Friday, September 13, 2019

Navigating The Hong Kong Protests

Xi Jinping made a rather dramatic reference to the Long March of the Mao era at one point during the trade war back and forth. Recently he has made inferences to the Cultural Revolution. Maybe he is as backward looking as Donald Trump.

When Karl Marx wrote what he wrote, capital had too much sway, labor was powerless. But that was a long time ago. After 1989 China tried to give capital more room at the table, instead of no room at the table. That led to the largest reduction of poverty in world history.

But the CCP has been miserly on political reforms. If they were to take a scientific approach to what is happening in Hong Kong, they have a wonderful opportunity to preserve one country, two systems, and to usher a new era of political reforms inside China.

That half the Hong Kong legislature in Hong Kong is unelected capitalists, why is that not a problem for the Beijing communists?

Xinhua warns 'end is coming' for Hong Kong protesters China issued a stern warning to Hong Kong protesters as well as the West on Sunday, reiterating that it will not tolerate any attempt to undermine Chinese sovereignty over the city.

China does not understand Hong Kong's leaderless movement On August 30, key pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong, including Joshua Wong and three lawmakers from the opposition camp, were arrested. After months of protests both peaceful and violent against a proposed extradition bill and police brutality, the Hong Kong government, instead of making concrete concessions, has decided to step up repression. Protesters responded with more determined action.

Xi brings in 'firefighter' Wang Qishan in bid to calm Hong Kong China's Vice President Wang Qishan, a close aide to President Xi Jinping and the former enforcer of the president's anti-corruption campaign, is believed to have played a key role in the recent developments in Hong Kong.

Trump on thinner political ice than Xi in trade war Domestic politics, however, make the U.S. president's position a lot dicier than it looks. ..... The opening salvos had come in July 2018, when Trump imposed 25% additional tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, including industrial machinery, out of the roughly $550 billion worth of products the U.S. buys from China every year. Washington launched a second barrage the following month, targeting another $16 billion worth of imports, and escalated its attacks that September by adding $200 billion in goods to the list......... The latest and fourth batch of U.S. tariffs increased the total by $110 billion to $360 billion....... And despite rampant speculation that Xi was facing growing criticism within the Communist Party, the party's secretive annual summer meeting in the seaside resort of Beidaihe offered no signs that the president was in a political bind....... Only two incumbent U.S. presidents have failed to be reelected since the end of World War II -- Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush -- and an economic downturn was a major reason in both cases......... If the economy starts to seriously suffer, with little leeway for major monetary expansion, Trump's reelection chances could come down to achieving a truce in the trade war....... Rushing to compromise would also pose risks, though, with the U.S. Congress as a whole now adopting a tough posture on China....... his penchant for surprises should not be underestimated. Frustrated with Beijing's stalling tactics, he might expand the battle from trade to currency and the financial markets. ...... In that case, Trump would head into the presidential race with his hard-line China policy intact, while pinning blame for the sputtering economy on the Fed and Beijing........ If Beijing moves to crack down on the demonstrators, using force like it did in response to the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, China could be hit with international sanctions that would squeeze its economy hard....... That would turn what was a bilateral trade dispute into an all-out cold war between the two largest economic powers, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy.

Hong Kong: A Crisis For Capitalism As Much As Communism

Hong Kong 2019: This Is 1989 For Asia
Hong Kong Should Take The Plunge
Universal Basic Income (aka Freedom Dividend) Is Not Free Money
Could Andrew Yang Become President?
Hong Kong Protests: The World Should Not Watch A Possible Massacre

The knee jerk way to interpret what is happening in Hong Kong is, well, China wrong, America right. Both are wrong. The 20th-century dichotomy no longer explains aspirations. Capitalism is in crisis in America. Communism is in crisis in China. And the trade war between the two puts the whole world in crisis mode. Something fundamental is not working. There is a need for a rethink.

A big reason capitalism is not working in Hong Kong is because the Hong Kong capitalists control half the legislature. That is not sustainable. You can't have a Chief Executive who answers to Beijing but not to the ordinary citizens of Hong Kong.

That is where you start.

But then you quickly have to move to things like Universal Basic Income.

There is an acute housing crisis in Hong Kong. It is a big city problem. Singapore does it much better. Hong Kong can learn from Singapore. But it does not have the option to learn unless it can elect its own leaders.

Election day should be a public holiday. People should be able to vote from their phones. Or maybe no holiday, and a week-long voting period.

Citizens also have the responsibility to regularly meet in-person to engage in political dialogue.

Hong Kong is showing the way for the 100 biggest cities in the world. This is a turning point in world history. New Yorkers should also march. Not for Hong Kong, but for New York. Demand UBI. Demand voting rights for all residents, citizen or not.



Hong Kong’s protests are just the tip of the iceberg: capitalism is in crisis across the globe While Hong Kong is embroiled in unprecedented social and political upheaval, a silent revolution is unfolding in the capitalist heartland of the world...... This transition from “shareholder capitalism” to “stakeholder capitalism” is more than semantics. ..... The lopsided emphasis on maximising profits has been responsible for a disproportionate share of social, environmental and political problems in contemporary society – notably, extreme economic inequality, distortion of human needs, environmental destruction and climate change, corporate tax evasion and, above all, the integration of economic power with political power...... Hong Kong has for a long time had one of the highest Gini coefficients in the world, rising from 0.533 in 2006 to 0.539 in 2016. The number of poor households reached 530,000, with more than 1.3 million people living in poverty (over 15 per cent of the population)...... In May 2018, the total net worth of the wealthiest 21 tycoons amount to HK$1.83 trillion, approximately the same as Hong Kong’s fiscal reserves. But, for low-income workers, real wages have only increased 12.3 per cent in the past decade....... In a city in which seven out of the 10 richest people are in the real estate business, financial assets are the major source of income polarisation........ Hong Kong’s case is special in that its government is not accountable to the populace; Lam was “elected” by a 1,200-strong committee and is expected to follow Beijing’s line....... These same issues plague the capitalist West. Because of the presence of a nominal democratic system, some of the mass revolt has found expression in outcomes such as Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as US president, as well as the Yellow Vest movement in France. ....... their fate is bound up with the fate of “capitalist” development in China, which is also heading towards a major crisis...... There is a huge amount of repressed unrest on the mainland; it is just not visible because of the powerful social control mechanisms in place: China’s budget for maintaining social stability is already greater than its defence budget and it is still growing....... All this points to the urgency of reinventing capitalism.



Trump on thinner political ice than Xi in trade war
Xi brings in 'firefighter' Wang Qishan in bid to calm Hong Kong

News: Hong Kong, Plan B, Mainland, Bubble Tea Summit

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Hong Kong 2019: This Is 1989 For Asia

And the best route is not the route that was taken in Russia in 1989. The collapse was spectacular, true. That was good news for the victor. But that saw a decade of economic contraction for Russia, and falling living standards. There was half baked democracy. The mafia swooped in. There are people who argue Russia is not even a democracy.

That is why my first choice is one country, two systems. But it does require that Beijing makes peace with full-fledged democracy in Hong Kong. If not, two countries, one system, democracy, might become the new slogan.

The US political system is bubbling with complaints about how things are. Money is too influential in American politics. Maybe Hong Kong does not want a copycat system. In fact, Hong Kong seems to have a bigger money in politics problem. The Hong Kong billionaires put the Koch brothers to shame.

And that is why I think the Hong Kong protestors need to become politically organized and engage in intelligent debates and discussions on the kind of political system they might want. Maybe they can build something new. Maybe they can build something that progressives in America dream about.

Freedom has to ring. But the call for freedom can not be naive. This ongoing protest movement in Hong Kong should seek inspiration from Eastern Europe in 1989, true. But it also should learn. The post-1989 transition in Russia could have been handled much, much better.

Voices inside the Chinese Communist Party that might have democratic aspirations need to rise. They need to make a case that the one country, two systems that was promised to Hong Kong must be delivered. That 2047 is not when Hong Kong becomes like China, but that is when China becomes like Hong Kong, if not earlier.

Boris Yeltsin was a member of the communist party in Russia. Who are the Boris Yeltsins of China?

Let Boris be an inspiration. But let him also be a warning. He messed up the transition big time.

Xi Jinping having declared himself president for life might have been the moment when the Chinese Communist Party signed its death warrant. The 10-year term that was in place was perhaps a better arrangement. Now the Chinese have a system where you can not challenge that one guy. This system will break, but it will not bend. Looks like it will break.

I know so little about internal Chinese politics, I don't seem to know the name of any other politician besides Xi. Okay, there is that Vice President guy who leads the trade talks. And the Foreign Minister. But other than that, I don't seem to have names and faces. Who are these people?










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