Rudy had a strategy. He was going to ignore the early states, and then he was going to win big in Florida, and then who could possibly stop Rudy?
We all know how that played out.
Now Hillary has a strategy. It is called the calendar has only 11 months to it. She is going to ignore the states this month.
Polls show her leading in OH, TX, PA. But then she was doing 10-50 or so in California and similary in New York for most of 2007. The end tally had Obama losing CA only by 10 points.
How can you lose 10 states in a row and still carry March 4? Beats me. Not gonna happen.
The superdelegates, if they are in the business of democracy, are just going to do the will of the people and get behind the candidate who won the most votes, the most states, and the most regular delegates. They can't go against that democratic current.
Sexist Bill
A few days back Bill Clinton went on record saying if Hillary is president he will "talk her through everything." Granted this guy is super gifted politically, but that is sexist talk. There are all these women all across America, and especially in California, who are salivating at the prospect of a first woman president, and Bill Clinton is saying he will do her job on her behalf. Women, take notice, this man is out to steal.
All States Count
At some level I am glad this has been such a drawn out process. That is the democratic way. This year most states will have had a say. And that will make us strong for the fall contest.
Michigan, Florida, Nevada
The white media routinely says the Clintons won Michigan, Florida and Nevada. Barack won Nevada. This is a contest for delegates, and Barack won more delegates in Nevada. And there were no contests in Michigan and Florida.
The white media has made a leap from calling Barack Osama last spring. This spring they are giving victories to his opponent that she can not claim.
Looks like we only carried Cornell, Ithaca. Otherwise Hillary carried the rest of the state. Fair enough. We did better in Illinois. I was thinking we might have done well in parts of the city.
I don't begrudge Hillary her home state success.
In The News
McCain and Obama Turn Fire on Each Other New York Times ANALYSIS-Seeds of class war sprout in Kenya's crisis Reuters Surging Obama whacks Clinton, McCain on economyAFP Clinton intensifies her attacks on new front-runner Obama Los Angeles Times A day after she lost her status as front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination ...... eight consecutive wins over Clinton ..... next Tuesday's contests in Wisconsin and Hawaii. ..... Texas, which holds its primary on March 4, along with Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. ..... "It's a Washington where politicians like John McCain and Hillary Clinton voted for a war in Iraq that should've never been authorized and never been waged -- a war that is costing us thousands of precious lives and billions of dollars a week" that could be used on infrastructure, job training and healthcare. ....... "After March 4th, over 3,000 delegates will be committed, and we project that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be virtually tied with 611 delegates still to be chosen in Pennsylvania and other remaining states," Penn said. Clinton works to make stands against Obama in Texas, OhioCNN Obama leading Clinton 45-41 ..... Virginia, Obama earned 64 percent of the vote compared with 35 percent for Clinton .... Maryland, the Illinois Democrat won 60 percent to 37 percent ..... District of Columbia, he won 75 percent to 24 percent ........ Obama for the first time has a lead over Clinton in the delegate count -- 1,253 to 1,211 ...... He did well with Democrats across race and gender lines Tuesday night, and seems to be eating away at Clinton's backbone of support: women. Clinton gropes for swift game-changer Inquirer.net has lost her once-gaping national poll leads, and seems at a significant financial disadvantage. ...... Wisconsin, which holds its primary Tuesday, had Obama up 11 points, suggesting, that, along with his former home state of Hawaii, he could roll off a 10-0 streak before March 4. ...... lead the total of pledged delegates by 136. ..... "The only way she could do it is by winning the rest of the contests by 25 to 30 points. We see not a single contest on the calendar left where we would expect her to win those kinds of margins." ...... The former first lady currently leads that block 242 to 156 ..... sparking comparisons with Republican Rudolph Giuliani's disastrous strategy. ..... whether the double-digit Clinton advantage in Ohio and Texas, and another potential firewall in Pennsylvania on April 22, might simply rupture under Obama's surge. Clinton struggles to convince party she's still in itGuardian Unlimited David Wilhelm, who managed her husband's 1992 campaign for the White House endorsed her opponent. ..... as Obama began to peel away sections of Clinton's supporting coalition among working-class households, women, Catholics and older voters, to win primaries in Virginia, Maryland and Washington DC by overwhelming margins ...... "Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification for who can win the general election," he told a conference call with reporters. ..... Clinton's hopes of turning the contest around with big wins in the mega states of Texas and Ohio on March 4 might not work ..... Obama has embraced the role of Democratic frontrunner as the contest moves towards a decisive phase. ..... He won Virginia, 64% to 35%, Maryland 60% to 36%, and Washington DC by 75% to 24%. That now gives Obama 1,224 delegates against 1,198 for Clinton .... he made significant inroads into her core areas of support: working-class households, women, Catholics and older voters. Clinton Scrambles to Contest Wisconsin The Associated Press Clinton, Obama press ahead USA Today Obama Camp Claims Potomac Sweep Is Turning Point of CampaignFOXNews Tuesday night’s Potomac Primary was Gettysburg. ...... it is now “next to impossible” for Clinton to close Obama’s lead in pledged delegates. ...... nearly 500 delegates at stake in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania ....... she’ll be giving a concession speech after March 4. .... Obama eating into Clinton’s traditionally loyal bases of women, senior, Hispanic and white voters. ...... Obama, already claiming that he is the candidate of a “new American majority” ...... create 5 million so-called “green collar” jobs Open Caucus: Obama’s Winning StreakNew York Times Exclusive Interview: Obama Reaches Out to Critics and Republicans U.S. News & World Report Clinton strategists admit she needs to win Ohio and Texas on March 4 to remain in contention Obama overtakes Clinton in delegate tallyXinhua Her deputy campaign manager Mike Henry announced his departure Tuesday, a day after Maggie Williams replaced Patti Solis Doyle as her campaign manager. Henry was the campaign's main field architect and was best known for penning a memo last spring urging Clinton not to compete in Iowa, the first state to hold nomination contest. If Hillary Loses, Do Women Lose?U.S. News & World Report It's Obama's to lose now. The race is as good as over. The Obama Phenom is gaining velocity and surge. ....... Young women have rushed to latch on to Obama's comet coattails. A friend of mine who's fundraising mightily for him says "Obama is a woman" because he's more pro-choice than Clinton. After all, on that most stereotypical of women's issues, She loses progressives as she attempts to navigate the nonexistent common ground on this most divisive of issues. Obama, on the other hand, talks about Clinton refers to the "tragedy of abortion."the tragedy of unwanted pregnancies. In what seems to be the sunset of the era of the religious right, that's quite the courageous stand to take. ...... "I want a woman in the White House, but she's the wrong woman." ...... The nominee will either be a woman with double-X chromosomes or one with XY chromosomes who votes more like a woman than most with XX. Clinton Scrambles to Contest Wisconsin The Associated Press
They are for real. But then you are not exactly trying to get along with everybody. You are going to get close to a select few, by definition.
And then there is 2.0 group dynamics to do with a startup. The workspace is fundamentally altered. And so offline socializing is guided by chemistry as it should.
Digital Democrat
Don't sit on any committee. Don't take any official title. Show up for events. Capture some on camera. Get to know people. Help boost morale. But primarily just look at the big picture for the overall campaign.
The word blogger does not describe me. The term digital democrat does. You still have to know what you are talking about. But a blog can travel across space and time. You get transported. It is like you get to sit on many committees at once.
Ultimately it is not about the digital tools. It is about the candidate. It is about the message. It is about the campaign.
I am here just to experience the event attitude I have had with the political organizations in the city. Finally in Obama 08 I found the operation I had been looking for. My specialty is presidential level politics.
The idea has been to suggest grand strategy.
But even Obama 08 has been a vehicle to hone further the progressive agenda, the progressive message.
Three Very Different Worlds
Nepal.
Obama 2008.
Tech startup.
The group dynamics involved with each is so different. Can get your head spinning as you move from one to the next. But you are who you are. If someone can relate to only a small part of you, that is a limited relationship.
Caputo
It amazes me that now when I am no longer tense about Obama 08 like I was until February 5, Caputo has taken some of that place. And this worries me. Is this obsession unhealthy?
Maybe she is like me, she will never run for anything, but will always be just so obsessed by politics, friendship prized by top office holders. Of all the people I got to know making the rounds in the city since I moved in, she stands out. She is an extraordinary political talent.
She got offended I googled her up once. Whereas in the Silicon Valley, that is the culture. You google people up.
If nothing else, I'd love to have her on my corporate executive committee. But that can't happen this year. This year goes to my team in Mumbai.
Meeting for the first time was magic. But then the few times she has acted personal after that, she has always made it a point to make sure she is not the one who signs you into an event. Because if she does, then she acts "professional." Having never held a corporate job, I don't get it. For me it is like, of course you are not obliged, you don't owe me anything, let alone a feeling, but it is not possible for you to like me today, and not have liked me yesterday, or to not like me tomorrow. How do you feel about me? And whose responsibility is it to share that feeling?
For me that song and dance between the professional hat and the personal hat feels like an unwelcome rollercoaster ride. It is not about feelings. It is about a conversation about the external reality.
Feelings grow over time. Love grows. Hillary wrote an article as First Lady saying "we love each other more now than when we started."
At some level I have rebelled.
For her it probably is like, if this guy likes me, why did he not take the hint? And if he did not, then he is not into me, and so he should not bother.
That is where you enter the eery zone, you feel discomfort. And you seek a resolution. You are like, I want out. You never were in.
The One
If you ever liked me, if you like me today, what if I am The One? Will you still insist on the professional song and dance?
I wish we would have our first ever conversation. I think that would make all the clouds go away.
The soldiers of social segregation seek roles. That complicates things a little.
In The News
Clinton turns her attention to Texas, other key primaries Los Angeles Times Wisconsin, the scene of next Tuesday's battle. ..... Hawaii, Obama's native state, will also choose its favorite next Tuesday. .... Television cameras also caught Obama joking with Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential candidate, on the Senate floor during a national security vote. Clinton, Obama Already Targeting March 4 The Associated Press she could well have suffered 10 straight defeats by the time Democrats begin voting March 4 in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont — the biggest single day left on the Democratic nominating calendar. ...... 370 delegates are allocated March 4. .... Texas where Hispanics could supply up to half the Democratic votes. ..... El Paso, San Antonio, Corpus Christi and McAllen, all predominantly Latino cities where her husband, the former president, is so popular his portrait hangs in many Mexican restaurants. Obama-Clinton fight brewing for Texas Latinos Baltimore Sun Obama Courts Hispanics In TexasCBS News Obama to Latinos: I'm talking to youBoston Globe Fixing error gives Obama sweep of all state's countiesSeattle Times Republicans Root for Obama Yahoo! News Can Obama Keep the Momentum?TIME she has raised more than $10 million online since Super Tuesday, she still leads in most national polls and is making a big push to be competitive in Virginia ....... increasingly they are viewed as must-wins, her last chance at the nomination .... Obama would "evaporate relatively quickly once he faced the Republicans." ..... If he overwhelmingly wins the so-called Potomac Primaries, where 237 delegates are at stake, he could start to break away from Clinton, especially since he's also favored in the next two states due to vote on February 19, his native Hawaii and Wisconsin ........ Obama leads Clinton 1,004 to 925 ...... The Maryland and Virginia contests, which are open to all voters, could also have general election implications, testing Obama's appeal to Independent and Republican voters. Clinton, Obama: Why Not Both? the visionary and the technician, the candidate who could inspire the masses and the candidate who could get under the sink and fix the plumbing. ...... 62% of Democrats want Clinton to put Obama on the ticket; 51% want Obama to return the favor if he is the nominee. ........ Terry McAuliffe said on the morning of Super Tuesday that Obama has generated so much excitement, he would have to be considered for the party's vice-presidential nomination ....... An Obama adviser put it this way: "One could argue that the Senator should not even agree to discuss an offer of the vice presidency until Senator Clinton agrees to bar her husband from the West Wing for the duration of the first term. And then once she agrees to that, he should turn it down." ....... the Clintons intend to work as a team if Hillary is elected. "I'll be there, talking her through everything," Bill said in Napa Valley, Calif., last month, "like she did with me." One unaligned party wise man said, "Obama may look at the Clintons, at both of them—at that whole thing they have—and say, 'Jeez, that's just way too [messed] up to be a part of. That's just no place I want to be.'" ........ (56%) of Obama supporters favor choosing someone else. ..... there are those in Clintonland who think Obama has wronged her over the course of the campaign simply because he took her on. ....... John Kennedy tapped Lyndon Johnson in 1960, though the two men were like oil and water. Ronald Reagan named George H.W. Bush in 1980, though they never became very close. Walter Mondale gave a man he resented, Gary Hart, a good look in 1984, before choosing Geraldine Ferraro. And John Kerry recruited his former rival John Edwards in 2004, though the hard feelings on both sides never went away. Whoever wins these primaries may have no choice but to offer it to the also-ran. Obama's Extraordinary Wave Fails to Sink Extraordinary FoeWall Street Journal A few Democratic strategists, and some Republicans, think he is almost there now. ..... "I think he's just about put it away," said Joe Trippi .... "He doesn't have it yet. But all the momentum, all the victories are on his side." Sen. Clinton, he added, has "got to do something, and replacing Patti isn't enough." ...... "The Obama wave is unlike anything I have seen during my career. It would have totally swamped any traditional candidate" ...... "Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod ...... "If they lose Texas, it's bad," Mr. Trippi said. ...... the two would continue battling for delegates "on through the spring and likely to Denver."
Obama to Republicans: “Let ‘em bring it on.” FOXNews he is sounding like a more confident candidate. ..... he has begun to set his sights less on Hillary Clinton while focusing more on John McCain.
Obama Looks To Ride Wave Of Momentum CBS News, USA talk that the New York senator's campaign bid was falling on tough times ...... Obama has 1,139 delegates while Clinton has 1,132. .... her campaign predicted that while Obama may take the spoils in February, March would be her month.
Odds on Obama win rise sharply Financial Times, UK both Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Market - the two most closely watched political futures sites - give Mr Obama overwhelming odds of taking the nomination. ...... IEM gives him a 69 per cent chance against just 28 per cent for Mrs Clinton. ..... "If there was one piece of information I would look at for an election it would be Intrade rather than the opinion polls," said Jason Furman, an economist and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Obama surge stuns Democrats Scotsman super delegates reconsider pledges as polls predict newcomer most likely to beat McCain ..... This weekend she became the first so-called super delegate of the Democratic Party to swap sides, announcing that she had switched from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama. ....... Obama is winning in the ballot box, but Mrs Clinton has a nearly two-to-one superiority in super delegates ..... "The super delegates were supposed to represent the institutional interest of the larger party, as opposed to the crazies in the street" ...... 213 super delegates are for Mrs Clinton and 139 for Mr Obama. ..... Obama has won more states, has more regular delegates and 200,000 more voters ..... Obama has now warned super delegates to consider carefully how to vote. "My strong belief is that if we end up with the most states and the most pledged (regular] delegates from the most voters in the country, that it would be problematic for the political insiders to overturn the judgment of the voters" ........ Howard Dean, the chairman of the Democratic National Convention, last week urged both Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama to come to an "arrangement" before the convention to decide who will be nominated. .... "If 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party," said Donna Brazile, one super delegate. ..... more supers will follow Ms Samuels in switching sides. ...... "Super delegates want to win," Mr Noble said. "Virtually every poll shows Obama six, seven, eight points ahead of McCain. There is a pretty powerful argument that Mrs Clinton is on the wrong side of history, and these politicians (the super delegates] understand that."
I had an email from Planned Parenthood saying the event Let's Talk About Sex was full. So I was feeling a little stranded. The website did say the event was full but I had sent a RSVP over email anyways.
Just then I got a Facebook email from Arthur. Mark Penn was doing a book event at the Strand in the evening, and we were going to show up and protest. Ended up the protest program did not happen. But I wanted to see this guy Penn in person, size him up.
Strand is the legendary bookstore near Union Square. The lady who introduced Penn said her grandfather had founded the store, and her husband was an Oregon Senator, "and my father is there in the back." Family business.
I sat in the front row next to this woman who said she had known Penn for 20 years. I asked her if she voted for Hillary. She said yes. She had been a news producer with ABC News.
What did I see? He came across as someone very academic. But he has been a fixation in the Clinton camp since the Clintons went national. That asks for respect. He is one of those guys that crunch numbers, not cereals for breakfast. The flip side is when you get hit by something like a paradigm shift, which is what Obama 2008 is, you don't know what to do.
The book is an impressive one. Does Hillary know he is out selling his book instead of doing work for her?
Mark Penn Microtrends Marc Ambinder (August 20, 2007) - Political Book Watch: Mark ...His are an attempt to explain why people often make choices that are inexplicable to the naked eye. ....... a huge number of adult women play sports .... 57% of journalists are women. The professions of public relations and the law are trending toward the same lopsidedness. ..... In '04, Penn estimates that nearly 5M ex-cons were "disenfranchised." .... The surplus of single women "are left out of the institution of marriage." They are also more economically engaged than single men: single women bought twice as many new homes than single men in 2005. .... Within the past ten years, the number of women who sought younger male boyfriends has quintupled. ...... As of 2006, Nearly 60% of Americans have been involved in an office romance. 3.5 million Americans are in relationships where one partner lives in a different city than the other. More than 3 million marriages are interracial. ...... The proportion of new dads over 40 years of age "is skyrocketing." Amazon.com: Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big ... Mark Penn's Microtrends Interview
Clinton's PowerPointer - washingtonpost.comOne of the party's most prominent pollsters ..... While not her campaign manager in name, Penn controls the main elements of her campaign ..... If Clinton seems cautious, it may be because Penn has made caution a science ..... a wealthy chief executive who heads a giant public relations firm, where he personally hones Microsoft's image in Washington .... "Mark brings a certain certainty about his point of view that can feel like an anchor in stormy seas" ..... In their $5 million Georgetown mansion, Penn and his wife, Nancy Jacobson ..... Jewish and pro-Israel, like Penn ..... Israel. In 1981, he and business partner Doug Schoen helped reelect Menachem Begin, one of the most right-wing prime ministers in the country's history ...... Penn started his polling business with Schoen with the 1977 New York mayoral candidacy of Edward I. Koch, and he got to the White House through another New York pollster, Dick Morris ...... Penn likes to swim in as much hard information as possible ..... his business has exploded over the decades. ...... Penn and Schoen adapting corporate models to the political sphere and vice versa. ..... relies on a team of about 20 employees to do most of the day-to-day work Mark Penn - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia TPM Cafe | Talking Points Memo | The Real Case Against Mark Penn
Man Friday
So on Friday I took the number one guy on my corporate team out to an Indian buffet lunch in Little India not far from the Obama 2008 victory party on Super Duper Tuesday, and ends up Adam's first place to live in the city was this high rise across the street from Tonic, where the Obama party was. There was an icecream place on the ground floor of the building. We went for it after lunch.
My first weekend in NYC was in 1999 when I was with a dot com in Philly for summer: I had helped found it. I had come over to the place of two high school classmate bankers who lived in a high rise exactly like this one. I shared that story with Adam.
"This might be the very building," I said.
Adam said he was flying off to vacation on Sunday. His girlfriend in New Haven will take his car. He said he had no idea where he was going.
"Now you are sounding like a startup guy," I said.
For the next six months, he will travel much - he might end up in China, Romania - and he will log into the virtual office. It is going to be cloud group dynamics the way it supposed to be.
Lunch was yet another brainstorming session. This was the first time I bought him lunch. He has bought me meals many times at his place on the 19th and 1st.
We are about to hire some IIT Mumbai people. Mumbai is a sister city to NYC.
Adam is the reason round one money got raised. And I am the reason he is going to drop out of Stanford Business. He applied for fall. Dropping out will read great in the bio pieces on him in the papers.
Some woman at the Zipper Factory (Planned Parenthood: A Different Kind Of Event) told me the main Hillary party on February 5 was at "Tonic West." It was a DL21C event near Times Square. I was puzzled.
That's interesting. The Obama party was at Tonic East, and the Hillary party was at Tonic West. I did not even know there was a Tonic West.
That did not just happen. Somebody made it happen that way. Who? (Tonic: What A Party) To me it reads like Elizabeth Caputo's political poetry.
A little bit of information like this puts me back to square one. The whole issue feels so unresolved.
Morgan Stanley raised more money for Hillary than any other bank in this city. CEO Mack has been an enthusiast, I guess. By the way, my man Friday Adam wrote directly to Mack to create his 2.0 job with Stanley that he has now duly quit.
And with the big hits banking has taken the past six months or so, it is a good idea to stay squarely on the boss' good side. That is totally understandable.
Caputo spent the major chunk of her time at the Parenthood event with some Hispanic looking dude. She came alone. At one point I thought she did the bag thing to him. So no interest, just a statement.
It all feels unresolved.
My feeling was, okay, so you are not uncomfortable that I am at the same event. That is different from getting thrown out of your last two events. But that is still not concrete.
This is what I mean when I say, you don't get to have it two different ways. You can't be this white woman who is out to make me look bad. And be someone who likes me at the same time. That puts me into socially unsafe situations.
Granted this event was after February 5, so the political tension was nonexistent.
But still it gets very confusing for me. My thing is simple. Either you don't like me and possibly feel uncomfortable in my presence, in that case I am on schedule to staying away. Or if you like me, tell me you like me, and let's hook up.
I sent out a RSVP for this.
Tuesday, February 12
8:00 pm
Women's Issues Committee Meeting: Monthly Issues Chat RSVP for Location and More Information
