Modi: The Politician I Read Most About

Deng Xiaoping (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

English: Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, being escorted by United States Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld through an honour cordon and into the Pentagon. They met to discuss bilateral security issues including the war on terrorism: see DefenseLINK news photos. US Department of Defense (). Retrieved on . (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Narendra Modi has become the politician I read most about these days. Deep inside it is my suspicion that he might be India's Lee Kuan Yew, that he might be India's Deng Xiaoping. I need Modi to give India double digit growth rates, year in, year out, no dips, no recessions. Double digit is not eight per cent, not nine per cent. Double digit is 10% or more.

Culturally speaking I am an Indian. I am an Indian who grew up in Nepal. And I want Modi to succeed. I like his laser focus on the economy. I like his no nonsense attitude of management. I like his decisiveness.

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Modi Wave Or Pendulum Swing?

It is interesting to me that the non-Congress, non-BJP parties collectively got more votes than either the BJP or the Congress. What is even more interesting is that the BJP has grown largely at the expense of the Congress.

I think Modi has earned himself 10 years. But in a post-Modi scenario there is going to be room for the creation of a Third Front.

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Books In The Mail

I See Modi Doing Well

Flag of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a national political party in India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I see Modi doing well as Prime Minister. I see him giving a strong performance on infrastructure, and FDI. I see him managing the state apparatus well. If he won such a thumping majority based on promise, his majority in five years might be stronger, because it will be based on performance.

What are the political implications? The Congress will have an even harder time crossing the 50 mark in the Lok Sabha next time around. In five years the BJP might cross 300 on its own, and the NDA might cross 350. The message to the Congress is, abhi achhe deen nahin ane wale hain.

The BJP and the NDA mostly grew at the expense of the Congress. Between them the Congress and the BJP get about 50% of the votes. This time was no different. It is just that the pendulum swung much wider this time and the Congress got thrashed. So 50% of the people voted for neither the BJP nor the Congress. There is a message there. Should the Modi government tire or falter, it might be the Third Front, and not the Congress, that might step into the void.

Also, the Third Front parties can not wait for post-poll scenarios. If they are to be viable, they need a permanent structure. They got nothing right now.

This is the first time a Chief Minister has become Prime Minister in India. Now it is going to be that much harder for a non Chief Minister to get the top job in the future. That is bad news for Rahul.

Those who oppose Modi get to try their luck in the states. Modi got Delhi. And he will keep it for 10 years. During those 10 years his political competitors get to prove themselves in their respective states. That also applies to the Congress which still runs a healthy share of the states.

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Bihar: 150 JD(U), 70 RJD, 23 Congress

English: This map depicts regions of Uttar Pradesh: Upper Doab Middle Doab Lower Doab Rohilkhand Awadh Purvanchal Bundelkhand Baghelkhand (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

For the 2015 Bihar assembly elections, an alliance between the three parties would sweep Bihar. It might even beat the NDA tally of 2010. First, will these three even come together? Two, will the three agree to an arrangement where the JD(U) is the clear senior partner?

Political arithmetic would make a clear case for such an alliance. In Uttar Pradesh, a similar question arises, but there it is about the SP, the BSP and the Congress.

In Bihar it is easier because Nitish has strong development bonafides. In Uttar Pradesh Mulayam, Akhilesh or Mayawati can not make the same claim. Besides, the SP and the BSP have been strongly opposed to each other.

With a revived BJP, the party has a clear shot at forming the state government in Uttar Pradesh.

But this is too early to think in terms of state elections in Bihar. Right now I am paying attention to the Modi Sarkar unfolding. So far so good. He has impressed me on his way to power. I believe he will deliver. And if he does, he will return with a fatter majority in five years.

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Modi Getting Emotional

Nitish Will Bag 150 MLAs In 2015

That is my prediction.