Barack Obama's Third And Fourth Terms

"That Woman Deserves Her Revenge"

Hillary and Natalie (Photo credit: Dan Correia)

I was Barack Obama's first full time volunteer in all of New York City where literally every black politician except Bill Perkins was for Hillary. I was early and hard core. For me Hillary is about term limits. Barack Obama deserves a third and a fourth term, and that is where Hillary comes in as far as I am concerned.

Hillary will win big, it is because FDR's third victory was bigger than his first and second victories. The 2008 primary really is not over until Hillary becomes president because that primary had two winners, the first black president and the first woman president.

I have been ready for Hillary since 1991, although I don't see me actively campaigning. I did not in 2012. In 2007-08 it was a real struggle. 2012 was not a struggle, 2016 will be even less so. I am in coasting mode.

And, by the way, stop f________ with Indian diplomats.

Franklin D. Roosevelt 1932 presidential election

Roosevelt won 57% of the vote and carried all but six states. Historians and political scientists consider the 1932-36 elections a realigning election that created a new majority coalition for the Democrats, made up of organized labor, blacks, and ethnic Americans such as Italian-Americans, Polish-Americans and Jews. This transformed American politics and starting what is called the "New Deal Party System"

Landslide re-election, 1936

Roosevelt and Garner won 60.8% of the vote and carried every state except Maine and Vermont.[138] The New Deal Democrats won even larger majorities in Congress. Roosevelt was backed by a coalition of voters which included traditional Democrats across the country, small farmers, the "Solid South", Catholics, big city political machines, labor unions, northern African Americans, Jews, intellectuals and political liberals. This coalition, frequently referred to as the New Deal coalition, remained largely intact for the Democratic Party until the 1960s.

Election of 1940

FDR systematically undercut prominent Democrats who were angling for the nomination, including Vice President John Nance Garner[167] and two cabinet members, Secretary of State Cordell Hull and James Farley, Roosevelt's campaign manager in 1932 and 1936, the Postmaster General and the Democratic Party chairman. Roosevelt moved the convention to Chicago where he had strong support from the city machine (which controlled the auditorium sound system). At the convention the opposition was poorly organized, but Farley had packed the galleries. Roosevelt sent a message saying that he would not run unless he was drafted, and that the delegates were free to vote for anyone. The delegates were stunned; then the loudspeaker screamed "We want Roosevelt... The world wants Roosevelt!" The delegates went wild and he was nominated by 946 to 147 on the first ballot. The tactic employed by Roosevelt was not entirely successful, as his goal had been to be drafted by acclamation. ..... He won the 1940 election with 55% of the popular vote and 38 of the 48 states.

Election of 1944

Roosevelt replaced Wallace with Missouri Senator Harry S. Truman, best known for his battle against corruption and inefficiency in wartime spending. The Republicans nominated Thomas E. Dewey, the liberal governor of New York. The opposition lambasted FDR and his administration for domestic corruption, bureaucratic inefficiency, tolerance of Communism, and military blunders. Labor unions, which had grown rapidly in the war, threw their all-out support behind Roosevelt. In a relatively close 1944 election, Roosevelt and Truman won 53% of the vote and carried 36 states.

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Nitish Kumar

English: Nitish Kumar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Nitish Kumar: India’s Man from Hope?

Seven years later, over 70,000 criminals are behind bars. India’s most crime ridden, corrupt, and economically failing state is now one of the best governed and perhaps the most effective in fighting corruption...... Don’t be surprised if Nitish (as he is generally called), and not Modi, ends up becoming prime minister of India someday. ..... Modi's opponents are so numerous and strong that he may not be a viable Prime Minister. ..... Nitish, by comparison, has few detractors— other than the 70,000 criminals he helped to convict. Even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (the man he could replace) has praised the “…Nitish government in many areas, including administrative reforms.” Though Nitish’s JDU party is mostly limited to his home state of Bihar, its agenda cuts across caste and religion. ..... If Bihar’s chief minister ends up becoming prime minister, it will have been for two reasons: his accomplishments in a key rural state; and his ability to master the dynamics of India’s coalition, religion and caste-politics. ....... When Nitish took over, many had written-off Bihar as a failed state whose most prominent industry was kidnapping, and whose biggest export was people. ..... Bihar’s greatest revenues were their remittances. Elsewhere in India, politicians would run nativist campaigns against Bihari immigrants. ...... Worse than in almost any other state, Lalu tacitly allowed local criminals to run small, well-armed fiefdoms. ...... did not expect much of Nitish. Nitish was a former Lalu deputy who came from a different lower caste, and several candidates in his Janata Dal United (JDU) party had criminal backgrounds. “Even in defeat, Lalu’s logic lived on,” wrote Ed Luce. “I have little doubt that he will be back.” ...... Nitish’s combination of courage and fairness. Nitish overhauled his police force— recruiting younger officers, upgrading its equipment, and even pulling in the army reserve for a time. But what was most important— and difficult— was applying the law equally across caste and political lines. “The key,” Nitish told me, “was willpower and determination to be fair.” ...... Nitish worked with police and prosecutors to emphasize not just arrests, but open and expeditious trials. They convinced witnesses to testify, personally vouching for their safety. “What was important was to send a signal that [their] government was competent.” Bihar’s trial and conviction rates went from being among the worst in India, to right near the top. ...... Nitish demanded that all civil servants declare their assets each year, then posted those disclosures on the state’s website. ..... He then focused on the economy. In his first five years— from 2005-2009— the state grew on average at 11%. The state reported 14% growth in 2010-2011. ...... Per capita income was below $300/year. It has almost doubled in seven years, but is still under $500/year— less than a third that of Gujarat. ........ In a territory smaller than Arkansas, Bihar has thirty times the population. In other words, Bihar squeezes 100 million people— as many as all of rural America— into a state that is only about 250 miles across its mid-section. And though it is densely populated, it is dramatically rural. Nine out of ten Biharis live in the countryside; its biggest city, Patna, has only 5 million people. ...... His goal was to get them all paved, and to connect them with broadband wireless. ..... Better roads also made it easier for kids to get to school— which Nitish says is his passion ......... hired 150,000 new teachers. ........ “Women voted irrespective of caste for Nitish Kumar in 2009,” explained Amitabh Srivastava, a Bihar-based reporter for India Today. “Nitish created a caste-neutral constituency of women. That was his social and political breakthrough.” ........ migration is down 25%-30%, causing shortages and wage increases on construction worksites as far afield as Mumbai and Chennai ...... Nitish is extremely popular in Bihar. In 2010, in a four-party race, his party ran in coalition with the nationalist BJP. Together the two parties won a commanding 80% of the state assembly— with Nitish’s party getting the lion’s share. ....... Four of India’s most important states are now governed by local parties. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu together have a population just short of 500 million. Like Nitish’s, these local parties increasingly appeal across caste and religion to “All-India.” ........... The BJP ... across India the party still largely appeals to upper caste Hindus and urban dwellers. .... Parties such as Nitish’s JDU or Akilesh Yadev’s Socialists or Jayalalitha’s AIADMK that depend on Muslim support are less willing to let the BJP lead a national coalition. ...... his caste-neutral, religion-neutral appeal ..... these parties could form a new coalition that presents an “All-India” mosaic made up of many local colors.

Nitish Kumar launches food security law with 5 kg of rice, wheat priced at Rs 3, Rs 2
Lok Sabha elections: Nitish Kumar leads initiative to form ‘Third Front’
Does Nitish Kumar Need the B.J.P.?

Muslims make up 17 percent of the electorate in Bihar, and they voted overwhelmingly for Janata Dal (United) in the last state election in 2010.

A Person of the Year: Nitish Kumar

Driving through a maze-like slum in Patna in the thick of election campaigning last month, chief minister Nitish Kumar’s driver lost his way. He said he needed to stop to ask for directions to a particular colony....... “Don’t worry,” Kumar told him. “I have cycled through these lanes a thousand times in my younger days,” he told the driver while giving him directions to the venue.......... keenly understands the intricate socio-political alignments and aspirations of his people ..... rewrite the equations of identity politics in the state ...... “The most obvious trait of Nitish Kumar in his younger days was the simple manner in which he lived, sharing a one-room shelter with a friend in Patna, and the amount of tireless groundwork he used to do in his constituency” ......... Murders were routine affairs and kidnapping-for-ransom was a lucrative industry ‘growing’ at about 15% every year. Bihar was virtually at the bottom of every development ranking until Nitish Kumar took charge in 2005. ...... The state’s economy grew an average 11.35% each year between 2004 and 2009, compared with 3.5% in the prior five years. In the past five years, social spending in the state rose from 30.5% to 41% of overall expenditure. The administration built 2,400 km of roads the last year alone, compared with just 415 km in 2004. ....... In order to make it clear that he meant business, Nitish Kumar first cranked up the criminal justice system. According to one bureaucrat, it took only a one-line administrative order which said that every FIR had to result in a charge sheet within 90 days and the police officer had to appear before court whenever asked to. The result: 54,000 criminals convicted in the past five years. The number of murders reported has fallen by three percentage points between 2005 and 2008. ....... Nitish Kumar was born in Bakhtiyarpur district and graduated in electrical engineering from the Bihar College of Engineering. Kumar and Lalu Yadav started their political careers together during the Jayaprakash Narayan movement in 1973-74. While Yadav was known as the crowd-puller, Kumar was a deft communicator who could explain to outsiders what the movement was about. The anti-Congress JP movement was largely a backward-caste driven one. Yadav represented the Yadavs and Kumar was the face of the Kurmis, a landowning, backward- caste people. ......... Nitish Kumar had become the union minister of state for agriculture in the V.P. Singh government of 1989- 1990 and then union minister of railways in the A.B. Vajpayee Cabinet. ....... Yadav joined hands with the Congress and secured himself a cabinet berth heading the Railways Ministry. He engineered a turnaround so spectacular that it became a case study in business schools. However, many Railways insiders say that the credit must go to Kumar, who had preceded him in the ministry during the National Democratic Alliance government led by the BJP. ........... Officials say that the financial turnaround during the Yadav years was possible only due to the substantial work in improvement of railway lines and time-keeping of passenger trains that was done during the Kumar regime. ...... “The turnaround of the Railways was actually set in motion by Nitish Kumar who carried out substantial asset replacement which helped the succeeding Lalu administration move more goods on the track,” says R. Sivadasan, former member of the railway board. ...... One of the significant decisions that Kumar took soon after coming to power in Bihar in 2005 was to reserve half of the seats in Panchayats for women. ...... “Kumar fought for reservation for women even though Sharad Yadav lobbied against it in Parliament. This was a huge factor in getting votes across caste lines. He faced a lot of revolt within the party on this. But he stood his ground and he acted as if Sharad Yadav’s views were personal” ....... close to 12 lakh students have been gifted bicycles. ....... 10% more women turned up at polling booths ..... hard-nosed identity politics. ....... A state commission constituted to identify sub-castes for targeting government help, recommended 21 out of 22 sub-castes to be classified as Mahadalits. The Dussadhs also known as Paswans, led by Ram Vilas Paswan, who form 31% of the 1.3 crore scheduled caste population in Bihar, were left out of that list. However, the government said that all the benefits given to Mahadalits will also be available to the landless Dussadhs but denied to the creamy layer of the community. It won Kumar the trust of a large section of the low-caste population. ....... His most formidable political achievement, however, was the manner in which he managed to wrest Muslim votes from Lalu Prasad Yadav. ....... “Nitish Kumar is one of the finest problem solvers in the country. Lalu commanded around 27% of the votes through his Muslim- Yadav combination. Nitish broke the pattern very intelligently,” says Ali Anwar of the All India Pasmanda Muslims Mahaz, which played a significant role in swinging the Muslim votes in Nitish’s favour. .... The Pasmanda Muslims are considered to be lower caste and account for close to 80% of the Muslim vote in the state. It was a political balancing act of considerable finesse as Kumar’s alliance partner is the BJP. He let it be known widely that the alliance was merely for the numbers and he would keep the BJP and its agenda at bay. The message was loud and clear when he made it known that he would not let BJP leader and Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi campaign in his state. ................ “Nitish took up our cause for Scheduled Caste status for Dalit Muslims and Dalit Christians in Parliament. He did this despite being supported by the Bharatiya Janata Party. In fact he was opposed by the BJP on the floor of the house. But he stood his ground,” says Anwar. ........ expediting the inquiry into the Bhagalpur riots of 1989 which led to the conviction of 14 people in the case that involved the massacre of 116 people, including women and children. Many of the accused in the case belonged to the Yadav caste which was thought to be a reason for the lack of enthusiasm on the part of Lalu Yadav to get the case going. ......... He has brought in a law to strip officials off their assets if they are found to be disproportionate to their income. He is also planning legislation to make government services a citizen’s right. ...... Only Bengal and Kerala have managed to redistribute land to the poorer sections, that too with limited success.

Narendra Modi And Nitish Kumar: A Tale Of Two Friends

the BJP is dependent on Nitish and not the other way round. ...... In the Presidential elections of 2012, Nitish did not support the BJP’s candidate. He supported the Congress nominee Pranab Mukherjee and was once again patted on the back by the media for his “secularism”. The media did not care to enlighten us as to what secularism had to do with this. Was the BJP-backed Sangma communal? ....... I am not among those who have given a clean chit to Modi in the post-Godhra communal riots or have forgotten Advani's role in the Babri demolition. The 2002 riots in Gujarat were horrible and as chief minister, it was Modi's duty to stop the violence. I hold Modi guilty even today. But, was he alone guilty? At that time, Atal Behari Vaypayee’s government was ruling at the Centre. Why did it not dismiss the Gujarat government? After all, Vajpayee had the precedent of dismissal of a string of state governments after the demolition of the Babri masjid. Just before the riots, the Bihar government was dismissed for the ‘Senari massacre’. The Gujarat riots were much more serious and sinister than ‘Senari massacre’. When the Bihar government could be sacked for one single massacre why couldn't the government of Gujarat be dismissed? Was Modi alone guilty of not following the ‘rajdharma’? What sort of ‘rajdharma’ was Vajpayee following? ...... And Nitish Kumar--who considers Vajpayee a messiah--which ‘rajdharma’ did he follow? It should not be forgotten that Nitish Kumar was the Railways minister when the Godhra train arson took place. Nitish Kumar, who had offered to resign after the Gaisal train mishap did not even care to visit the site of the Godhra tragedy. ...... The role of both Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar in the Godhra train tragedy is not above reproach. Both of them and subsequently their common political ideal, Atal Bihari Vajpayee,did not fulfill the ‘rajdharma’. Both are publicity-crazy and both are self-anointed ‘Vikash Purush’. ....... While Nitish Kumar comes from a kulak Kurmi family of Bihar, Narendra Modi hails from an extremely poor and most backward class Ghanchi family of Gujarat. Nitish's father was an Ayervedic ‘Vaidyaraj’ and a Congress leader while Narendra's father was a small-time tea vendor. Narendra Modi spent his childhood washing the used glasses at his father’s shop when Nitish was studying Engineering, Narendra was the domestic helper in a lawyer family’s home where his responsibilities included cleaning 9 rooms and preparing food for 15 members of the family. He somehow studied and acquired degrees by appearing in exams as private student. Whatever he learned, he learned in the school of hard knocks. He might be associated with rightist politics but his childhood was as full of struggle as that of the Russian writer Maxim Gorky. There is another crucial difference between Narendra and Nitish. Even as a chief minister, the former led a simple life. He maintained a safe distance from sycophants. He also avoided associating himself with tainted persons.

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Nitish: Speech

Modi, Rahul, Nitish, Or Kejriwal?

Narendra Modi at a BJP rally (Photo credit: Al Jazeera English)

(written for Vishwa Sandesh)

Modi is the only politician in India running for Prime Minister right now. Rahul, the number two name being thrown around, is not even an official PM candidate. Nitish is not a declared candidate, and it is to be seen how many seats his party will manage to win in Bihar. Kejriwal managed an impressive victory in Delhi but some of his antics in power have given many people a pause as to whether he is ready for prime time.

Polls show Modi will manage to push the BJP past the 200 mark. The thing about the 2002 riots in Gujrat is the Supreme Court of India has said Modi is not responsible. Rule of law says that means you can not hang the 2002 riots around Modi's neck. You can not blame Modi for 2002 any more than you could have blamed Rajiv Gandhi for 1984.

The BJP could end up winning 40 seats in Uttar Pradesh out of the 80 available there. There is some indication it could win 20 seats in Bihar out of the 40 available there, although I am surprised Nitish will not do better.

If the BJP wins 200 seats, the Congress 100 seats, and the others end up with 245 seats, is that a victory for Modi? Maybe, maybe not.

That might create room for a coming together of the non Congress, non BJP parties. And if they manage to get together around someone like Nitish, you can be sure the Congress will join the anyone but Modi bandwagon. So Modi will have 200 MPs. The tally for the anti-Modi camp will stand at 345. As in, Modi might peak before a single vote has been cast.

On the other hand, the BJP as the largest party might manage to get a few parties to come along. If it manages to get two parties with 20 MPs each, it will be that much closer to the halfway mark.

Modi's elevation to the top job is going to create an uncomfortable scenario for America. Modi dreams of an India that Americans queue up to get into. He has already created a Gujrat that beats all but a few European economies.

With a few months to go, Modi still has plenty of time to make stump speeches. That gives him time to do better than 200.

Modi in Delhi and Nitish in Patna might not be such bad scenarios. Who will keep doing for Bihar what Nitish has been doing? On the other hand, Bihar's next wave of growth might be about gaining special status, and the best way to get that might be by sending Nitish to Delhi.

Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Orissa together have 100 seats. This Eastern block might be that platform that catapults Nitish to Delhi. For as well as Nitish has done in Bihar as Chief Minister, one would think he should be able to grab 30 of the state's 40 seats. But then you also are looking at a resurgent Laloo.

Modi has momentum right now, but a few months are a very long time in Indian politics. Anything could happen between now and then. Modi's laser focus on the economy has been serving him well. It is also helping that he is actually running for the top job. He was not born into a high caste well to do family. At one point in his life he was selling tea at a railway station.

At the end of the day it might boil down to Modi and Nitish. But a Nitish with 12 MPs will not be a factor. A Nitish with 25 MPs will be.

One just hopes whoever it is puts India on a path to double digit growth rates for the next few decades. India deserves nothing less. If Modi is that person, he will get 120 months. He has been asking for 60. If he gets 200 seats, becomes Prime Minister, and gives India double digit growth rates, the next time the people might give him 250 seats.

Godhra is not the issue, double digit growth rates are. That makes you think. Why is Nitish not running for Prime Minister? His economic record as Chief Minister is better than that of Modi. Gujrat was already a leading state when Modi took over. Nitish remade Bihar.

Nitish and Laloo should have been natural allies. Both have been Chief Ministers. Both have been Railway Minister. Nitish is an excellent Chief Minister. Laloo was an excellent Railway Minister. An electoral alliance that gives 25 seats to Nitish, 10 to Laloo and five to others like Paswan would sweep the state. Nitish alone contesting all 40 seats could do well just fine too.

Things are heating up. Those who can attend rallies. Those who can't watch it on YouTube. The next few months are going to be a nail-biter. And we did not even talk about the South.

There Jayalalita is a wild card. She is "secular" about Modi. She is a declared PM candidate. She might be the first to gravitate towards Modi should he offer the DPM slot to her, and all Third Front talk might go down the tube with that one move.

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124 States Of America

The 124 states of America

Modi On 2002

English: Narendra Modi in Press Conference (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

My dear sisters and brothers,

The law of nature is that Truth alone triumphs – Satyameva Jayate. Our judiciary having spoken, I felt it important to share my inner thoughts and feelings with the nation at large.

The end brings back memories of the beginning. The devastating earthquake of 2001 had plunged Gujarat into the gloom of death, destruction and sheer helplessness. Hundreds of lives were lost. Lakhs were rendered homeless. Entire livelihoods were destroyed. In such traumatic times of unimaginable suffering, I was given the responsibility to soothe and rebuild. And we had whole heartedly plunged ourselves into the challenge at hand.

Within a mere five months however, the mindless violence of 2002 had dealt us another unexpected blow. Innocents were killed. Families rendered helpless. Property built through years of toil destroyed. Still struggling to get back on its feet from the natural devastation, this was a crippling blow to an already shattered and hurting Gujarat.

I was shaken to the core. ‘Grief’, ‘Sadness’, ‘Misery’, ‘Pain’, ‘Anguish’, ‘Agony’ – mere words could not capture the absolute emptiness one felt on witnessing such inhumanity.

On one side was the pain of the victims of the earthquake, and on the other the pain of the victims of the riots. In decisively confronting this great turmoil, I had to single-mindedly focus all the strength given to me by the almighty, on the task of peace, justice and rehabilitation; burying the pain and agony I was personally wracked with.

During those challenging times, I often recollected the wisdom in our scriptures; explaining how those seating in positions of power did not have the right to share their own pain and anguish. They had to suffer it in solitude. I lived through the same, experiencing this anguish in searingly sharp intensity. In fact, whenever I remember those agonizing days, I have only one earnest prayer to God. That never again should such cruelly unfortunate days come in the lives of any other person, society, state or nation.

This is the first time I am sharing the harrowing ordeal I had gone through in those days at a personal level.

However, it was from these very built up emotions that I had appealed to the people of Gujarat on the day of the Godhra train burning itself; fervently urging for peace and restraint to ensure lives of innocents were not put at risk. I had repeatedly reiterated the same principles in my daily interactions with the media in those fateful days of February-March 2002 as well; publically underlining the political will as well as moral responsibility of the government to ensure peace, deliver justice and punish all guilty of violence. You will also find these deep emotions in my recent words at my Sadbhavana fasts, where I had emphasized how such deplorable incidents did not behove a civilized society and had pained me deeply.

In fact, my emphasis has always been on developing and emphasizing a spirit of unity; with the now widely used concept of ‘my 5 crore Gujarati brothers and sisters’ having crystallised right at the beginning of my tenure as CM itself from this very space.

However, as if all the suffering was not enough, I was also accused of the death and misery of my own loved ones, my Gujarati brothers and sisters. Can you imagine the inner turmoil and shock of being blamed for the very events that have shattered you!

For so many years, they incessantly kept up their attack, leaving no stone unturned. What pained even more was that in their overzealousness to hit at me for their narrow personal and political ends, they ended up maligning my entire state and country. This heartlessly kept reopening the wounds that we were sincerely trying to heal. It ironically also delayed the very justice that these people claimed to be fighting for. Maybe they did not realize how much suffering they were adding to an already pained people.

Gujarat however had decided its own path. We chose peace over violence. We chose unity over divisiveness. We chose goodwill over hatred. This was not easy, but we were determined to commit for the long haul. From a life of daily uncertainty and fear; my Gujarat transformed into one of Shanti, Ekta and Sadbhavana. I stand a satisfied and reassured man today. And for this, I credit each and every Gujarati.

The Gujarat Government had responded to the violence more swiftly and decisively than ever done before in any previous riots in the country. Yesterday’s judgement culminated a process of unprecedented scrutiny closely monitored by the highest court of the land, the Honourable Supreme Court of India. Gujarat’s 12 years of trial by the fire have finally drawn to an end. I feel liberated and at peace.

I am truly grateful to all those who stood by me in these trying times; seeing through the facade of lies and deceit. With this cloud of misinformation firmly dispelled, I will now also hope that the many others out there trying to understand and connect with the real Narendra Modi would feel more empowered to do so.

Those who derive satisfaction by perpetuating pain in others will probably not stop their tirade against me. I do not expect them to. But, I pray in all humility, that they at least now stop irresponsibly maligning the 6 crore people of Gujarat.

Emerging from this journey of pain and agony; I pray to God that no bitterness seeps into my heart. I sincerely do not see this judgement as a personal victory or defeat, and urge all – my friends and especially my opponents – to not do so as well. I was driven by this same principle at the time of the Honourable Supreme Court’s 2011 judgement on this matter. I fasted 37 days for Sadbhavana, choosing to translate the positive judgement into constructive action, reinforcing Unity and Sadbhavana in society at large.

I am deeply convinced that the future of any society, state or country lies in harmony. This is the only foundation on which progress and prosperity can be built. Therefore, I urge one and all to join hands in working towards the same, ensuring smiles on each and every face.

Once again, Satyameva Jayate!

Vande Mataram!

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Could Kejriwal Be PM?

Arvind Kejriwal’s stunning performance in the Delhi elections has changed equations in Indian politics. The new Chief Minister of Delhi was a key organizer for the anti-corruption Anna Hazare movement.

He sounds like Ralph Nader when he says the Congress and the BJP are not different at all. That is what Nader had to say about the Democrats and the Republicans. But Nader stayed a fringe candidate, Kejriwal has managed to capture Delhi, and is talking in terms of fielding candidates in over 300 constituencies for the parliamentary elections, including in every constituency in Gujrat.

It is a foregone conclusion that no party will cross the 200 mark. The Congress might even hit close to 100. The BJP will likely cross 150. For the first time a large space is being created for the non-Congress, non-BJP parties. And there are several aspirants for the top job in that camp.

Jayalalita and Mulayam Singh have been open about it. I think Nitish stands a strong chance. But the Third Front stays a hodgepodge, and if the Aam Aadmi Party managed to field candidates in more than 300 constituencies and managed to win in even 50 of those, it will emerge as the largest among the non-Congress, non-BJP parties.

If somehow Modi manages to get the BJP past the 200 mark, someone like Jayalalita might be happy to become Deputy Prime Minister. But if the BJP might hit 160 and the Congress 100, you can bet the Congress will join the anybody-but-the-BJP bandwagon. Which would mean essentially the BJP at that point would be considered a party with 60 seats, 100 of its seats cancelled out by the Congress.

Could Kejriwal end up with 50 MPs? How about 100? If he manages to cross the 100 mark, he would most certainly be Prime Minister.

Right now Modi and Kejriwal are the only two individuals who have all India campaigns in mind. Jayalalita is focused on Tamilnadu, Nitish is focused on Bihar, Mulayam is focused on Uttar Pradesh. But 50 MPs for Kejriwal, and 200 for Modi are tall orders. The largest of the non-Congress, non-BJP parties tend to get 30 seats.

The situation is fluid. India remains the most fascinating democracy. And YouTube makes it rather easy to follow the flux.

Modi has a good record economically. But Nitish Kumar’s record is better. Modi has a national party. Nitish does not. On the other hand, the BJP, it can be argued, is also a regional party. Nitish has an Eastern Bloc in mind. West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Orissa are looking to gang up. Each of those states have strong Chief Ministers sitting on top of regional parties. That is a bloc of about 100 parliamentary seats.

I think Nitish is betting on a post-election alignment of forces.

Many Indian leaders like to claim the 19th century belonged to Britain, the 20th to America and that the 21st will belong to India. Well, so far America is still in the lead. And it is China that is giving competition. India has not happened yet. There are so many Chief Ministers in India performing well. Gujrat as an economy is bigger and better than most economies in Europe.

There is a strong anti-incumbency wave in the country. Rahul’s chances are slim. There are many leaders fundamentally opposed to Modi, Rahul and Nitish among them. That makes it hard for Modi unless he managed to get the BJP past the 200 mark. A hung parliament is a foregone conclusion. The leader of the largest among the non-Congress, non-BJP parties will stand to make a claim. Who will that be?

What is obvious is that the run up to the elections are going to be very interesting. And the post-poll scenario is also going to be colorful. I don’t think Mulayam or Jayalalita will be it. It is between Nitish and Kejriwal. But then a scenario where Mamata has more MPs than Nitish or Jayalalita more than Kejriwal could also throw up interesting scenarios.

I like to say India is a European Union that is actually working. There is a single currency. More than six decades after independence the country is largely an amalgam of regional parties.

Overall I remain optimistic. I think India is poised to hit close to double digit growth rates. And so all fermentation in the political process is positive. India is proof democracy works. It takes time but it works.

As for Kejriwal, it remains to be seen if he can manage to get his magic in Delhi to hit a nationwide stride. Howard Dean did not become president. Imran Khan did not become Prime Minister. Anna Hazare did not become a politician. And so it is not a foregone conclusion that the Aam Aadmi Party will emerge the third largest. But if it does then Kejriwal stands a strong chance of getting the top job.

Modi Vs Kejriwal

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Modi Vs Kejriwal

If the Aam Aadmi Party can bag 50 seats in the 2014 elections, Kejriwal could become Prime Minister. It will end up larger than all the non-Congress, non-BJP parties in India.

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