Thursday, May 30, 2019

Trump And Xi Should Cut A Deal In Japan



The two should pull back a little and cut a deal. Escalating the trade war will bring bad news all around.

A trade deal where the tariffs simply stay in place is no trade deal at all.

On the other hand, China should give credible assurances on some much-needed reforms. These are reforms that it would want to carry out anyways. Some of the state-run companies in China are capital sinkholes. Reform would only add to China's competitiveness.

The US buying or not buying 5G equipment from Huawei is a decision any customer can make. But to go after Huawei's supply chain puts companies like Apple at grave risk. 5G will give Global South the infrastructure that will transform countries. The US better not mess that up.

A trade deal would be one where both countries agreed to pull back on all tariffs, take their hands off high-tech supply chains, and China commits to some major structural reforms to its economy, to be subjected to review every two years or so.

I am for talks in general. I supported the idea of Donald Trump meeting Kim of North Korea. I support the idea of Trump meeting the Iranian leader. On the idea of holding talks, I agree with Trump. Leaders should talk to each other in person instead of posturing and signaling through media.

If China offers to buy just a few more bags of soybeans, there will be no deal. If the US insists the tariffs must stay in place to ensure China delivers on its promises, there will be no deal.

Investors grow anxious over Trump-Xi G20 meeting US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have downplayed the chances of a breakthrough in talks ..... Bond yields have already plummeted, stock prices have fallen and the Vix index of market volatility has risen as hopes of a quick end to the dispute have been dashed. Investors are now using derivatives markets to position themselves for further turbulence at the two-day summit......The increased investor caution comes as 10-year US Treasury yields plunged to their lowest level in 20 months on Wednesday as fears over slowing global growth have intensified after trade talks between the US and China broke up in acrimony this month, leading to an escalation of tariffs....... That encounter is at most expected to result in a new truce, setting the stage for a further round of negotiations. Mr Trump this week said the US was “not ready” for a deal at this stage....... the increased trading activity around the meeting could come both from investors seeking protection from a sharp downturn in stock prices ..... The Vix index — sometimes called Wall Street’s fear gauge .... The Vix level implied by prices of options expiring between June 28 and the following Friday currently stands at 17.6, compared with just 14.4 for the week after and 14.7 earlier in the month
A Political Economist on How China Sees Trump’s Trade War Authoritarian regimes, because they’re not elected, can, in theory, impose a great deal of hardship on their population without suffering political repercussions. ....... Both leaders see themselves as uniquely capable of reviving greatness in their respective countries. For Trump it may be partly rhetoric and partly politics, but, I think for Xi Jinping, also partly politics—he needed to innovate a new ideology that was very different from his predecessors’ ideologies, so he picked national greatness. ....... clearly Xi Jinping would like China to continue on this trajectory of economic growth ..... of course, in the official media they’re beginning to try to portray this scenario where China is going to suffer economic hardship to fight this war with the U.S. I just don’t believe it. I think it’s propaganda. ........ China suffers from a deficit of true expertise about the U.S. ....... The problem faced by Xi is the same one that is faced by Trump, which is that they’re not economic experts. ...... If one is given great advantages in various commercial deals, it’s not difficult to get rich...... the concentration camps in Xinjiang really have inaugurated a new era for Chinese repression of its population. And, indeed, we have not seen such a large-scale mass internment since the Mao period, when Mao put millions of Chinese Communist Party members in labor camps and reëducation camps. This is targeted toward a particular ethnic group...... In Xinjiang, there were no active insurgencies; there were isolated terrorist incidents. I don’t know why the leadership approved such an unnecessary step..... there is some kind of information asymmetry. You have these interest groups within the government—high terrorism officials, officials in Xinjiang—who gain enormously from these very extreme measures, because it costs billions and billions of dollars to build up these camps. Somebody got these contracts.
Trump says he will meet China's Xi at G20 next month US president also says he'll meet Russia's Putin, but Kremlin says no such arrangements have been made so far...... "China hopes the US will get back to the right track of bilateral trade and economic consultations and meet with China halfway." ...... The prospect that the US and China were spiralling into a no-holds-barred dispute that could derail the global economy has rattled investors and led to a sharp selloff on equities markets in the past week.



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China In Latin America

China in Latin America: partner or predator? Whether they're new colonisers or a vital source of cash and technology, the jury is out on Beijing's investment in the region – but one thing is certain, the US will not relinquish its control without a fight ...... the difference between the long-standing American influence and the growing Chinese role is not so black and white. ...... The Middle Kingdom may be seen as a 21st century coloniser, but it has also presented alternative investment options. ........ The grievances and wounds created by hundreds of years of Spanish and Portuguese rule are today still present in the collective psyche, despite formal foreign control ending more than a century ago. ...... The US then quickly became the hegemonic power, but its strategic control has been hard to sustain over the past two decades, partly because of China, whose growing economy has driven up demand for commodities. ........ Trade between China and Latin America has surged, from US$12 billion in 2000 to almost US$306 billion last year, and China has become a major investor. The value of its loans – mostly for energy and infrastructure projects – has surpassed financing from the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank. ....... Panama and the Dominican Republic, have severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan ....... Ecuador, a country of more than 16 million which some say has been a laboratory for Sino-Latin American investment ........ Dams and hydroelectric power plants are being built by Chinese companies in the Amazon rainforest and Patagonia. Thousands of kilometres of rail track are being laid in Brazil, Peru and Venezuela. China and Argentina are negotiating over construction of a US$8 billion nuclear facility in the province of Buenos Aires. ....... “We have found most projects in Latin America have faced a local backlash because of environmental concerns about pollution and harm to residents and livelihoods,” Argentinian scholar Ariel Armony and Mexico-based researcher Enrique Dussel Peters wrote ....... questions whether the region’s role in Chinese empire building is “that different to being part of the ‘gringo’ empire” – referring to the US. ...... Chinese companies have made little effort to interact with their hosts. ...... “For Chinese companies, the community is not a valid interlocutor, only the government is. The difference is that gringo imperialism deals with civil society, the Chinese don’t … They don’t try to understand where they are,” Viola says. “And they consider that social peace is not their problem.” ....... these companies do not have high environmental standards and labour rights are not observed. “They follow a corrupt pattern … and the logic of ‘Chinese for Chinese’ prevails.” ...... “Wherever China invests, they make it very Chinese. They don’t consider the local culture. For example, they bring Chinese chefs to cook on their settlement. They separate or segregate the workers – like there’s a Chinese camp and local camp. I think China has a lot do in this regard.” ...... a lack of communication is a major issue. ..... “The investment fills a crucial gap in infrastructure needed for the region while establishing a new ally that will help further their economies and standing on the global stage” ....... “China is one of the few countries in the world that can do the whole package. They can finance you and build the project for you. Not many countries can do that. In that sense it’s good because they can reduce the costs, especially for emerging countries” ....... “If you go to the IMF [International Monetary Fund] or the World Bank, they have their conditions. They lend you a billion dollars and you still have to contract with their partners. China does the same, but there’s a huge difference,” Lee says. “They don’t have this conditionality problem – they don’t tell you: ‘Change your political economy to make it look more neoliberal or something that resembles the Washington consensus.’ In that sense, it’s a step forward, because there are no political conditions for those loans.” ........ US officials are largely powerless to prevent the shift to Chinese financing. .......... Although US officials are “sounding increasingly menacing vis-à-vis the Chinese ‘threat’ … there is little they can really do to halt China’s inexorable advance” ....... Ninety per cent positive and only 10 per cent negative – that is Cui’s verdict on China’s investments in Latin America. ....... “It is true some have made mistakes and they have their flaws … It will take some time for them to become aware of the need to protect the environment, follow local laws and interact with communities. But they are learning and their operations are improving ... It’s not fair to ignore the positive side of it.”...... China has treated Latin American countries as equal partners and “does not meddle in their internal politics or try to control the local economy”. ......... “It’s a better option in the Ecuadorean context over North American interference,” he says. “Yes, we are in debt, but there is technological development and it’s still cheaper than if we had to deal with international institutions.” ........ Many of the failures involved in Chinese projects are actually the responsibility of local authorities, he argues. “Building schools and community centres is the government’s responsibility ... The obligation of the companies is to pay their taxes, and the government should do the rest.” ...... “many non-governmental organisations here have a very negative view of Chinese investment. They see these investments as predatory. And that has a lot to do with a Eurocentric vision that is still very ingrained in Latin America,” he says. “Here, the ideal is still the Western world.” ....... But for people such as Taish Mercedes, 65, part of the Shuar minority, who are indigenous to Ecuador and Peru, there is little difference between Chinese, American or any other foreign source of investment....... Her home was bulldozed by the local government to make way for a Chinese-backed mining project in the Ecuadorean region of the Amazon basin......... “Our motherland can provide us with everything. That is our way of life. But the colonisers came and taught people how to live with money. Many became greedy,” she says, describing the impact of the Spanish......... “Now the Chinese are the new colonisers – just like the ones before. They are ruining the harmony of our land.”



How Chinese projects are tearing communities in Ecuador apart Investments from Beijing have brought infrastructure and jobs – but they have also seen communities forced off their land as well as the murder of a strident critic. To some Ecuadoreans, the social and environmental impact is too high a cost ...... The biodiversity that makes it stand out, some fear, may soon be gone thanks to the country’s largest mine. ....... Out of 15 countries in Latin America that have received Chinese funding, Ecuador is among the top three borrowers, with a total of 15 loans estimated at US$18.4 billion........ The mine covers some 10,000 hectares, and the Ministry of Mining calculates it will produce 3.18 million tonnes of copper, 843.21 tonnes of silver and 105.44 tonnes of gold. ...... The region’s mountains are being carved up, there is ongoing deforestation and rivers are being discoloured by run-off from the mine. .......... “As you can see, I am here alone after they destroyed the community,” he says, referring to San Marcos, whose residents had their land seized by the government. “I rarely have visitors. I spend eight or 15 days without seeing people. Living alone is bad.” ...... What we asked was to be relocated to similar areas. But instead [EcuaCorriente] went there, offered some money [to the people in the area as compensation for their land] and that was it ...... “Many of us don’t care about money,” Uyuguari insists. “What we care about is to have a dignified house and land to work on. They don’t understand this and, unfortunately, the judiciary here in Ecuador is all in favour of the big companies. The policies don’t take into consideration campesinos like myself.” ....... The contract between the Ecuadorean government and Chinese firm EcuaCorriente was signed in 2012, and the construction of the mine began three years later. Many remember the optimism that followed. There were promises of new roads, schools and hospitals. ............ Tundayme residents also say there is a stark cultural gap between locals and Chinese workers that is hard to overcome, and interactions between the two are limited due to the language barrier. ....... “When the Canadians were here it wasn’t good, but there was some equality,” said a 30-year-old former worker at the mine. “They spoke more Spanish and they ate our local food.” ........... “I am not against the mine,” the worker says, noting its importance for the region. “But many things have not been done properly. We Ecuadoreans are barely benefiting from this project.” ....... the mine may not be the best solution for the region, Quinatoa says “given our local economy, it’s the best at the moment”....... The environmental group Amazon Watch estimates that total deforestation in the region affected by the mine from 2010 to the end of 2017 was 1,307 hectares. ...... “The construction method of the dams that [EcuaCorriente] is building at the Mirador mine is so risky that its construction is illegal in Chile and, a few weeks ago, was declared illegal in Brazil,” Prieto says. The case is now being dealt with by Ecuador’s Constitutional Court............ “The fact that José Tendetza was killed, that this case remains unpunished and that his family was silenced and isolated is profoundly racist, classist and violent.”



The Ecuadorean resistance From farmers who say the water in their land has been drained to indigenous groups on the verge of disappearing, the effects of Chinese-run projects are rippling across the country – and Ecuadoreans are making their displeasure felt ........ Observers say many of these investments got off the ground after faulty or non-existent consultations. Once they are set up, they are protected by opacity – with reports such as environmental studies often kept hidden from the public – and high security measures. ........ In August 2016, hundreds of police officers and soldiers entered the parish of Santiago de Panantza, in the province of Morona Santiago, and evicted a small Shuar community of eight families – about 32 people – known as Nankints to make way for the mine. ...... public security forces have been called to protect international investments during protests; laws and regulations have been bent to suit new economic policies; and foreign investments are often prioritised over traditional livelihoods and the environment. ....... In 2018, the country produced about 517,000 barrels a day of crude oil – its top export. ..... According to the environmental group Amazon Watch, the park contains more endemic tree species in one hectare than all of the United States and Canada combined. It is also home to the Waorani indigenous people, and two nomadic Waorani clans – the Tagaeri and Taromenane – who live there in voluntary isolation. ........ Up north, in the Amazon basin, the giant dam known as Coca Codo Sinclair – financed and erected by the state-owned Chinese Sinohydro Corporation – had a grand opening in 2016, attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping and then Ecuadorean president Rafael Correa. ...... communities living near the project “were left weakened”: “What is happening in these places is that people feel they have little say over their own territory.” ..... The US$90 million project was expected to bring in more than US$300 million for the Ecuadorean government over that period, and create hundreds of jobs....... “We used to support the mine. I think most of us only became aware of its impacts in 2017,” she says. “We realised that the water was drying up.” ...... Violent confrontations have occurred between authorities and locals – and even between communities who have differing opinions on the project. ...... Those against the mine welcomed a landmark decision last June, when a court ordered Ecuagoldmining to halt work because indigenous communities in the area had not been consulted......... A Chinese environmental lawyer, Jingjing Zhang, contributed to that victory. She testified to the court in Cuenca that China had ratified the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples in 2007, which meant it supports prior consultation and consent...... She also noted that Chinese enterprises abroad are bound by the laws and environmental regulations of the host country ....... She recalls the violence from last year, when there were clashes between residents from different villages, and between locals and authorities. “We are in danger and we don’t know what will happen. Virgin Mary help us! So much cruelty,” Urtado says.

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