Monday, January 07, 2019

The Geometry Of The Green Deal




The term Green New Deal might have a long tail, but the credit of finally putting it on the political map goes to AOC. She is politically gifted. No doubt this honeymoon period will come to an end, and she will face her eventual backlash. But she is no flash in the pan. She is potential presidential material.

It is Green Deal or bust. Climate change is for real. The consequences of not doing anything are dire. There is a cliff ahead. There is a point of no return. Global warming is not just all is same, it is just a little bit warmer. Wouldn't that be nice? Global warming is meteorological chaos. It is the monsoon deciding to leave the Indian subcontinent and popping up at some random landmass every year. Agriculture as we know it requires predictable weather. Global warming in its extreme messes up the predictability.

It's not AOC. It's the planet. The planet needs it. Bad.

The Civil War made Lincoln. The Great Depression and World War II made FDR. Global Warming will make AOC.

The 13 figures that get thrown into any talk of a Green Deal are surprisingly good economics. Post Green Deal America will see prosperity that will make the 2018 prosperity feel like America had been Haiti.

And it will be just prosperity. If you think about it, Social Security was outlandish considering it was preceded by, well, nothing like it. The post-Green Deal similarly will have a floor for all called the Universal Basic Income.

People go wow about the Internet. There are 10 Internet size technologies right around the corner. If you do the Green Deal right, you take the world into an Age Of Abundance. The productivity gains projected by the technologies right round the corner will make the idea of a Universal Basic Income as a matter of fact as minimum wage is today. Can't do without it. The wheels of the economy will not budge without it.

The projected gains in clean energy efficiencies over the coming decade are such that dirty energy sources stand no chance. But the political arm has to do its part. That's where the Green Deal comes in.

The America of tomorrow is young and browning. AOC represents that America.

The worst possible thing AOC could do politically is to try to climb the ladders of the US House. She needs to go national, and possibly global, digitally. And this is not just about having more Twitter and Instagram followers, impressive as her numbers are. This is about an actual organization, only it is primarily digital. It will have donors, it will have local chapters, it will self-elect its local leaders, it will host house parties. It will crowdcraft the writing of the actual legislation. And, no, it's not mobocracy. The academics who have done their work will get their say.

That way even if it is a Warren-Harris White House in 2020, the Green Deal still goes through, and AOC still plays the decisive role, and perhaps she gets to do Green Deal 2.0 when she gets into the White House in 2028. Just like Obamacare is in dire need of a 2.0 because 1.0 still left too many uninsured.










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Saturday, January 05, 2019

The US Political Gridlock Can Be Fixed

The narrative often peddled is that Americans have in recent times become bad people. They just no longer see eye to eye. The country is so divided. That may well be.

But there is a more concrete reason for the gridlock. And there are concrete solutions available. Fix the political structure.

Fix the Senate. California deserves 12 Senators. The arguments are compelling. Fix the House. Bring the gerrymandering to an end. It is the people who should elect their representatives, not the other way round. Fix the presidency. Let the president be directly elected.


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Tuesday, January 01, 2019

Elizabeth Warren Has To Present Her Big Policies In Market Terms



My 30-30-30-10 formula, to be clear, has not been inspired by Senator Warren. It has been formulated after years of studying tech startups. For me, the tech sector and the public policy sectors have flowed parallel to each other. I have seen many intersection points over the years.

Much of what Senator Warren is saying just makes market sense to me.

A lot of people make the mistake of thinking capital means financial capital. Well, that is about one third of it, the other two pieces of the pie are human capital and technology. It can be argued financial capital is the least important of the three. By now technology outweighs the others. We are about to see tremendous rises in productivity. To the point Universal Basic Income will be forced upon us if we do not ourselves embrace it.

Some of what Senator Warren is proposing can be tweaked, of course. For example, why 40%? Why should labor get 40% of the vote on a Board? Why so rigid a number? It can not be a rigid number. It has to be the principle of meaningful representation. A rigid number is also harder sailing politically.

Most of what Senator Warren is proposing should be presented as market solutions to current problems.

For example, it is unconscionable that while America was experiencing a near Great Depression close to two trillion dollars were simply idling in the banks. The super rich were going to simply sit it out.

Breaking monopolies are about getting rid of distortions in the market so innovation can happen. It is pro-market.

Human capital has to be given its rightful place in capitalism. That is where universal education, mostly free, and lifelong, and universal health care, come into play, as well as Board representation for labor.

Formulating bold policy is not enough. It also has to be sold. It is not about fighting the good fight and going down in flames. It is about starting bold and being strategic and tactical along the way to ultimately make it happen, with the perfect not being allowed to be the enemy of the very good.

Senator Warren should not be a Knight In Shining Armor who has already thought it through. She should lay out broad outlines and then crowdsource the details. Deep engagement of the people in the process is as important as the outcome itself. The conversation has to be broad.

Not only a new policy but a new political culture itself has to be attempted. And, yes, you also have got to listen to the conservatives. They often times make fiscal sense when the far left can feel like a fiscal policy on a forest fire. In the new political culture, people owe each other face to face decent conversations where the listening is as if not more important than speaking. Decency has to be brought back into fashion.

Also, I want a two women ticket. Men have been occupying the mantle for like ever. How about always? Let's have some fresh air. Warren and Harris might attempt a East Coast West Coast thing. People like Beto and Gillum can have spots in the cabinet. Why not?

“If I could characterize Warren’s ideology, it’s that we should select the tool appropriate to each economic problem we face and not decide ahead of time that the same solution is appropriate,” said Marshall Steinbaum, a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, a left-leaning think tank. ........ “Today, in market after market, competition is dying as a handful of giant companies gain more and more market share.” ........ Warren unveiled a housing bill that would aim to reward local governments for relaxing strict zoning laws that have prevented developers from expanding the supply of housing. The plan also calls for investing billions more in government spending in affordable-housing projects, as well as helping black families historically hurt by federal housing practices. ....... a bill that would create a permanent law enforcement unit to investigate crimes at banks and large financial institutions, ending what she has called “too big to jail.” The law would also require senior executives at banks with more than $10 billion in assets to annually certify they have “found no criminal conduct or civil fraud within the financial institution.” ......a bill requiring a national $15-an-hour minimum wage, as well as a plan that would make it easier for workers to form and join unions.
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