Friday, April 17, 2020

Coronavirus News (45)

Trump Calls For Reopening America’s Gyms Day After Call With SoulCycle’s Owner



Cuomo mocks Trump in Friday diatribe Gov. Andrew Cuomo embarked on a 20-minute stemwinder during his press briefing Friday, hitting back on a series of presidential tweets accusing him of overreacting to the coronavirus pandemic. ........ “I don’t know, what am I supposed to send a bouquet of flowers?” Cuomo said. .......... Trump did a “very graceful 180” when he went from saying he had total authority to reopen the nation’s economy to instead saying states would form their own plans, Cuomo said mockingly. ....... “By the way, it was always up to the states, what are you going to grant me what the Constitution gave me before you were born?” he said. “I don’t need the president of the United States to tell me that I’m governor and I don't need the president of the United States to tell me the powers of a state." ........... “All he’s doing is walking in front of the parade, but he has nothing to do with the timing of the parade,” he said. “Governors are going to open when they need to open." ........ $500 billion to stabilize states’ economic losses that would be distributed by need. ......... Cuomo’s administration has predicted as much as $15 billion in lost revenue for the state. ...... the state’s comptroller Tom DiNapoli this week warning he doesn’t know how New York will scrape by without federal assistance. Budget director Robert Mujica confirmed during Friday’s briefing that “there will be reductions” in significant state spending areas without additional federal aid. .......

[Trump] doesn’t want to provide funding to the states and he doesn’t want to help with testing,” Cuomo said.

“I don’t care about his politics, but if we don’t have federal help on testing, that's a real problem.”

Heartland hotspots: A sudden rise in coronavirus cases is hitting rural states without stay-at-home orders Just as cases are starting to plateau in some big cities and along the coasts, the coronavirus is catching fire in rural states across the American heartland, where there has been a small but significant spike this week in cases. Playing out amid these outbreaks is a clash between a frontier culture that values individual freedom and personal responsibility, and the onerous but necessary restrictions to contain a novel biological threat.......

The bump in coronavirus cases is most pronounced in states without stay at home orders.

Oklahoma saw a 53% increase in cases over the past week, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Over same time, cases jumped 60% in Arkansas, 74% in Nebraska, and 82% in Iowa. South Dakota saw a whopping 205% spike. ...........

And all of those numbers may very well undercount the total cases, given a persistent lack of testing across the US...... the notion perpetuated by President Donald Trump and some of his Republican allies that the restrictive social-distancing measures aren't necessary in rural America -- and that these states even offer a model for reopening the country.

........ With the real potential for higher prices and even food shortages, insufficient action by Republican governors in the heartland could continue to ripple across the country in ways that would adversely affect the lives of Americans everywhere.


The rightwing groups behind wave of protests against Covid-19 restrictions Protesters in Michigan and other states claim to speak for ordinary citizens, but are also supported by street-fighting far-right groups
'I have never been so mad about a phone call in my life' Democrats erupted after receiving vague answers from Vice President Mike Pence about efforts to ramp up coronavirus testing.
Nearly 7,000 people have died of coronavirus in US nursing homes

We Are Probably Only One-Tenth of the Way Through This Pandemic over just the last few days, Americans have grown less worried, and more optimistic, about the coronavirus pandemic. .......... But getting out of the lockdown — and out of your shelter-in-place bunker — is

not the beginning of the end of the pandemic. It is only the end of the beginning

— the very brief beginning of what seems likely to be an epically long saga of disease, fear, and uncertainty. ........ The first is a vaccine. The second is effective treatment for the sick .... The third is through herd immunity ......... those “test and trace” programs — isn’t a path out of the pandemic, only out of lockdown. ......... simply a method of waiting in relative safety and security, allowing us to live somewhat more openly, though still under the ever-present threat of infection, until the arrival of one of the other three end points. ...... The most optimistic projection for vaccines is that they begin to be available this fall; other reputable estimates suggest between one and two years from now. A two-year development cycle would be unprecedented speed for any vaccine .... onto each timeline you’d have to add some amount of time for rollout and administration. .............. the drugs likely to really “cure” the disease are just notions in a lab, at this point. ....... herd immunity. ... requires between 60 to 80 percent of the population to have antibodies. ..........

a generous rough estimate for how many Americans have been exposed is 5 percent.

........ While there are some reasons to hope that the exposure could be significantly higher, 5 percent would be more than ten times higher than the number of known cases ........... we are only one-12th of the way through this crisis. .........

On April 14, in the journal Science, Harvard researchers suggested the epidemic could last through 2022

— not just into the fall, and the election, but all the way into the midterms.




Angela Merkel gave one of the clearest explanations of how coronavirus transmission works
Angela Merkel draws on science background in Covid-19 explainer German chancellor excels in describing epidemiological basis of lockdown exit strategy .................. In her 14 years as Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel’s straight delivery and aversion to rhetorical grandeur has been a frequent bugbear for journalists and party colleagues longing for a more passionate line of communication between the head of government and the public. ...... Yet in the middle of the coronavirus crisis, even her critics have come to appreciate a politician who is on safer ground explaining the importance of decimal places than projecting great visions of the future. ........ all the calm confidence expected of a former research scientist with a doctorate in quantum chemistry who once co-authored a paper on the “influence of spatial correlations on the rate of chemical reactions”. ........ Without measures to slow down the spread of the virus, such as physical distancing, scientists believe Covid-19 to have a reproduction number of two to three. ...... If the reproduction number of one were to go up to 1.1, Merkel explained, the German health system could be overwhelmed by October. If it were to go up to 1.2, hospitals could reach a crisis point in July, and if it went up to 1.3 the crisis point would come in June. ......... Merkel’s calculation, which came at the end of Wednesday night’s press conference, has received more attention abroad than in Germany, where the public is accustomed to the strengths and weaknesses that come with her scientific training. ........

her scientific background made her an outsider in a political arena dominated by men with law degrees, but also enabled her rise.

.......... “She knows the laws of formal logic and is therefore capable of building logical chains with speed and determination.” .......... Asked why she decided to study physics as a young woman, Merkel has said it helped her to keep an independent mind in an overtly ideological system: “Basic mathematical calculations and the laws of nature cannot be suspended, even in the GDR [East Germany]. Two and two makes four, even under [the former East German leader Erich] Honecker.” .........Was there anything politicians could learn from scientists, one German journalist once asked her. “Gravity,” Merkel responded.

“Without mass, no depth.”





Trump’s Plan to Contain the Coronavirus by Unleashing Anarchy Seems Risky President Trump has two basic modes of governing: abnegation and abuse. Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, Trump has alternately — and, at times, simultaneously — claimed absolute authority and zero responsibility

What Have Epidemiologists Learned About the Coronavirus? what we know about whether people who have been infected are now immune, the hope that warm summer weather will halt the disease’s spread, and why testing remains the only way to prevent further rounds of mass quarantines. ......... We know we’re seeing a particular number of deaths, and that’s a number we can be reasonably confident about. The number of people hospitalized is also something that we can be a bit confident about. ......... all of those measures come out of a pool of infected people that we don’t see, and we don’t know how big that pool is. ............. virological testing to see if you’re infected right now, but serological testing, which tests for antibodies to indicate if you’ve ever been infected ........ it’s clear that there has to be some protection, but the amount of that protection, how long it lasts, how important it is for interrupting transmissions—those are open questions. .......... it’s likely that your immunity would be a little bit stronger if you had symptoms, because a lot of the symptoms you get for diseases like this are driven not by the virus itself but by your immune response. ........ Immunological interactions are complex things. In some cases it can even make second infections worse. We think that’s quite unlikely in this particular disease. ............ the best scenario right now, that essentially there are many more people out there who have been infected now than we think, so that we’ve accumulated these high levels of community immunity, or herd immunity, that will protect us from subsequent waves. ........ it seems unlikely that it would be really, really widespread. ....... We are starting to see some severe cases in young children. ........

asymptomatic people are playing a significant role in overall transmission...... “Asymptomatic” is a squirrely concept, and what we really mean here is “not detected and likely not detectable.” .

.......... to perhaps push the second wave of the epidemic further into the fall. But I think the idea that it’s somehow going to save us and eliminate the disease is a pipe dream. .........

There has been significant transmission in places like Singapore and Thailand, where warmer and more humid conditions exist year-round.

........... There are really only two diseases we’ve eradicated—smallpox and rinderpest, and rinderpest isn’t even a human disease. We’re close on polio. But in all of those cases, we had a vaccine to work with. So I don’t think we should have any thought that this will just go away. ......... if people start going back to business as usual, the population is still at least partially at risk for infection, and we could see a big second wave. ......... the only reasonable strategy that we have, with the tools we have now, is a “test, trace, and isolate” type of strategy ........ Right now we’re essentially doing quarantine isolation in a very unfocussed manner across the entire population, sort of a blunt hammer approach. ........... But if we’re going to start saying things like, “O.K, you’re immune, so we would prioritize you for working on covid-19 wards,” we need to have a really good sense of what actual correlates to protection are. ............ there haven’t really been any cases where a large epidemic has not been overwhelming, where people of a country with a large epidemic have managed to not have their health-care system be overwhelmed. ............ if you don’t take any efforts to combat this disease, you will get overwhelmed..... social distancing, at the level of stay-at-home orders and lockdowns, does work. .... there may be a path focussed around testing.


Coronavirus at Smithfield pork plant: The untold story of America's biggest outbreak

How did the biggest cluster in the US emerge in a corner of South Dakota?

......... "They do have a positive [Covid-19] case and are planning to stay open." ....... the ninth-largest hog-processing facility in the US. ........ processes 19,500 freshly-slaughtered hogs per day, slicing, grinding and smoking them into millions of pounds of bacon, hot dogs and spiral-cut hams. With 3,700 workers, it is also the fourth-largest employer in the city. .......... The reporter confirmed through a company spokeswoman that, indeed, an employee had tested positive, was in a 14-day quarantine, and that his or her work area and other common spaces had been "thoroughly sanitised". But the plant, deemed part of a "critical infrastructure industry" by the Trump administration, would remain fully operational. ............ nearly three anxiety-filled weeks during which her mother and father continued to report to a factory they knew could be contaminated, to jobs they could not afford to lose. ......... They stood side-by-side less than a foot away from their colleagues on production lines, they passed in and out of crowded locker rooms, walkways and cafeterias. ......... By 15 April, when Smithfield finally closed under pressure from the South Dakota governor's office, the plant had become the number one hotspot in the US, with a cluster of 644 confirmed cases .......... 55% of the caseload in the state ........ have surpassed the USS Theodore Roosevelt naval ship and the Cook County Jail in Chicago ........ "He got that virus there. He was very healthy before," his wife, Angelita, told the BBC in Spanish. "My husband will not be the only one to die." ........ While many white-collar workers around the country are sheltering in place and working from home, food industry workers like the employees at Smithfield are deemed "essential" and must remain on the front lines. ........ The workforce at Smithfield is made up largely of immigrants and refugees from places like Myanmar, Ethiopia, Nepal, Congo and El Salvador. There are 80 different languages spoken in the plant. ....... hours are long, the work is gruelling, and standing on a production line often means being less than a foot away from your co-workers on either side. .......

deciding between employment and their health has been an impossible choice.

........... "I have a lot of bills. My baby's coming soon - I have to work," said one 25-year-old employee whose wife is eight months pregnant. "If I get a positive, I'm really worried I can't save my wife." ..... Food processing plants throughout the country are experiencing coronavirus outbreaks which have the potential to disrupt the country's food supply chain. ............ early requests for personal protective equipment were ignored, that sick workers were incentivised to continue working, and that information regarding the spread of the virus was kept from them, even when they were at risk of exposing family and the broader public. ...... "I haven't read anything from the CDC that says a hair net over your face will do much good" .......... If employees like Kaleb were to quit, they would be ineligible for unemployment. Advocates are hearing from visa-holders who fret that even if they were to apply for unemployment, they might be considered "public charges" which could render them ineligible for permanent residency under a new rule enacted by the Trump administration last year. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (Cares) Act excludes anyone living in a mixed-status household with an undocumented family member. .............. "I'm terrified. Terrified. Like I'm at a loss for words. [But] I got four kids to take care of. That income is what provides a roof over my head." .........

First there were the headaches, then aches and chills. Next came the shortness of breath.

...... Two days after her mother's positive coronavirus diagnosis, Julia woke up on the couch with a headache, a cough and a dry throat. For the first time since the pandemic arrived in her life, she had slept through the night but awoke feeling more exhausted than ever. .......... Neela and Ahmed got the call that he was infected, and the couple sealed themselves away from one another in separate bedrooms. They communicate via text. She makes him ginger tea and leaves it for him on the counter. He obsessively disinfects everything he touches.


Less than half of L.A. County residents still have jobs amid coronavirus crisis
Bill Gates becomes top target of bogus coronavirus conspiracy theories right-wing conspiracists and anti-vaccine zealots accused him of using the virus to control the masses ....... Some online cranks are reportedly basing their wild theories about Gates — who was worth $104 billion as of Thursday — on a 2015 speech in which he predicted an infectious virus was more likely than war to kill millions of people.......

a bogus claim that Gates wanted to put microchips in people’s bodies — an idea former Trump campaign adviser Roger Stone echoed in a recent radio interview.


Feds charge doctor who cited Trump to push hydroxychloroquine 'miracle cure'
Beaches, parks to reopen in Jacksonville, Fla., on Friday
In Trump's 'LIBERATE' tweets, extremists see a call to arms Trump's tweets pushed many online extremist communities to speculate whether the president was advocating for armed conflict, an event they’ve termed “the boogaloo."
Trump appears to back those protesting social distancing measures
USDA announces $19 billion food assistance program
'Full steam ahead': RNC chairwoman says GOP plans to stage August convention despite coronavirus
Trump calls to 'liberate' states where protesters have demanded easing coronavirus lockdowns
Protesters gather at Minnesota governor's mansion over lockdown, chant 'open up'
Stanford study suggests coronavirus is more widespread than realized
Antibody research indicates coronavirus may be far more widespread than known Of 3,300 people in California county up to 4% found to have been infected.
No plan in sight: Test troubles cloud Trump recovery effort
New WH press secretary points to non-existent 'testing system' The new White House press secretary believes Trump's helped create "the most expansive and accurate testing system in the world." I wish that were true.
Trump’s Culture Warriors Are a Literal Death Cult Now



Coronavirus outbreak may have started in September, say British scientists Study narrows origin to a period between September and December, after virus mutated to a form that was harmful to humans ......It is more likely to have come from southern China than Wuhan, but further analysis of bats and other potential host animals is needed, geneticist says

Coronavirus News (44)



Why does India have so few Covid-19 cases and deaths? India is four times more populous than the US, but has just 2% the number of cases and only 1.5% of the number of Covid-19 deaths. How has the country, whose per capita income is just tenth of the US, avoided being flattened by the pandemic? ......... The epidemic may have struck later than in other countries. ... India’s 21-day lockdown may have successfully suppressed the epidemic. Physical distancing is one of the best ways to slow the epidemic ...... India has not been able to test enough to count all cases and deaths. ..... India may have protective characteristics against Covid-19. ........

the low share of elderly in the population, the high temperatures and humidity in India, widespread BCG vaccination for tuberculosis, or resistance to malaria have helped India escape the brunt of the pandemic.

....... A Covid-19 death typically is confirmed by a Covid RT-PCR test. Those tests are in short supply and cost INR 4500 ($60) in India. Moreover, if an individual with Covid-like symptoms dies, but a test is not performed before his death, it does not make sense to waste scarce resources on the cadaver. Nor do officials report unconfirmed, Covid-like deaths, because there are many reasons that one may die from flu-like symptoms, and officials do not want to create panic. ....... By shutting down travel and factories, it has eliminated transport-linked deaths and deaths triggered by air pollution. Physical distancing measures may also lower deaths from influenza, just as they reduce Covid-19 deaths. So it is theoretically possible that Covid-19 has had a substantial mortality impact, but that total deaths have not risen because the lockdown reduced non-Covid deaths. .......... Its reproductive rate in India is around 1.8, which implies that approximately 65% percent of the population will be infected without a lockdown or vaccine.

Even if India has a death rate as low as Germany’s 0.3%, two million people could die.

........... the mortality rate from Covid-19 infection is much higher among the elderly: it is

14.8% for those above 80, but just 0.2% for individuals below 39.

In India, only 0.8% of the population is above 80 and nearly 75% are below the age of 40. .......... The fatality rate rises by roughly 30% if a person has cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, or hypertension. India has roughly double the rate of heart disease as Italy, and among the highest prevalence of respiratory diseases in the world. In addition, India is home to one in six people with diabetes. ......... hotter temperatures in India may slow the virus. ....... Countries with latitudes between 30-50 degrees above or below the equator, and average temperatures between 5 and 11 degrees celsius have, thus far, borne a higher burden from Covid. ...... India may face higher transmission rates during the monsoon, which is India’s flu season ......... Covid-19 may not go away in warm weather as colds do, because significant parts of the population remain vulnerable to the virus. The weather alone is insufficient to protect India......... universal BCG vaccination in India, or domestic hydroxychloroquine use to combat malaria. ......... India’s relatively light exposure to Covid-19 remains a puzzle. It may have certain characteristics that protect it from the deadliest impact, but they do not suggest that it will escape the pandemic unscathed. Great care and vigilance are still necessary.


President Trump Announces Three-Phase Plan To Reopen Economy
Coronavirus updates: As some in EU find respite, U.K.'s COVID-19 toll soars
Trump snubs Romney by inviting every other GOP senator to council on restarting economy amid coronavirus
Trump faces roadblocks with threat to adjourn Congress
Bill and Melinda Gates stored food in their basement because they knew a pandemic was eventually coming
'We Alerted The World' To Coronavirus On Jan. 5, WHO Says In Response To U.S.
Carbon emissions from fossil fuels could fall by 2.5bn tonnes in 2020 Reduction of 5% would represent biggest drop in demand for industry on record
Google's fast-growing Meet video tool getting Zoom-like layout, Gmail link





As COVID-19 cases mount in nursing homes, exact locations remain a mystery
Cautionary Tale Spurs 'World's First' COVID-19 Psychiatric Ward There was no hand sanitizer on the hospital's psychiatric ward for fear patients would drink it; they slept together on futons in communal rooms and the windows were sealed shut to prevent suicide attempts — all conditions that created the perfect environment for the rapid spread of a potentially deadly virus. ...... it was the reality in the psychiatric ward of South Korea's Daenam Hospital after COVID-19 struck. Eventually health officials put the ward on lockdown, but it wasn't long before all but two of the unit's 103 patients were positive for the virus....... "because how many inpatient general medical units are going to want to take a significantly symptomatic COVID-19 patient who was in the hospital for being acutely suicidal? There are no easy solutions."
Coronavirus in a psychiatric hospital: 'It's the worst of all worlds' Social distancing in a psychiatric facility is easier said than done. So far 34 people at Western State Hospital have tested positive for coronavirus......... It's not unusual to hear patients screaming and crying at Western State Hospital, workers say. But lately, they say it's been worse than normal at the massive psychiatric facility just south of Tacoma, Washington........Since COVID-19 hit the hospital a month ago, its Victorian-era buildings have felt "eerie" and "strange," according to workers......... The art room is empty, group therapy is canceled and patients eat alone in the cafeteria. A skeleton staff cares for more than 700 patients battling illnesses that range from schizophrenia to suicidal depression. Older patients are not so much quarantined as stranded, unwilling or unable to get up from their hard plastic beds without help ..... younger patients are free to roam the halls with no masks. ......

"We have people who are sick, and we have people who are absolutely scared."

........... Western State, one of the oldest and largest state psychiatric hospitals west of the Mississippi, was the first in the U.S. to report a coronavirus case. At least 62 other state facilities have followed to date. An outbreak at a Louisiana facility has infected 99 patients and 34 staff members; in New Jersey, all four state psychiatric hospitals have outbreaks and six patients have died....... "You get one case in these institutions, and you've got 10 in the next few days." ......... "These are almost invariably very high-risk patients. They're elderly, they have chronic medical conditions, they're on medications. It's a mess." ......... "It's sad to think about how many staff members are going to be positive, how that is going to trickle down to their families

Prisoners in New York City jails sound alarm as coronavirus spreads: 'I fear for my life' American jails are "ticking time bombs" for COVID-19, a retired sheriff said............ New York‘s notoriously brutal and unsanitary jail system ...... So far, 167 inmates and 114 Department of Correction staff members have tested positive for COVID-19 ...... Jails may act as COVID-19 incubators, sickening and killing inmates and workers and spreading the disease to the broader public. ........ “County jails will suffer the most because they’re the ones that cycle people in and out the quickest.” ...... There are indications that COVID-19 is beginning to spread in lockups around the country. Jail inmates have tested positive in Illinois, New Jersey, California, Texas, Louisiana, Georgia, South Dakota and Washington, D.C. Inmates or staff members have tested positive at state prisons in California, Louisiana, Michigan, Texas, New York and Georgia.......... “We’re at the epicenter of the epicenter,” Skelly said. “You want to talk about social distancing, but you have housing areas in jails that are 50 inmates to one officer, or almost 100 to one.”



Taleb: The Only Man Who Has A Clue
Wuhan abruptly increased its coronavirus death toll to 50% higher than previously reported