Sunday, October 13, 2019

Gangster Words Spoken By Xi Jinping: Shattered Bones

These words are gangster. I am surprised they are coming out of the mouth of a president in this day and age. Shattered bones?



I worry for Hong Kong. I do. No, I don't fear a military crackdown. But what is already happening is bad enough.

Let me explain the military crackdown part. This is not me saying what should happen. This is not me being an advocate. This is me talking like a political scientist, or analyst, or student of political science, or simply a blogger. Should Beijing go for military action in Hong Kong, that will start a chain reaction that will lead to a collapse of the communist party inside China. The tariffs that only the US has imposed all major countries will impose. That will give China its first recession in decades. There will be sudden mass unemployment and subsequent mass unrests. There is no police, no intelligence service, no surveillance camera, no facial recognition software, no tank, no gas canister that will save the regime beyond a certain point. And that is sad because it is unnecessary.

The Soviet collapse lead to a major contraction of the Russian economy. It led to the rise of the mafia. Living standards fell across the board. By population Russia is like a small province of China. The same level of instability will be too much if it happens inside of China. Too much for China, too much for the world.

I wish the protests were completely non-violent. But then I also wish the Hong Kong Police followed their own guidelines and did not engage in uniformed as well as ununiformed vigilantism.

But the onus is on Carrie Lam and Xi Jinping. They have the power to decide that they will simply sit down with the leaders of the movement and negotiate on their five demands. The five demands stay within the one country two systems paradigm. What seems to be the problem?

A Marxist is supposed to be a scientist who faces data. The data is out in the streets of Hong Kong. This is a golden opportunity for Xi Jinping to give China its third revolution of political reforms.





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UAE's Federal National Council

I just learned for the first time that there is something called the Federal National Council in the UAE, which is where Dubai is. And I am like, Da what now? How come I never heard of this before? What is the Federal National Council? And who is Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan? Is he the dude who gets called MBZ? The person who is one step senior to the ruler of Dubai? I have seen pictures. Heck, I have seen him in a video posted on the YouTube channel of the Crown Prince of Dubai where he attends a wedding. And what a decree! To the women in the US, that is a pipedream. They don't see that happening for another 100 years!

The president of the UAE just decided that half his parliament is going to be female. Just like that. And I don't see the UAE society having hiccups and constipations over this.



10 most commonly reported but wrong 'facts' about Dubai: Get it right International media usually get its facts wrong on Dubai. Here are the Top 10 examples ...... President His Highness Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s decree to increase women’s representation in this month’s Federal National Council (FNC) elections to 50 per cent, shows that there is a drive for gender equality.

So, first, let me look up Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan. I know Bin means son of. As in, Bin Salman means son of Salman. That much I know. Jesus was referred to as Jesus Bin Joseph. As in, Jesus, Son Of Joseph. And thank you Google. Here we go. Hello Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan.





I was right. This is who I had in mind.

Now let me look up UAE's Federal National Council. Hello Google.

Federal National Council
All you need to know about UAE's Federal National Council
479 candidates listed for UAE Federal National Council Elections

The UAE is some kind of a federation, and that is interesting because that means a bunch of monarchies came together and decided to form a country. It was a voluntary act. It is not like the ruler of Abu Dhabi conquered Dubai and formed the UAE. I don't know of another example of such a formation. 13 American states came together and formed the USA. But that was a few hundred years ago.

Federal National Council the federal authority of the United Arab Emirates formed to represent the general Emirati people.[1] The FNC consists of 40 members with advisory tasks in the House of Legislative Council. Twenty members are elected by the citizens of the UAE through an electoral college, while the remaining twenty are appointed by the rulers of each emirate ..... The National Election Committee (NEC) conducts the election and is authorized to nominate the electoral college members....... The Federal National Council (FNC) was formed under the Provisional Constitution of the United Arab Emirates in 1971 as a permanent component of the country's governing structure, which also includes the Supreme Council, President, Cabinet and Judiciary. Before 2006, all members of the FNC were picked by the Rulers of the emirates. ...... Throughout its history, the Council has influenced the Federal Government to draft laws. Original draft laws from the Cabinet are amended by the Council to suit the needs of the citizens which they represent....... The FNC is responsible under the Constitution for examining, and, if it wishes, amending, all proposed federal legislation, and is empowered to summon and to question any Federal Minister regarding Ministry performance. One of the main duties of the FNC is to discuss the annual budget. Specialized sub-committees and a Research and Studies Unit have been formed to assist FNC members to cope with the increasing demands of modern government......... Not all UAE nationals were allowed to vote or run for office. 6,689 out of some 800,000 Emirati citizens in the country were eligible to take part in 2006 election. Those eligible were chosen by the rulers of the emirates....... By the end of 2003, all forty members of the FNC were male......

Election officials billed the polls as a trial run they hoped will pave the way for universal suffrage in the coming years.

....... 2011 parliamentary election had an electoral college of 129,274 members, nearly 20 times more than in 2006. The new electoral college includes about 12% of UAE nationals. Approximately 35% of the members were under 30 years of age and 46% were women. 35,877 voters casted their vote, making a turnout of 27.75%. ........ Many candidates pledged to provide better education and health care and more housing for young UAE nationals. They also promised to strengthen the UAE identity and culture. Several candidates used social media networks such as Facebook to present their plans...... The electoral college increased from 129,274 in 2011 to 224,279 in 2015. All candidates ran as independents. During election campaigning, many candidates focused on social issues, promising to provide better housing and more health services. Others focused on job creation and better educational services. 79,157 voters casted their vote. Turnout increased from 27.25% to 35.29%. ......... Eligible voters outside the country were allowed to vote for the first time in 2015 ...... The electoral college increased from 224,279 in 2015 to 337,738 in 2019. All candidates ran as independents. 117,592 voters casted their vote. Turnout slightly decreased from 35.29% to 34.81%.
All you need to know about UAE's Federal National Council The Federal National Council (FNC) is the consultative council, the parliamentary body of the UAE. It was formed as per the provisions of the UAE's Constitution. The main functions of the FNC as per Articles 89 to 92 include: Passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws including financial bills, examining the Annual General Budget draft law and the draft law of the final accounts, discussing international treaties and agreements, discussing general subjects pertaining to the affairs of the federation and offering recommendations. The draft law or bill passed by the FNC becomes a law only after approval by the President. .......

As per a directive by the President, His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Emirati women must occupy 50 per cent of the FNC seats.

........ In 2006, Sheikh Khalifa approved the Supreme Council Resolution No. 4 of 2006, which revised the method of selecting the representatives of the emirates by combining the process of election and appointment. Thus, the Ruler's Court in each of the seven emirates would appoint half of the members while the electoral bodies representing the citizens would elect the other half. ....... A member of the FNC cannot at the same time hold a public office in the UAE including ministerial portfolios. ...... the FNC shall hold an annual ordinary session lasting not less than seven months. The council sits from the third week of October, thus reducing the length of the parliamentary recess to coincide with the Cabinet's work and allowing further cooperation between the government and the FNC. It may be called into extraordinary session whenever the need arises........ The meetings of the FNC are open to the public but may be held in camera if so requested by the government's representative, the President of the Council or one-third of its members......... The members of an emirate's electoral college are chosen by the Ruler of that emirate. ........ Members can vote from both inside and outside the UAE. ............ Voting outside the UAE is done manually through ballot papers, at the polling stations set at UAE embassies and consulates........

Some 495 Emiratis are competing for 20 FNC seats

....... Over 337,738 Emiratis will vote during the polls, marking a 50.58 per cent increase from 224,281 electoral college members in 2015........ "Working hours for mothers in the private sector should be reduced to six from eight to enable the women get time to look after their small children," said Al Mazrouei, adding that widows should also be given more support to educate their orphaned children. ......... The 56-year-old Emirati has raised his concerns about

the issue of high unemployment among young Emirati graduates

...... "I am using all acceptable platforms, social media and the mainstream media to reach out to voters. It's tough but exciting but I am hopeful I will make it to the FNC," said Al Marar, adding that he wants to be elected to the country's parliament so that he could raise the need for fight against terrorism and radicalism through education and control of drug abuse among youngsters through awareness campaigns....... "Many young Emiratis are unemployed despite having qualifications required in the job market. And this really bothers me a lot," said Al Marar...... Al Rahoumi, who served as the head of the House's Emiratisation Committee, said he also wants to see government forcing private and government firms, to give vacant positions to Emiratis who have the required qualifications before considering expats.
479 candidates listed for UAE Federal National Council Elections

I am looking at this and thinking, this is a wonderful opportunity for a political experiment.



Just from reading these few articles that are not even that in-depth, and can not be considered scholarly, I see a few things.
  1. The monarch(s) of the UAE voluntarily decided that half of the FNC will be elected. All 40 used to be nominated. Also, they started with the electoral college idea. And at each subsequent election, the size of that electoral college has been expanded. The stated goal all along has been universal suffrage, meaning, every citizen votes.
  2. 20 of the 40 are nominated by the monarch, true. But already it has been decided by royal decree that half of the 40 will be female. I gather that applies both to the elected and the nominated. If you ask me, this is huge. Name me one western democracy where half of a parliament is female. I don't know one. There might be some tiny country hiding somewhere in Europe that has that. But if they do, please educate me.
  3. Even the 20 nominated by the monarch, I am sure, are as per advice by whatever council of advisors is in place. It is not like one morning the monarch wakes up and starts coming up with names. Down the line, it is possible for the monarch to set definite criteria. The president of India does that. He nominates some people to the Upper House in India. That is how the cricket superstar Sachin Tendulkar ended up there. Word is, he has poor attendance!
  4. If you look at the history of the American democracy, the biggest fear the so-called Founding Fathers (dead white men) had was mob rule, not monarchy. They created a republic, not a democracy because they feared mob rule. They created a bicameral legislature because they feared mob rule. They created three co-equal branches of government because they feared mob rule. They created plenty of room for what they explicitly referred to as "the cooling of passions."
  5. As a place like the UAE marches towards universal suffrage, I think this provides a wonderful opportunity to create a cutting edge government. It is like Indians who did not have landlines went straight to mobile phones. Rwanda is the top country for drones today precisely because they don't have roads and bridges.
  6. Only a few short weeks ago when I started talking to an investment firm in Bahrain, I googled up that country. To my surprise, the monarch of Bahrain had also put in place a parliament. But the Bahrain experience has been that when you create a directly elected group of people, you might end up with a bunch of people who have this particular interpretation of Islam. In the west the word they use is Islamist. I am not a big fan of the word. (Because, try saying Christianist!) But they do come across as intolerant and oppressive. During the golden age of Islam that lasted 700 years, there was this tremendous thirst for knowledge. And the acquisition of knowledge is not possible in an environment where scholars can't peacefully put out their thoughts and debate and discuss. Disagreement is normal. And you don't have to agree with someone, but you do have to make them feel like you heard them, and you understood what they had to say. There is no knowledge without that basic discourse. For a parliament to be a parliament, that basic discourse has to be present. A lot of people worry today that basic discourse is an endangered species in American democracy. In America, a lot of people no longer talk to each other. They just talk past each other.
  7. It is not enough to have elections. It is very important that you cultivate the right political culture.
  8. A lot of the problems in American democracy, frankly, are spiritual.
  9. In this day and age, a debate is not enough. You need informed debate. And you need fast action. When the CEO of Facebook showed up in Washington DC, the people in Silicon Valley were laughing. There seemed to be this huge chasm between Silicon Valley and Capitol Hill.
  10. In DC they have this thing called the CBO, Congressional Budget Office. It is supposed to be nonpartisan. The CBO crunches the numbers. Lawmakers in DC can be amazingly parochial. One lawmaker once said, "I have been to Europe once, and that is enough!"
  11. It has to be noted that the Arab countries were doing Universal Basic Income before the West even had a name for it.
  12. Respect for the major faiths is not about saying, I will respect your God, and so you should respect mine, but about facing the fact that there is but one God, and that God is infinite, and that infinite God has spoken to a few different peoples. There is no God but God. God is infinite. What that means is, God is always going to be more and bigger than whatever you know God to be.




I will have more thoughts to share down the line. Frankly, I am salivating at the prospects of being able to come up with thoughts and suggestions. For one, I'd like maximum cooperation to create a city inside the city of Dubai.

Ends up I can't wait. So let me share some early thoughts right away.

  • This 50% female thing is really big. Because gender is the hardest issue any western democracy struggles with. Or any political system, period. I am like, really! Everything else that needs to be done is less tough compared to this.
  • The framework that is already in place is that the FNC (that I will simply call the UAE parliament) is headed towards its 20 elected members being popularly elected by all citizens of the UAE. That roadmap is already in place. And I think that is great.
  • 20 members not being directly elected is actually a good thing. Also, this is not two chambers. All 40 of them are in the same chamber. That is not the norm around the world. But I am seeing the merits of it. Down the line I can see the president putting clearer rules and guidelines in place saying these are the guidelines I use when I look to nominate people. Published guidelines.
  • Just like the President of the United States, the President of the UAE also has veto power. A law passed by the parliament has to pass the president's desk. I will have to see instances of this happening, I will have to take a closer look as to how that plays out in practice.
  • What about local government? Are there local governments in the UAE? Are there elections at the local level? How does that work?
  • What is the best possible way to take Dubai to the next level of economic growth? I believe that is not only a political question, but also a corporate question, also a culture question, also a technology question. What is the best possible city culture for tech and innovation? I'd like to answer that question in practice in Dubai by helping create a city inside a city, Dubai's very first tech city. Microsoft just hung a sign. They did not put any tech behind that signage.
A few weeks ago I learned sex outside of marriage is illegal in Dubai. People in many parts of the world will tell you, sex outside of marriage is wrong. But illegal? Well, where does that knowledge come from? It comes from God. Look up the Ten Commandments. Therein the same thing is implied. Why? The God of infinite knowledge has done his "thought experiments," has thought through every possible action and reaction and consequences, and laid down that decree on sex and marriage.

God's command is not arbitrary. You deviate and things don't work anymore. It is like saying, you have to respect Newton's Laws Of Motion if you want to take a rocket to space. You can't ignore those laws and still expect to carry a rocket to space. It is not possible to create an advanced society of any kind without fundamental respect for marriage.

And there are concrete implications. The day Dubai gets rid of the law that says sex outside of marriage is illegal will be the beginning of the end of Dubai. I hope the need to experiment and find out is not felt. Instead, you rely on faith. God has already thought this through.

Dubai's law that sex outside of marriage is illegal is not primitive. It is cutting edge. I'd like that law applied to global human trafficking. I'd like that law applied to human trafficking inside the USA.







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Friday, October 11, 2019

Middle East: Cold War, Cold Peace, Warm Peace



The formula for peace between India and Pakistan is fairly easy. That is not to say peace is easy. It is not. But the formula is straightforward. Pakistan could not militarily capture an acre of Indian land and vice versa. And so you both agree to turn the Line Of Control into the final border, and then compete with each to bring as much democracy and economic growth into the two Kashmirs as possible. There are two Punjabs. There can be two Kashmirs.

The formula for peace in Afghanistan is also fairly straightforward. Something very similar was done recently in Nepal.

The Cold War between Iran and Saudi Arabi is complex. I am not worried about Iran. And I am not worried about Saudi Arabia. But the whole world worries about Yemen and Syria. The abject human tragedy in both places plays on TV screens across the world.

The domestic politics in Saudi Arabia looks opaque to me. The domestic politics in Iran looks opaque to me. I am sure I could read up and learn a few things. But I happen to have a day job.

At some point, the Cold Warriors US and the Soviet Union just decided to face the fact that since one could completely annihilate the other, war just did not make any sense. And so we had Reagan and Gorbachev talking to each other. There were grand summits. They met face to face.

The US is in no position to invade Iran. The US is unwilling and unable. Although the military-industrial complex in the US always appreciates being able to sell a few more weapons. And the world knows Saudis have cash. Truckloads of cash. I don't even mind that trade.

But the tragedies in Yemen and Syria are too much.

At some point, the Saudis and the Iranians are simply going to have to face the fact that war is not a realistic option. Unlike the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, Iran and Saudi Arabia are not in a position to wipe each other out. But if they were to go to war, the world economy will have a heart attack. The world is so dependent on oil. Oil prices will skyrocket and the global economy will see a Depression worse than that of the 1930s. Should that happen, you will see the rise of all sorts of fascists in many parts of the world. There will be chaos.

And so the leaders of Iran and Saudi Arabia should hold summit meetings just like Reagan and Gorbachev. They should unconditionally discuss all outstanding issues. They should bring to end all proxy wars. They should end the arms race. They should both recognize Israel's right to exist. They should both commit to finding a creative solution to Palestine. And they should both focus on mutual trade and tourism.

Iran and Saudi Arabia can not wipe each other out. They should also stop the fantasy that they can affect regime change in each other's countries. That fantasy has come with serious human costs in nearby states with weaker state presences.

The politics in no country stays at a standstill. Ultimately the people in each country decide.








The Nation State In Peril
The Middle East Cold War
The Money Primary
And Now Iraq Erupts
Hong Kong: The Mask Ban Can Not Be Implemented
Hong Kong: Downturn?
Dubai, Pakistan, Peace, Prosperity
Imran's Peace Gamble In Afghanistan
The Impeachment Drama
South Asians Working In The Gulf
Masa, MBS, And The Broader Investment Climate
The Importance Of Being Kind
MBS Is Right About The Possible War
I Am Rooting For Imran To Succeed In Pakistan
Formula For Peace: Iran-Saudi-US, Taliban-US, India-Pakistan
Imran Wants To Lift 100 Million Pakistanis Out Of Poverty
To: The Crown Prince Of Dubai
Dubai's Remarkable Economic Transformation

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Sunday, October 06, 2019

The Nation State In Peril

I am looking at the (1) incarceration epidemic in the US, (2) the million detained Uighurs in Xinjiang, China, and (3) Kashmir having been turned into an open-air prison by the Indian government in Delhi, and I am thinking, the nation-state, as we have known for a few hundred years now, is in need of an overhaul. What we have is not working.

We need 4-5 layers of government on the planet. The local, the state, the national, and the global. Most countries could use federalism. And sometimes local is not enough. Some small cultural units need autonomy within that local/state government.

When the Prime Minister of India meets the President of China in their annual two-day summit, do you think they just hang out? No. Their foreign ministries have been doing the homework for weeks in advance. Bureaucracies are involved. Four-Layered governance on the planet will make for more efficient bureaucracies.

The nation-state is not in a position to tackle the big challenges of the day. Not climate change, not terrorism, not global poverty.



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Saturday, October 05, 2019

The Middle East Cold War







New Middle East “Cold War” Can’t Be Explained by Sunni-Shia Divide

Sunni versus Shia’ makes for a simple headline, but does not do justice to the complexities of the new Middle East cold war”

....... a “cold war” in which Iran and Saudi Arabia are “playing a balance of power game.” ....... While “the current confrontation has an important sectarian element,” to understand it simply through this lens would “distort analytical focus, oversimplify regional dynamics, and cause Iran and Saudi Arabia’s motives to be misunderstood.” The two regional powers are certainly “using sectarianism in that game,” Gause argues, “yet their motivations are not centuries-long religious disputes but a simple contest for regional influence.” He also stresses that “the regional cold war can only be understood by appreciating the links between domestic conflicts, transnational affinities, and regional state ambitions.” .......

A key factor in this new cold war is the weakness of state governance throughout the Middle East.

The Saudi-Iranian “contest for influence plays out in the domestic political systems of the region’s weak states,” or states in which “the central government exercises little effective control over its society.” Gause emphasizes that “it is the weakening of Arab states, more than sectarianism or the rise of Islamist ideologies, that has created the battlefields of the new Middle East cold war,” by pushing regional actors to “support non-state actors effectively in their domestic political battles within the weak states of the Arab world.” ........ the U.S. should “prefer order over chaos” and support states that provide effective governance “even when that governance does not achieve preferred levels of democracy and human rights.” ...... The American invasion of 2003 took the lid off Iraqi politics, allowing Iran (most successfully), Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other regional parties to play into Iraqi politics. They did not have to force themselves onto the scene. Local Iraqi parties, fighting for dominance in the new Iraq, invited foreign support. The same is now happening in Syria. Once players in the regional game, both Iraq and Syria are now playing fields. The new Middle East cold war is being played out in the domestic politics of these newly weak Arab states.

Beyond Sectarianism: The New Middle East Cold War: Full Report



The very real human tragedies in places like Yemen and Syria are reason enough for the regional and the global powers to seek to ontrack the regional competition for power.
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The Money Primary





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And Now Iraq Erupts

While the world is still trying to figure out Hong Kong, Iraq erupts.





The young people in Hong Kong as well as Iraq see that there is no future for them. The story that was always told about, get an education, get a job, get married, get a place to live, that whole story seems to get out of reach. There is no delivery in sight.

The solutions necessarily have to be radical and large scale. The same old, same old will not do.

Giving every single human being an ID on the Blockchain, putting in place a 3% wealth tax on all of the $300 trillion in wealth today to pay for a Universal Basic Income for every human being on earth: that is the solution. And it requires something radical like the formation of a world government.

30-30-30-10: A More Thoughtful And Egalitarian Formula For Equity Distribution In Tech Startups For The Age Of Abundance
The Blockchain: Fundamental Like The Internet
The Blockchain Rumble
The Character Called The Tech Entrepreneur

Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival
Towards A World Government
AOC 2028      

Eat Sleep Exercise
Pray Love Meditate Eat Sleep Exercise: Body Mind Heart Soul: Recipe For Good Health At All Four Levels

The Centrality Of The Gospel
Forgiveness: The Bicycle For Your Soul
Finding God In The Major Religions
Flying Cars, The Internet, Nanotubes, And Service To God
Table Talk (a novella)
Atheism Is Arrogance, Ignorance And Bondage

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Friday, October 04, 2019

Hong Kong: The Mask Ban Can Not Be Implemented

It is not possible to implement the mask ban that Carrie Lam has just imposed upon Hong Kong. And thus this will lead to further erosion of credibility for the Hong Kong leadership. This is a bad political move. There is no police solution to the situation. There is only a political solution.

Enhanced repression will downgrade Hong Kong as a business destination.





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