Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam

I am trying to understand what might be going on.

Xi Jinping is the only one who can decide. But he is acting above the fray. And the way the system is designed, people who report to him are trying their best to make him look like the tough guy he is supposed to be.

That works if all you have to do is wait. In a few weeks, the whole thing will fizzle out.

Well, it has been more than a few months, and the whole thing is only gathering more momentum.

The political system in China is not designed to respond to what has been happening in Hong Kong. What has been happening is under the full glare of global media, old and social. The whole thing is being webcast live. The Chinese communists don't know how to respond.

Hong Kong is a bigger threat than Donald Trump and the trade war. It is like Beijing is having to fight two wars at once, neither of which is military. A military war would be relatively easy. This is a phantom war.

The system is inflexible. Formally withdraw the extradition bill and the whole thing might go away. But they can't even do that. The system is that inflexible. It will break, but it will not bend. The folks in Beijing are naive in thinking the breaking point is far. Objects in the rearview mirror are closer than they appear.

How might this whole thing play out?

One fine morning the protesters wake up and realize they don't want to do this anymore. This is what Beijing is counting on. This is the least likely scenario.

The other extreme is Beijing sends in troops. This would be the stupidest move on their part. That will end communist rule inside China, guaranteed. The CCP will not celebrate a new year.

The moderate scenario is where Beijing starts by accepting the key demand. Or it even accepts all five demands and claims it a victory for one country, two systems. But this makes too much sense. If they were to do this, they would have done it already. The political system in China runs like a rhinoceros. It does not know zigzag.

I feel like Beijing might have already entered a no-win phase in this situation. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Although I can't be too sure. And I have not been reading enough on the details.

We will know when the dam starts to break. It might be in the form of one arrest too many, one beating too many by the Hong Kong police. Or support protests in the other cities of the world. Or the protesters managing a complete shutdown of everything in Hong Kong, the airport, the stock exchange, everything.

While Beijing moves towards October 1 like an ostrich.



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Hong Kong Chief Executive Can't Choose To Quit

Hong Kong leader says she would 'quit' if she could, fears her ability to resolve crisis now 'very limited' Protesters have expanded their demands to include complete withdrawal of the proposal, a concession her administration has so far refused. ....... Lam suggested that Beijing had not yet reached a turning point. She said Beijing had not imposed any deadline for ending the crisis ahead of National Day celebrations scheduled for October 1. And she said China had “absolutely no plan” to deploy People’s Liberation Army troops on Hong Kong streets....... Lam noted, however, that she had few options once an issue had been elevated “to a national level,” a reference to the leadership in Beijing, “to a sort of sovereignty and security level, let alone in the midst of this sort of unprecedented tension between the two big economies in the world.” ...... In such a situation, she added, “the room, the political room for the chief executive who, unfortunately, has to serve two masters by constitution, that is the central people’s government and the people of Hong Kong, that political room for maneuvering is very, very, very limited.” .....

The Chinese government rejected a recent proposal by Lam to defuse the conflict that included withdrawing the extradition bill altogether

...... But she said China was “willing to play long” to ride out the unrest, even if it meant economic pain for the city, including a drop in tourism and losing out on capital inflows such as initial public offerings. ....... “Nowadays it is extremely difficult for me to go out,” she said. “I have not been on the streets, not in shopping malls, can’t go to a hair salon. I can’t do anything because my whereabouts will be spread around social media.” ...... Lam, a devout Catholic, attended St Francis’ Canossian College ..... After studying sociology at the University of Hong Kong, she went on to a distinguished career as a civil servant in Hong Kong. She was elected city leader in March 2017 by a 1,200-member election committee stacked with Beijing loyalists....... On July 1, 2017, the day she was sworn in, Lam donned a white hard hat as she walked with Xi to inspect the new Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge, which physically links Hong Kong to mainland China. ....... Lam and her government later came under fire for banning the party and the disqualification of pro-democracy lawmakers. ...... Pollster Robert Chung said Lam’s success in pushing through many controversial proposals bolstered her belief she would be able to ram through the extradition bill....... At the meeting last week, Lam said the extradition bill was her doing and was meant to “plug legal loopholes in Hong Kong’s system.” ....... “This is not something instructed, coerced by the central government,” she said........ “And this huge degree of fear and anxiety amongst people of Hong Kong vis-à-vis the mainland of China, which we were not sensitive enough to feel and grasp.”




Let that sink in a little. Carrie Lam, the Hong Kong Chief Executive appointed by Beijing, is saying she does not have the option to quit. Everyone has the option to quit. But no, not Carrie Lam.

She just made a strong case for why the Chief Executive for Hong Kong needs to be someone directly elected by the people.

Not only can she not quit, obviously she thinks she does not have the option to privately tell people in Beijing that, hey, maybe you should get someone else. They are not listening. Going public with the opinion, she calculated, was her best chance to be heard in Beijing. That is dysfunction.

Meeting the five demands of the Hong Kong protesters keeps intact one country, two systems. There is no loss of face for Beijing in accepting the five demands. But not even the top demand has been met after all these months. Beijing is so divorced from Hong Kong realities. It is as if Beijing were London, and Hong Kong was Delhi.

Maybe the shelf life for communism is 70 years. That is how long it lasted in Russia. It has been 70 years in China. All the Hong Kong protesters have to do is stay put.

I don't blame Carrie Lam. She does not have the power to accept or reject the demands. The whole thing is above her pay grade. Whereas the committees in Beijing act like deer in the headlights. They know they are powerless in the face of the protests. They think if they wait long enough, the whole thing will go away. Wishful thinking.
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Saturday, August 31, 2019

Delhi Must Restore Normalcy In Kashmir



Pakistan brought to a standstill for 'Kashmir hour' demonstrations
'Normalcy' vs reality: Conflicting narratives about Kashmir
Kashmir Live Updates: Pak ready for conditional bilateral talks with India, says Qureshi
Restrictions on movement of people lifted in most parts of Kashmir normal life remained affected across the valley for the 27th consecutive day on Saturday...... The markets continued to remain shut, while public transport was off the roads, the officials said, adding schools also remained closed. ..... landline telephone services have been restored in most places across the valley in view of the improving situation

Meet Kashmiri girl whose video is creating sensation she lives in Mumbai and works for a Hong Kong-based company..... According to Mirchandani, her ancestors migrated to Kashmir from Sindh a decade before partition. She claims that she comes from a Muslim family, but later embraced Sanatana Dharma.





The Road to 'Naya Kashmir' more than half the police stations in the Valley have relaxed curbs on day-time movement. People have withdrawn over Rs 800 crore from ATMs over the past fortnight, indicating that "the wheels of the economy continue to grind" for the common man ...... Article 370 permitted J&K to have its own constitution, its own flag and full autonomy in its internal administration, except for defence, foreign policy and communications, which were left for the Union government to control. ..... Once these leaders emerge from the silence of arrest, they may be reduced to pleading for the restoration of statehood at the earliest, which the central government has said it will consider. ...... Modi has signalled that he will render the current lot of political leaders irrelevant in the state by handing over the reins of the new Union territory to a new crop of grassroots leaders to build a 'Naya Kashmir'. ....... The BJP and the RSS have for decades made their intention clear on the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A (according to which non-permanent residents of J&K could not purchase or own land in the state). But the gameplan to achieve this was set in motion only in the final year of the first term of the Modi government....... "The problem in Kashmir is largely due to 50-odd political families there. They have been milking the issue. They don't want any benefit to be given to ordinary Kashmiris. People want freedom from such political families who have been preying on their emotions for 50 years. ..... "It was a corrupt edifice built on patronage-there were scams in recruitment for government posts, separatists were being bankrolled by many of those who had earlier run the government and there were only a few institutions where the rule of law prevailed. It was a sham democracy and the state was on the verge of collapse." ...... There was also deep concern over the growing radicalisation of the Kashmiri youth, especially after mosques and madrassas funded by more extreme sects had doubled in the past 15 years. ..... "The game in the past decade was an unethical compact between Delhi and the state that allowed the system to flourish as long as each got what they wanted. Delhi's approach was to manage Kashmir and ally with mainstream parties like the NC and PDP to run the government as long as they made the right noises about swearing allegiance to India. Never mind if only a few leaders and their families flourished, to the detriment of the state." ..... a five-pronged strategy: speed up development, hold panchayat elections, curb corruption, crack down on militants and prevent infiltration. ...... panchayat elections in October 2018 ..... unlike in the past, the sarpanches could disburse funds varying fromRs 50 lakh to Rs 1 crore each for local projects. While both the NC and PDP boycotted the elections, voter turnout in the Valley was a decent 40 per cent. What shook these parties after the elections was that people started flocking to the newly elected sarpanches for development assistance, bypassing the local MLAs who had so far held sway. ...... we eliminated close to 250 terrorists last year ...... went after prominent Kashmiri businessman Zahoor Ahmad Shah Watali and attached his property for allegedly being involved in terror financing and money-laundering for Hurriyat leaders...... a masterful legal strategy had been worked out in secret to dilute the provisions of Article 370 without having to get the state assembly's consent..... if there was an Afghan settlement, it would enable Pakistan to push all the Afghan radicals freed from civil strife towards the Indian border, as in the late '90s when the Taliban captured power in Afghanistan. ...... Top officials in J&K sensed something big was about to happen but were not sure exactly what. ...... In the past year, we mapped areas that needed more attention and forces, areas that were hard-core zones for stone-pelters and who the biggest trouble-makers were. ..... We also knew a communication lockdown would become necessary, which is why we equipped the entire police force with an alternative wireless system." ....... "Trying to pre-empt large-scale violence is not immoral; rather, it is the duty of a responsible government. There is inconvenience, but it is better than having body bags pile up if violence breaks out. The restrictions in place are quite sensitive to ground realities. As and when the situation improves, they will be eased." ....... All senior leaders of political parties were either put under house arrest or taken into custody and housed in hotels in the Valley or elsewhere in the state. All those listed as potential trouble-makers were also arrested. Meanwhile, the government cut off all telecommunications-landlines, cell phones and internet-ensuring a complete communication blackout. ...... Section 144 of the CrPC, which prohibits the assembly of five or more people in an area and also restricts carrying any sort of weapon, was imposed. ...... As also curfews, wherever necessary. The government claimed it had made provisions to keep hospitals running as well as ensure supply of food and other essentials. ...... NSA Doval spent 10 days in the state, chairing meetings on many occasions and also meeting people to fine-tune government strategy. ...... Among the big challenges is to ensure that the upcoming apple-plucking season, which is in September and October, is not disrupted. In Shopian, apple capital of the state, Sandeep Chaudhary, the superintendent of police, said that in his recent meeting with growers, rather than anger over Article 370, the bigger concern was to get the plucking and packing of apples going and have trucks move them out of the district for distribution and sale across the country. ..... the administration has announced that it will hold elections for block development councils in October. Along with panchayat leaders, these elections would throw up another rung of leadership invested in development. ...... 50,000 vacancies for government posts will be filled up soon ..... for the long term, the government is drawing up massive plans to build tourism infrastructure and develop Kashmir as an international destination that can compete with the best. ...... plans to set up sufficient processing and cold storage units for apples, peaches, pears as well as dry fruits to make the state an export hub. ...... a major investment summit it is planning in November gets the country's top industrialists to commit to setting up employment-generating projects in the state. ....... The Modi government is keen to bring in a whole new leadership from the grassroots while simultaneously correcting the institutional maladies that have afflicted the state in the past. This means the central government is in no hurry to restore statehood to J&K, and the process may take years. Having discredited the existing state leaders and their parties, the BJP would ideally like J&K to be ruled by a national party like itself rather than a regional satrap. ........ "After the abrogation of Article 370, all launch pads in PoK are full of terrorists and we have to thwart attempts to infiltrate practically every day. On the conventional front, Pakistan has made certain movement of forces of which we are aware and taking corrective action. If Pakistan indulges in any misadventure, I can assure you, it will get a befitting reply." Till winter sets in and makes crossing the border from the mountains difficult, the Indian armed forces have to be on their guard...... If Pakistan instigates a terror strike against India, it will further turn international opinion against it. ....... Pakistan can hardly complain. It has integrated PoK and the Northern Areas as two provinces leaving them with little independence to operate. ......

The only thing India should watch out for is violation of human rights, particularly if major violence breaks out in the state and the security forces use an iron fist to put it down.

In Jammu, which has a Hindu majority, there is already concern that those from Punjab will buy up their lands and dominate them. ..... Some now call for restrictions on land ownership as in Himachal.



Khan: Pakistan Will Stand With Kashmir Traffic around the country stopped for several minutes as the anthems of Pakistan and Kashmir were played on state media at noon....... India's Kashmir-related moves have prompted Khan to repeatedly describe the government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as fascist and supremacist. Khan has also compared the Modi government with Nazi Germany and has alleged that Modi's actions pose a threat to both Pakistan and religious minorities in India.
Kashmir situation contrary to Centre’s claims: Yechury The ground situation in Kashmir is “completely contrary” to what the Narendra Modi government has been saying, CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury said after returning from Srinagar where he met his ailing party colleague Yusuf Tarigami.

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