Friday, May 24, 2019

Two Out Of Three: Kamala, Andrew, Pete

Right now I am thinking two of these three might end up on the Democratic ticket next year. I don't know who. I don't know in what order. And, of course, I could be proven wrong. I think Andrew Yang is the most underestimated candidate right now for the only candidate with the real solution to the biggest problem at hand: the loss of jobs to automation. I think the winning candidate, whoever that is, will be the great synthesizer. Not the one who came up with the ideas, but the one who best synthesized them all. Who might that be? Kamala Harris' idea to fine companies that pay women less for the same work is on par with Andrew Yang's idea of the Universal Basic Income. I think it is about time. And, of course, the symbolism of an LGBTQ candidate is immense.

Medicare for All. Wealth tax. Wiping out student loans. Universal Basic Income. Fining companies for not paying women equally. These ideas might come from different candidates, but they can all be part of one platform.

President: Kamala Harris
Vice President: Andrew Yang
Secretary Of Urban Affairs: Pete Buttigieg





Buttigieg likens Trump to a 'crazy uncle' The South Bend mayor also accused of him of using a 'fake' injury to avoid Vietnam. ....... South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg on Thursday likened his approach to taking on President Donald Trump to dealing with a “crazy uncle.”..... “Like, he’s there. You’re not going to disrespect his humanity. But he thinks what he thinks. There’s not much you can do about it.” ...... “It’s actually getting harder and harder to find a policy of this administration that most Americans don’t disagree with,” he continued. “Which is exactly, of course, why they need it not to be about policy.” ...... he accused the president of racist behavior ...... said he thinks Trump is a racist...... he does and says racist things and gives cover to other racists ...... the president has also likened Buttigieg to Alfred E. Neuman, the gap-toothed, big-eared character on the cover of the humor magazine Mad.

Trump’s Walkout Hits a Wall Maybe Trump had success bullying real estate moguls and other businessmen and thinks the tactic will work in Washington, even after two years of experience show that it doesn’t. Maybe he flies off the handle and plays the tough guy because he likes it, thinking the White House stage as a version of The Apprentice. Trump has been strategically consistent in using anger to connect with his supporters during his presidency. ....... The sight of Trump baring his teeth like a wild macaque doesn’t seem to faze Pelosi and Schumer. Decades in Congress have inured them to this kind of political gnarling..... Tantrums don’t work very well in government as opposed to business, because there are so many more moving parts—separation of powers, political parties, scores of agencies, 50 states and 245 million eligible voters—than in Manhattan real estate....... Like his Niagara of lies, Trump’s hysterics are just another way of forcing people to live in his factually stunted, theatrical universe. As Pelosi and Schumer have shown, the spell is easily broken.

A week of Trump-fueled dysfunction leaves Congress gasping Pelosi, who earlier in the day said that the president had committed “impeachable offenses” and was in need of “an intervention” by family and friends....... Marc Short, chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence, was on TV Thursday morning to demand funding because “we think it is a crisis” at the border. ...... The Appropriations chief then put out a press statement just a few minutes later congratulating Trump for “breaking the gridlock.” Democrats find that sentiment puzzling: They blame Trump for the impasse to begin with

IRS could be forced to release Trump’s taxes in the heat of 2020 The administration is betting that it can drag out the coming case beyond next year’s elections. That could prove a bad strategy.



The 10 Democrats most likely to be the 2020 nominee, ranked

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Modi 2.0 And The 5G Question



Modi has earned himself another five years. One hopes there is not any other need for a shock therapy like demonetization. These five years are an opportunity to give India double-digit growth rates. 5G is fundamental to that equation. There is no way for India to avoid the Huawei question.

Modi's Second And Bigger Victory

Parroting the US position makes little sense. Instead, India should do its homework, in collaboration with others if necessary. Britain, France, and Germany are some powers that are eager to do their homework.

The bigger picture is privacy and security are major concerns with the internet in general. There are some policy solutions. Many solutions are technological and are in the future. Intelligence agencies do snoop in. That is true for all major powers. There is an urgent need to come together and create standards across emerging industries. That means countries coming together. That means the leading tech companies coming together.

When it comes to 5G equipment, looks like Huawei has hardware that is much better and much cheaper than its several rivals. The question being asked is, is it safe though? Britain, France, Germany, and India have enough expertise to be able to assess and answer that question. And if Huawei is not safe, are its rivals safe? Or do they offer the same vulnerabilities?

Right now 5G is the most critical infrastructure for India. It beats all else in importance. You roll out 5G and every city, town, village, and hamlet will have  become a "smart city." This has huge implications for commerce, for democracy, for the environment. It will become so much easier to measure air quality and water quality. It will decrease the pressure on the cities. Many more will be able to telecommute. It will most definitely give rise to new industries. A state like Bihar might give a million tutors to the world who all work from their homes in Bihar and teach kids around the world. Yoga teachers will similarly get global reach.

5G will take Modi's idea of "minimum government, maximum governance" to unprecedented heights. Much of the government will be online. There will remain very little need to visit government offices.

5G will revolutionize finance and access to credit for the poorest of the poor.

When hackers hack, they do so because you have internet access. It is absolutely possible for Huawei (or any other similar company) to create tiny "doors" for spy agencies. Just like it is absolutely possible for Microsoft to create little "doors" for the CIA in its Windows operating system. It is possible for Huawei competitors to do the same. It is possible for a company like Facebook to collect data on people and for some intelligence agency to create a bogus app that helps them vacuum that data. Facebook does not even have to actively cooperate.

All this does not take away from the promise of 5G. 5G will have 100 times greater impact than Indian Railways on the Indian economy. 5G is a train that you don't want to miss for too long. 5G is the ultimate Silk Road.

Privacy and security concerns must be addressed. But that requires countries and companies coming together and showing unprecedented levels of goodwill and cooperation.

The beauty of the 5G promise is, the Indian government does not have to spend a dime. All the action will be in the private sector. All you have to do is do your homework and approve.


Modi's Second And Bigger Victory
Trade War Endgame Scenarios: Look At Canada And North Korea For Hints
India And Reforms
New Twist In The Trade War: China Devalues Its Currency
5G And The Trade War
Huawei Founder Ren Zhengfei
A Truly Global Universal Basic Income
New Political And Economic Paradigms For The Age Of Abundance
The Inequality, The Climate Change


Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival
Towards A World Government
30-30-30-10: A More Thoughtful And Egalitarian Formula For Equity Distribution In Tech Startups For The Age Of Abundance
The Blockchain: Fundamental Like The Internet
The Character Called The Tech Entrepreneur



5G launch in India: Modi government to roll-out high-speed 5G telecom services by 2022 The South Asian nation, traditionally a laggard while embracing latest technology in telecommunications, will follow South Korea, Japan and China where 5G service will be offered within the next two years........ expects South Korea to launch these services by March 2019, Japan in late 2019 and China, along with most western major cities, in 2020......“India needs China to launch to drive economies of scale and lower cost 5G handsets. I think 2022 or later is appropriate for India” ..... So far, telecom infrastructure has got second place to physical infrastructure as Asian nation struggled to beef up its roads, ports and airports.
Trump Wants '5G' and 'Even 6G' Wireless Technology 'As Soon As Possible.' What's He Talking About? Autonomous vehicles could use 5G’s lower latency to respond quickly to changes in traffic and communicate with other connected equipment. And since 5G will be capable of helping low-power devices communicate with one another as coverage grows over the next decade, it could enable all sorts of new smart home tech, too...... The U.S. government is even pressuring allies to block Chinese-made 5G equipment, though some, like Germany, aren’t listening.
Narendra Modi government needs to focus on reviving sectoral health, deploy 5G: Industry
5G: Modi's next speed test "...accelerated deployment of next generation ubiquitous ultra-high broadband infrastructure with 100% coverage of 10 Gbps across urban India and 1 Gbps across rural India...". ...... 5G will enable electronic and mobile smart governance, remote health diagnosis, remote education, digital payments, Smart Cities, Smart Transportation, Internet of Things (IoT), Machine to Machine Communications (M2M), and smart devices enhanced by Artificial Intelligence (AI), such as driverless cars, smart houses, etc....... Airtel is set to deploy Massive Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO), a precursor of 5G, in Bengaluru and Kolkata. Nokia announced partnerships with both Bharti Airtel and Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL). Nokia also announced the establishment of a 5G IoT laboratory in Bengaluru. China's ZTE has initiated pre-5G trials with Airtel, Vodafone, and Reliance Jio........ A change in mindset is required in order to realise the potential benefits made possible by new broadband technologies and distributed computing networks, as well as by other technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Big Data, Cloud Computing, Virtual Reality, Augmented Reality, etc. ....... a HD movie takes 26 hours to download on 3G, six minutes on 4G, and only 5 seconds on 5G. ......... Suppose I am on an international flight when I get a brilliant brainwave for developing a new drug. My handset on the airplane should be able to quickly get me whatever research journals, medical databases, design, simulation and visualization tools I will need to immediately act on my brainwave. In fact, the network should "read my mind", quickly figure out by itself what resources and what information I need, and fetch them to my handset mid-air. ........ A major problem in developing such networks is that the software developers, system hardware engineers, radio and electromagnetic engineers, designers of integrated circuits, and semiconductor materials engineers do not understand each other and often work at cross-purposes. ........ These are all engineering challenges that require a multi-disciplinary approach, and the government's Rs 500 crore corpus should focus on creating such multi-disciplinary research teams at various Indian educational and research institutions.



Why Modi government wants India to go 5G in 2020 "We missed the opportunity to participate when the standards were being set for 3G and 4G, but don’t want to miss the 5G opportunity. Now when the standards are being set for 5G across the world, India will also participate in the process be successful in launching 5G by 2020." ..... the new standard — apart from just being faster than current generation 4G networks — will promise better latency and higher bandwidth, which will allow for a higher density of broadband users without slowing down the speed. ....The network will additionally also be optimised for Internet of Things (IoT) ...... The technological advancements of 5G will in part help the government make a renewed push for its "Digital India" initiative and cashless economy campaigns ..... The rollout of 5G technology will also make the government a lot of money from the auctioning of spectrum needed for newer technology. ...... Even though India was more than 10 years late in adopting 3G technology and lagged behind in adoption of 4G standards too, the government's plan of bringing the 5G network platform to the masses — rivaling the rollout in developed economies in Europe and America — is highly ambitious, but certainly achievable. ..... Airtel has announced that, initially, it will implement the new technology in Bangalore and Kolkata, and later expand to other parts of the country......Jio, which is based on an all-IP network and can be easily upgraded to 5G and beyond, has already announced that it will move to 5G standards shortly after the rollout.
Japan and India pledge cooperation on AI and 5G "No two nations have as much potential together as Japan and India," Abe said at the beginning of his meeting with Modi at the prime minister's office in Tokyo..... The two nations plan to conduct joint research on artificial intelligence. ....... The National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, one of Japan's largest public research institutions, and the Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad will jointly develop AI technology and begin research in the robotics field....... Japanese and Indian technology companies sense an opening as the U.S. and Australia restrict Chinese players like Huawei Technologies from supplying 5G equipment. A hundred times faster than current technology, 5G will form the communications infrastructure for the "internet of things" and self-driving cars........ The Japanese leader has told aides privately that he feels comfortable discussing global events, and not just bilateral issues, with the Indian leader...... His fondness for Modi was evident in a Facebook post on Monday. "I invited Prime Minister Modi to my vacation home, where just the two of us enjoyed a private dinner together," the Japanese prime minister wrote. "In that relaxed atmosphere, we talked frankly with each other about various topics. I want to continue to walk firmly hand in hand with Prime Minister Modi, aiming at bringing about a free and open Indo-Pacific." ....... The two countries will also collaborate on infrastructure, such as port and road projects in third countries like Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh. The Japanese government will assist with development in Northeast India as well.
India and Japan seal $75bn currency swap deal India and Japan on Monday inked a $75 billion bilateral currency swap agreement which should bring greater stability to foreign exchange and capital markets in Asia's third largest economy...... Japan and India had a currency swap agreement of up to $50 billion that had expired. The Indian rupee has tumbled 15% against the dollar since January amid the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. The new swap deal will guarantee a buyer for the rupee that will help to stem a fall in value in case of a currency crisis...... "The importance of [the] swap agreement is that India can borrow U.S. dollars from Japan and give it Indian rupees of the borrowed amount to stabilize its currency," said Shamshad Ahmad Khan, a visiting associate fellow at the Institute of Chinese Studies in New Delhi. "This is very important considering the timing when [the] Indian rupee is depreciating."........ Modi said the leaders had agreed on a "two-plus-two" dialogue between their foreign ministers and defense ministers, with the aim of working toward encouraging world peace and stability. ....... the strategy requires greater synergy between the two countries' defense and foreign ministries." ...... Modi also pointed out that Japanese investors, during his visit, have committed $2.5 billion to India, which would create employment for 30,000 people. "We will strengthen our partnership in every sphere, including digital, cyberspace, health, defense, oceans and space." ..... They also exchanged notes about a loan agreement for the ambitious 1.1 trillion rupee ($15 billion) Mumbai-Ahmedabad high speed rail, the construction of which started last year. Japan is funding over 80% of the project.

Photo via Ajay Bhagat




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Thursday, May 23, 2019

Modi's Second And Bigger Victory






No matter which way you look at it, it is just plain remarkable. Modi has managed to take his tally to almost 350. I have a feeling, by 2024, that tally might inch towards 400. The Congress Party needed a sympathy wave in 1984 to be in that 400 range. Modi is depending on his work, his organization, the electorate's intelligence.

India 2019: Looks Like A TsuNAMO

The terror attack in Kashmir and the Indian response to go deep inside Pakistani territory to wipe out a camp of terrorists sure played a role. That created a sympathy wave. But that was the icing on the cake. This dude has been doing the work.

He is a risktaker. 2014-2019 was the hard part. The next phase is not necessarily easier. But I would argue it is relatively easier. He does not need to give the Indian economy another shock therapy like demonetization.

Modi is an excellent communicator. He has a full agenda. I think he would be smart to co-opt Rahul Gandhi's Universal Basic Income idea for the bottom 20% and make his own. It is a sound idea. Automation will only accelerate. That has to be allowed. The productivity gains have to pay in the form of Value Added Tax. And that VAT has to fund the UBI.

Indira Gandhi nationalized the banks. Indian banks are state-owned. In that way India is China. But when you have as much corruption as there has been in India, and for such a long time, you end up with a huge pileup of non-performing loans, which drags down the economy's prospects. Some clean-up has been done. Much more remains to be done. Funneling credit to the small and medium enterprises, and the mom and pop stores, that are the dynamo of the economy is where job creation is. That has to be a top priority.

Sometime in the next few years, Modi has to take India to double-digit growth rates. That is the only way it can someday catch up to China. China growing at 5-6% and India growing at 10-11% is how. At this stage, 5-6% is excellent for China. But India can only truly reap its demographic dividend by growing at double-digit growth rates.

India is such a vast and diverse country. And it is a vibrant democracy. Everybody has an opinion. When Indians go grocery shopping, they haggle. It is free speech in action. To take major steps of reform while also dancing to the tunes of the electoral rhythms is a challenge. Modi is excellent at it. He is gifted. He is hard working. (The guy does not sleep.)

Overall I am optimistic that Modi will keep delivering. But the political path is bound to be full of surprises.

Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), India is projected to have become a larger economy than the US by 2030. It is befitting that that happens on Modi's watch. That is the projection. Modi has the option to accelerate it. The projection puts India at number two, and China at number one.

Chandrababu Naidu's move a few years ago to walk out of the NDA, in hindsight, looks like was a bad move. He has been wiped out, in his own state, and at the national level. One worries for the city of Amaravati.

West Bengal will fall. It will fall into the BJP's lap. That is the trend.

Modi basically repeated his 2014 performance in the Hindi heartland. That is quite a statement.

The BJP is the largest political party in the world.








Make in India should be aligned with a revamped Foreign Trade Policy to capture export market share amid ongoing dislocations in production base on the back of geopolitical uncertainty like trade wars and Brexit

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