Wednesday, December 18, 2019

China Surveillance

China is ramping up its ability to spy on its nearly 1.4 billion people to new and disturbing levels, giving the world a blueprint for how to build a digital totalitarian state......... The United States and other countries use some of the same techniques to track terrorists or drug lords. Chinese cities want to use them to track everybody. ...... The rollout has come at the expense of personal privacy. The Times found that the authorities parked the personal data of millions of people on servers unprotected by even basic security measures. It also found that private contractors and middlemen have wide access to personal data collected by the Chinese government...... The surveillance networks are controlled by local police, as if county sheriffs in the United States ran their own personal versions of the National Security Agency. ..... the Chinese surveillance state is spreading past its borders. ..... “Each person’s data forms a trail” .... “It can be used by the government and it can be used by bosses at the big companies to track us. Our lives are worth about as much as dirt.” ..... This single system is part of a citywide surveillance network encompassing license plates, phone numbers, faces and social media information ....... how China turned one city into a virtual prison. ..... Even for China’s police, who enjoy broad powers to question and detain people, this level of control is unprecedented. Tracking people so closely once required cooperation from uncooperative institutions in Beijing. The state-run phone companies, for example, are often reluctant to share sensitive or lucrative data with local authorities ....... In recent years, Chinese police made use of fears of unrest to win more power and resources. ....... In Zhengzhou, police can use software to create lists of people. They can create virtual alarms for when a person approaches a particular location. They can get updates on people every hour or every day. They can monitor whom those people have met with, especially if both people are on a blacklist for some kind of infraction, from committing a crime to skipping a debt payment. ....... Police are not hiding their surveillance push. Even the perception of overwhelming surveillance can deter criminals and dissidents alike. ......... At the complex in Zhengzhou, residents were unfazed when told that the cameras and boxes were part of a sophisticated surveillance system. .......... Across China, unprotected databases hold information on students and teachers in schools, on online activity in internet cafes and on hotel stays and travel records. ....... Online data leakage is a major problem in China. Local media reports describe how people with access to the data sell private details to fraudsters, suspicious spouses and anyone else, sometimes for just a few dollars per person. ........ A technology contractor called Shenfenbao, for example, had access to real-time records of every person staying in some 1,200 hotels in the southern city of Xiamen. ....... Mr. Lin, who added that his company also offered algorithms to flag women who check into multiple hotels in one night for suspicion of prostitution. ....... Signs of a backlash are brewing. In Shanghai, residents pushed back against a police plan to install facial-recognition cameras in a building complex. In Zhejiang Province, a professor filed a lawsuit against a zoo after it required mandatory facial-recognition scans for its members to get access. ........... In the Shijiachi residential complex, where the facial recognition replaced key card locks, the rebellion has been powered by wire and plywood........ Agnes Ouyang was heading to work in Shenzhen last year when two police officers told her she had jaywalked and would need to show them her identity card. When she refused, she said, they grabbed her roughly and used a phone to snap a photo of her face......... Within moments, their facial-recognition system had identified her, and they issued her a ticket for about $3. ......

the country lacks a strong court system or other checks against government overreach. But outside the realm of politics, Chinese life could be freewheeling and chaotic thanks to lax enforcement or indifferent officials.

...... “Under Xi Jinping, we’re seeing the flowering of a police state.” ....... Chinese police now boast that facial-recognition systems regularly catch crooks. At a tourist island in the picturesque port city of Xiamen, authorities say they use facial recognition to catch unlicensed tour guides. Shanghai police have begun using helmets with a camera embedded in the front. Databases and procurement documents also show they search out the mentally ill, people with a history of drug use or government gadflies. ...........

“I said, ‘how did you find me?’” Ms. Ouyang said. “He said, ‘it’s easy for the police to find a person.’”

........ she worries about her future in a country where everything is watched and controlled........ “You’re uncomfortable with it,” she said. “But if you don’t do it, then there’s no possibility of living a life. There’s no way out.”
at No comments:
Labels: ,

Indian Citizenship Bill Protests: The Distrust Is Wide And Deep

Has India's Narendra Modi gone too far with controversial new citizenship law? Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian government has stripped the country's only Muslim-majority state of autonomy and rolled out a citizenship check in the northeastern state of Assam that effectively left nearly 2 million people stateless, many of them Muslims. ........ And when Modi backed the passage of a controversial new citizenship law, which prioritizes immigrants from three Muslim-majority countries of virtually every religious stripe over Islam, protests broke out across India. ........ To Modi's critics, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) -- which fast-tracks applications for immigrants, including Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians who arrived in India before 2015 -- has become

the most brazen example of a Hindu nationalist agenda aimed at marginalizing Indian Muslims

. ...... Since the law passed through both houses of Parliament last week, demonstrations have swept university campuses in at least nine states. Protesters have taken to the streets across Assam and Tripura over fears that large numbers of Hindus, who migrated to the region in the past few decades, will now be able to get their citizenship fast-tracked. Many there fear it will dramatically recast the religious and ethnic makeup of the northeastern states -- home to 200 distinct indigenous groups. .......

critics are worried it might pave the way for nationwide citizenship tests, stripping the rights of Muslims who have lived in India for generations but cannot prove their family's lineage -- turning countless people stateless.

........ Home Minister Amit Shah has repeatedly said that the government will roll out a national citizenship registry. ...... Modi tried to reassure the public on Monday, saying on Twitter that the new law "does not affect any citizen of India of any religion." And that "no Indian has anything to worry" about....... But when a citizenship registry took place in Assam earlier this year it left 1.9 million people off a list of Indian citizens. The government said at the time that no one would be declared a foreigner if they are not on the list, but that failed to temper concerns........ What is at stake is "the future of liberal democracy in India," Vaishnav said. "And it looks like a side, which has been asleep or at least silent, has really woken up and made sure that their voices are being heard." ...... The protests are sure to have caught Modi -- who has developed a reputation for being a Teflon premier -- somewhat off guard. ..... As protests roiled the country over the weekend, the government shut down the internet in several affected states in a bid to maintain law and order........ in spite of mounting grievances, analysts think it is unlikely that the BJP will scrap the law. "Modi still remains, head and shoulders, the most popular politician in India" ......

India lacks a foreplan for what comes next. Its detention centers do not have the capacity needed to house "millions of people that could potentially be caught up," if a nationwide citizenship check is rolled out

...... there appears to be no existing talks with neighboring countries, like Bangladesh, on the issue of deportation ....... "Are you going to see large numbers of Muslims detained or lose their citizenship? It is a game of wait and see."



India is fundamentally a secular, diverse country. Modi spent years cultivating the image of a Vikash Purush ("Development Man") before he ran for Prime Minister in 2014. His famous slogan is, Sab Ka Saath Sab Ka Vikas ("Development For All").

India is the largest remittance economy in the world, and it draws sustenance from the Gulf countries only a few hours away. And, of course, India is the second largest Muslim country in the world by population. At some level, partition was never possible, and it never happened.

Modi came in promising double-digit growth rates, but his second term has been marked by one anti-Muslim step after another. It might be okay to turn Kashmir into just another Indian state, but turning Kashmir into an open-air prison is a no-no. Indians are so into free speech, they argue when they are out shopping for vegetables. They haggle over price.

Before the amended citizenship bill came along, already close to two million Muslims in Assam had been declared stateless. So the new bill is making people feel like that number will go from two million to 20 million. That will make Syria look like the Bahamas. Xi with his Xinjiang will have nothing on Modi. Assurances to the contrary are falling on deaf ears.

I think a fundamental political realignment is on its way. And Maharashtra shows the way. Recently the Shiv Sena ditched Modi's BJP, and the Shiv Sena has been the BJP's staunchest ally over the decades. The pendulum has started to swing in the other direction. At this rate the next election slated for 2024 might see the BJP emerge as the largest but a minority party, with the second-largest, the Congress, propping the leader of a smaller party for Prime Minister. That might as well be Mamata Banerjee. That could be Prashant Kishor. The kingmaker should become king.

Too much political organizing, too much efficiency, Amit Shah style, can also be a bad thing if it stifles debate. It can lead to democratic erosion. The famously chaotic Congress party might be in luck now.

The Vikash Purush is now being seen as the Social Vinash Purush, a destructive force. Dominoes will start to fall much before 2024. Maharashtra might be the first of many to come. This could be Modi's last term, and I don't see Amit Shah ever becoming Prime Minister.

Prashant Kishor should take his party, the JD(U), to at least six states. He has the option to become the Indian Macron.

India Citizenship Bill Debate (2)
India Citizenship Bill Debate
Biometric ID And Citizenship Solutions
India's Contentious Citizenship Amendment Bill
2019 Photos
Has India Gone Crazy?















NRC demonetisation of citizenship, says Prashant Kishor A day after he said Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is against a nationwide NRC, senior JD (U) leader Prashant Kishor on Sunday said the idea of a nationwide NRC is equivalent to “demonetisation of citizenship” which is “invalid” until proved. The state BJP responded by saying NRC was its “future agenda” and there was no need for alliance partner JD (U) to engage in any propaganda over it. ........... The JD(U) leader, who had criticised his party for supporting the Citizenship Amendment Bill in Parliament, met Nitish on Sunday to sort out differences and came out with the party’s new stand — “NRC with CAB is dangerous and discriminatory”.

Sharad Pawar: Country needs alternative to BJP that stays in India Responding to a query of reporters in Nagpur on whether an anti-BJP coalition was in the making at the national level, the NCP president said, "There are some indications that anti-BJP sentiments are on the rise in some parts of the country." ...... Rahul Gandhi on Tuesday said he had met South Korea Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon during a visit to the country. His visit to South Korea came amid widespread protests over the amended citizenship law in various parts of India. ....... “It was expected that the unrest would remain confined to certain states.” ........ He said that contrary to the BJP’s expectation that the new law would be welcomed in certain states, it was being opposed in the party-ruled Assam too.

Jamia unrest: Priyanka, Prashant Kishor attack Centre
Citizenship Amendment Act dangerous if it goes along with NRC: Prashant Kishor
Arvind Kejriwal ropes in Prashant Kishor for Delhi Assembly elections

Nitish Kumar says no to Prashant Kishor's offer to resign Prashant Kishor has differences with Nitish Kumar supporting CAA. JD(U) Vice-President Prashant Kishore had also expressed his displeasure through a tweet and appealed to Nitish Kumar to not support the Citizenship Amendment Bill in the Rajya Sabha. But the JD(U) supported the Bill in both Houses of Parliament....... On Wednesday, Kishor had tweeted the legislation could turn into a lethal combo (with NRC) to systematically discriminate and even prosecute people based on religion.

Back With a Bang? Crafted by Prashant Kishor, How a Single Strategy Helped Mamata Regain Ground Ahead of Bypoll Test Since Kishor launched 'Didi Ke Bolo' on July 29, the TMC has not only managed to recapture several municipalities that had shifted to the BJP but also win the confidence of strong ground-level leaders to rejoin the party........ the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made massive gains in West Bengal, winning 18 of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats, up from just two in 2014. After that, her party lost seven municipalities to the BJP, as a majority of them switched over to the saffron outfit....... While the TMC was on the back foot, Banerjee, the West Bengal chief minister, had secretly picked political strategist Prashant Kishor on June 6 to get the party on track ....... After 54 days of Kishor's appointment, the outreach programme Didi Ke Bolo (Tell Didi) was launched on July 29, and in a span of nearly 180 days the TMC has not only managed to recapture all the seven municipalities which went to the BJP (due to a switchover) but also win the confidence of strong ground level leaders to rejoin the TMC........ His first major campaign was in 2011 when he secured the victory of Narendra Modi in Gujarat for a third term as chief minister. The 42-year-old trained in public health and worked with the United Nations for several years before entering the Indian political scene.......... He came under the spotlight when he helped Modi and the BJP win the 2014 general elections with innovative canvassing techniques: the chai pe charcha (talks over tea) campaign, 3D rallies, conclaves and social media programmes. Since then, Kishor has aided in electing to power JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Congress's Amarinder Singh in Punjab and the YSRCP's YS Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh. ........ As per the TMC’s internal assessment, more than 2,000 strong leaders – who actually have the capability to turn the tables – have come back to the Trinamool in the last six months. Most of them are booth leaders, having a great connect at the grassroots level.......... On November 7, Mamata Banerjee personally assessed the impact of Prashant Kishor’s ‘Didi Ke Bolo’ campaign in Bengal. The review meeting was held at Trinamool Bhawan in North Panchanna Gram where all the party leaders including MLAs, MPs and district presidents were asked to be present. The campaign provides a platform to the people to directly lodge complaints with the chief minister. Anyone can reach out to her by calling ‘9137091370’ or by logging onto www.didikebolbo.com, with their suggestions and problems....... more than 30 lakh people have made calls, expressing their suggestions and grievances. Banerjee was impressed with the impact on the ground level...... More than 250 party workers are engaged round the clock not only to ensure each and every grievance/suggestion reaches the chief minister but also list them in various trackers and buckets for swift resolution. As suggested by Kishor, there are separate buckets for all the government schemes for people and multiple trackers for each to keep an eye on how many issues have been resolved and the time taken.



2024: Possible Lok Sabha Composition

BJP: 150

Anti-BJP Coalition (ABC):
Congress: 60
JD (U): 50 (25 in Bihar, 25 outside Bihar)
Trianmool Congress: 40
Shiv Sena: 20
LJP (Paswan): 6
RJD: 10
AIADMK: 20
DMK: 15
YSR Congress: 20
BJD: 20
BSP: 30
SP: 30
NCP: 10
CPI (M): 10
TRS: 10
TDP: 5
AAP: 4
Total: 360
Others: 33


at No comments:
Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

"Extreme Inequality Is Like Economic Pollution"

What could the US afford if it raised billionaires' taxes? We do the math “Every billionaire is a policy failure.” So says a key adviser to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Ocasio-Cortez herself says that it’s wrong to have a “system that allows billionaires to exist” alongside poverty. And the New York Times columnist Farhad Manjoo recently called for us to “abolish billionaires”. ...... Today, the top 1% of Americans own more wealth than the bottom 90% combined. ....... But what does it really mean? Is it setting a cap on the amount of wealth one household can own? Or does it entail something a little more structural: unrigging the system that gave us billionaires and instead creating an economy in which everyday people get the benefits from the growth that they have created. ........ The richest 1% own nearly 40% of all the wealth, but pay only 20% of all the taxes. ............

Inequality makes bubbles more likely, it undermines the foundations for innovation and productivity, and it weakens and destabilizes consumer demand.

........ taxing the super-rich would generate revenue that could be put to better uses than letting that money sit in a Bahamian bank account of a billionaire. .......

Over the next 10 years, the richest 1% of American households will take home about another $22tn, after federal taxes. Their average annual post-tax income will be about $1.7m.

........ Three trillion dollars in new revenue is enough to make college free at all public universities, make a massive new investment in infrastructure along the lines of what Senate Democrats have proposed, and triple the budget for the National Institutes of Health. Needless to say, all of these investments would pay enormous economic dividends. .......... Doing that would generate about $8tn in revenue, which is enough to send every household in the bottom 75% a check for nearly $8,500 every year for 10 years........ As of 2016, the wealthiest 1% of American households owned about $27tn in total, an average of about $23m per household. ........ A tax that took about 1% of that wealth each year would yield about $4tn over the next decade. To put that amount in perspective, $4tn is more than the federal government will spend over the next decade on foster care, school lunch, school breakfast, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, food stamps, unemployment compensation, supplemental security income for the elderly, blind people and those with disabilities, and all the tax credits for working families combined........ Rich people are neither the source of economic prosperity, nor will they decide to go off and form their own society in Antarctica or 10 miles off the coast of San Diego...... If we disincentivize hoarding at the top, money will more easily flow to the workers and families who really drive economic growth. ........ And before long, instead of a few hundred billionaires taking ever more, we could instead have a thriving middle class, widespread economic security, and real opportunities to give the next generation a better life.

at No comments:
Labels: , , , , , ,

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

India Citizenship Bill Debate (2)

India Citizenship Bill Debate
Biometric ID And Citizenship Solutions
India's Contentious Citizenship Amendment Bill
2019 Photos
Has India Gone Crazy?

The bill could have been specific, like Minority Refugees From Afghanistan, Pakistan And Bangladesh Act 2019. That would have meant this bill is nothing to do with the 200 million Muslims in India who are citizens, whether or not they have papers. And the government could have in the aftermath given specific numbers like, we think about 30,000 or 300,000 or three million people will qualify under this.

That specificity would still have raised questions. Why only these three countries? Why not all neighboring countries? Why not Nepal? Sri Lanka? Bhutan? Burma? Maldives? What about Muslim minorities from the three countries? And they would have been valid questions. But at least the 200 million Muslim citizens of India would have not been part of the question.

But right now the protests roiling the nation are putting two and two together and crying four. There is the government attempt to create a national registry of citizens, apparently for the first time. I can see the point behind such a registry. A country has to know who its citizens are. But then to that you add a bill comprehensively called the Citizenship Amendment Bill, and a lot of people are seeing this as an attempt not to welcome foreign refugees, but to mass detain millions of legitimate Muslim citizens of India who know no other country. This is no minor blind spot.

There might be religious persecution in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. There are those who say there is religious persecution inside India. There have been lynchings in recent years, a new phenomenon in Indian politics.

Citizenship is a major issue in Nepal, and it is a Hindu majority country. The southern plains of Nepal were part of India when the Mughals ruled Delhi. Then the British gifted that belt to Nepal in reward for the Nepali help to put down the 1857 mutiny. Millions of people in that belt to this day are denied Nepali citizenship for being "Indian origin." And India helplessly watches, even though it claims it has better relations with Nepal than any other country. What gives?

Religious persecution in neighboring countries can not be made an internal matter of India. It requires supra-national efforts.

Being welcoming of refugees is a good policy for every nation. But I don't get the impression the protests are anti-refugee. The protesters largely fear the bill will be used to carry out large scale religious persecution inside India.

India can not become a global power with such small-mindedness.

And in the backdrop you have a tanking economy. To many the whole exercise feels like a diversion from that tanking economy.





India citizenship law protests: All the latest updates Supreme Court delays hearing of pleas challenging the new law to January 22 amid widespread protests across the country. ....... Protests against India's new citizenship law have spread across the country as 200 million Muslims fear the legislation is part of the Hindu nationalist government's agenda to marginalise them. ...... In the northeastern parts of India, the protests are mainly against allowing any "foreign migrant" from Bangladesh - irrespective of religion - to settle in the region....... On December 15, more than 100 students were injured and dozens arrested after police stormed New Delhi's Jamia Millia Islamia (JMI) and Aligarh Muslim University (AMU), located 130km (81 miles) from the capital, to disperse the protests against the contentious law........... India's Supreme Court has refused to stall the implementation of the contentious Citizenship (Amendment) Act, which has triggered massive protests across the country. ...... The court sent a notice to the federal government, asking it to respond to nearly 60 petitions challenging the constitutional validity of the law. The next hearing will be held on January 22, Reuters news agency said......... The petitioners argue that religion cannot be the basis of granting citizenship to undocumented migrants. The new law, they say, is against the secular principles of India's constitution.......... India's main opposition Congress party and the Asom Gana Parishad party, an ally of the ruling BJP in Assam state, are among those who have filed the petitions. .......... In the country's north, police said 113 people were detained for objectionable social media posts after violent demonstrations there....... A delegation of opposition leaders, led by Congress party's interim president Sonia Gandhi, has met Indian President Ram Nath Kovind over the Jamia Millia Islamia violence......... "We have an example in Delhi where police entered Jamia women's hostel and dragged them out [and] mercilessly beat students," Gandhi told reporters .......... Addressing an election rally in poll-bound Jharkhand state, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said the opposition parties are "urban naxals firing off your [protesting students'] shoulders". ........ "Urban naxals" is usually used by India's right-wing forces to describe activists working on tribal and minority rights......... Leader of the Congress party, Priyanka Gandhi, daughter of interim president Sonia Gandhi and sister of senior party leader Rahul, sat for a protest at the India Gate war memorial in New Delhi against the police crackdown on student campuses....... "The prime minister should answer what happened at the university yesterday. Whose government beat up the students?" .........

Bangladesh's Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen has said his government has asked India for information on undocumented Bangladeshis so they could be repatriated

...... "The Indian government has been telling us repeatedly that they aren't pushing anyone into Bangladesh. We asked them to inform us about anyone living there illegally. We have a standard procedure for this issue. They will be repatriated as per the procedure," he told journalists in Dhaka........... Prime Minister Modi blamed vested interest groups for "creating the disturbance".

"I want to unequivocally assure my fellow Indians that CAA [Citizens Amendment Act] does not affect any citizen of India of any religion... This Act is only for those who have faced years of persecution outside and have no other place to go except India," he tweeted.

....... "The CAB [Citizenship Amendment Bill, now a law] and NRC [National Register of Citizens] are

weapons of mass polarisation

unleashed by fascists on India. The best defence against these dirty weapons is peaceful, non-violent Satyagraha [insistence on truth]," tweeted Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. "I stand in solidarity with all those protesting peacefully against the CAB & NRC."



Has India's Narendra Modi gone too far with controversial new citizenship law? Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian government has stripped the country's only Muslim-majority state of autonomy and rolled out a citizenship check in the northeastern state of Assam that effectively left nearly 2 million people stateless, many of them Muslims. ........ And when Modi backed the passage of a controversial new citizenship law, which prioritizes immigrants from three Muslim-majority countries of virtually every religious stripe over Islam, protests broke out across India. ........ To Modi's critics, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) -- which fast-tracks applications for immigrants, including Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians who arrived in India before 2015 -- has become

the most brazen example of a Hindu nationalist agenda aimed at marginalizing Indian Muslims

. ...... Since the law passed through both houses of Parliament last week, demonstrations have swept university campuses in at least nine states. Protesters have taken to the streets across Assam and Tripura over fears that large numbers of Hindus, who migrated to the region in the past few decades, will now be able to get their citizenship fast-tracked. Many there fear it will dramatically recast the religious and ethnic makeup of the northeastern states -- home to 200 distinct indigenous groups. .......

critics are worried it might pave the way for nationwide citizenship tests, stripping the rights of Muslims who have lived in India for generations but cannot prove their family's lineage -- turning countless people stateless.

........ Home Minister Amit Shah has repeatedly said that the government will roll out a national citizenship registry. ...... Modi tried to reassure the public on Monday, saying on Twitter that the new law "does not affect any citizen of India of any religion." And that "no Indian has anything to worry" about....... But when a citizenship registry took place in Assam earlier this year it left 1.9 million people off a list of Indian citizens. The government said at the time that no one would be declared a foreigner if they are not on the list, but that failed to temper concerns........ What is at stake is "the future of liberal democracy in India," Vaishnav said. "And it looks like a side, which has been asleep or at least silent, has really woken up and made sure that their voices are being heard." ...... The protests are sure to have caught Modi -- who has developed a reputation for being a Teflon premier -- somewhat off guard. ..... As protests roiled the country over the weekend, the government shut down the internet in several affected states in a bid to maintain law and order........ in spite of mounting grievances, analysts think it is unlikely that the BJP will scrap the law. "Modi still remains, head and shoulders, the most popular politician in India" ......

India lacks a foreplan for what comes next. Its detention centers do not have the capacity needed to house "millions of people that could potentially be caught up," if a nationwide citizenship check is rolled out

...... there appears to be no existing talks with neighboring countries, like Bangladesh, on the issue of deportation ....... "Are you going to see large numbers of Muslims detained or lose their citizenship? It is a game of wait and see."

at No comments:
Labels: , , , , , , ,

India Citizenship Bill Debate



The bill is roiling the nation. It is a volatile situation. Some of those defending the bill are saying this will not impact the 200 million Muslims in India, this will only impact about 30,000 refugees from the named three countries. If that is true, why is that point not being emphasized? The communication is faulty. The bill's language itself is faulty. The bill's name is faulty. The name is too comprehensive to give that kind of meaning.

Biometric ID And Citizenship Solutions
India's Contentious Citizenship Amendment Bill
2019 Photos
Has India Gone Crazy?

at No comments:
Labels: , , , , , , ,

Is The Trade War Over?

Having a leader who is neither trusted by our erstwhile friends nor feared by our foreign rivals reduces our global influence in ways we’re just starting to see. Trump’s trade war didn’t achieve any of its goals, but it did succeed in making America weak again.
at No comments:
Labels: , , , , ,

Sunday, December 15, 2019

Bloomberg's Political "Innovation:" Money Heavy

"Money talks."
-- Mike Bloomberg

‘Mayors for Mike’: How Bloomberg’s Money Built a 2020 Political Network Michael Bloomberg is relying on powerful city leaders as allies in his presidential campaign. Several have received grants, training and support packages totaling millions from his foundation. ...... Mr. Tubbs had reason to feel kinship with Mr. Bloomberg. Last year, he graduated from a mayoral training program that Mr. Bloomberg sponsors at Harvard University. Mr. Tubbs had attended a conference co-sponsored by Mr. Bloomberg’s philanthropic foundation in Paris in 2017, and was featured in its 2018 annual report. And this past June, Mr. Bloomberg’s foundation donated $500,000 to an education reform group based in Stockton, a struggling inland city in Northern California......... Bloomberg Philanthropies, which has assets totaling $9 billion, has supported 196 different cities with grants, technical assistance and education programs worth a combined $350 million. Now, leaders in some of those cities are forming the spine of Mr. Bloomberg’s campaign: He has been endorsed so far by eight mayors — from larger cities like San Jose, Calif., and Louisville, Ky., and smaller ones like Gary, Ind., representing a total of more than 2.6 million Americans............

the extraordinary nature of Mr. Bloomberg’s candidacy

...... After an onslaught of self-funded television ads, he reached 5 percent support in two national polls this week........... Mr. Bloomberg is one of the richest people in the world, with a net worth estimated at more than $50 billion....... “Unlike Donald Trump, Mike Bloomberg has a real foundation that does real work addressing people’s serious needs ........ One graduate of the Bloomberg program at Harvard is a leading opponent in the presidential race — Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., whose city also received $1 million from a Bloomberg program in 2018.



To skip the first four contests entirely, that is something. That has never been attempted before.

When you are Mayor of NYC, you are already holding the second most high profile political office in the land.

He was a Democrat. Then he was a Republican. Then he was an Independent. Now he is a Democrat. The claim to being "basically nonpartisan" rings true.

He is formidable. No doubt. As to how this will play out, we will just have to wait and see.

Mike Bloomberg’s money buys him a very different kind of campaign. And it’s a big one. After two weeks in the presidential race, Mike Bloomberg now employs one of the largest campaign staff rosters, has spent more money on ads than all the top-polling Democrats combined and is simultaneously building out ground operations in 27 states........ with the Bloomberg campaign, it is not at all clear what established rules apply, if any. Everything he is doing is so unlike what has been done for decades that it is difficult to decipher how voters will react............ Rather than focus on the early states, he is campaigning for votes deep in the 2020 calendar, in places where voters are less tuned in to the nominating process. Rather than worry about a budget, he has put no limit on the money he is prepared to spend. Rather than run in a Democratic primary by appealing to ideological die-hards or partisan flag bearers, he describes himself as “basically nonpartisan.” ........ As a former three-term New York mayor, he comes to the race with more executive governing experience and has represented more voters than most of his competitors, as well as a philanthropic record he has emphasized in campaign ads while pushing several core liberal priorities, including increased gun regulation and the reduction of carbon pollution. His campaign message is focused on his own competence and electability............ no one has ever run a national primary campaign since Kennedy in 1960.” ........ there are hundreds of staff members working remotely or out of the temporary campaign headquarters in one of Bloomberg’s Beaux-Arts limestone mansions on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, where the blinds rise and fall with time of day, the food is free ......... The campaign has been offering field organizers salaries of $6,000 a month, a 70 percent premium from the going rate of $3,500 paid by the campaigns of ........ and Gary Briggs, a former top marketing executive for Facebook and Google......... Since his campaign launch on Nov. 24, Bloomberg has spent or reserved about $60 million in television and radio ads, with no sign of slowing down. Taken together, the top four polling Democrats in the race — former vice president Joe Biden; South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg; Sanders and Warren — have spent about $28 million on similar ads all year.......... He has also purchased $4.6 million of Google ads ...... On Facebook, his spending over the past week ran at more than $170,000 a day, 2½ times the level of President Trump’s reelection campaign and about three times more than Tom Steyer, the other billionaire Democrat seeking the nomination. All of his digital ads are focused on increasing his support and recruiting staff........... When he entered in November, he decided to skip the first four contests, which tend to pick presidential nominees by showing early momentum and redirecting the national focus.......... Instead, his operation is aimed at the 25 states that will award nearly two-thirds of the available convention delegates over a 15-day period that begins March 3........

it is something no one has ever tried to do before.”

......... Rival Democratic strategists remain skeptical of the effort, as they focus on finding a way for their candidates to catch fire in the early states. Bloomberg’s campaign skills are rusty ....... The Trump campaign, by contrast, has chosen to attack Bloomberg early, with Trump tweeting about “Mini Mike Bloomberg” and announcing he would bar reporters for Bloomberg’s eponymous news organization from his campaign events....... Through the Bloomberg campaign and a separate anti-Trump digital effort he is funding, a campaign adviser said, Bloomberg has already spent more than $8.3 million in television and digital ads in six core swing states: Florida, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina............ since then, Bloomberg, who has always cast himself as a competent manager able to build and run large organizations, decided that Biden and the rest of the field were not up for the job of beating Trump........ “He is not afraid of them winning,” said Howard Wolfson, another top political adviser. “He is afraid they are not going to win.” ......... In 2018, he said, he gave away $767 million. Recipients have included groups such as Planned Parenthood, the Sierra Club, smoking-cessation efforts and a number of grant projects for cities and mayors around the country........

Bloomberg used the platform to assail Trump — saying he was the only New York billionaire in the race

....... “The way I see it, Texas is the biggest battleground state, and I’m going to fight like hell to win its 38 electoral votes,” Bloomberg said.



P.S. I got to meet him once. Him, and one other billionaire standing next to him. This was an event at the Bloomberg Foundation on the Upper East Side where the LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman was the featured speaker. Curiously the person I talked to most at the event was Arianna of the Huffington Post, a sleep specialist and crusader.



Late in 2015, I wrote a long memo that I dropped off in person at that same location urging him to run. About 20 pages.
at No comments:
Labels: , ,

Trade War: US, EU, China, Japan

The trade war is a proven recipe for a global recession or worse and possible political mayhem. Trump's trade war with the EU bores ill for global trade because the EU has none of the China issues, supposedly. Bilateral trade is a primitive concept. It is like ditching digital money and going back to silver coins.

A global depression would create a new wave of fascism across the planet. Irrationality will come to rule.

The only hope is that all this saber-rattling is posturing and will soon give way to common sense. But there are no such signs yet on the horizon.

The idea that every country and every group of countries have been unfair to the US on trade ...... the whole idea of "fair trade" has been that the US has been unfair to the rest of the world, especially to the poorest countries. Racist white nationalism will also have you believe that you feel sorry for the whites because they have suffered so much from racism.

Brexit? Aexit?

The sensible thing to do would be to attempt WTO reform. Killing the WTO takes us back to the 1930s. So far the global economy's resilience built through trade has held. But that resilience can stretch only so much.

Trump's trade temper tantrums are insanely destructive. And his traditionally pro-trade party is going all the way with him. It is strange. This might not be the first time politics trumps sound economic theory.

A trade war with Europe would be larger and more damaging than Washington’s dispute with China Data from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative shows that in 2018, the U.S. imported $683.9 billion of EU goods and $557.9 billion from China. ..... There have already been tariffs on European steel and aluminum — which led the bloc to impose duties of 25% on $2.8 billion of U.S. products in June 2018, and, there’s an ongoing dispute regarding Airbus and Boeing — but experts believe a wider spat with Europe would be much more damaging than the current tit-for-tat with China. ....... “In 2018, the U.S. exported more than three times more to the EU than to China,” Hense said, adding that the region could therefore hit back hard against Washington. ..... “The rules of international trade, which we have developed over the years hand-in-hand with our American partners, cannot be violated without a reaction from our side” ...... Both economies are slowing down, and the cyclical effect of the tariffs is likely to be pretty strong ..... Speaking at the U.S. Senate in mid-July, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that “crosscurrents, such as trade tensions and concerns about global growth, have been weighing on economic activity and the outlook.” .......

the business models of multinational firms is in danger as a result of a potential U.S.- EU trade war

...... “Much of the (EU-U.S.) trade takes place within firms rather than between them … (as a result) when you impose tariffs between the U.S. and Europe, you end up raising the prices for consumers and complicating the way goods are assembled in both places, as in the U.S.-China case, but you also end up disrupting the profitability of the business models for large multinationals,” he said. ...... “Since many, if not most of those large multinationals are American, this is going to put a further drag on the U.S. economy” ....... “A trade war between the U.S. and Europe would be more challenging than a trade war between the U.S. and China because it would weaken U.S. multinationals, reduce the size of the markets U.S. firms can access, and create incentives for U.S. firms to divest from their foreign assets and so unleash further foreign competition”.....“In other words, it would undo all the structural advantages that successive U.S. administrations created since the end of the Second World War”

How Trump May Finally Kill the WTO

at No comments:
Labels: , , , , , , , , ,
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)