Friday, March 27, 2020

Coronavirus News (18)

Cuomo: Not sure if closing all businesses, keeping everyone home was 'the best public health strategy'
How small-business owners and the self-employed can take advantage of the coronavirus stimulus package Congress recently passed a $2 trillion stimulus package, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Securities Act (CARES), that includes expanding unemployment insurance to self-employed workers and independent contractors. The bill extends unemployment benefits for 13 more weeks and also includes an additional $600 a week on top of state unemployment benefits for up to four months. The rate of state pay may be less for self-employed, independent contractors, and freelance workers........ Network, network, network: “The worst thing you can do right now is stop communicating” ....... “Talk to your clients, talk to your audience. Put out the word on Facebook that you’re still open for business.” ....... Now is a good time to make changes. Think about ways to operate more efficiently. Review your marketing materials and see what needs updating. Think about your technology and social media accounts. And consider the future and what updates you’ll need to make to your business to address the new way of life after a pandemic ....... Consider a side hustle like online tutoring or making deliveries. Or take an aspect of your own business and shape it into something people need now. “Advertise locally and drum up some extra cash for things people are craving during this time of being shut in and distanced from others”



Indian migrant workers could undermine the world's largest lockdown India may still have fewer than 1,000 cases but the fear of pandemic has caused panic buying and attacks on front line medical staff. ...... Doctors and nurses in the capital New Delhi told CNN that they have been ostracized and discriminated against by their communities over fears that they could bring home the virus after work. Some doctors have even been threatened with eviction or having their electricity cut off....... "Many doctors are now stranded on the roads with all their luggage, nowhere to go, across the country," said one letter from the Resident Doctors' Association of New Delhi's All India Institute of Medical Sciences to the Union Home Minister Amit Shah.



How the Covid-19 recession could become a depression

As the Covid-19 pandemic worsens, it’s hard to decide which are scarier: the conversations I’m having with epidemiologists or the conversations I’m having with economists.

....... The mistake the US made in 2008 was not spending enough. We underestimated the size of the output gap, and then passed a stimulus too small to fill it. When the Obama administration returned to Congress for more fiscal ammunition, Republicans refused, and the recovery limped rather than roared. ......... There’s only one equilibrium: It’s economic inactivity until the danger passes.” ........ There will be at least four waves of economic pain, he told me, each building on the last. Wave one is “the sudden stop,” the unexpected cessation of economic activity all across the country ....... When the economy stops, and GDP plummets, workers lose their jobs. That, Zandi said, is wave two, and “it’s coming very quickly.” ....... On Sunday, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said unemployment could reach 30 percent, and GDP could drop by 50 percent. ...... The third wave, according to Zandi, will be “all these folks who’ve seen their nest egg wiped out. They thought they were set for retirement and they’re not. They’ll go into panic mode.” ....... Wave four, Zandi continues, will see businesses cut investment. ........ But if the virus is brought under control in May, and Congress passes enough stimulus, Zandi, and other forecasters, think powerful catch-up growth in the third and fourth quarters is possible. Perhaps this could be

a “V-shaped” recession: a sharp drop followed by a swift recovery

. ........ The nightmare scenario is that the virus isn’t under control by the summer, and extreme social distancing measures are needed throughout the year ....... the ground could collapse underneath the economy. ....... Another possibility is a financial crisis, in which the markets for corporate debt or government bonds or international currency flows lock up, and create a contagion of their own. Already we’re seeing signs of strain: strange movements in municipal bond markets, shortages of dollars, and corporate debt markets. If any of these collapse into panic, we could add a 2008-style financial crisis atop our 2020-style economic and public health crisis. If that happens, says Zandi, “then you get into very dark scenarios — you start getting three, four, five years of financial pain.” ....... “It’s not cyclical unemployment. It’s quarantine unemployment. Businesses aren’t allowed to operate. People aren’t allowed to be out of their home. The idea that if you just give people money it’ll somehow prevent the unemployment rate from skyrocketing makes no sense. No amount of demand stimulus will get people to go to restaurants if they’re closed.” ........ delivering up to $18,000 to families of four and sustaining the aid so long as the public health emergency continues or unemployment is elevated ....... the closest comparison to the economy we’re creating now is the economy of World War II: The government was spending huge amounts of money on the war effort, but wages were suppressed, goods were rationed, the public was pressured into buying bonds, and social norms discouraged excessive consumption. ......... If those businesses collapse in mass numbers, then even when the health risks pass, the labor market will be in shambles, as there won’t be jobs for workers to return to. ......... In a more imaginative country, with a more ambitious and capable political system, crisis could become opportunity: This could be the moment to pass a true Green New Deal, taking advantage of cheap money and idle workers to solve perhaps the central problem of our future. If this economy must collapse, perhaps we could build something better, fairer, more sustainable in its place. “I hope this will cause a seismic political change,” says Sen. Bennet. “I think this is going to make us realize we need to invest again in America.”

This calculator tells you exactly how big your coronavirus stimulus check could be
Coronavirus: Trump makes thinly veiled attack at AOC during White House briefing
Coronavirus measures could cause global food shortage, UN warns
Coronavirus strikes UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, his health secretary and his chief medical adviser
As coronavirus cases spike worldwide, China is closing itself off
Coronavirus pandemic's global impact seen from space in chilling satellite images
'It’s what was happening in Italy': the hospital at the center of New York's Covid-19 crisis New York is the center of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States, and Elmhurst hospital in the New York City borough of Queens is the center of the center. ...... the medical examiner’s office has stationed a refrigerated trailer to act as a makeshift morgue. ...... there were 23,112 Covid-19 cases in New York City alone ....... The hospital is located in one of the poorest and most diverse areas of the city, home to 20,000 recent immigrants from 112 different countries. It was already operating at 80% capacity before the coronavirus pandemic ....... In the Elmhurst and the

nearby Corona neighborhood

, one in four people lack health insurance. One in four live in poverty. ..... “Doctors describe scenes in apocalyptic terms. Patients are reportedly dying in the emergency room still waiting for a bed. Residents line the block, standing inside barricades and in the rain waiting to get tested.”

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Thursday, March 26, 2020

Coronavirus News (17)

Up to 10 per cent of recovered coronavirus patients in Wuhan study tested positive later, doctors say Hospital staff in the city say there is no evidence that these patients became infectious after recovery ....... Tests carried out on patients suggest between 3 to 10 per cent gave positive tests after being discharged ......... The Chinese mainland, where the disease first emerged last December, has discharged over 90 percent of its infected patients ........

about 5 to 10 per cent of their recovered patients tested positive again.

....... These incidents have raised questions about whether nucleic acid tests might not be reliable in detecting traces of the virus in some of the recovered patients. ........ the five patients from his hospital who tested positive again did not have any symptoms, and none of their family members or people in close contact with them has been infected. ...... no conclusive evidence to prove that the recovered patients who tested positive again would be infectious to others......... the patients have developed antibodies that were effective in protecting them from the nucleic acid of the virus



A third of coronavirus cases may be ‘silent carriers’, classified Chinese data suggests A patient usually develops symptoms in five days, though the incubation period can be as long as three weeks in some rare cases. ........

The United States, Britain and Italy simply do not test people without symptoms

....... The approach taken by China and South Korea of testing anyone who has had close contact with a patient – regardless of whether the person has symptoms – may explain why the two Asian countries seem to have checked the spread of the virus. Hong Kong is extending testing to airport arrivals in the city, even if travellers have no symptoms. Meanwhile in most European countries and the US, where only those with symptoms are tested, the number of infections continues to rapidly rise. ......... An EU report has put the proportion of asymptomatic cases in Italy at 44 per cent ...... “Of course it is hard to say if they may be less infectious if they don’t cough. But there are also droplets when you speak,” he said, referring to how the respiratory virus is transmitted.



Thousands of covert coronavirus cases go under the radar in Wuhan, Chinese-led researchers say 59 per cent of infections were asymptomatic or mild enough not to attract medical attention ........ The researchers used lab tests as the basis of their assessment rather than Chinese government data on confirmed cases because the authorities used symptomatic manifestations and abnormal lung scans to classify patients......

China’s public data of confirmed cases does not reflect asymptomatic cases.

........ the total number of infections citywide on February 18 could have exceeded 125,000. ....... Wuhan reported 38,020 confirmed cases on February 18. .......... over one-third of laboratory-confirmed cases in China were silent carriers who were either asymptomatic or presymptomatic. By February 29, authorities had recorded more than 43,000 silent carriers, who had tested positive but did not show symptoms.



Coronavirus latest: more than 21,000 dead as UN warns of threat to ‘whole of humanity’

More than three billion people are living under lockdown measures

as soaring death tolls in Europe and the US underlined a United Nations warning that the coronavirus, which has now infected nearly half a million people globally, threatens all of humanity. ....... an appeal for US$2 billion to help the world’s poor. ........ “Global action and solidarity are crucial. Individual country responses are not going to be enough.” ......... Donald Trump has voiced hope the US will be “raring to go” by mid-April, but his optimism appeared to stand almost alone among world leaders. ........ Russia will halt all international flights from midnight on Friday under a government decree ........ Russia needed to be ready for an “Italian scenario” ........ “We have saved up for a rainy day. The Covid-19 pandemic is already a mighty storm, and is still growing.” ....... a strong chance the new coronavirus could return in seasonal cycles ....... the virus was beginning to take root in the southern hemisphere, where winter is on its way. ........ Spain 47,600 total cases. Its 3,434 deaths only trail Italy’s death toll as the hardest-hit countries in the world. The parliament met with fewer than 50 of its 350 members in the chamber, with the rest voting from home to reduce the risk of contagion.........

Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro has warned of possible “chaos” and the “looting” of supermarkets if state shutdowns ordered by the governors of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro aren’t ended.

....... Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly scoffed at the severity of the deadly pandemic, had previously criticised the closing of schools and businesses in Sao Paulo and Rio states, two of the country’s most populous states. .......... Germany has boosted its coronavirus test rate to 500,000 a week .......... The new borrowing of €€156 billion (US$169 billion) is equivalent to half of the country’s normal annual spending... The country, which tightened lockdown measures this week, has about 32,700 cases and more than 150 deaths.......

The governor of a state in central Mexico is arguing that the poor are “immune” to the new coronavirus

........ Barbosa also appeared to be playing on an old stereotype held by some Mexicans that poor sanitation standards may have strengthened their immune systems by exposing them to bacteria or other bugs. ......... There is no scientific evidence to suggest the poor are in any way immune to the virus that is causing Covid-19 disease around the world. ....... Japan will ban entry from 21 European countries as well as Iran ........ Similar steps are in place for visitors from China, South Korea, most of Europe and the United States. ....... The Australian government scrapped a time limit on haircuts following a backlash. .......

India’s government announced a 1.7 trillion rupee (US$22.6 billion) stimulus package

......... India is on a total lockdown for three weeks from Wednesday in the world’s biggest isolation effort

View this post on Instagram

The last two weeks I’ve stayed inside. When I returned from my trip around Central Europe I isolated myself (in a borrowed apartment away from my mother and sister) since the number of cases of COVID-19 (in Germany for instance) were similar to Italy in the beginning. Around ten days ago I started feeling some symptoms, exactly the same time as my father - who traveled with me from Brussels. I was feeling tired, had shivers, a sore throat and coughed. My dad experienced the same symptoms, but much more intense and with a fever. In Sweden you can not test yourself for COVID-19 unless you’re in need of emergent medical treatment. Everyone feeling ill are told to stay at home and isolate themselves. I have therefore not been tested for COVID-19, but it’s extremely likely that I’ve had it, given the combined symptoms and circumstances. Now I’ve basically recovered, but - AND THIS IS THE BOTTOM LINE: I almost didn’t feel ill. My last cold was much worse than this! Had it not been for someone else having the virus simultainously I might not even have suspected anything. Then I would just have thought I was feeling unusually tired with a bit of a cough. And this it what makes it so much more dangerous. Many (especially young people) might not notice any symptoms at all, or very mild symptoms. Then they don’t know they have the virus and can pass it on to people in risk groups. We who don’t belong to a risk group have an enormous responsibility, our actions can be the difference between life and death for many others. Please keep that in mind, follow the advice from experts and your local authorities and #StayAtHome to slow the spread of the virus. And remember to always take care of each other and help those in need. #COVID #flattenthecurve

A post shared by Greta Thunberg (@gretathunberg) on



After Xi’s China and Trump’s America, Modi’s India is stepping up to battle the coronavirus

A nation-wide 21-day curfew has been imposed that will affect almost 1.3 billion people.

.......... “There will be a total ban on venturing out of your homes.” ....... Panic buying of food and essential goods has ensued across India ....... given the vast number of Indians at the poverty line or below it, considerable social unrest is expected. ......... experts warn that rapid community transmission could queer the pitch very quickly and some dire exigencies have been outlined – including fatalities in the million plus. ...... His call for a regional Covid-19 effort is pertinent, given that South Asia is home to 1.8 billion people, or a fifth of the global population, but has very inadequate public health infrastructures. ......... Modi’s call for collective deliberation to deal with the pandemic has been endorsed by other leaders, and has encouraged G20 chair Saudi Arabia to convene a video summit on Thursday. .......... the United Nations Security Council is in near paralysis due to the stand-off between China and the United States over Covid-19. ........ Along with China and the US, India is one of the world’s three most populous nations and the next 21 days will be critical in determining which coronavirus scenario will play out in the world’s largest democracy. .......... almost 70 years ago, a fledgling and newly independent India was a valuable mediator in the Korean war, between Washington, Moscow and Beijing. .......... The coronavirus challenge needs the major powers to cooperate and pool their resources and expertise. Perhaps Modi can catalyse a constructive Trump-Xi pandemic dialogue



Coronavirus: India’s worst-case scenario is two in 10 people infected but most cases would be mild The actual outcome depends on whether India’s transmission pattern will be similar to the grim situation in Italy and Iran ......... India is in no different a position than the US or the UK ........ for India – where people live in jam-packed cities and commute in heavily crowded public transport with little to no understanding of social distancing – having 300 million people ill, with six to eight million requiring intensive medical treatment, would strain its healthcare system. ........ the real number is significantly higher due to a lack of widespread testing ........ The railway network, India’s commuter lifeline which carries about 9 billion passengers annually, suspended all its passenger trains until the end of March. ......... “community transmission” would have occurred in India at least three weeks ago and thousands of people have since been transmitting the virus unknowingly. ........ “You have 22,500 deaths happening in India every day and they’re all imperfectly measured. Let’s say we have 1,000 more additional deaths in the country because of Covid-19. Our systems are not sensitive enough to pick that up” .......... “It is called a black swan event for a reason which you cannot prepare for. It’s out of the blue and totally unexpected” ........... the entire country’s ICU bed capacity is between 70,000 and 100,000 but if the outbreak hits the peak of its curve, those with severe infections could hit a few million within a short period. ....... “This [the outbreak] is going to test three things about us: our health system capacity; our system of governance on how much people listen to what the government is saying; and our social fabric, whether people are going to help each other or it’s a free-for-all when everything breaks out.”

Coronavirus: India’s lockdowns are a matter of life and death for its 450 million informal workers The sector makes up some 90 per cent of the country’s workforce and about half its GDP, but has no income security and only limited health care access ........... As Prime Minister Modi looks to curb the spread of the outbreak, some of these workers are facing weeks without pay, housing or food .......... On Saturday, New Delhi and Mumbai saw overcrowded railway stations and bus stops as people who had been laid off or were simply unable to find work were forced to return to their native villages, putting them at risk of infection. ........ On Saturday, Ajmal Khan, a construction worker from Uttar Pradesh, was asked not to come to work the next day. The 54-year-old, who had been living at a construction site in Noida city, was also ordered to vacate the premises. ...... “We understand what the government is doing is for our own benefit. I don’t want to get sick,” she said. “But the government should have made some arrangements before making such an announcement. Or at least given us time to prepare.” ........

the slum – which houses over 500 families – does not even have a water supply for people to regularly wash their hands.

......... “We are faced with people who have a hand-to-mouth existence with no savings and no ability to tide things over for a month or two. People can die of hunger before they catch the virus.” ......... Uttar Pradesh will provide cash transfers of 1,000 rupees ($13.50) per month to more than 3.5 million day labourers and construction workers.



Bungled, chaotic White House response to coronavirus discredits Trump, but won’t stop the US winning the Covid-19 fight The US president’s apparent reluctance to use emergency powers to ramp up production of critical medical supplies and equipment puts lives at risk ....... No one knows if it’s too late to stop the worst of the tsunami-like wave to come.

By the end of March, if current rates of growth do not drop significantly, the US will have more than double China’s official total.

....... N95 masks that are essential protective equipment now cost US$7 each, up from US$4 only days ago and a mere 85 cents before the crisis began. ......... When criticism began to mount, Trump said some of these masks could simply be sanitised and reused. .... A number of US firms already make this equipment. They could be encouraged, through guaranteed government contracts, to manufacture on a truly wartime footing, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, cranking out reliable equipment with the necessary quality standards they already achieve. ......... People are dying and many more will be dying soon, all while the White House wastes precious time with a confusing array of uncoordinated crisis responses. ........ It’s a phenomenal abrogation of responsibility to just let market forces run amok in a health crisis like this.

Coronavirus quarantine in India: no tests, stained toilets and broken beds force some to flee Some people have fled quarantine centres in India, complaining of inadequate facilities and the risk of getting the Covid-19 illness ...... But the Indian government says it is complying with WHO rules and improving facilities, saying old pictures are being circulated

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Glaring Holes In The Two Trillion Bill Coming Out Of Capitol Hill

  1. The check going out to everyone needs to be immediate. It can not be delivered three months from now. The majority of people in the US live paycheck to paycheck.
  2. This can not be a one-time payment. The payment has to be every month until the lockdown is no longer necessary. Or even a few months after that, considering job losses are widespread. Numerous businesses thought it prudent to push their workers onto unemployment benefits.
  3. I am not opposed to bailing out the airline industry. But that can wait a few months. No matter how many tens of billions you pump into that industry, no one is flying now. But it is good that the government is seeking equity for the money.
  4. The magic trillion that magically appears to give trillion-dollar zero-interest loans to banks is free money. And if it is not free, give the same to ordinary people. Give everyone a zero-interest $10,000 loan. Also, no matter how much money you pump, people are not going back to work for several more weeks.
  5. The biggest whole is it is missing the international dimension. No matter how much you pump the American economy, if the rest of the world stays out, this economy will not rise up again. If America can dole out two trillion to America, it should be able to dole out at least 20 billion to the world's poorest. And the best way would be direct payments to each individual.
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Coronavirus News (16)

Pelosi: Democrats eyeing more cash payments in next emergency bill
California coronavirus cases doubling every three to four days as US death toll nears 1,000
Cuomo says Senate's $2 trillion coronavirus bill would be 'terrible' for New York "Based on initial reports, New York State government gets approximately $3.1 billion," Lever said in the statement. "As a percent of our total state budget – 1.9% – it is the second lowest amount in the nation."....... "The gross political manipulation is obvious," Lever said. "Compounding this inequity is the fact that New York State contributes more to the federal government than any other state in the nation. It is just another case of politics over sound policy."....... More than 30,000 COVID-19 cases have been counted across the state as of Wednesday morning, accounting for more than half of all confirmed cases in the country. ........ The House bill would have given us $17 billion. The Senate bill gives us $3 billion
Congress likely to send taxpayers $1,200 checks in coronavirus aid. Here’s who qualifies However, you are still eligible for a check if you have no income or if you rely solely on non-taxable government benefit programs like Supplemental Security Income benefits, or SSI, from Social Security....... You also must have a valid Social Security number in order to receive the funds.
Coronavirus deals blow to Putin's plans to stay in power until 2036
The upcoming job losses will be unlike anything the US has ever seen
Quarantined In India: No Soap, Dirty Toilets, Not Enough Coronavirus Tests
Woman coughs on $35K of goods at Pennsylvania grocery store in ‘very twisted prank’
Coronavirus deaths reported in the US hit a high yesterday. Today will be worse
Trump team failed to follow NSC’s pandemic playbook
China: Pompeo has 'sinister motive' for pushing 'Wuhan virus' language
US push to include 'Wuhan virus' language in G7 joint statement fractures alliance
Video reveals lung damage in US coronavirus patient: 'People need to take this seriously'

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Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Coronavirus News (15)

NYC morgues near capacity, DHS briefing warns
New Orleans is next coronavirus epicenter, catalyst for spread in south, experts say
How the Pandemic Will End The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out...... the virus has spread to almost every country, infecting at least 446,000 people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not. ..... has disrupted modern society on a scale that most living people have never witnessed. Soon, most everyone in the United States will know someone who has been infected. ..... Rich, strong, developed, America is supposed to be the readiest of nations. That illusion has been shattered. Despite months of advance warning as the virus spread in other countries, when America was finally tested by COVID-19, it failed. ......... More transmissible and fatal than seasonal influenza, the new coronavirus is also stealthier, spreading from one host to another for several days before triggering obvious symptoms. ......... To contain such a pathogen, nations must develop a test and use it to identify infected people, isolate them, and trace those they’ve had contact with. That is what South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong did to tremendous effect. It is what the United States did not. ............. Overstretched hospitals became overwhelmed. Basic protective equipment, such as masks, gowns, and gloves, began to run out. Beds will soon follow, as will the ventilators that provide oxygen to patients whose lungs are besieged by the virus. .......... With little room to surge during a crisis, America’s health-care system operates on the assumption that unaffected states can help beleaguered ones in an emergency. That ethic works for localized disasters such as hurricanes or wildfires, but not for a pandemic that is now in all 50 states. ........ some worried hospitals have bought out large quantities of supplies, in the way that panicked consumers have bought out toilet paper. .............

the White House is a ghost town of scientific expertise. A pandemic-preparedness office that was part of the National Security Council was dissolved in 2018.

.......... Rudderless, blindsided, lethargic, and uncoordinated, America has mishandled the COVID-19 crisis to a substantially worse degree than what every health expert I’ve spoken with had feared. .......... “The U.S. may end up with the worst outbreak in the industrialized world.” ......... As of last weekend, the nation had 17,000 confirmed cases, but the actual number was probably somewhere between 60,000 and 245,000. .......... The U.S. has fewer hospital beds per capita than Italy. ......... By the end of June, for every available critical-care bed, there will be roughly 15 COVID-19 patients in need of one. By the end of the summer, the pandemic will have directly killed 2.2 million Americans, notwithstanding those who will indirectly die as hospitals are unable to care for the usual slew of heart attacks, strokes, and car accidents. This is the worst-case scenario. ..................... The first and most important is to rapidly produce masks, gloves, and other personal protective equipment. If health-care workers can’t stay healthy, the rest of the response will collapse. ........ invoke the Defense Production Act, launching a wartime effort in which American manufacturers switch to making medical equipment .......... after invoking the act last Wednesday, Trump has failed to actually use it, reportedly due to lobbying from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and heads of major corporations......... tag in the Defense Logistics Agency—a 26,000-person group that prepares the U.S. military for overseas operations and that has assisted in past public-health crises, including the 2014 Ebola outbreak. ............ a massive rollout of COVID-19 tests. ...........

On March 6, Trump said that “anyone who wants a test can get a test.” That was (and still is) untrue

.. Regardless, anxious people still flooded into hospitals, seeking tests that did not exist. ............... social distancing. .......... Fauci has advised every president since Ronald Reagan on new epidemics, and now sits on the COVID-19 task force that meets with Trump roughly every other day. “He’s got his own style, let’s leave it at that,” Fauci told me ............

even if social-distancing measures can reduce infection rates by 95 percent, 960,000 Americans will still need intensive care. There are only about 180,000 ventilators in the U.S.

......... “It could be anywhere from four to six weeks to up to three months,” Fauci said, “but I don’t have great confidence in that range.” ........... Even a perfect response won’t end the pandemic. As long as the virus persists somewhere, there’s a chance that one infected traveler will reignite fresh sparks in countries that have already extinguished their fires. This is already happening in China, Singapore, and other Asian countries that briefly seemed to have the virus under control. ......... three possible endgames: one that’s very unlikely, one that’s very dangerous, and one that’s very long. .......... the odds of worldwide synchronous control seem vanishingly small. ........ the virus does what past flu pandemics have done: It burns through the world and leaves behind enough immune survivors that it eventually struggles to find viable hosts. This “herd immunity” scenario ............. SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible and fatal than the flu, and it would likely leave behind many millions of corpses and a trail of devastated health systems. ................ The third scenario is that the world plays a protracted game of whack-a-mole with the virus, stamping out outbreaks here and there until a vaccine can be produced. This is the best option, but also the longest and most complicated. ........... it will take 12 to 18 months to develop a proven vaccine, and then longer still to make it, ship it, and inject it into people’s arms. ......... “we need to be prepared to do multiple periods of social distancing” ......... seasonal variations might not sufficiently slow the virus when it has so many immunologically naive hosts to infect. ......... immune citizens can return to work, care for the vulnerable, and anchor the economy during bouts of social distancing. ....... There’s no reason that the U.S. should let SARS-CoV-2 catch it unawares again, and thus no reason that social-distancing measures need to be deployed as broadly and heavy-handedly as they now must be. ..........

the virus might simmer around the world, triggering epidemics every few years or so.

.............. COVID-19 may become like the flu is today—a recurring scourge of winter. ........... About one in five people in the United States have lost working hours or jobs. Hotels are empty. Airlines are grounding flights. Restaurants and other small businesses are closing. ........ “We’re far more urban and metropolitan. We have more people traveling great distances and living far from family and work.” ........... After infections begin ebbing, a secondary pandemic of mental-health problems will follow. At a moment of profound dread and uncertainty, people are being cut off from soothing human contact. Hugs, handshakes, and other social rituals are now tinged with danger. People with anxiety or obsessive-compulsive disorder are struggling. Elderly people, who are already excluded from much of public life, are being asked to distance themselves even further, deepening their loneliness. Asian people are suffering racist insults, fueled by a president who insists on labeling the new coronavirus the “Chinese virus.” Incidents of domestic violence and child abuse are likely to spike as people are forced to stay in unsafe homes. Children, whose bodies are mostly spared by the virus, may endure mental trauma that stays with them into adulthood. .................. “My colleagues in Wuhan note that some people there now refuse to leave their homes and have developed agoraphobia” ...........

washing your hands for 20 seconds, a habit

that has historically been hard to enshrine even in hospitals, “may be one of those behaviors that we become so accustomed to in the course of this outbreak that we don’t think about them .............. Pandemics can also catalyze social change. People, businesses, and institutions have been remarkably quick to adopt or call for practices that they might once have dragged their heels on, including working from home, conference-calling to accommodate people with disabilities, proper sick leave, and flexible child-care arrangements.

“This is the first time in my lifetime that I’ve heard someone say, ‘Oh, if you’re sick, stay home’”

............ Many of the country’s values have seemed to work against it during the pandemic. Its individualism, exceptionalism, and tendency to equate doing whatever you want with an act of resistance meant that when it came time to save lives and stay indoors, some people flocked to bars and clubs.

Having internalized years of anti-terrorism messaging following 9/11, Americans resolved to not live in fear. But SARS-CoV-2 has no interest in their terror, only their cells.

............. When an administration prevaricates on climate change, the effects won’t be felt for years, and even then will be hard to parse. It’s different when a president says that everyone can get a test, and one day later, everyone cannot. Pandemics are democratizing experiences. People whose privilege and power would normally shield them from a crisis are facing quarantines, testing positive, and losing loved ones. Senators are falling sick. The consequences of defunding public-health agencies, losing expertise, and stretching hospitals are no longer manifesting as angry opinion pieces, but as faltering lungs. .................... After 9/11, the world focused on counterterrorism. After COVID-19, attention may shift to public health. ............ Despite his many lapses, Trump’s approval rating has surged. ......... The election of November 2020 becomes a repudiation of “America first” politics. The nation pivots, as it did after World War II, from isolationism to international cooperation. Buoyed by steady investments and an influx of the brightest minds, the health-care workforce surges. Gen C kids write school essays about growing up to be epidemiologists. Public health becomes the centerpiece of foreign policy. The U.S. leads a new global partnership focused on solving challenges like pandemics and climate change.....

In 2030, SARS-CoV-3 emerges from nowhere, and is brought to heel within a month.







AOC warns she may force House members to return for stimulus vote, potentially delaying final passage
Fox's Brit Hume says it’s an “entirely reasonable viewpoint” to expect that grandparents would be willing to die to protect the economy
Biden calls Trump's Easter back-to-business goal 'catastrophic'
The Changing World Order I believe that the times ahead will be radically different from the times we have experienced so far in our lifetimes, though similar to many other times in history. .......... I was seeing the confluence of 1) high levels of indebtedness and extremely low interest rates, which limits central banks’ powers to stimulate the economy, 2) large wealth gaps and political divisions within countries, which leads to increased social and political conflicts, and 3) a rising world power (China) challenging the overextended existing world power (the US), which causes external conflict. The most recent analogous time was the period from 1930 to 1945. ......... roughly 10- to 20-year transition phases between big economic and political cycles that occurred over many years (e.g., 50-100 years). ..... the 1930-45 period but also the rise and fall of the British and Dutch empires, the rise and fall of Chinese dynasties, and others ......... My biggest mistakes in my career came from missing big market moves that hadn’t happened in my lifetime but had happened many times before. ..........

most things—e.g., prosperous periods, depressions, wars, revolutions, bull markets, bear markets, etc.—happen repeatedly through time.

......... when I paid attention to the details I couldn’t see the big picture and when I paid attention to the big picture I couldn’t see the details........ there are only a limited number of personality types going down a limited number of paths that lead them to encounter a limited number of situations to produce only a limited number of stories that repeat over time .......... gaps in wealth and values led to deep social and political conflicts in the 1930s that are similar to those that exist now. ........ I have been going to China a lot over the last 35 years and am lucky enough to have become well-acquainted with its top policy makers. This has helped me see up close how remarkable the advances in China have been and how excellent the capabilities and historical perspectives that were behind them are. These excellent capabilities and perspectives have led China to become an effective competitor with the US in production, trade, technology, geopolitics, and world capital markets. ......... At the start of 2020, more than $10 trillion of debt was at negative interest rates and an unusually large amount of additional new debt will soon need to be sold to finance deficits. .......... all reserve currencies in the past have ceased to be reserve currencies, often coming to traumatic ends for the countries that enjoyed this special privilege. ........... Wealth, values, and political gaps are now larger than at any other time during my lifetime. By studying the 1930s and other prior eras when polarity was also high, I’ve learned that which side wins out (i.e., left or right) will have very big impacts on economies and markets. ........... printing money and buying financial assets (now called “quantitative easing”) also widen the wealth gap because buying financial assets pushes up their prices, which benefits the wealthy who hold more financial assets than the poor. ............... the rises and declines of all the major empires and their currencies over the last 500 years, focusing most closely on the three biggest ones: the US empire and the US dollar which are most important now, the British Empire and the British pound which were most important before that, and the Dutch Empire and the Dutch guilder before that. .......... six other significant, though less dominant, empires of Germany, France, Russia, Japan, China, and India. .......... important empires typically lasted roughly 250 years, give or take 150 years, with big economic, debt, and political cycles within them lasting about 50-100 years. ......... a sequential picture of the world’s evolution via the events that led the Dutch empire to rise and decline into the British empire, the British empire to rise and decline into the US empire, and the US empire to rise and enter its early decline into the rise of the Chinese empire. ........ the Chinese leaders who all study these dynasties carefully for the lessons they provide.
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