Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Coronavirus News (94)



Work for food Upkeep of agriculture during the lockdown will keep Nepal fed, make the country more self-reliant and resilient ...... Dasain is 24-27 October, Tihar 13-16 November and Chhat a week later. ..... These are family and community festivals, a time for get-togethers at a time when we should be careful about getting together. ....... Keep strictly to lockdown rules, maintain physical distance even within the family, not so much to protect ourselves but to protect others. ......... The current maize-planting season and the upcoming rainy season are opportunities to ensure that no Nepali goes hungry and ensure food security for Nepal at these difficult and uncertain times. The government should be proactively telling farmers that the lockdown does not include them, as long as they maintain physical distance. ....... This is not food for work, it is work for food. The upkeep of Nepal’s agricultural infrastructure during the lockdown will yield dividends far into the future, keep us fed, make us more self-reliant and resilient. .........

We survived a ten year armed conflict, the earthquake, the Blockade and now we must outlive a pandemic.

........ Many countries that took in able bodied Nepalis as labour in the past may be sending them back. We have to welcome them, not as extra mouths to feed, but extra hands to get Nepal back on its feet to feed itself.



The India connection in Nepal’s COVID-19 status



Returnees may be taking coronavirus to rural Nepal With inadequate medical facilities and influx of people, western Nepal could be the next hotspot ....... A week before Nepal declared a nationwide lockdown to prevent imported COVID-19 cases, close to half a million Nepali migrant workers from India crossed the border into the country without any screening. ......... Another 1.5 million people left Kathmandu Valley for their home districts ....... “Local governments should not waste any time to track down such individuals and place them under quarantine immediately.” ........ Local governments in rural Nepal have no record of people who have come home, and are just starting to collect information of recent returnees. ..........

“If anyone is infected here, it is going to be a disaster. All we have are thermometers,” says Padam Giri, mayor of the Budhinanda

municipality in Bajura, one of the remotest districts in northwestern Nepal. ...... “So far no one has shown any symptoms, but if anyone did, we do not even have test kits.” ........ The mountainous districts of western Nepal are considered to be the most vulnerable because every family has at least one worker in India who has now returned. It was also western Nepal which was worst hit in Nepal by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the 1990s as migrant males brought the disease home and spread it to their wives. ........ “Hundreds of thousands of people have returned to western Nepal from Maharastra, Delhi and Bihar, which are the hardest-hit COVID-19 states in India. The one case in Dhangadi is only the tip of the iceberg” ........... Among the general public, there is now a sense of panic, and migrant returnees are being stigmatised, turning villagers against each other. Even people who die of other causes are rumoured to have died of the coronavirus.



Nepali workers overseas toil through the pandemic COVID-19 lockdowns reveal the essential nature of the jobs of migrant workers ........ Many Nepalis work in WRP, the Malaysian company making latex gloves that are now in high demand because of the pandemic. On Wednesday, the United States lifted its ban on WRP gloves which was imposed after reports of human rights abuse of its workers. ......... “My parents still think of me as a child even though I am pushing 45. .......... One outcome of the pandemic is that it has forced governments to rethink that jobs carried out by migrant workers from Nepal and other countries are actually essential services.

Nepalis quarantined in Qatar The impact of COVID-19 goes far beyond just labour migration ......... “We had just received an order for 5,000 kg of strawberries from Qatar, and had sourced them from a farm in Kakani, but the order was cancelled,” Ghimire says. The company also exported vegetables and even gundruk which is in high demand from Nepalis in the Gulf state. ......... COVID-19 has not distinguished between nationals and expats, politicians and those at the lower rungs of the ladder or between rich and poor. But workers in camps neither have the luxury of social distancing nor the opportunity to work from home. .......... Migrant workers have benefited from the strong health infrastructure and containment efforts in Korea, Malaysia and the Gulf that together have about 1.5 million Nepalis. The consequences of the coronavirus pandemic goes beyond health to Nepal’s economy. ........ Qatar has announced a $23 billion stimulus package to help the private sector weather the crisis.

Unlocking the economy post-lockdown Checklist of measures to help Nepal's economy regain good health once the pandemic eases ........ The country’s remittance-fueled, consumption-led economy, low manufacturing capacity, unemployment, huge trade deficit, high reliance on import-based consumption have been

pre-existing challenges

even before the lockdown. The pandemic has made everything more difficult.



Pandemic is a chance to rethink development COVID-19 offers an opportunity to recalibrate Nepal’s economy towards self-reliance and preparedness ........ I am not suggesting that we eliminate import/export globally. But when critical societal crises arise, as now with COVID-19, it has not taken long to realise that countries and economies reliant on importing food, materials and components from overseas can quickly become incapacitated. .......... The answer is not to eliminate extraterritorial interaction, but try to support, improve and promote local production and marketing within reasonable limits, along with a reduction in excessive consumerism.



Nepal’s economy, already weak, takes direct hit Nepal may not officially have an outbreak cluster yet, but COVID-19 is bringing down the economy ......... Even though there are no overt signs of a health crisis, Nepal’s economy has already been hit hard and the impact is expected to worsen in the coming months as tourism collapses and air travel is further curtailed.

Why Nepal must watch Coronavirus, but not panicBecause: we border China and infected individuals with no symptoms can transmit disease



The climate connection to Covid-19 to see human and animal health and indeed the entire ecosystem and integrally interconnected. ......... Nepal is a real world example of a country already witnessing the public health impact of climate change. Dengue has moved to higher altitudes because of global warming. Nepal had its first reported dengue outbreak as late as 2006 in the Tarai, but fast forward to 2019, and 67 of Nepal’s 77 districts, including those at higher elevations, saw dengue epidemics. Last year, 14,000 Nepalis were diagnosed with dengue and six died, and some estimates put the number of infections closer to 140,000. .......... new viral epidemics will be released by the thawing of permafrost. The frozen soil in the earth’s polar regions and higher elevations binds microbes, methane, or poisonous mercury ............ In addition to the risk to public health, the dangers of melting permafrost include the release of sequestered carbon and methane, the compromising of infrastructure built on top of permafrost, and the impact of the melting on ecological balance. ........

Permafrost typically hosts up to one billion bacteria per gram of soil. The release of these pathogens could unleash deadly epidemics.





A Nepali in Beijing during coronavirus scare Universities in Beijing have requested students to go home and not return until further notice ........ Like many crises situations, there seems to be more unknowns than knowns. ......... “The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace.” ........

While countries around the world are figuring out the best response mechanism to contain the crisis, Nepali authorities appear particularly unprepared.

....... I feel safer in the hotspot of a global pandemic than I would at my own home country.

Nepal’s exit strategy Here in Nepal, no matter what the government thinks, the people voted with their feet leaving Kathmandu by the thousands this week. .... As they piled into crowded buses, many said that if the virus does not kill, poverty will. ......... Yielding to public pressure, elected ruling party politicians have violated their own government’s lockdown rules to send thousands of constituents home from Kathmandu in buses this week. They had not shown as much concern about many others, including workers from India, who walked for days from Kathmandu in the past month after running out of cash and food. ......... India’s strict and unprecedented lockdown is working, but warn against lifting it too soon. They are especially worried about urban hotspots in cities like Delhi and Mumbai. ........ limited local public transport with restrictions on passenger numbers, taxis with only one passenger within cities, no motorcycles, full mobility for agricultural activity and limited resumption of infrastructure, industry and commerce. .......

have a contingency plan in place in case Nepali migrant workers from Malaysia and the Gulf are sent home en masse.

........ “We have to plan so that in 2020 we survive, in 2021 we revive, and in 2022 we thrive.”

Preparing for Nepal’s returnees Planning repatriation of Nepali workers abroad has to go hand in hand with providing for them where they are ....... remittances in Nepal will dip by 14% in 2020 ....... crowded dormitories where they cannot practice physical distancing. ......... To bring a worker who is based in Sharjah to Dhanusha, for instance, will entail coordination on an unprecedented scale. ........ Migrants are glued to social media now more than ever, and this is a useful channel. ....... Even if flights were to restart right away, it would take many months to bring back just the ones who want to return. ....... Mobilising overseas Nepali organisations to help compatriots abroad is more important than ever before, especially in cities further away from the capital.

UAE warning to send back workers, including Nepalis Sending tens of thousands of South Asian migrant workers home would turn a health emergency into a humanitarian crisis ....... Just in the past two years more than 122,000 workers have taken labour permits for the Emirates. There are an estimated 275,000 Nepali workers there, and even if ten percent of them wanted to return to Nepal because their work visas have expired or they are laid off, Nepal would have neither the flight or quarantine capacity to handle them. .......... “Nepal just does not have the quarantine and isolation capacity to handle so many returnees,” said one Nepali public health expert. “Besides, the question would arise why we are flying back workers from Dubai but not from Delhi.” .......... they cannot go back to their own countries even if they want to, and if they stay they will be exposed to infections in the overcrowded camps. .......... The first step would be to know exactly how many Nepalis are in the UAE, and how many of them want to return. There are no figures for that. ........

There are 4 million Nepalis outside Nepal. Even if a tenth of them wanted to return home, the numbers are mind-boggling.

......... “I had fever and headache that made it feel like my head was going to explode. ...... Ramesh, who still has not informed his family because of the panic that will ensue. The other Nepali in his with severe chest pains has been taken to hospital. ......... Ramesh does not know how he got infected. It could be the canteen where there are hundreds of workers crowded together. Or it could be the room where there are ten others, and one room-mate tested positive. “I know about social distancing, but how could I do that here?” he asks. ........ Ramesh adds: “At times like this you realise no one is really there for you. Not the embassy. Not the Nepali community groups. Not your employer. Everyone is pointing only to the UAE government’s hotline number. I talk to them everyday and they take my details. My case is still mild and so they haven’t taken me to hospital. Some of my friends have been going out of their way to help with food. I owe them.”



Nepal locked down, now what? Transparency. Concealing information fuels conspiracies, rumour-mongering and the ‘fake news’. ........

Inexplicably the coronavirus has not walloped Nepal yet while it has devastated countries from our northern neighbour China to Italy and the United States.

........ Keeping people at home under lockdown will go a long way towards ensuring that no further social transmission occurs.

Nepal must hope for the best, prepare for the worst So far relatively unscathed from the coronavirus pandemic, the country cannot afford to be complacent ....... Despite being in the neighbourhood of the epicentre, the South Asian region have shown a relatively lower prevalence of the disease. Most of these countries have resource constraints, illiteracy, poverty, inefficient health system, and poor hygiene — all conducive to the spread of epidemics. .........

Cities like New Delhi, Karachi, Kathmandu and Dhaka are so densely populated that a virus capable of human-to-human transmission like COVID-19 would be expected to be rampant — just as tuberculosis is.

........... There is a possibility that the disease is circulating in the community, and more will be detected once testing is scaled up. However if this was true, there should have been reports of increased hospitalisation and mortality associated with some unknown and unusual pneumonia. Most of the hospitals in Nepal have set up fever clinics, but none so far have reported an increase in the number of suspected patients. ............

most models predict that the exponential ‘wave’ has yet to hit our region. The lockdown may have in fact pushed the wave further back, and bought us time

........ Amazingly, Nepalis who are not known for following directions have taken to heart the importance of a lockdown, and the constant wearing of a mask. ........ And if Nepal’s migrant workers are forced to return home from the Gulf and other countries the problem will only be compounded. ......... Medical data from Wuhan revealed that COVID-19 patients who needed a ventilator had a very high mortality rate, from 60-97% .......... Renal failure also seems to be a prominent feature of severe COVID-19 patients, which is going to tax our limited dialysis capabilities.

Nepal’s future normal Nepalis have come up with ways to cope with the COVID-19 because we are inherently laid back ........ Who would have thought that a time would come when the price of oil would be below zero, once mighty countries would crumble, and humankind would be brought to its knees? And all because of a microscopic strand of RNA. ........... The contagion has provided individuals, communities, countries and the world a chance to mend our ways, to live more frugally and sustainably, to be humble about our inventions and gadgets, and realise how ephemeral our preoccupations are in the eternity that is nature. ........

There is cash in the city, but not much else.

........ Our ancestors survived famines and knew the value of sun dried and fermented food for difficult times. Gundruk, sinki, churpi, achar, tama, lentils and beans were literally life savers during food shortages following epidemics. ............... Food does not grow in a supermarket. Milk does not come out of a carton. Chicken does not live in a freezer. ...........

Once again, missing in this future is government. Yes, we get electricity and (occasionally) water, but little else.

....... A theory says that if you want an easy solution to problems, find a lazy person for the job. It makes sense: work from home, online orders, online payments — they all look like innovations that have invented by the lazy for the lazy. It could be that Nepalis have come up with ways to cope with the COVID-19 because we are inherently laid back. If that is the case we will survive the post-pandemic world as well. ........ Introverts have flourished in the age of physical distancing, so that artists, writers, poets, chefs have been spending the most creative weeks of their lives. Cooking, baking, design work will all flourish in the future normal. The fact that we all wear masks means we do not need to smile at anyone we do not want to, and thank goodness those messy handshakes and awkward hugs are a thing of the past.

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Coronavirus News (93)

'We are living through the first economic crisis of the Anthropocene' Forget the butterfly effect, this is the bat effect – our stranglehold on nature has unleashed the coronavirus outbreak. And the pandemic is forcing us to rethink how to run our networked world ......... The world was facing, she declared, a “crisis like no other”.

For the first time since records began, the entire world economy is contracting, rich and poor countries alike.

....... This isn’t 2008, which was triggered by a meltdown of North Atlantic banking. And it isn’t the 1930s; an earthquake that originated in the fault lines left by the first world war. The Covid-19 economic emergency of 2020 is the result of a massive global effort to contain an unknown and lethal disease. ............ our control of nature, on which modern life rests, is more fragile than we like to think ........ Covid-19 circled the globe in a matter of weeks ........ By calling into question our mastery over life and death the disease shakes the psychological basis of our social and economic order. ........

Neither in the 1930s nor after 2008 was there any question that getting people back to work was the right thing to do

. ....... As the pandemic surged in March 2020, the fragility of financial markets was only too apparent. If the lockdowns are followed by a prolonged recession, as is more than likely, the banks will suffer severe damage. ........ anthropological: what is at stake is the trade-off between economic activity and death ........

A chance mutation in the environmental pressure cooker of central China has put in jeopardy all our ability to go about our daily business.

It is a malign version of the butterfly effect. Call it

the bat effect

. ........... Sophisticated hospitals in China, Italy and the US have been reduced to chaotic, impotent despair. Nurses in New York resorted to swaddling themselves in rubbish bags. Face masks were hand-fabricated on sewing machines. We stack the dead in refrigerator trucks. ......... In a horrific mind-warp, advanced economies suddenly find themselves facing the kinds of dilemma habitually faced by poor countries. We don’t have the tools. In the poor world, the everyday result is that children are stunted and families are impoverished. Millions die for lack of treatment. Covid-19 has delivered a taste of that to the rich world. ..........

this is no coincidence. It is the result of humanity’s relentless incorporation of animal life into our food chain.

HIV/Aids, Sars, avian flu, swine flu and Mers could all be attributed to that dangerous appetite. Like the climate crisis, epidemics are not merely accidents of nature. They have anthropogenic drivers. .......... they have insistently called for is a global public health infrastructure commensurate with the risks that globalisation entails. .........

If we are going to keep huge stocks of domesticated animals and intrude ever more deeply into the last remaining reservoirs of wildlife; if we are going to concentrate in giant cities and travel in ever larger numbers, this comes with viral risks.

If we wish to avoid disasters we should invest in research, in monitoring, in basic public health, in the production and stockpiling of vaccines and essential equipment for our hospitals. ........... Whereas one can reasonably say that giant structures such as capitalism and geopolitics stand in the way of addressing the climate crisis, the same is not true of Covid-19.

The cost of vaccinating the entire world is estimated at around $20bn. That is the equivalent of roughly two hours of global GDP, a tiny fraction of the trillions that the crisis is costing.

The fact that this virus was allowed to become a global crisis is not explicable in terms of massive opposed interests.

It is first and foremost a failure of government

.............. Making good plans, following through on them and doing the basic things right turns out to matter. Addressing the climate crisis poses the daunting challenge of slowing the entire system down. What Covid-19 teaches is that it is not just the big picture that matters. So tightly knit is our global system that small failures of governance in a few crucial nodes can affect everyone on the planet. ............ It turns out that we are capable of pausing the world economy. But we now face the awesome responsibility of reopening. .............

On the one hand are the huge medical risks; on the other is a disastrous economic crisis.

.......... The magic bullet would be a medical solution – antibody tests, effective treatments, a vaccine. .........

We have never successfully developed a corona vaccine. We are betting not on normal science, but on a modern wonder, a “scientific miracle”.

........ The obvious solution is to make the investments in global public health that experts have been calling for since the 1990s. ........ The prevailing political tenor of the crisis, so far, has been conservative and nationalist. ....... Faced with the crisis, Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump have cut ludicrous figures. ........ If it is right that Covid-19 is a crisis like no other, what is to be feared is that there will be more like it to come

New US coronavirus hotspots appear in Republican heartlands Surge in infections in red state towns and rural communities ...... Rise in cases contradicts Trump assertion of rapid decline ........ the president declared: “All throughout the country, the numbers are coming down rapidly.” ........ county-specific figures show a surge in infection rates in towns and rural communities in red states such as Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky and North and South Dakota ...... the list of top 10 surge areas included Nashville, Tennessee; Des Moines, Iowa; Amarillo, Texas; Racine, Wisconsin; Garden City, Kansas, and Central City, Kentucky – a predominantly white town of 6,000 people which saw a 650% week-on-week increase. Muhlenberg county, where Central City is located, has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2004, with Trump winning 72% of votes in 2016 – the biggest ever victory for the party. .........

the virus is advancing quickly outside major coastal towns and cities such as New York, Newark and Seattle where infection rates are now plateauing or dipping.

............ Many of the new emerging hotspots, both rural and urban, are in states where governors refused to issue stay-at-home orders, or are following Trump’s advice to relax lockdown restrictions despite public health warnings about the dangers of doing so too soon. ......... In Nebraska, while statewide new cases have plateaued but testing remains limited, four counties which have been Republican strongholds for decades are now listed among the country’s worst hotspots. ......... The meatpacking industry is linked to several emerging hotspots in the Texas panhandle, a semi-rural region consisting of the 26 northernmost counties, where Trump won 79.9% of the vote in 2016 and his party dominates every level of government.



Coronavirus US live: whistleblower to warn inaction risks 'darkest winter in modern history' the Trump administration was unprepared for the coronavirus pandemic and

there will be dramatic consequences if the US fails to develop a national coordinated response

.......... “the pandemic will get far worse and be prolonged” without a response “based in science”. ........ “Without clear planning and implementation of the steps that I and other experts have outlined, 2020 will be [the] darkest winter in modern history” ........... he had urged dramatic action in response to the potential pandemic in January but “encountered resistance from HHS leadership, including health and human services secretary [Alex] Azar, who appeared intent on downplaying this catastrophic event”.

US nursing homes seek legal immunity as Covid-19 spreads ‘like brushfire’ Healthcare organizations insist protections are essential for under-resourced facilities as horror stories enrage families ....... horror stories from hard-hit facilities ........ The US “ground zero” for the virus was a nursing home outside of Seattle. Once the country became a global hotspot, elderly Americans suffered. In some states, nursing homes have accounted for a majority of Covid-19 deaths as facilities scrambled to adapt. ........

the virus has ravaged nursing homes “like a brushfire”

....... “Facilities mostly don’t want to flag that they have the virus even when it’s killing residents, because it’s such a publicity problem, it’s such a business problem, and they are for-profit enterprises.” ........ Nearly 70% of US nursing homes are for-profit .......

at least 21 states have granted some form of civil immunity to healthcare providers

........ “Putting a nursing home out of business because somebody died is really punishing at the wrong level, because certainly there are nursing homes that probably did not act responsibly, or they may have ignored the threat. But so did many government agencies.” ......... “I think we have to hold our fire, not put our energy into finger-wagging and blaming. And put more emphasis on stronger regulations, with teeth.”

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Coronavirus News (92)



Has Nepal’s lockdown just postponed COVID-19? Nepalis have sacrificed a lot to keep the virus under control, but the government has squandered that time ........ If history is a model, Nepal should expect a second or third wave of COVID-19 in future, and some models predict that a tight lockdown could make those outbreaks larger. ........ India’s lockdown has been declared one of the strictest in the world by Oxford University researchers who developed a ‘stringency index’ based on social mobility in more than 140 countries. ........ It is possible infections may be going undetected due to limited testing. However, if that was true infections would have shown up in other ways, like an increase in hospital visits or mortality rates as seen in Indonesia and Brazil where lockdowns were loose. ....... Nepal seems to have averted the first wave of COVID-19. However, without other mitigation measures being ramped up the gains made so far are likely to be undone. .........

“to be contained anywhere, the virus needs to be contained everywhere”.

........ Lockdowns are meant to be a way to buy time to prepare for future surges. ........ increasing testing and contract tracing, building quarantine centres, preparing and protecting health workers, streamlining social payments systems and outreach on hygiene and health are important. But

the Nepal government machinery does not seem more prepared than when the lockdown was imposed on 24 March

.......... we are likely to be in a much more difficult situation if the virus spreads quickly later. With joblessness, stranded migrant workers waiting to return, the socio-economic impact will be even more difficult. ......... Nepalis who have obediently stayed home for 50 days deserve stronger leadership, transparency and proactiveness. ........

Nepal’s PCR testing per capita remains among the lowest in the world at 466 per million.

Vietnam has done 2,600 per million.

Nepal sees biggest daily jump in COVID-19 cases 57 new cases bringing the total to 191. ....... most of those who tested positive were young Nepalis who had recently returned from India .......

39 new cases in and around the border city of Birganj

........ Kapilvastu saw two new cases over the weekend, and both were young men had slipped in through the border after travelling from Mumbai where they worked. ....... Of the 191 tested so far, most have no symptoms and do not need hospitalisation ....... Of those with symptoms, 33 patients have recovered and have gone home.



Unlock the country in phases Announce a carefully calibrated sectoral and geographical easing of the rules ......... Nepal was the first country in the South Asia to clamp a stay-at-home order on 24 March, after only the second confirmed case. It was a bold move, sacrificing the economy to save lives. ........... Nepal has a relatively low number of confirmed cases, and no reported deaths so far. ....... public health experts interviewed for this editorial tell us there is no way of knowing what the real extent of infection is. They are certain that COVID-19 has killed people in Nepal, but they may have died at home because of stigma if they went to hospital, or they succumbed to co-morbidities like tuberculosis or pre-existing pneumonia. .........

there is not enough testing being done.

...... the lockdown was a balance between saving lives and saving livelihoods. But

now after 6 weeks, it is a balance between saving lives, and saving lives

. Whose lives are we going to save? We have to protect the general population from the coronavirus as well as save it from poverty, hunger and disease. ............. Joblessness, indebtedness and bankruptcies are already costing lives with a spike in suicides. There have been measles outbreaks because vaccination campaigns had to be postponed, dialysis patients have died because of lack of treatment, and patients with chronic diseases have run out of life-saving medicines.

More people are dying of causes other than the coronavirus.

..... even industrialised countries face a severe shortage of test kits. ......... There are probably infections among the many thousands of migrant workers who have dispersed across the mountains of western Nepal. ......... Most of those who tested PCR positive have relatively mild symptoms. Hospital records across the country show no discernible spike in deaths from influenza-like causes. ........ experts continue to urge for a carefully calibrated sectoral and geographical easing of the rules. ........

India has extended its lockdown till 18 May, but has divided the country into red, amber and green districts.

........ partially lifting the shutdown for agriculture, industry and the supply chain to ensure food production and spur economic activity. ........ Continuing the lockdown for the sake of lockdown with no solution lessens its impact on the people and the economy and could send us

from the frying pan into the fire

........... Throughout this crisis, the number of children felled by preventable infections has not gone down – in fact there is evidence it may be increasing. ......... Over 30,000 kidney patients in Nepal are at risk because the COVID-19 lockdown is preventing them from travelling to hospitals for regular dialysis. .........

a nationwide quarantine aimed at controlling one disease is causing deaths from other.

........ Since testing everyone is impossible, and continuing with a complete clampdown would be much more damaging, the next best option is a partially lifting the restrictions.

Nepal prepares for economic fallout of pandemic Capital investment in rural infrastructure to create jobs, spur demand and revive economy ......... The country was relatively unscathed during the global financial crisis of 2008, but the global financial meltdown this time is already hitting Nepal’s economy hard, and experts say the impact will be much worse unless the lockdown is accompanied by an economic bailout strategy, and a social safety net for the most vulnerable. ......... “Our economy is being hit simultaneously on multiple fronts in supply, demand and business standstill. So, there is no single policy solution, we must implement monetary, fiscal, and job-led stimulus,” says former Finance Secretary Rameshwar Khanal. “Any delay will mean that the impact on the economy will be much more serious than already seen.” ..........

the unprecedented nature of the pandemic and its devastating impact on two of Nepal’s largest sources of income, remittances and tourism

......... The domino effect of the pandemic lockdown will result in a drastic fall in aggregate demand, the total spending on goods and services. This means businesses will be unable to sell products, reducing future production, in turn leading to workers losing their jobs. Workers are then unable to buy, the supply chain will be disrupted with downward pressure on market demand, resulting in a rise in prices. ...........

do not factor in the possibility of a long-term lockdown or a possible future outbreak in the country.

......... Policy makers have also been unable to produce a concrete action plan because of the uncertainties about the duration of the pandemic globally, how soon and how India, the Gulf and other countries where Nepalis are working will open up, the resumption of international and domestic flights. ......... create jobs by upgrading rural infrastructure which would decentralise expenditure, and provide downstream benefits when the roads, bridges, irrigation schemes are completed .......... scrap pork barrel funds MPs get, disburse the Prime Minister’s Relief Fund for the most vulnerable, stop all expenses on meetings, conferences and junkets, suspend all project that have not started yet, invest in infrastructure, and prioritise agricultural production. ....... the current crisis provides the opportunity to give agriculture the priority it deserved.



Also keeping financially healthy in a lockdown Post pandemic the government must expedite the foreign investment process to show that Nepal is back in business ........ As we face an unprecedented and precarious pandemic that has caused uncertainty to the entire global economy, Nepal’s own response to it will determine at what velocity our economy will hit the ground.

We need to brace ourselves for a very hard landing

........... The effect of this contagion has not just been sector-specific, but has affected the entire value chain. ......... As the lockdown is extended, the state of the economy will progressively deteriorate. ....... this is not the time for bottom line expectations but to ensure top line sustainability. ........... Never has private equity impact funds been more relevant than now. Patient risk capital with a hand holding mechanism that provides diffusion of knowledge along with the much needed capital is what private equity has been doing in Nepal for the past five years.

Common sense is uncommon in fighting COVID-19 Communication is the first line of defence against a communicable disease ......... The whole world is now using vocabulary that we assume everyone, everywhere, will understand in the same way: pandemic, lockdown, self-isolation, quarantine, flatten the curve, exponential spread, COVID-19. In a country with low adult literacy rate, really poor health infrastructure, Nepalis need to be careful with these terms and how we explain it to the public. ........... Nepalis have lived through an armed conflict, became a republic, written a new constitution, lived through an earthquake and Indian economic blockade – all within a generation. .........

Policemen do not need to beat people walking on the streets, they need to be able to stop them explain what a lockdown is, and the costs and benefits of compliance to society.

........ Lockdowns are cruel, they bring societal inequities to the surface. Just as the virus targets the vulnerable, the measure used to control it by enforcing a lockdown also disproportionately impact on the poor, elderly or those far from home. In a situation where people do not trust the government and black marketers are politically protected, we cannot blame a public that is skeptical of government moves.

Lockdown Fallout The prolonged shutdown forces us to plan for new crises that are sure to manifest themselves in the near future — food shortages, economic hardship, social unrest and political fallout. .......... The virus and its response have exposed and exacerbated existing socio-economic inequities in Nepali society, exclusion and injustice. ........

‘Social distancing is a privilege. It means you live in a house large enough to practise it. Hand washing is a privilege too. It means you have access to running water. Hand sanitisers are a privilege. It means you have money to buy them. Lockdowns are a privilege. It means you can afford to be at home. A disease spread by the rich as they flew around the globe will now kill millions of the poor.’

................ it is those who depend on day-to-day earnings who need urgent assistance. .......... the challenge of quickly finding a mechanism to rescue the most vulnerable with cash grants if necessary. ....... It is now the urban poor in the Global South where new COVID-19 infection clusters will hit hardest, exposing pre-existing disparities in access to medical care and food. ..........

Many Nepali workers are stranded in Malaysia, the Gulf, or in Indian cities

....... One-third of the world’s population is in lockdown, the global economy is shattered, and even though the virus afflicts rich and poor alike, it is the poorest in the poor countries who are most vulnerable to the economic aftershocks of the pandemic. .........

It feels like a nightmare, and it is hard to remember the pre-Corona days when all we had to worry about was climate change.





Crossborder virus and Nepali migrant workers The COVID-19 epidemic has hit countries where millions of Nepalis work ........ The country with the second-largest burden of disease outside China is South Korea where there are about 40,000 Nepali workers. Of the 14 new cases of COVID-19 detected in the UAE this week, two were Nepalis. There are about 200,000 Nepali workers in the Emirates. ........... Qatar also has about 400,000 Nepali workers, and the country has now temporarily banned workers from Nepal and other countries. Qatar has so far detected 15 infected individuals. Cases have also been diagnosed in other West Asian countries with sizeable Nepali working populations: Bahrain (109), Kuwait (65), Oman (18) and Saudi Arabia (15)........ Some years, up to 1,000 Nepali workers in the Gulf and Malaysia have died, and this grim statistic could see an increase if the epidemic spreads. .........

‘Even foreigners living here illegally or without visas can get a free test without any questions,’ reads a Public Service Announcement by the South Korean government.

........... The economic impact of COVID-19 is also felt back home, where the new batch of workers who completed the rigorous selection process for employment in Korea through the EPS have been asked to put off their departure until further notice. The same now applies for workers going to Qatar. ............

Workers talk of a visible slowdown in otherwise bustling Dubai.





Back to the future of farming In the post-pandemic era, the economy must be recalibrated to give agriculture the priority it deserved, but never got ......... Across Nepal, fields and terraces are barren or are reverting to jungle. The elderly are left managing the farm, while others move to the roadhead for schooling, or living off remittance. In the Tarai, once Nepal’s grain basket, agricultural activity is affected by urbanisation, salination and depletion of ground water. ....... There is a surplus of milk and vegetables right now ........ It is not enough, of course, to ask citizens to go back to the land. Farming has to be made attractive and profitable as a profession. ........ Young people who remain on the farm are seen by society as failures in life. This attitude needs to change. ...... The coronavirus pandemic provides Nepal with an opportunity to bring back agriculture as a pillar of the economy, providing employment and food security for the people and self-sufficiency to the nation. Nepal can create jobs in the service industry and manufacturing, but these will not be enough for the volume of returnees from Gulf, Malaysia and India due to the global economic downturn.



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Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Coronavirus News (91)

Dr. Anthony Fauci to warn of 'needless suffering and death' if US opens too early amid coronavirus pandemic
There's a rebellion brewing and Trump is egging it on
GOP senator calls House coronavirus bill a 'fairy tale'
An AI can simulate an economy millions of times to create fairer tax policy Deep reinforcement learning has trained AIs to beat humans at complex games like Go and StarCraft. Could it also do a better job at running the economy? .......... Economists typically rely on assumptions that are hard to validate. People’s economic behavior is complex, and gathering data about it is hard. ....... “It would be amazing to make tax policy less political and more data driven” ......... In one early result, the AI found a policy that—in terms of maximizing both productivity and income equality—was 16% fairer than a state-of-the-art progressive tax framework studied by academic economists. The improvement over current US policy was even greater. ............ “The real world is way too complicated”

White House requires masks for staff, Western states ask for $1 trillion in aid
'Promiscuous treatment of nature' will lead to more pandemics – scientists Habitat destruction forces wildlife into human environments, where new diseases flourish
As countries consider lifting lockdowns, some in Asia are experiencing a resurgence in coronavirus cases In Asia, where the coronavirus first hit, several countries including China and South Korea have experienced an uptick in cases after restrictions were eased........ Meanwhile, investors and analysts said another round of lockdowns would exacerbate the damage already inflicted on the global economy.
Mexico's president orders military back on the streets to tackle rising violence
Elon Musk says he's restarted production at Tesla plant in California, disregarding stay-at-home order
Trump may let workers take Social Security benefits early in exchange for reduced payments later. Retirement advocate calls it ‘harebrained idea’
CDC finds New York City coronavirus death toll may be much worse than official tally
Doctors warn parents to look out for symptoms of rare, mystery illness in kids that could be linked to coronavirus So far, about 85 children around the country are believed to have this illness
As countries restart, WHO warns about lack of virus tracing





"भारतबाट नेपाली नागरिक हजारमा होइन लाखको संख्यामा फर्किन्छन् वा फर्काइन्छन् भन्ने कुरामा किल्लोर भए हुन्छ । आजबाट रेलको...
Posted by Manoj Gajurel on Tuesday, May 12, 2020
It looks COVID-19 is in community transmission phase in Birgunj !!
Posted by Shankar Yadav on Tuesday, May 12, 2020
Earlier it was NCP internal dispute, then came the ordinance dispute and then kalapani dispute..who is taking care of spreading Corona pandemic n the people in Nepal?
Posted by Sarita Giri on Monday, May 11, 2020
What is ONE similarity across the far right wing, fascist powers in America, India or Brazil? They all treat the poor as...
Posted by Partha Banerjee on Tuesday, May 12, 2020

कोरोना वायरस महामारी २०२० (कृपया व्यापक शेयर...

Posted by Paramendra Kumar Bhagat on Tuesday, May 12, 2020
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Monday, May 11, 2020

Coronavirus News (90)



The Coronavirus Shock Looks More like a Natural Disaster than a Cyclical Downturn Recessions typically develop gradually over time, reflecting underlying economic and financial conditions, whereas the current economic situation developed suddenly as a consequence of a fast-moving global pandemic. A more appropriate comparison would be to a regional economy suffering the effects of a severe natural disaster, like Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina or Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. ........ The coronavirus pandemic, in contrast, came on suddenly, hitting the economy at full force in one month. Third, the current pandemic is widely viewed as a temporary situation with an endpoint, though how soon that endpoint is reached is of utmost concern and remains to be seen. .........

A Katrina-Level Event—but at a National Scale

.......... As New York’s governor has aptly noted, the coronavirus pandemic is like a slow-moving hurricane—and we’re not even sure how slow-moving it is yet.



Small Businesses Are Worse Off Than We Thought If the COVID-19 crisis lasts four months, 65 percent of small retailers say there’s a good chance they’ll be forced to close permanently by the end of the year. Among restaurants and bars, 70 percent expect to go out of business if social-distancing orders last into July. ................ On average, survey respondents with less than $10,000 in monthly bills had only enough cash on hand to cover one month of expenses. ......... “Everything is rapidly evolving” .......

Through the Paycheck Protection Program, part of the federal government’s $2 trillion economic relief package, small businesses can apply for low-interest loans, all or most of which will be forgiven, based on amounts spent on wages, rent, and utilities.

........ A significant number of survey-takers said they would not apply for government loans because they anticipated problems with accessing the funds due to red tape and distrust in the government to forgive the loans.



The Shift to Online Teaching How K-12 educators can translate proven higher ed practices to their virtual classrooms

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Coronavirus News (89)



A day in the life of an ER doc Third-year resident Anita Chary describes the personal and professional trials brought by the pandemic ......... She is given a mask to wear, then winds her way through tunnels to her department, where she dons blue scrubs, face shield, and goggles and begins another nine-hour shift in an emergency room, the front line of the nation’s worst public health crisis in more than a century. ........... divides patients suffering with symptoms of the virus, or with a positive diagnosis, into three categories:

those who are well enough to leave and recover at home; those who must be admitted because they need oxygen to help them breathe; and those who need intensive care and a ventilator

. .......... many who arrive at the ER not sick enough to be hospitalized. Chary watches them leave tortured by the thought of infecting loved ones. “It’s the prospect of going home and potentially spreading coronavirus to other people at home that is just so difficult for them to bear.” ......... Her sleep has suffered, she says, the result of an overwhelming need to check her patients’ electronic charts for updates. “I try to do it before I go to bed at night; it’s the first thing I do in the morning. It’s just this higher level of constant concern about the patients that I’ve had.” .......... “With younger patients it can be particularly devastating when you see they are still not doing better after being in the ICU for weeks.” .......... the influx of lower-income patients from communities of color. ......... “I often find that these patients are working in essential jobs,” she says. “They are working in grocery stores; they are operating public transport; they’re in custodial services; or they’re doing things like home delivery. And so

they’re really on the front lines of society just as much as we are in the hospital

. Working from home is not an option. And it’s also difficult for them to do social distancing and isolate because they live in smaller apartments, and they tend to live in multigenerational households where people are sick, too.” ............ Chary knows death comes with being a doctor specializing in urgent care, but some of the unique aspects of this disease can still shake her. Many physicians have noted how quickly conditions can deteriorate and the high death rates for those placed on ventilators. .......... At the urging of the hospital’s palliative-care team, Chary and her colleagues are having patients requiring a ventilator record messages to loved ones on their phones before they are sedated. “That has been one of the most powerful experiences,” says Chary, her voice shaking. “Handing someone their phone and listening to them tell their family they love them and just hoping that they will be able to speak to their loved ones again after they come off the ventilator, but not knowing.” ..........

She’s heard horror stories from friends and colleagues in places like New York City and Detroit, where refrigerated trucks idle outside hospitals storing the bodies of those who have passed away, while inside patients overwhelm sickbays, sometimes dying before a doctor can get to them.

............ limiting her and her colleagues’ exposure to the virus is a constant concern ........ more than 9,000 health professionals had been infected by the coronavirus, including more than 320 at the Brigham. ........ When her shift ends at 4 p.m. Chary prepares to head out, disinfecting her phone and stethoscope with sanitizer, meticulously washing her hands and arms up to her elbows, and changing out of her blue scrubs into clean clothes. Back in her apartment she showers as soon as she walks in, a normal part of her daily routine in the age of coronavirus. ....... Chary unwinds with Netflix and calls to family. Her parents in Illinois are in the high-risk category, over the age of 65 with underlying health conditions, and, as with her husband, she hasn’t seen them for months. “It’s hard, but the safest thing for myself, my loved ones, and society is to not travel right now,” Chary says. ..........

‘Hands that serve are holier than lips that pray.’



COVID-19’s Hard Lessons Might Prepare Business for Climate Change the catastrophe might force companies to face a crisis that has been unfolding in plain sight: climate change. ...... In the short run, COVID-19 changes everything, just because nearly every company is so stressed. In the long run, I hope that companies will emerge from the crisis with a renewed appreciation for the importance of paying attention to the potential for catastrophic risks such as climate change, and for the importance of building government capacity equipped to deal with major public crises. .........

COVID-19 is making climate increasingly a top-of-mind issue.





Economic earthquake: Consumer spending in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic consumer spending in the U.S. fell off a cliff in March. That’s when bars, concert halls, movie theaters and other nonessential businesses across much of the country shuttered to try to stem the spread of the new coronavirus. ......... places that account for a large share of GDP, like Los Angeles and New York counties, having almost completely shut down. ........ the biggest chunk — about 70% of GDP — comes from money Americans spend domestically. .......... The current situation more closely resembles a natural disaster than a traditional recession, according to economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The supply of things to spend money on has been stanched. It’s like

a national-level Hurricane Katrina

, the storm that devastated New Orleans in August 2005 ......... The coronavirus pandemic has caused an economic shock — not unlike an earthquake. ........ The big one — the 1929 stock market crash and depression that followed — was a magnitude 10 .......... The 1987 stock market crash was a magnitude 7, and the 2008 housing bubble was a magnitude 8.5. ........ puts the coronavirus recession at

a magnitude 9

, with the caveat that “many unknowns remain.” ........ Shutting down the U.S. economy is an extreme step, but the stakes are life or death. ........ half a million lives could be saved as a result of social distancing measures that drastically reduce consumer spending ...........

“Abandoning containment policies prematurely leads to an initial economic recovery ......... But it also leads to a large rise in infection rates. That rise causes a new, persistent recession.”

......... real GDP would plummet 15% in the first quarter. ......... GDP could shrink by 10% in the second quarter of 2020 compared with the first quarter, and the unemployment rate could reach 15% by midyear ..........

annualized GDP would fall 34% in the second quarter.

..........

unemployment rate would be in the 26% to 51% range

if Goldman’s GDP estimates are on target. Goldman expects a partial rebound in the last two quarters of the year. ......... “When people hear the economy is going to shrink by a third, they think that’s maybe a little bit implausible,” Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a podcast from early April. “But that’s not what we’re saying. We’re saying that the economy basically shrinks by 10% relative to the first quarter, or April shrinks by 13% relative to January.” ........... By the end of 2020, Goldman estimates GDP will contract about 6% compared with 2019. ......... advanced economies, like the U.S., Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom, will contract on average about 6% in 2020 due to

“the Great Lockdown”

........... Unemployment benefits will extend through the end of the year, longer than the typical benefit period of about six months. ......... “It’s much more important to give households money for a longer period of time than more money up front” ........

And if the economy reopens too soon, a deeper recession could follow.



The Federal Reserve must reduce long-term damage from coronavirus Reviving crisis-era programmes is a first step but the central bank may need to buy corporate bonds ........ Fiscal policy will certainly have to do more as the size of the hit to economic activity becomes apparent. ......... Some of the actions recently announced by the Fed, including cutting the short-term policy rate nearly to zero and preparing to buy at least $700bn in Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities, are superficially similar to those taken by monetary policymakers during the 2008 financial crisis.  ......... the problem is not originating from financial markets: they are only reflecting underlying concerns about the potential damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic, which of course monetary policy cannot influence. ....... stabilising financial markets, which have been highly volatile and have not functioned normally. Communications difficulties among teleworking or siloed traders and selling from leveraged traders who are having to post additional cash to meet margin calls as share prices fall may have contributed to the market’s illiquidity. The most important financial markets, including those for US Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities, must work properly if lenders are to feel confident about extending credit to households and businesses in such unusual times..............

Ideally, when the effects of the virus pass, people will go back to work, to school, to the shops, and the economy will return to normal. In that scenario, the recession may be deep, but at least it will have been short. 

............ But that isn’t the only possible scenario:

if critical economic relationships are disrupted by months of low activity, the economy may take a very long time to recover. Otherwise healthy businesses might have to shut down due to several months of low revenues. Once they have declared bankruptcy, re-establishing credit and returning to normal operations may not be easy. If a financially strapped firm lays off — or declines to hire — workers, it will lose the experienced employees needed to resume normal business. Or a family temporarily without income might default on its mortgage, losing its home

. ................... To avoid permanent damage from the virus-induced downturn, it is important to ensure that credit is available for otherwise sound borrowers who face a temporary period of low income or revenues. One of the Fed’s principal goals is to ensure that credit is available. ......... Central bank tools cannot eliminate the direct costs of the virus, including the suffering and loss it will create. However, the Fed can help mitigate the economic effects of the outbreak, particularly by assuring that, once the virus’s direct effects are controlled, the economy can rebound quickly.



Russia: Pandemic tests Putin’s grip on power Moscow has been criticised for failing to act quickly enough in a crisis that is sapping its oil-dependent economy .......... In addition to a six-week national lockdown and crippling quarantine measures that have suffocated domestic industry, the pandemic has contributed to a more than halving of the price of oil, imperilling the country’s financial lifeblood. ........ Profits from oil and gas sales provide around 50 per cent of Russia’s consolidated budget revenue — about $130bn. Since oil prices plunged, partly due to Mr Putin’s ill-fated decision to embark on a price war with Saudi Arabia to hurt US shale producers, a $165bn war chest built up to protect the economy is being drained by as much as $300m a day .......... Mr Putin faces a multi-faceted crisis that has shaken his authority and the informal social contract that underpins his rule: to provide security and economic stability to voters in exchange for restrictions on their political freedoms. ............ Mr Putin’s approval rating has fallen to a six-year low. One measure of public trust in him is at 28 per cent — the lowest since 2006 — just 18 months before Russia’s parliamentary elections............ Protests have also taken place online, with citizens posting thousands of anti-Putin comments at government locations on the Yandex.Maps mobile navigation app....... Mr Putin’s approval rating fell to 63 per cent in March, down from 69 per cent in February. While exceptionally high for a European politician, Mr Putin has almost no political opponents, and it is well below the ratings in the high-80s he enjoyed between 2014 and 2018. The state-run VTsIOM found in a recent survey that just 28 per cent of respondents named Mr Putin when asked which politicians they trusted. .............

Russia now has one of the world’s fastest growing Covid-19 caseloads.

......... 2 per cent of the capital’s population was infected with Covid-19. That equates to more than 250,000 people — four times the number that the government has previously admitted are infected in the capital, raising doubts over the efficiency of the 4m tests that Russia’s government says it has conducted nationwide. ...........

“Moscow was late to shut down its border with the EU, exposing the obvious racism of the Russian elite: China was perceived as ‘dangerous’ while Europe was viewed as ‘safe’ despite huge numbers in Italy and Spain”

............ the outbreak is spreading fastest in provincial cities and rural regions far from Moscow

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