued, otherwise that will lead to a further erosion of her credibility and authority, worse than the one after the "mask ban."

The most important demand has already been met. Some of the demands can be negotiated. For example, three of the demands are about police conduct. A compromise position would be that the 2,000 plus who have been arrested are released, and although there is an investigation, it is more in the spirit of truth and reconciliation, not intended for punitive purposes. As to whether what has happened is "riot" or "protest," well for that you have free speech. You debate that part as much as you want.

The final demand is tricky. Carrie Lam could say, it is not in my power to accept or reject that demand. And so I can't discuss it. And that would be a fair thing to do. She truly does not have the power to accept the fifth demand.

The onus is on Carrie Lam as the Chief Executive of Hong Kong. She should simply invite the protest leaders for talks.




Hong Kong: Carrie Lam hints at further measures to suppress protests Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam has hinted at further measures to suppress the increasingly violent protests in the financial hub ahead of her annual policy speech, which will launch economic but not political measures in an attempt to douse widespread discontent....... the increasingly violent acts in recent weeks, which has seen activists hurling dozens of petrol bombs at police while others trashed metro stations as well as shops and banks seen as pro-Beijing. A home-made bomb was remotely detonated as a police car drove past on Sunday night and an officer also had his neck slashed by a protester. ........

Chinese president, Xi Jinping, warned during his trip to Nepal on Sunday that “anyone attempting to split China in any part of the country will end in crushed bodies and shattered bones”

....... the increasingly severe police beatings of protesters, media and bystanders in recent months have caused sweeping resentment. Ordinary people yell obscenities when riot police officers are seen on the streets........ Lam said her annual policy address, scheduled for Wednesday when the legislature resumes sessions, would launch economic measures to ease the land and housing situation. Mainland Chinese officials have repeatedly said unaffordable housing and employment issues are the “root cause” of Hong Kong’s social unrest, although political scientists say economic sweeteners alone will not solve the city’s political crisis........ She condemned the violent attacks on mainland Chinese businesses, shops seen as pro-Beijing, and pro-government politicians’ offices. “To say these were to fight for freedom and democracy could not be further from the truth,” she said. ....... she said her government remained committed to holding district council elections as scheduled on 24 November, despite the unstable social situation........ the Communist party mouthpiece Xinhua news agency said “Hong Kong has slipped into a dangerous abyss and a critical moment” and urged the business sector and civil servants to shun political neutrality, show their support for the police and refrain from “condoning the rioters” for ruining the city’s prosperity.

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam says she expects police to submit full report to coroner on death of 15-year-old girl, that has triggered violence and conspiracy theories The chief executive also said more than 10 police officers were injured, as the force came under attack from hard-core protesters over the weekend.

US senator Ted Cruz accuses Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam of cancelling meeting with him out of ‘weakness’ and ‘fear’ of anti-government protesters Ted Cruz said he had been looking forward to talks with chief executive but was told when he landed in the city that the meeting had been cancelled ....... Republican senator also said he had met ‘non-violent protest leaders’ and impressed upon them the need to shun violence .......

“Prior to the meeting being cancelled, Ms Lam’s office asked that I agree to keep everything said in the meeting secret and not inform the press of anything she had to say,” Cruz said.

......... Cruz’s anti-Beijing campaign has seen him introduce a bill to amend the US-Hong Kong Policy Act, which would require the State Department to certify the city’s autonomy if it is to continue enjoying special trade and economic benefits under the existing arrangement....... Cruz and other China hawks in the US Congress are also pushing for the bipartisan Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which would require Washington to assess whether the city should still be afforded its special status in light of political developments........ A couple of protesters were at Hong Kong’s airport to greet him upon arrival and thank him for his support for their cause – they had reportedly bought flight tickets so they would be allowed into the terminal building, which is off-limits to protesters after the chaos they caused during previous demonstrations at the arrival and departure halls. ....... “I recognise that some of the protests have turned violent. There is considerable concern that the protests are being infiltrated by agents of the Chinese government precisely to cause that violence, to turn the protests violent. I don’t know if that is happening or not; I can tell you the protest leaders with whom I spoke today believe it is happening,” he said. ......

“What I have encouraged the protest leaders with whom I have spoken is to embrace non-violent protest, to follow the tradition of Gandhi in India and Dr Martin Luther King in the United States

........ “That can be difficult to carry out, it can be particularly difficult in the face of violent oppression by government forces, of police beatings and shootings.” ....... “There is a reason the Communist Party in China wants the Hong Kong protests to turn violent because the Chinese Communist Party very much wants to characterise these protests as violent acts of terrorism rather than democracy protesters standing up for human rights,” he said. ..... “But my strong encouragement to the protesters here in Hong Kong is resist the urge to respond to brutality in like kind, but instead stand with dignity.”

‘Not feasible to relaunch a debate on universal suffrage now,’ Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam tells EU, according to internal report Chief executive said she expected a heavy defeat for pro-establishment camp in upcoming district council elections....... Lam reportedly said this year’s policy address will be focused on land and housing, and ‘reiterating confidence in one country, two systems’ ....... it was not feasible to relaunch a debate on universal suffrage now, as that would require constitutional steps by the National People’s Congress and society was too polarised ....... Lam reportedly stated there was nothing to be gained by opening a discussion on something that could not be delivered at present. Universal suffrage is one of five core demands of anti-government protesters......... The chief executive, who “seemed to be in an upbeat mood”, said she had every intention of ensuring the district council elections, scheduled for November 24, would proceed as planned. But she noted it was “up to protesters”......

she said “you can’t negotiate with the mob”

....... “She asserted that the unrest had now descended into ‘sheer and blatant violence’. It was no longer possible to envisage an end to violence being secured by meeting any of the four demands of protesters, given the activity of hard-core elements – who may have ‘organisations behind them’,” the report read........ Lam stood by the new anti-mask law, which took effect on October 5, arguing it had contributed to a decrease in protest numbers and in the use of petrol bombs. She added that at the moment there was no plan to enact further emergency powers.........Thousands of protesters have defied the ban and more than 70 people have been detained over the new law...... Lam did not share a possible time frame for future dialogues with the public, in spite of having confirmed that large-scale encounters were still planned, as smaller group meetings were continuing. While Lam emphasised her determination to “‘put Hong Kong back in business’”
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Warren's Lead: Expected

ELIZABETH WARREN LEADS JOE BIDEN BY DOUBLE DIGITS IN LATEST 2020 POLL Warren tops the Democratic candidate field with 28 percent of the vote while Sanders comes in second with 21 percent. Biden, who has maintained his status as Democratic front-runner since entering the race in the spring, has fallen to just 18 percent....... Warren is holding steady as primary voters' second choice, meaning she is in good position to rise as other candidates drop out of the race...... Warren, 70, is the only top-three candidate who beats Trump on perceptions of how health impacts their ability to govern. Two-thirds of voters said they believe Warren's physical condition is good enough

Right now it is looking like:

President: Elizabeth Warren
Vice President: Bernie Sanders
Attorney General: Kamala Harris
Secretary Of Urban Affairs: Pete
Secretary Of Labor: Andrew Yang
UN Ambassador: Tulsi Gabbard
Texas Governor: Beto
Chancellor, Obama Library: Joe Biden



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