Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Biden's Lead Is Name Recognition

Biden announced and quickly shot to the top. I believe his lead is name recognition. It is called being on national television for eight long years. I expect the lead to quickly come down after a few debates. He might still be among the top five for a few months. But Iowa and New Hampshire might winnow him out. In short, I don't expect Biden to become the nominee.

2020 is the year of the Social Democrat. The New Democrat had two and a half decades. That run is over. There is no middle of the road way to tackle climate change. There is no middle of the road method to tackle health care for all.

But the Social Democrat will only offer a losing proposition if he/she does not make it absolutely clear they expect tech entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship, in general, to play a central role in the biggest problems today. In fact, their very positions on health and education have to be sold in market terms. They are investments in human capital. They are about putting human capital front and center.

I have no idea who will be the nominee. It is a good thing there are many good names in the fray. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are the two seniors. They have done much to shift the spectrum of political choices. Bernie is good at emphasizing a few key points. Whereas Warren keeps churning out policy paper after policy paper like the professor she is.

Kamala Harris has great symbolism. She is surprisingly skillful. Her cheerfulness masks her pragmatism. She has taken clear positions. So many women are running. This might be the first election when a woman running is not news. I hope this is the new normal.

Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg are the two truly fresh faces. They are the wonks. Andrew Yang is famous for his Universal Basic Income idea, but his website is full of ideas on every possible policy topic. There is a part of me that even wants the two on a ticket.

I see Beto running for Texas Governor and finally flipping that state.

The US And The Chinese Economies Are Super Well-Connected

The US and the Chinese economies are super well-connected. It costs less to send a package from Shanghai to Los Angeles, than it does to send it from Los Angeles to any other destination in the US, no matter how close. China is not some distant country.

Not only are the US and Chinese economies super well-connected, but the two are also super well-connected to the rest of the world. If the two escalate this trade war, the global economy itself suffers. Every country will be impacted to various degrees.

The US and the Chinese economies are not only super well-connected at the level of consumption. That is there. But that is only the surface of it. China exports raw material to the US that the Chinese manufacturers use to produce and export to China which some Chinese producers use to build even more complex goods which they then export to the US, among other places.

That is why when the trade war started, the Trump administration started jacking up the tariffs, first on some imports, then on more, then larger tariffs on even more imports. That gradual increase might have been as much in consideration of the trade talks as to test the resilience of the US economy itself. China, of course, retaliated in kind. But so far it has been theatrics. Soon the trade war is about to hit the average consumer in the US in the form of higher prices. People who by and large did not much gain from the Trump tax cuts are about to start paying more at their local stores. This is going to be widespread. The trade war is no longer some remote thing impacting farmers in Iowa.

But then there is Huawei. The US intends to hurt Chinese companies like Huawei. Ends up Huawei imports things like computer chips from some American companies. But then also ends up China is the source of something like 90% of the supply of rare earth metals that are do or die for the high tech industries. The US might block the chips. China might block those rare earth metals. You are looking at constipation scenarios in the global supply chains.

But then China has been the hub of low tech industries. It produces goods that go to the Walmarts of the world where the working class, the lower middle class, the middle class go shopping. Ends up those working class, the lower middle class, the middle class are by now emergent classes in most parts of the world.

The US is not about to get back its lost manufacturing base. But it is already seeing the industries of tomorrow all over the horizon. It is automation, not China. China is also losing manufacturing jobs to automation.   

Yes, free speech is an issue. Yes, mass surveillance is an issue. Yes, freedom of religion is an issue. But white supremacy is also an issue. At some level, the trade war is white supremacist thinking taken from the Mexican border to the ports of China.

The FBI is on public record having asked Facebook and Apple for information on individuals. One thing Wikileaks revealed is the US spied on the German Chancellor. I don't doubt the US and Chinese intelligence agencies do their best to snoop in.

Cybersecurity is a major issue. But it is for the tech companies of the world to come together and set standards. It is for the governments of the world to make the policy moves.

5G is going to be a game changer. Too bad the two leading economies cannot get their act together.



Trade War Endgame Scenarios
US China Trade War: A Meeting Of The Hot And Cold Fronts
New Twist In The Trade War: China Devalues Its Currency

Trade War Endgame Scenarios






Looks like the two sides have been talking past each other in the so-called trade talks. Each side has been stating its positions, again and again, basically repeating what they said earlier. Another round of talks might not ameliorate that situation. But by now the fallouts have become serious for the two economies. Widespread damage will soon be seen. Those on the US side will be much more visible.

Donald Trump thinks he is this amazing dealmaker. That is his whole thing. You create a crisis where there was none. Then you negotiate and try and get a better deal. Well, if that is the script, does it work? There are liars, and there are bullshitters. A liar knows he is lying. A bullshitter doesn't. It is hard to negotiate with a bullshitter.

Do I buy that he is doing this for the cause of democracy? Look at the track record. He is the biggest fan of dictators around the world. He loves that dude in the Phillippines, an elected dictator. The guy is a white supremacist. He is not a democrat. He has fascist tendencies. He talks about "the press," the way presidents in the US never did before him. He wants his supporters to get physical. Donald Trump Brown Shirts.

No, I don't believe this trade war is about democracy.

I fear the US economy is going to end up like one of his casinos. Worse, the contagion might be global. Donald Trump is America's Brexit. British hubris decided to take the plunge where British interests might not have.

These trade wars are casino wars. Trump's "negotiations" with the North Korean dude should work as a warning sign. We all know how unprepared Trump was for that. He came back saying he was so charming North Korea agreed to denuclearize. Not true. The Bullshitter-In-Chief did what he does best: he bullshitted. Only now he is talking to China. China finds itself negotiating with vapor.

A fascist fantasizes for a Great Depression.

A trade war has two losing sides. So, of course, China will lose.



US China Trade War: A Meeting Of The Hot And Cold Fronts
New Twist In The Trade War: China Devalues Its Currency
5G And The Trade War
The US China Trade War Escalation Is Primarily Political
The US China Tension: Creative Or Destructive?

Huawei is said to have been stockpiling US components for months in preparation for such a situation and even has an alternative operating system on the shelf.