Friday, May 10, 2019

Could Arithmetic Force Modi And Rahul To Team Up?

What the final tally will be is anybody's guess right now, but let's say this is how it rolls: "...the post-poll scenario will be dictated by regional parties that will climb back to the pre-2014 situation with 223-225 seats.......my estimate is that BJP’s tally will be around 170-180, down from 282 in 2014 and Congress’ may rise to 140-150, which will be phenomenal from 44 in 2014 ..... "

 BJP and allies: 170-180
Congress and allies: 140-150.
Federal Front: 200-220

Most people might suggest this means the Federal Front will get the Prime Minister with outside support from the Congress. But then no regional party might get more than 30 MPs.

Another option would be for the BJP and the Congress to come together with Modi as Prime Minister and Rahul Gandhi as Deputy Prime Minister. That might be a more stable government. In a democracy, you respect the people's verdict. Modi has made remarkable progress on issues like ease of doing business and infrastructure, whereas Rahul Gandhi has come up with the wonderful idea of a Universal Basic Income for the bottom 20% of the people. Country above party, as both like to say.




at No comments:
Labels: , , , , , , ,

The US China Tension: Creative Or Destructive?

The US-China trade war is more political than economic. Economic theory is largely pro-trade. But considering military tussle is not an option, the two powers are engaged in a trade war to score the many political points.

The US saw a declared socialist Bernie Sanders emerge a serious candidate for president in 2016, and he is running again. This is a new development. Socialism used to be a clearly dirty word in US politics.

Most US manufacturing jobs have been lost to automation, not China or Mexico, and that is set to accelerate, also inside China. That is an argument for abundance economics policies like Universal Basic Income and massive investments in human capital, namely education, and health.

The trade tussle might be more to do with the fact that China is now neck and neck to the size of the US economy. It might be a prestige issue.

If the Chinese economy opens up more as a result, that would be a good thing. But the more likely effect could come in the form of a global recession if there are miscalculations and the trade war goes full-fledged.

The chances of a full-fledged trade war are low. The US and Chinese economies might more or less stay on their projected paths. The real question is, where will the US economy stand in 2020, and what would that mean for Trump politically? The US economy is projected to hit a recession this year or the next with or without the trade war.

China is not projected to replace the US as the number one power in the world. Numerous powers are projected to emerge in various parts of the world.


at No comments:
Labels: , ,

India 2019: The Scenario Of A Federal Front Lead



Fasten your seat belts on D-Street: Major horse trading ahead post May 23 As per my assessment, the post-poll scenario will be dictated by regional parties. ...... the post-poll scenario will be dictated by regional parties that will climb back to the pre-2014 situation with 223-225 seats. Regional parties belonging to the NDA will likely see a downdraft from 54 to 25-30 seats along with the declining vote and seat share of the BJP. ...... my estimate is that BJP’s tally will be around 170-180, down from 282 in 2014 and Congress’ may rise to 140-150, which will be phenomenal from 44 in 2014. At these levels, the Congress could be back to its 2004 tally of 145 when UPA-1 government came to power after overturning the ‘India Shining’ narrative of the Vajpayee-led NDA government. Hence, the NDA score could be around 210 seats, down from 336 in 2014 ....... a sub-200 tally for the BJP is a realistic projection, in my view, and this will restrict the NDA tally to around 200-220.
at No comments:
Labels: , ,
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)