Monday, March 06, 2023

Bakhmut

Bollywood superstar Amitabh Bachchan injured while filming action scene
Ukraine war: Russia's Wagner boss suggests 'betrayal' in Bakhmut battle The head of Russia's Wagner private army says it is not getting the ammunition it needs from Moscow, as it seeks to gain control of Bakhmut. ...... But Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin says his army's lack of ammunition could be "ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal". ...... many analysts say it has become a symbolic prize in the war and has little strategic value....... And in a further sign of the rift, on Monday Mr Prigozhin said his representative was unable to access the headquarters of Russia's military command. It is unclear where the headquarters is located. ........ "What if they [the Russian authorities] want to set us up, saying that we are scoundrels - and that's why they are not giving us ammunition, not giving us weapons, and not letting us replenish our personnel, including [recruiting] prisoners?" ....... In Saturday's video, Mr Prigozhin also said Russia's front line would collapse without his troops. ........ The defence ministry said he was inspecting work carried out to "restore infrastructure in the Donbas" - words that are likely to grate in Ukraine, given Russia's responsibility for the destruction.

Wagner chief warns of collapse of Russian front line if there is retreat from Bakhmut the Wagner chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, uploaded a video on Saturday saying that his troops were fearful they were being “set up” to be blamed if Russia lost its war with Ukraine. He said in the video that without his troops in Bakhmut, Russia’s front line would collapse. ...... Prigozhin has staked his reputation on the battle for Bakhmut, and has been highly critical of what he says is a lack of support from Russia’s defense ministry, while also publicly feuding with the generals in charge of the wider war effort. ...... The Institute for the Study of War wrote over the weekend that Ukraine’s soldiers in the city were not at immediate risk of being encircled by Russian forces........ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February that the conflict in Bakhmut was getting more difficult, and that Kyiv wouldn’t pay “any price” to defend the city. ...... “On March 5, I wrote a letter to the commander of the [special military operation] grouping about the urgent need to allocate ammunition. On March 6, at 8 a.m., my representative at the headquarters had his pass cancelled and was denied access,” Prigozhin said in a post, according to Reuters.

Russia will keep selling cheap oil at bumped-up levels to India - this is why they're both in it for the long haul, a top analyst explains Even if the Ukraine war ends, Moscow will keep its crude prices cheap for India ....... Russia's bumped-up oil exports to India are here to stay as the two are building a long-term relationship based on cheap prices ........ "The entire India-to-Russia story is a long-term story, which will not suddenly stop. It's going to be a new kind of feature of the market," said Katona, the lead crude oil analyst at commodities intelligence firm Kpler. ......... While China is the top importer of Russia's crude, Moscow has a keen interest in keeping its foot in the door with India. The country's refiners have become an increasingly important market for it after the G-7 countries imposed a price cap and other sanctions meant to crush Russia's energy revenues funding its war in Ukraine. ......... Even if the Ukraine war ends, Katona thinks the discounts will almost certainly remain in place — and the prices might get cheaper from where they are now. India is paying about $10 to $12 dollars below the price ........ India bought almost no Russian crude oil one year ago, but has been snapping up record amounts of crude at discounted costs this year after other countries backed away from Moscow. ........ A key reason is that Indian companies pay on a delivered basis, meaning they don't handle the shipping and insurance. Russia can maximize its profits for the whole transaction in its charges for those extras. Chinese purchasers, in contrast, might insist on using their own fleets ........ big Russian companies don't have equity in China, while they do have ownership stakes in Indian refiners. ......... In January, Russia sent almost 2 million barrels of crude a day to India, not far behind China's nearly 2.5 million, according to Kpler data. Its number three importer is on the edge of the Asia market — Turkey, well behind at around 400 thousand barrels a day. ......... "In a sense, it's not much of a change, because it's only a reshuffling of what was flowing where initially. Europe was buying this. Now India is buying this. It's taken on a longer route, but it's also more discounted" .......... Russia pushes out Saudi Arabia from India, so Saudi Arabia sells more to China ......... India and China, the economic powerhouses of the region, are both buying crude below market levels. Meanwhile, importers in Europe and the US have to pay full price.

NYC super-commuters travel up to 5 hours round-trip to the office. They say it’s worth it



To avert war over Taiwan, a Sino-US joint declaration may be needed As was the case with the negotiations with Britain over Hong Kong pre-1997, China could agree to sidestep Taiwan’s political status in talks with the US to explore what impact reunification would have on American and Chinese interests ........ Last year, The Economist named the Taiwan Strait the most dangerous place on Earth. ....... With People’s Liberation Army aircraft flying closer and more frequently to Taiwan, talk of war is pervasive. Taiwan recently extended mandatory military training for its young men from four months to a year. A book by a retired Taiwanese general, advocating asymmetric warfare to defend the island – essentially calling for urban guerilla warfare – was reportedly well received by US military experts and strategists. .........

war in the Taiwan Strait is possible. Beijing has never renounced the use of force to achieve reunification

.......... In 2005, China passed its Anti-Secession Law which stipulates the use of force where there is no hope of a peaceful resolution of the issue. .......... The changing mood is also due to China’s new Taiwan policy framework. President Xi Jinping, in declaring national reunification part of China’s grand rejuvenation, the core of his political agenda to be achieved by 2049, has in effect set a deadline to reunite with the island. This ups the pressure. .......... One way or another, President Xi will achieve this. The question is not when, but how. .......... Beijing’s determination to retake Taiwan may be hard to understand for people outside the country. But it is no different from the US government deciding to take back Hawaii by force if Confederate general Robert Lee had staked out the island after his defeat in the American Civil War. ............ Taiwan is a major supplier to the US of the high-end chips it needs for both commercial and military applications. There are few, if any, alternatives to these microprocessors, which makes the issue of strategic importance. .......... Staying at the top in world affairs, maintaining its technology and military edge, and ensuring the US dollar remains the premium world trade and central bank reserve currency are all a matter of life and death to many in the US leadership. ........... the People’s Liberation Army seems confident of its ability to take Taiwan. ............. There would be war between the US and China only if Beijing has no alternative but to use force and the US decides to intervene. This should be, and can be, avoided. .......... The Sino-British negotiation over Hong Kong could be a possible template.
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Friday, March 03, 2023

3: Navalny

As Heat Pumps Go Mainstream, a Big Question: Can They Handle Real Cold? . An electric heat pump is an all-in-one heating and cooling unit, essentially an air-conditioner that runs in two directions. ........ Heat pumps, in contrast, don’t generate heat. They transfer it. That allows them to achieve more than 300 percent efficiency in some cases. ........ a federal tax credit from last year’s climate and tax law can cover 30 percent of the costs of purchase and installation, up to $2,000. .

And Child Care for All Earlier in the pandemic, the federal government did more to help parents than it ever did before. Washington temporarily mandated paid leave for many workers, it gave billions of dollars in aid to child care businesses, and for several glorious months in 2021, it even expanded the child tax credit to provide assistance to most families with children. .

The Era of Shutting Others Out of New York’s Suburbs Is Ending . For much of the 20th century, towns surrounding New York City used a stomach-churning mix of racial covenants and restrictive zoning laws to shut out Black Americans and others considered undesirable from thriving suburbs. The federal government supported this system in myriad ways, including by denying government backing for mortgage loans in Black neighborhoods, a practice known as redlining, which hardened segregation and sharply restricted the ability of Black Americans to secure mortgages and buy homes. After World War II, the government greatly expanded its role in residential segregation by backing large suburban developments across the United States like Levittown, on Long Island, on the condition that they exclude Black buyers. ........ more than half of renters in New York City and its suburbs are paying one-third or more of their income on rent......... The proposal would also require New York City and its suburbs to rezone areas immediately surrounding subway and commuter rail stations to allow for greater housing density. ...... In suburban New York, local zoning control is king and has been used to jealously guard access to some of the best public amenities in the United States, including public services, swimming pools, beaches and especially schools. ......... The Nassau County executive, Bruce Blakeman, in an interview with Politico warned of a “suburban uprising.” .

The Brave Man Whom Putin Wants to Kill Aleksei Navalny, Russia’s leading dissident and opposition leader, may be something of a Mandela of our age. Poisoned, imprisoned, brutalized, Navalny stands unbroken in his cell: still mocking Putin and scathing in his denunciation of the invasion of Ukraine. ....... his 21-year-old daughter, Dasha Navalnaya (the feminine form of the family name). She’s a junior at Stanford University, and while navigating exams and term papers, she is also campaigning for her dad and promoting a superb documentary about him, “Navalny.” It won the award for best documentary this month at the British Academy Film Awards. .......... “I sort of perceive the documentary as this ‘get out of death’ card,” she told me in flawless, lightly accented English. “The more awareness that we create, the less Putin and his posse would be tempted to kill my dad.” ......... “He is sort of living vicariously through me, through a college experience in America, which is very fun for him,” she said wistfully. ......... Navalny today seems so committed to democratic and European values that he is risking his life for them.



Big Money, Big Houses and Big Problems in Brooklyn Heights In Jenny Jackson’s debut novel, “Pineapple Street,” readers get a tour of a world they might learn not to envy by the end of the book. .

For Thomas Mann, the World’s Chaos Is Inside the House A newly translated story by the German master explores a father’s feelings for his children in a time of fierce social change. ....... “When a man has six children, he can’t love them all equally,” Mann claimed. ....... While the family in the story, like the Manns themselves, has not been made destitute by the nation’s collapsing currency, it takes planning and ingenuity to procure even the most basic groceries. ........... The story is also set in a time of fierce social change, during which the two eldest Mann children began to fascinate their father. They dressed as they pleased, said whatever they liked and slept with anyone who struck their fancy. In a letter, their father made his jealousy of their freedom clear: “Why should you be the only ones who constantly sin?” .