Trump: Nominee?

I did not think for one second Trump was going to end up the nominee. I did not think he thought. I did not think he was serious. I still have my doubts. But people are saying otherwise.

Thoughts on the state of the GOP race -- and why I've become a lot less skeptical of Trump's chances: https://t.co/apm5unqN4h

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) January 21, 2016

One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump

the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump. ...... Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. ...... if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first .....

there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes.

...... Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him.

All I can see (and I have not been following closely at all) is that the race might get competitive.

When The Ocean Currents Of Global Finance Stop Moving

Money getting parked like this is a disservice. There is such need, in terms of Global South infrastructure, and clean energy. This is like the ocean currents stopped moving. Why will money not want to grow?

The missing $20 trillion

If you define a tax haven as a place that tries to attract non-resident funds by offering light regulation, low (or zero) taxation and secrecy, then the world has 50-60 such havens. These serve as domiciles for more than 2m companies and thousands of banks, funds and insurers. Nobody really knows how much money is stashed away: estimates vary from way below to way above $20 trillion. ..... Ugland House, a building in the Cayman Islands that is officially home to 18,000 companies ...... Delaware (population 917,092), which is home to 945,000 companies, many of which are dodgy shells. ..... Miami is a massive offshore banking centre, offering depositors from emerging markets the sort of protection from prying eyes that their home countries can no longer get away with. The City of London, which pioneered offshore currency trading in the 1950s, still specialises in helping non-residents get around the rules. British shell companies and limited-liability partnerships regularly crop up in criminal cases. London is no better than the Cayman Islands when it comes to controls against money laundering. Other European Union countries are global hubs for a different sort of tax avoidance: companies divert profits to brass-plate subsidiaries in low-tax Luxembourg, Ireland and the Netherlands. .......

America remains shamefully reluctant to share information with the Latin American countries whose citizens hold deposits in Miami.

....... Nor do corporate taxes raise much money: barely more than 2% of GDP (8.5% of tax revenue) in America and 2.7% in Britain. Abolishing corporate tax would create its own problems, as it would encourage rich people to turn themselves into companies. But a lower rate on a broader base, combined with vigilance by the tax authorities, would be more efficient and would probably raise more revenue: America, whose companies face one of the rich world’s highest corporate-tax rates on their worldwide income, also has some of the most energetic tax-avoiders. .....

Financial centres and incorporation hubs, from the City of London to Delaware, will fight any attempt to tighten their rules. But if politicians really want to tax the missing $20 trillion, that’s where they should start.