Friday, October 04, 2019

Hong Kong: Downturn?



Looks like Beijing had decided to up the ante on repression. Now the Hong Kong Police are firing bullets. One person has already died. This is a volatile situation. This is a route that either leads to Beijing losing, or winning and still losing. Maybe Donald Trump is not the only leader who looks backward. Xi Jinping also talks of past events. It is sad that a political solution is not being sought.

How do you expect the face mask ban to be implemented?

It Is Time for the United States to Stand Up to China in Hong Kong Tweets aren’t enough. Washington must make clear that it expects Beijing to live up to its commitments—and it will respond when China does not. ........ As the Chinese Communist Party commemorates 70 years of the People’s Republic of China by parading its military hardware in Beijing, the people of Hong Kong are struggling for their rights. For months, the world has watched as protesters in Hong Kong stood bravely in the face of police and state violence. They deserve our support......... What is happening in Hong Kong illustrates the challenge posed by China and the limitations of the United States’ current approach. In many cases, the United States will need to cooperate with China—for example, on climate change—but it must also stand firm when its interests and values are threatened.

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Raising The Stakes On Non Political Solution In Hong Kong



Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam invokes emergency powers, announces face mask ban

Beijing and Carrie Lam are obviously nowhere near looking at the other four demands. They seem to think there is a police soltion to the whole situation. They want to tire out the protestors. They want to wait it out.

Your opponent will do what your opponent will do. But you have to chalk out your own strategy.

Leaderless is not a movement. Disorganized is not a movement. It bothers me that the Hong Kong protestors choose not to be politically organized.

The mask is a human reaction to the surveillance cameras. People don't want Big Brother to know where they are all the time. That invasion of privacy is so total. This is a global issue.
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Dubai, Pakistan, Peace, Prosperity

I have a soft spot for Imran. And I have been reading a lot about Dubai recently.

Dubai is rich. Pakistan is poor. But both need peace. The complex political tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been costing Dubai big money.

And there is no way out for Pakistan unless there is peace on multiple fronts. Pakistan needs peace in Kashmir. Pakistan needs peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan needs peace between Iran and the Saudis. Pakistan needs peace in Yemen. In Syria. Pakistan needs peace between India and China.

India and China are like China and America. They can do war and peace at the same time. But India and China do need to settle their long border.

My knowledge of the Persian Gulf countries is much less than my knowledge of Pakistan. But I have been reading. Right now the domestic politics in many of these countries look downright opaque to me.

Saudis can't bring about regime change in Iran. Iran can't bring about regime change in Saudi Arabia. And so the formula for peace has to be co-existence. To the Americans I say, even if your goal is regime change in Iran, the formula that would work would be maximum trade and maximum tourism. The nuclear deal that Obama put in place was a floor on which more deals could have been built. For example, Yemen. The Saudis and the Iranians should meet and say, let's get out of Yemen. Let's engineer a peaceful political process instead. Israel should be part of the deal because it has the greatest interest in no nuclear spread. Also, it claims it is best at catching if Iran lies. Well then, why are you not part of the deal? To make sure Iran does not lie and cheat.

I was watching an interview of the Dubai Sheikh a few days ago. And he is pretty clear. He wants peace with Iran. Because he wants to trade with Iran. It makes sense to me.

Dubai is a beacon of hope. It needs to further prosper.




Imran's Peace Gamble In Afghanistan
The Dubai Sheikh Is A Business School Case Study
The Impeachment Drama
South Asians Working In The Gulf
Masa, MBS, And The Broader Investment Climate
The Biggest Reason For Lifting The Curfew In Kashmir
The Importance Of Being Kind
MBS Is Right About The Possible War
I Am Rooting For Imran To Succeed In Pakistan
Formula For Peace: Iran-Saudi-US, Taliban-US, India-Pakistan
Imran Wants To Lift 100 Million Pakistanis Out Of Poverty
The Blockchain Will Make A Global Wealth Tax Possible
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Imran's Peace Gamble In Afghanistan



The Taliban of Afghanistan remind me of the Maoists of Nepal. At their peak right before they entered the peace process, the Maoists held sway over 80% of the territory in Nepal. That does not mean they were ruling 80% of the country. But they had managed to drive out the state's presence in 80% of the country, which was meager in the first place. Right before the peace process the Maoists and the Nepal Army were at war. And a ceasefire was not an option. Because the seven political parties in Nepal were not in power. The king was.

And so the Maoists needed to declare a unilateral ceasefire. They had to then join an alliance with the political parties, who they had been targeting for years. Targeting in the Maoist language means killing.

So you declare a unilateral ceasefire with the Nepal Army who, by the way, never officially reciprocated. Then they form an alliance with the political parties. Together you wage a street movement in the capital city to drive the king out.

The six parties come to power. Then you come to power after you agree to put your army into cantonments. And you integrate the two armies and become a political party.

Fairly complex.

But I believe that is the formula also for Afghanistan.

Imran Khan is best positioned to deliver. I don't believe Donald Trump or Mike Pompeo understand the ground situation in Afghanistan. Terrorist bad, democracy good kind of language is not going to make headway. That is as much nuance as Bernie's Medicare For All.

The Taliban are a fighting force. And those fighters drawing salaries as soldiers in the Afghan Army would be a good way to get them out of the political equation. The nonfighters have to form a political party and be willing to contest elections. The elections could be for a constituent assembly to write a constitution for Afghanistan. Unless they agree to accept what is already in place. They might even emerge the largest party. If they do, they get to come to power. Two Maoists became Prime Ministers in Nepal. Why not?

I believe this is the way out.

Pakistan can not prosper unless there is peace in the neighborhood. The only person both the Taliban and the Afghan president are willing to talk to is Imran. The Americans just want to get the hell out. They just want reassurance that all hell will not break loose when they leave. A negotiated peace settlement will deliver that.

Imran Khan does not really need Donald Trump's involvement. Trump could be part of the final step in the process when Imran might be in a position to say, you can safely leave now.

In Nepal, there was this critical juncture right before the six parties (was it six or seven, I forget) and the Maoists formed an alliance. Some Maoists blew up a bus. That would have been an excellent reason for the six parties to walk away. But that walking away would have been a mistake. You have to understand, not all Maoists were happy. Many were feeling betrayed by their leadership. They were supposed to defeat the parties, not form an alliance with them. But walking away at that juncture would have been a bad idea.

Imran should tackle Afghanistan, then Kashmir, then Iran. Somewhere along the way, he should get the Nobel, but Greta first.

I was thinking perhaps Imran can not make moves between Iran and Saudi Arabia. But now I think he is in a very good position to do so. I think the Saudis overestimate the American willingness and ability to inflict military pain on Iran. The Americans primarily want to sell military hardware. They are not interested in actual war. If the Saudis want peace, they have to engage in direct talks with Iran, and perhaps Imran can mediate. Co-existence is the idea. Since finishing each other off is not an option.



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Thursday, October 03, 2019

Dubai: Videos (6)

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Dubai: Videos (5)

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The Dubai Sheikh Is A Business School Case Study



It is interesting that 10 days ago I could not have recognized his picture. And now I am digging up details on him.

Dubai has to be compared to Singapore. It is to the Sheikh's disadvantage that he was born royal. That might make people give him less credit than he deserves. But Dubai has seen unprecedented transformation while he has been actively leading. Success was not guaranteed. The results are visible and measurable.

Oil money is not enough explanation. Venezuela also had it. Many countries in Africa have been mineral-rich. But we have not seen the transformation.

I am just beginning to read up on it. I will have more to say as I read more.

What has already happened is interesting enough. But to me what is of greater interest is what is possible next. I look at all of Dubai and I see a helipad, figuratively speaking. The infrastructure has been built. But now the city could truly take off.

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The Impeachment Drama



I have been trying my best to avoid having to read news about the impeachment. I mean. It is such a waste of time. I'd rather read about the fourth industrial revolution. I'd rather look at pictures of Dubai, which I have done a lot of these past few days. And, mind you, I don't own a TV. I never have. So it's not like I can't avoid it, the TV is on. It shows up. I do visit YouTube. You can find many educational videos on YouTube. Like TED Talks. But then, the way things on the internet are organized, the impeachment shows up. You might be watching a video on nanotechnology, and then, when you are least suspecting, an impeachment video shows up as a suggested video somewhere on the screen. And algorithms are going to rule the world. Watching impeachment news is like watching a sewer. It's not fun.

But I like comedy. I have watched a lot of political news through comedy. But now comedy is my only good option. I don't think I have the stomach to watch (or read) regular news about the impeachment.

Donald Trump is the most serious challenge to the institutions of American democracy. The founders and their successors thought they had built it pretty good. And then comes Donald Trump.

Institutions are not easy to build. And they can take generations to build. But ultimately it is about human nature. And that is a constant struggle.

Politics is interesting to me. But the political part that is interesting is, the Senate Republicans are going to defend the indefensible, and give the Senate over to the Democrats. The thing is, Mike Pence himself might get impeached. Did not Donald Trump say he was on that same call? And that double whammy would be a first for the American democracy.

Could Nancy Pelosi really become the first woman President Of The United States? Hey, she might even seek re-election!

I don't think the Republican Senate will be able to protect Donald Trump this time. Already 55% of Americans want him out. When that number climbs to something like 70, even Mitch might have to give.

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Dubai: Videos (4)

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Wednesday, October 02, 2019

Dubai: Videos (3)

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Dubai: Videos (2)



South Asians Working In The Gulf
Dubai: Videos (1)
Dubai: Photos (4)
Dubai: Photos (3)
Masa, MBS, And The Broader Investment Climate
Dubai: Photos (2)
Dubai: Photos (1)

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