Wednesday, April 08, 2020

Coronavirus News (36)

When Will the Jobs Return? The number of people filing for unemployment insurance doubled to 6.65 million in the latest weekly report on April 2, taking the two-week total to nearly 10 million. On April 3, the unemployment report for March logged a loss of 701,000 jobs, making it the worst month for unemployment since the last recession. It also took the unemployment rate to 4.4% in March from 3.5% in February, the largest one-month increase since January 1975. ......... Workers are more pessimistic about losing work in the coming year as they expect overall unemployment to be higher ....... workers also expect the growth in their earnings to fall and are less optimistic about finding a new job in the coming year. ....... two-thirds of the jobs lost were in the leisure and hospitality sectors, with restaurants and bars accounting for 417,000 job losses, or nearly 60% of the total. ....... “Lenders are concerned that rising unemployment and a potential recession will send loan defaults soaring,” the report noted. The CARES Act passed last month provides $350 billion in loans for small businesses. “[But] the program, which works on a first-come, first-served basis, likely won’t be large enough to satisfy the needs of all of America’s small businesses” ....... major retailers have announced furloughs and layoffs. “We’re going to see this spread into other areas of the economy .........

Most people who do work sitting at a computer can do that anywhere.

........ bonds formed at the workplace don’t wear out easily ....... “As workers stay idle, their training deteriorates, making them less employable and slowing the recovery for firms.” ...... “You want the combination of the business loans and the generous unemployment benefits to keep people sitting tight” ........ “Kurzarbeit” is an agreement between the state, employers and employees in which employers don’t fire employees who in turn agree to a cut in wages to around 80%. The state reimburses a large portion of compensation directly to the worker, he explained. “[That] was a major factor why recovery in the previous recession in Germany was much faster than in all other E.U. countries.” ........ The advantage of the Kurzarbeit system is that workers can maintain their jobs and the employer-employee relationship is not interrupted along with fringe benefits ..........

Job losses will climb to some 28 million by May, erasing all the jobs gained since 2010





Why are Markets Collapsing? How Bad Will COVID-19 Really Be? Markets are collapsing because investors hate uncertainty. ....... markets are acting as if we are going to encounter the worst-case scenario ...... the market reaction is more extreme than any of the likely possible futures would justify. .......

COVID-19 is a new coronavirus, like the common cold and the flu.

........ Even in a worst-case scenario, in which we all get sick, we are not all going to die. ...... We know COVID-19 has achieved permanence. The virus is established globally. Enough people have the virus in enough locations to ensure that it is not going to vanish on its own. It can no longer be contained. ....... We don’t know how extreme COVID-19 mutation will be. ....... We don’t know how lethal COVID-19 will be. ........ the only combination we would need to worry about is high mutation and high lethal­ity. ........ White-collar professions attain a high degree of virtualization. Executives and their staffs telecommute. Faculty and their students engage in distance learning. Farm work continues largely unchanged. Blue-collar workers mostly are replaced by increasingly intense levels of automation, and social programs are developed to avoid total devasta­tion of low-income populations.......... Would the most disadvantaged populations in the world, Bangladeshis and the residents of Sub-Saharan Africa, perish in vast numbers while other parts of the world escape relatively unscathed? Mass migrations and floods of refugees would be unprecedented; think in terms of half the world’s population under­taking migrations on a level comparable to the Irish migrations during the Potato Famine of the late 1840s, while the other half of the world experiences the worst economic crisis in a century. ............ Class war­fare erupts between wealthy and impoverished populations throughout the developing world. Mass migration and ethnic warfare erupts between the Third World and the more fortunate segments of the population. Lack of effective leadership does not save the wealthy nations of the West. ...... The markets are reacting as if the most likely scenario — indeed the inevitable scenario — is Pale Horseman: I am Death. This actually is the least likely scenario. .........

the most likely scenario is a more extreme version of Take Two Aspirin and Call Me in the Morning. COVID-19 will be like the common cold, only worse.

......... This would be expensive for business and would require governmental support for businesses that are increasingly paying absent workers. And we are going to require increased public health spending, so that every­one, insured or not, legal resident or not, can have safe and anonymous testing for COVID-19. ........

Any attempt to limit testing so that only insured legal residents could be tested would make the virus impossible to control.

....... If you are light in equities now or have available cash, it might be a reasonable time to invest. But you need to be patient, since recovery will not be immediate. Do not invest money you will need soon. ......

Don’t panic. And remember to wash your hands.



COVID-19 Pandemic: What Will the Next Six Months Bring? the markets have been reacting to uncertainty rather than to expectations. .......

We’ve never faced a threat like the coronavirus pandemic, and governments have never tried to implement the same set of responses before.

.......... In the absence of vaccines and medications, the most promising way to limit the damage is to slow the spread of the virus, mostly through voluntary social distancing. ....... social distancing and shutting down vast segments of the economy may be the only way to slow the spread. .......

We’ve never had a self-imposed, instant and long-lasting recession before.

.........

War Against an Invisible Enemy

.......... We would see enormous income taxes on the truly wealthy, as we have seen in times of national crisis before, though they may never need to approach the 94% top marginal rate of 1944. ...... Revenues are used to support small business owners and their employees, providing basic income and ensuring individual survival. We develop safe door-to-door delivery, which enables small stores and restaurants to keep operating. The bottom does not fall out of the economy, and the middle class does not become alienated, to the extent that they did in Europe in the 1930s, which accelerated the growth of fascism. ........... We are a more ethnically and economically diverse nation today, and political divisions are worse than they have been at any time since the Civil War.



What the COVID-19 Curve Can Teach Us about Climate Change the pandemic offers an opportunity to increase people’s awareness of another major global risk. ......... In examining the exponential growth curve of COVID-19, Kunreuther realized there is a teachable moment about the dangers of climate change. ....... Like the person-to-person transmission of coronavirus, climate change is happening in smaller increments that can be easy to ignore until the cumulative effects can be measured: a rise in average yearly temperatures, melting glaciers, more destructive hurricanes, more intense wildfires, droughts, species extinction — the list goes on. ........

“Aside from the coronavirus pandemic, the biggest, most destructive exponential growth processes that we must grapple with today are those associated with global climate change.”

.......... the human mind “doesn’t easily grasp the explosive nature of exponential growth.” ....... As with the coronavirus, we need to anticipate the climate crisis and act quickly and aggressively to minimize further damages before they overwhelm us. ......... In 1958, the federal government measured damaging carbon dioxide emissions at 315 parts per million (ppm). By February 2020, that number had risen by 31% to 414 ppm. .........

The time to flatten the curve on climate change is now

....... But it’s challenging to shake citizens and policymakers out of complacency. That’s evident in the early attitudes toward coronavirus. ........ it’s imperative that everyone recognize the “social responsibility” in preventing disasters, whether the next pandemic or the existential threat of climate change. .... the world must turn its attention to reducing CO2 emissions and stopping the further exponential havoc that climate change will wreak, far sooner than we expect.”



Coronavirus: 68 per cent of cases confirmed in China in past eight days had no symptoms
As other economies panic over Covid-19, China can bide its time and stimulate its way to the future why the calmness? First, China didn’t see a near-collapse of its equity market, an evaporation of liquidity in its money and credit markets, or a plunge in oil prices that threatened to wipe out its shale gas industry. The resiliency of its capital markets could have removed the urgency of a large policy response aimed at shoring up market confidence, as was the case in the United States and Europe. ........ the Chinese economy has already hit rock bottom and is starting to bounce back, while most developed economies are still in free fall. .......... China has suffered a great deal because of side effects of its previous all-out stimulus : rising debt, mounting overcapacity and decelerating growth over the past decade. The scars of that experience might have made Beijing more cautious about taking a “whatever it takes” approach again. ....... the economy has yet to fully resume. Policy stimulus is less effective when the economy is running below its normal capacity. ........ infrastructure investment is quite effective as a tool for spurring growth and generates results straight away, unlike tax cuts or cash handouts that could increase savings more than spending. ..........

focus on new infrastructure, including 5G, big data, artificial intelligence, smart cities, and of course, health care equipment

... they can also lay the groundwork for the next phase of China’s economic upgrade.

Coronavirus: Japan’s major cities go quiet after state of emergency declared
Hong Kong’s paltry coronavirus relief is cold comfort to the jobless and needy If officials think that with a HK$10,000 cash handout, they have done their duty, they are sadly mistaken. When bad times hit, the poor are hit the hardest, and many are now in dire straits, with no social safety net to keep them afloat
Coronavirus: Bangkok’s lockdown, curfew leave vulnerable Thai residents struggling

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Coronavirus News (35)

Chaos rocks Trump White House on virus' most tragic day The chaos and confusion rocking President Donald Trump's administration on the most tragic day yet of the coronavirus pandemic was exceptional even by his own standards......... Trump set out Tuesday to cement his image of a wartime leader facing down an "invisible enemy" at a dark moment as the country waits for the virus to peak and with the economy languishing in suspended animation........... "What we have is a plague, and we're seeing light at the end of the tunnel," the President said, on a day when a record number of Americans succumbed to the wicked respiratory disease. ......... an already impeached President is using the cover of the worst domestic crisis since World War II to further erode constraints on his power. ...... Trump insisted he hadn't seen January memos by a top White House official warning about the pandemic at the same time the President was dismissing it as a threat. ........ He also announced he was placing a "very powerful hold" on funding for the World Health Organization, even though it correctly identified the scale of the virus and he didn't. .......

the sense of farce

Trump's top economic adviser Larry Kudlow admitted that a small business rescue program was off to "a bad start" after recipients struggled to register funds, only for the President to celebrate the program's roaring success -- and to credit his daughter Ivanka with personally creating 15 million jobs. ..... he lashed out at mail-in voting, making claims about fraud that don't square with the facts, even though he recently cast such a ballot himself. ........ A majority of Americans -- 55% -- now say the federal government has done a poor job preventing the spread of the disease in the United States, up eight points in about a week. And 52% say they disapprove of the way Trump is handling the outbreak. As usual, assessments of Trump break on partisan lines. Some 80% of Republicans say the federal government has done a good job, and Trump's approval rating is steady at 44%. ........ the second stage of the national effort -- reopening the economy and keeping a second wave of infections at bay -- will require focused and subtle leadership that can win the confidence of the nation. ....... Trump had already warned he will ignore a provision in the bill requiring the special inspector general to report to Congress on the handling of the funds. ....... a top economic official, Peter Navarro, had written a memo to the President in January warning coronavirus could become a "full blown pandemic" causing trillions of dollars in economic damage and risking the health of millions of Americans. ........ The WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International concern on January 30 after sending a team to Wuhan and to meet Chinese leaders in Beijing...... On the same day, at a rally in Michigan, the President said of the virus, "We think we have it very well under control." ....... But on Tuesday, the President lashed out at the global health body, claiming it had underplayed the threat of the virus and that he had got it right......... Given the President's long timeline of false statements and predictions, that must go down as one of the most audacious comments of his presidency. It was also reflective of

his own tendency to nominate an enemy and accuse it of the very transgression that he is accused of perpetrating

.

'It's a racial justice issue': Black Americans are dying in greater numbers from Covid-19
Coronavirus: Boris Johnson spends night in intensive care after symptoms worsen He was moved as a precaution so he could be close to a ventilator - which takes over the body's breathing process ....... "I hope people who may have wandered out the other day and decided they can sit around having barbecues will really think about this carefully and recognise this is serious...."If the most powerful man in Britain can come down with this, so can you"...... Mr Johnson was initially taken to hospital for tests after announcing 11 days ago that he had coronavirus. His symptoms included a high temperature and a cough. ....... Around two-thirds of patients admitted to intensive care with Covid-19 will need sedation and ventilation within 24 hours of arriving.
4 Behaviors That Help Leaders Manage a Crisis

They must decide with speed over precision, adapt boldly, reliably deliver, and engage for impact.

....... During a crisis, cognitive overload looms; information is incomplete, interests and priorities may clash, and emotions and anxieties run high. Analysis paralysis can easily result, exacerbated by the natural tendency of matrixed organizations to build consensus. ......... Embrace action, and don’t punish mistakes. Missteps will happen, but our research indicates that failing to act is much worse. ......... think internal wikis that capture issues, solutions, innovations, and best practices. Effective leaders extend their antennae across all the ecosystems in which they operate. ........ Keep mind and body in fighting shape. To reliably deliver, leaders must maintain their equanimity even when others are losing their heads. Establish a routine of self-care: a healthy diet, exercise, meditation, or whatever works best for you. Stock up on energy, emotional reserves, and coping mechanisms. ........ One leader we know conducts 30-minute “wind down” sessions with direct reports each Friday afternoon via Zoom. People share their states of mind along with the week’s highlights and low points......... celebrate your daily (often unsung) heroes. Simply staying productive in these times is heroic.

ESSENTIAL WORKERS WOULD GET UP TO $25,000 BOOST UNDER SENATE DEMOCRATS' NEW 'HEROES FUND' STIMULUS
The Supreme Court is tipping the scales toward Trump's reelection
China's Wuhan ends its coronavirus lockdown but elsewhere one begins China’s new coronavirus cases doubled on Tuesday as the number of infected travellers from overseas surged, while new asymptomatic infections more than quadrupled..... To stem infections from outside its borders, China has slashed the number of international flights and denied entry to virtually all foreigners. It also started testing all international arrivals for the virus this month.

Euro zone fails to reach a deal on new coronavirus stimulus after 16 hours of talks
Coronavirus: EU top scientist forced out in political row
Hong Kong extends social distancing restrictions to contain coronavirus
GM to supply 30,000 ventilators to national stockpile for nearly $490M
Oklahoma State coach says 'a lot of' his players can fight off coronavirus

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