Saturday, April 04, 2020

Coronavirus News (28)

Stretching the International Order to Its Breaking Point The greatest error that geopolitical analysts can make may be believing that the crisis will be over in three to four months. ........ COVID-19 could be with us in one way or another until a vaccine comes on the market or herd immunity is achieved—either of which could take 12 to 18 months ....... Even after a vaccine is available, life will not go back to normal. COVID-19 was not a black swan and will not be the last pandemic. A nervous world will be permanently changed. ........ American policy makers also underestimated the financial crisis of 2007–09, when they opted to let Lehman Brothers fail in September 2008 on the mistaken assumption that the decision would not trigger the collapse of other companies. European officials thought that the crisis had been made in the United States and would not affect global financial markets, and dismissed any concern that the euro zone may have its own vulnerabilities. ........

in a long crisis, countries will emerge profoundly changed. No one knows how exactly

....... The recession will look more like an L or W shape than a V. ..... COVID-19 could end globalization as we know it, particularly if the pandemic is prolonged. ....... “an assault on globalization” from multiple sources—the financial crisis, U.S.-China competition, climate-change activists pushing for people to buy local. COVID-19 piles on the pressure. Countries will be wary of outsourcing crucial medical supplies and pharmaceuticals to other countries. Supply chains more generally will be disrupted and will be hard to repair. .........

leaders in Israel have empowered Shin Bet, the country’s internal security service, to use cellphone location data to track Israeli citizens during the outbreak.

...... A long crisis will not discriminate and will damage all of the world’s power and regions ......... COVID-19 is likely to be a strategic setback for China, particularly in its efforts to make inroads into Europe and other democracies. ...... The CCP is now trying to limit the damage of its errors by providing assistance to other countries in the form of face masks, respirators, and other supplies. Many see this aid as an act of confidence, but it might be evidence that the regime feels vulnerable and fragile. ........ If the crisis continues for 12 to 18 months, the virus will likely return to China, with all of the risks that poses for the regime. ...... The virus has decimated parts of the Iranian elite and spread from there to ravage much of the region. The Iranian regime appears incredibly fragile, but if the government falls, no one knows what comes next, given the lack of any organized opposition within the country. ...... After a long crisis, much of the Middle East will consist of zombie governments that are widely perceived as ineffective. ......... the crisis will be “transformative.” ........ COVID-19 is a disaster for Americans. ...... President Trump is singularly ill-equipped to handle the pandemic. .......... In a long crisis, many people will die needlessly and the financial cost will be in the many trillions of dollars. The world has lost whatever confidence remained in the ability of Trump’s America to take charge. ....... Leaders have watched in horror as the administration focused the bulk of its diplomatic efforts on renaming the virus. If Trump is reelected—and his polling numbers suggest he has benefited politically from the pandemic so far—substantial international cooperation is unlikely after the crisis ends and the recovery begins. Each country will go its own way. .....

the United States is seen as a warning—an example, along with Brazil, of how a populist government is incapable of handling this crisis.

........ the only countries who have emerged from this crisis with their credibility intact so far are Asian democracies like South Korea and Taiwan. Germany is showing similar signs of competency, particularly in testing. .......

in 2019 the WHO published a plan to respond to a pandemic. Not a single major country followed the guidance.

...... The last global pandemic—the Spanish influenza of 1918–19—is not generally regarded as a driver of domestic and international politics over the 1920s and ’30s, likely because the world was already broken by World War I and less integrated than it is now.

Never before has a single event upended everyone’s lives simultaneously and so suddenly.



Why these 8 Republican governors are holding out on statewide stay-at-home orders In doing so, they've collectively ignored the stay-at-home pleas of Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, who said in a CNN interview: "If you look at what's going on in this country, I just don't understand why we're not doing that." ......

Absent a nationwide order, which President Donald Trump once again on Friday declined to give

....... "States that we are talking about are not in jeopardy." ....... It's not as though the novel coronavirus hasn't touched each of their states in some way. ....... In South Dakota, a Republican state lawmaker was among the first in the state to test positive, followed soon after by his wife, brother and sister-in-law. His 51-year-old niece has died of Covid-19, family members told reporters, with several others experiencing symptoms. ...... "The people themselves are primarily responsible for their safety." She also pointed to the state and national constitutions that "prevent us from taking draconian measures much like the Chinese government has done." ....... In Iowa on Friday, a statewide board of medicine voted unanimously to recommend a so-called shelter-in-place order to limit the movements of residents to essential work and travel. ....... She pushed back on Fauci's remark that questioned why all states have not issued stay-at-home orders. .... "I would say that maybe he doesn't have all the information," Reynolds told reporters. "You can't just look at a map and assume no action has been taken." ....... He pointed to Dr. James Lawler, co-director of the University of Nebraska Medical Center's Global Center for Health Security, who said people should spend more time heeding the warnings of social distancing and handwashing, rather than focusing on semantics of a statewide order. ........ if Nebraskans do "what we've already implemented and we do it well, I think we'll get much more bang for our buck than we would from going to a much more draconian posture." .......

Aides to several of the Republican governors said the only persuasion that was likely to move their positions was specific guidance from the President.

...... DeSantis said it was the President's alarm -- not warnings health officials had been making for weeks -- that finally persuaded him.



A German Exception? Why the Country’s Coronavirus Death Rate Is Low The pandemic has hit Germany hard, with more than 92,000 people infected. But the percentage of fatal cases has been remarkably low compared to those in many neighboring countries. ...... They take a blood test, looking for signs that a patient is about to go into a steep decline. They might suggest hospitalization, even to a patient who has only mild symptoms; the chances of surviving that decline are vastly improved by being in a hospital when it begins. ...... “There is this tipping point at the end of the first week,” said Prof. Hans-Georg Kräusslich, the head of virology at University Hospital in Heidelberg, one of Germany’s leading research hospitals. “If you are a person whose lungs might fail, that’s when you will start deteriorating.” ....... with 1,295 deaths, Germany’s fatality rate stood at 1.4 percent, compared with 12 percent in Italy, around 10 percent in Spain, France and Britain, 4 percent in China and 2.5 percent in the United States. Even South Korea, a model of flattening the curve, has a higher fatality rate, 1.7 percent. ........

“There has been talk of a German anomaly”

..... “It started as an epidemic of skiers” ...... Germany has been testing far more people than most nations. That means it catches more people with few or no symptoms, increasing the number of known cases, but not the number of fatalities. ...... early and widespread testing and treatment, plenty of intensive care beds and a trusted government whose social distancing guidelines are widely observed. ...... By the time Germany recorded its first case of Covid-19 in February, laboratories across the country had built up a stock of test kits. ...... By now, Germany is conducting around 350,000 coronavirus tests a week, far more than any other European country. ......

One key to ensuring broad-based testing is that patients pay nothing for it,

...... “A young person with no health insurance and an itchy throat is unlikely to go to the doctor and therefore risks infecting more people”.......... In most countries, including the United States, testing is largely limited to the sickest patients .... “We have so much capacity now we are accepting patients from Italy, Spain and France” ....... Beyond mass testing and the preparedness of the health care system, many also see Chancellor Angela Merkel’s leadership as one reason the fatality rate has been kept low. .....

Ms. Merkel has communicated clearly, calmly and regularly throughout the crisis

....... The chancellor’s approval ratings have soared. ....“Maybe our biggest strength in Germany,” said Professor Kräusslich, “is the rational decision-making at the highest level of government combined with the trust the government enjoys in the population.”

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo says state not ready for "high point," as coronavirus death toll rises New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said Saturday that more than 3,500 people in the state have died due to the coronavirus. More than 113,000 COVID-19 cases have been confirmed in the state, which is the U.S. epicenter of the outbreak. ...... New York has not yet reached its expected peak in the number of cases. "We're not at the apex," Cuomo said, adding that the state is "not yet ready for the high point."

at No comments:
Labels:

Friday, April 03, 2020

Coronavirus News (27)

China and Huawei propose reinvention of the internet New architecture would enable cutting-edge technologies but western countries fear more control for state-run internet services ....... China has suggested a radical change to the way the internet works to the UN, in a proposal that claims to enable cutting-edge technologies such as holograms and self-driving cars but which critics say will also bake authoritarianism into the architecture underpinning the web.  ....... The proposal has caused concerns among western countries including the UK, Sweden and the US, who believe the system would splinter the global internet and give state-run internet service providers granular control over citizens’ internet use. It has gained the support of Russia, and potentially Saudi Arabia ........ Huawei describes the existing internet infrastructure that underpins global networks — known as TCP/IP — as “unstable” and “vastly insufficient” to meet the requirements of the digital world by 2030, including self-driving cars, the ubiquitous internet of things and “holo-sense teleportation”. ....... “The research and innovation of New IP is open to scientists and engineers worldwide to participate in and contribute to” ...... New IP will enable “fine-grained controls in the foundations of the network” and that the Chinese approach “will lead to more centralised, top-down control of the internet and potentially even its users, with implications on security and human rights”. ...... TCP/IP is to the wired world what DNA is to the biological one ...... a more efficient address system is needed for emerging technologies. ...... New IP would provide this, allowing devices within the same network to communicate directly with each other without having to send information across the internet. ...... New IP would have something described as a “shut up command”, where a central point in the network could effectively cut off communication to or from a particular address, according to a source who was present. He described this feature as a “fundamental departure” from the current network model which acts as an “agnostic postman that simply moves boxes around”............. The quote 'one which is very free and open and . . . government hands-off “ is an invalid statement. We are being monitored by all the devices and by all the intelligence services of the great Empire. We have the largest prison camp in the world. We don't have voting rights for those incarcerated. They have no voice - none at all while, during the court hearings and none during incarceration and none after releasing to the society back to suffer. A large number of eligible voters are 'unregistered' and ineligible to vote . We have 800 or so military bases ruling over the world - the people's lives, their communications, their movements are controlled - in short we regulate the world. We have the exclusive super power tools - the Military and the Monetary powers to conduct Wars. So even now the people are not free; the essential economic freedom is constricted. ....... Internet is a top down structure. Now controlled by the US. In the new proposal a kind of local autonomy is envisaged for local coverage. ........ Don't give sainthood to the Western Democracies, herein ruling elites are far removed from the people. I say in China meritocracy dominates over Democracy, but humanity is not lost. For the common folks in both Nations lives are of the same nature. ......... Yes internet has to evolve but definitely not by the Chinese who have practiced genocide with its people ( famine) and are perfecting the art of citizen control. ...... Oh please, all of this concern for privacy of citizens' internet use was revealed to be a thorough sham by Assange, Snowden et. al. They exposed what the NSA and GCHQ were up to while western governments hid behind this sham of privacy rights and other feel good what not.... At least with the Chinese, its unambiguous that one is being surveilled. I much prefer that to western subterfuge. ........

How to get stimulus money direct deposits will begin by April 17 and checks will start being mailed in three weeks. ....... The IRS announced it will create an online portal for people to update or input their direct deposit details. ....... freelancers, sole proprietors and gig workers are all eligible for the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. ....... The disaster loans, which are for those in a state that has declared a state of emergency, have a 3.75% interest rate for businesses and 2.75% rate for nonprofits and will have to be paid back. If you apply for these loans, you are eligible to apply for a $10,000 grant that you would receive three days after applying. ...... Business owners and sole proprietors can begin applying for the PPP loans on April 3, and freelancers and individual contractors can apply on April 10 ...... PPP loans can be forgiven if the funds are used for payroll expenses, mortgage payments, or rent and utility costs within eight weeks of receiving the loan. ...... Part-time workers or those who are self-employed, including gig workers, contractors and freelancers, are now eligible to apply for unemployment benefits. ....... The amount each person receives will depend upon which state they live in, but those who apply and receive benefits should expect $600 on top of what their state provides until July 31. ...... Workers can receive payments for up to 39 weeks.



Coronavirus: Chinese academics’ open letter urges Beijing, Washington to come together to beat Covid-19 The open letter was the idea of Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, who said its aim was not only to show the willingness of China’s intellectual elite to promote solidarity and reduce tensions, but to make clear that the priority right now was saving lives. .......

described the Covid-19 pandemic as a “global issue that overrides geopolitics concerns”.



China’s coronavirus ‘victory’ and Britain’s threat of a ‘reckoning’ show two countries out of touch with the post-Covid-19 future the Communist Party has declared “victory” over the virus, and bearing news that the war is not actually won could be a sure path to demotion. ........ a “senior [UK] government source” claiming that after the coronavirus crisis was over, China would face a “reckoning” and might become a “pariah state”. ....... wanted to go “back to the diplomatic drawing board” with Beijing when the crisis was over. ...... Britain is angry with China in a way that would have seemed bizarre just two months ago, when Johnson risked the wrath of Donald Trump by allowing Huawei to bid to provide elements of Britain’s 5G network. ......

both China’s virus “victory” and Britain’s threat of a reckoning suggest something more ominous: a lack of reality about the geopolitical future once the disease really has retreated.

....... The virus has devastated the world economy for the immediate future, and this creates a major issue for Brexit Britain, still due to leave the structures of the EU single market on December 31 with no idea what trading arrangements it will have with the rest of Europe or the rest of the world. ...... The model of “hard Brexit” pursued by the Johnson administration is based on the idea that the UK would be entirely separate from any of the world’s largest trading blocs, but simultaneously part of a network of free-trade agreements policed by the World Trade Organisation. ..... Rage against China is perhaps an understandable reaction in the circumstances. But it is a reaction that is unsupported by strategy. ........ the EU, the international entity with the most interest in raising such issues on the international stage, but with which the British government is still in a form of Cold War, even during the virus crisis. ...... any “reckoning” makes the likelihood of opening China’s markets, one of the prizes hinted at by Brexiteers for the past four years, much harder to achieve. ..... In a strange way, Britain and China find themselves in a geopolitically similar position. Both are countries which are globally admired for aspects of what they do. But they are both a long way from the sweet spot that would give them a globally plausible voice when the virus crisis is over.

at No comments:
Labels:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)