Tuesday, May 21, 2019

India And Reforms



When Indira Gandhi nationalized banks across India, she called it reforms. When Ronald Reagan orchestrated large scale privatizations across sectors of the US economy, he called it reforms. I guess you want to be seen reforming.

In Germany, they have this concept of lifelong employment. You go to work for a company early in your life, and you stay with that company for much of your working life. And Germany is a top performing economy. It beats the US economy by a wider margin than does the Chinese economy.

There are people who argue for US-style hire and fire policies in India. They call it labor reform. That hire and fire can work. But in India, for many people, or maybe most, if you get fired, you face a certain financial cliff. You might not be able to go grocery shopping in a week. In such a scenario hire and fire might be a catastrophe.

In Japan also they have this concept of lifelong employment. I am not arguing for it. All I am saying is there is no magic pill. Too many people argue if only India were to put in place easy hire and fire, the economy would rocket past the Chinese economy. Not true. Stop looking for magic pills.

A great Indian example was Indian Railways when Laloo Yadav was Railway Minister. Indian Railways is state owned. It is the largest employer in the world. And rule number one for Laloo was, do not fire anyone as we attempt to increase our revenues and profits. Rule number two was, do not raise railway ticket prices. Because "I am a man of the people." Within those two parameters, Laloo managed to usher bumper profits. He managed to slash prices on railway tickets.

So it is not true state-owned companies are always a bad idea. When Modi was Chief Minister of Gujrat he did not nationalize a single state-owned company in his state. Instead, he granted each of them autonomy. The major thing he did was he brought political interference to a halt. They all became profitable.

State-owned companies can work. Private companies can work. Collect data. Assess data. Engage in evidence-based decision making. Do not blindly follow this or that ideology. The proof has to be in the pudding.

When Laloo took over Indian Railways that was in the red, the number one piece of advice was, fire a bunch of people. If you want to turn a profit, fire a bunch of people. Indian Railways is "bloated," he was told. But Laloo knew better. I can not fire people, Laloo said. "I am a man of the people."

He turned Indian Railways around.

Another buzz phrase is land reform. Basically, the idea is it should be much easier for industrialists to buy land. Maybe the idea does not work in India. You are mostly talking about small farmers. That small piece of land is their entire world. They depend on it for their basic food. It is not that they are against industrialization, but what will they eat the day after?

Land pooling is a better idea. You turn those landowners into shareholders in your proposed company. Why will you not look at alternate ideas like these? Chandrababu Naidu successfully implemented that idea as he started work on his dream city Amaravati. And the farmers who participated are happy. Akhilesh Yadav used something similar as he acquired land for the Delhi Lucknow expressway.

The very phrase land acquisition is problematic. It sounds like robbery. Land pooling is a friendlier phrase.






Monday, May 20, 2019

US China Trade War: A Meeting Of The Hot And Cold Fronts

At some level, it feels like the current US-China trade war was inevitable. It would have happened no matter who had been president. It is as if a hot front and a cold front that were moving towards each other finally met. It has been a tectonic shift perhaps, and not the whim of a whimsical president.

Donald Trump ran for president as a white supremacist. A white supremacist is not attempting to be fair. He is attempting to establish or retain supremacy, or hegemony. The migrant on the Mexican border might not have the power. But China is a similar size economy. White supremacist thinking, meet China!

It is true the US has lost a big chunk of its manufacturing base. But then there was a time when the US also lost a large chunk of its agricultural jobs. Absent sound analysis and a vision for a transition, the blame game fills the vacuum. China did it! Something fundamental is happening. The solution lies along the lines of what Andrew Yang and Bernie Sanders are suggesting. You have to give everyone a Universal Basic Income. Because, if anything, automation is about to accelerate. Retraining is not going to do it. You have to make health care universal. You have to invest in human capital. But all this is Spanish to Donald Trump. He started by blaming Mexican immigrants and ended up at China. Well, looks like China is no pushover.

If the US is running trade deficits not only with China but also Germany, maybe one has to point out that Germany is a democracy like the US, it is a market economy like the US. What's going on? The US trade deficit with Germany is wider.

Almost 160 million people from outside visited China last year. And over 120 million Chinese went abroad and chose to come back. That proves China is not North Korea. On the other hand, obviously, China lacks free speech. They say you are free to speak your mind on most things, just don't challenge the political monopoly of the Chinese Communist Party.

Every surveillance opportunity modern technology throws in the air, the Chinese police jumps at it. There is no counterbalancing force to question that tendency.

There are reports that close to a million ethnic Muslims in the west of China might have been detained for "retraining" purposes. These are likely not vocational training camps. At vocational training camps, you are free to move in and out. China goes unchallenged when it does something like that. Challenging China on trade is perhaps an indirect way of challenging China on the ethnic Muslims. At some point it was inevitable it was going to happen.

The South China Sea is a sore spot. That is where China's exports and imports pass through. And so it is understandable China is paranoid about the South China Sea. But that is why you cooperate on freedom of navigation. But China talks like the South China Sea were a Chinese province. Talk about clashing worldviews. This tension could have been contained in the South China Sea for only so long. At some point, it was going to spill over into something like trade. And now we have it.

And it is also just competition. The two leading economies are competing. Instead of killing the World Trade Organization, they could help reimagine it. Trump's white supremacist fantasy to bark at China to scare the smaller trade partners into submission is not healthy for world trade. And he might not even be around in 2021. The word is, winter is coming. The US is expected to see a recession by 2020. Recessions are not known for reelections.

New Twist In The Trade War: China Devalues Its Currency


Sunday, May 19, 2019

India 2019: Exit Polls



Most exit polls show Modi coming back as Prime Minister.



Modi Expects More Than 300 Seats
My Projection Puts Modi At 300-350