An Intelligent Conversation On Trade

I am not a big fan of Donald Trump. The guy is asinine. But you do deal with the office.

There is a need for an intelligent conversation on trade. Donald Trump is a hammer looking for a nail. He is arguing against sound economic theory. At some level, his moves can be seen as a fascist's fantasy for a Great Depression. Come, Depression, come!

He has beef with China, but he also has beef with India. He has beef with India, but he also has beef with Germany.

The WTO has prevented many wars. Countries that trade seldom go to war. Instead of saying China lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, Donald Trump says China stole hundreds of billions of dollars. Minus China, the US was looking at a Great Depression in 2008. It is good to have some large economies in the world.

Trade talk has to be forward-looking. The pre-WTO world had much strife.

Giving every human being on earth a biometric ID that rests on the Blockchain, and giving everybody access to credit and financial services, in general, is what would be forward-looking. The next generation of trade talks will be about allowing human beings to move from anywhere to anywhere else on earth. That would immediately add trillions of dollars to the global GDP.

Intellectual property laws written in the US Congress can not be imposed upon the world. That truth is no clearer than with medicine. What we need is a world government, a global parliament.

The US Health Care Mess

And when I say mess, don't get me wrong, I am not saying there is an ebola epidemic in the US. I mean that in an organizational chart sense. When it comes to health care in the US as a whole, I think it is a scenario of the left hand does not know what the right hand is doing.

Describe to me how the system works right now. You can't. It is not like the curry on the plate was made with this one recipe, and now you are going to use a different recipe tomorrow.

You can't just throw more money at the problem. You can't just 100% privatize. You can't just 100% nationalize.

It is the biggest chunk of the economy. If you think about it, social security and medicare are such big parts of the US economy, as is defense, and you have health care, and is America not already a socialist country? The government in the US is bigger than it is acknowledged.

Good luck figuring it out.

Bernie: Reagan Or McCain?

Ronald Reagan lost in 1976, ran again and won in 1980. Is that Bernie? Or McCain lost two times running for president. Is that Bernie? I am not counting out Bernie. He brings brute force to some basic progressive ideas. He might as well cross the line. It could be a Bernie-Warren ticket, with Kamala Harris as Secretary of State, or something, or Attorney General.

I know a thing or two about the greed of the health care industry. I’ve been fighting them my whole life. https://t.co/M9C2uEiSvm

— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) August 2, 2019

lol pic.twitter.com/AFWGUQhQcb

— Waleed Shahid (@_waleedshahid) August 2, 2019

I know EXACTLY how @ewarren feels here in trying to explain to Chris that what matters most is the net outcome. This argument is as true for M4A as it is for @AndrewYang's $1k/mo UBI. It does not matter if your taxes go up, if as a result your disposable income goes up even more. pic.twitter.com/iZqU4PYLm0

— Scott Santens (@scottsantens) August 2, 2019

President: Bernie Sanders
Vice President: Elizabeth Warren
Attorney General: Kamala Harris
UN Ambassador: Tulsi Gabbard
Secretary of Labor: Andrew Yang
Secretary of Urban Affairs: Pete
Texas Governor: Beto

Who did I leave?

Corey Booker: Senator from New Jersey (you stay right where you are!)

Bernie jogs. Elizabeth drinks green tea. That would be their secrets.

Bernie: Reagan Or McCain? https://t.co/FbxoeDXa9k @BernieSanders @ewarren @_waleedshahid @AOC @justicedems @sunrisemvmt

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) August 2, 2019

WTO Reform: A New Round Of Trade Talks Are Necessary

Bilateral will do no good. This is like India and Pakistan going bilateral on Kashmir. No progress has been made in 70 years. If the US and China insist on resolving this on their own, there might be no progress.

This is not about saying the US is right about China, or China has a point. This is about the very mechanism of talks, the very framework. The issues come later.

China might not be a western-style democracy. But Germany is. France is. The UK is. Italy is. India is a democracy. You want all of them at the table.

Infographic: Here’s How the Global GDP Is Divvied Up

The US seems to be 25% of the global economy, but that is very far from 100% or even 51%. The European Union, Japan, India, and China are important players. By now the supply chains in the global economy are so complex, it makes little sense to not give the major trade powers seats at the table. China and the US can not do this alone.

There is economic theory around trade. Much of it supports trade. But then there is the politics of trade. And that can sometimes decouple from the economic theory. If your goal is to fill up the streets of Hong Kong with protesters, maybe the trade war is a good idea. But that does not seem to be the stated goal. The US trade deficit might be more to do with the US dollar's position in the global economy.

A prolonged trade war might cost Donald Trump the 2020 election. He might lose even without it. The polls show him at 42% and trailing Joe Biden in every battleground state. The dude might get impeached. Maybe there is no firewall for him in the US Senate. Maybe it will be Pence versus Harris in 2020. Who knows?

There is political peril for both sides. The Chinese army out in the streets of Hong Kong will seriously undermine the Chinese Communist Party. This is not 1989. You can not cover it up.

The biggest political peril is that the two powers drag the global economy into a major recession, and that gives rise to all sorts of fascists around the world.

The Third Democratic Debate

Looks like we are moving towards 10 candidates on the debate stage for September. (Full disclosure: I did not watch the second debates either.) And it might make sense to keep it there until Iowa. If you can fit them on one debate stage, hey! But if you winnow it down to five, those might be Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, and Pete. But I believe that would be too narrow. 10 until Iowa. Then five going into New Hampshire and South Carolina.

The thing to note though is that the rest are still in the race. Unless they themselves drop out, they only have lost their slot on the debate stage. They are still on the ballot.

Nothing prevents a network from holding a debate among just the top five, either.

Health care in America is a lot to wrap your head around. Just to articulate an understanding of the system as it exists today is a lot. To offer an alternative is much more. But the hardest part might be, how do you go from here to there? If you make people anxious, you are toast. You don't want people thinking, what we have is not working for everyone, and a better system would be good, but if I lose what I have when you start on the journey, I am not too excited. Where do I get my insulin?

America Is Ready For A Race Pendulum Swing: Kamala Devi Harris

In 2008 a lot of people were like, we did it, we washed our sins. This race thing is behind us now. Not so fast. Enter Donald Trump in 2016. The guy wears racism on his sleeves. The racists might think like they might think. But there are a lot of moderate whites who are like, you know what, we did not do in 2008 what we thought we did. Let's give this thing another shot.

Hillary lost in 2016 because the young people stayed home, and the white women voted for Trump for precisely racist reasons. But the soccer moms in the suburbs have had it with Donald. They try to teach manners to their kids, and then somebody turns on the TV, and the whole lesson goes down the kitchen sink. Trump is on TV.

Kamala Devi Harris is three in one. She is black. Black is the new black. She is a woman. About time. And she is Indian. This country of immigrants needs to acknowledge its most successful ethnic group. It's Indians. Right behind are the Jews like Kamala's husband. If Kamala wins, there will be Diwali all across India. The celebrations are going to be bigger in India than in America. Just you wait and watch.

Europe lays claim to the United States. Why can't India? It also is a continent.

Kamala Devi Harris is more muscular on race than Obama ever was. I really like her stance on gender, on equal pay. Fine the companies that don't pay equal. A woman could be doing the same job and getting paid less. In what universe? In the United States.

A US version of the National Health Service might sell well on the left, but you have to sell health care in America. If you have people fearing they might lose health care, you are toast. Kamala Harris understands that. She is a centrist by instinct. She is aware of what will sell.

Kamala Harris will take money from small donors as she should, as Elizabeth Warren does. But she is not exclusive about it. Harris has been smart not to let the big money folks think Biden is the only option. The big donors are not untouchables in Harrisland. That is a smart political move.

Harris is a natural politician. Her instincts are in the right place. She is a fighter who will throw Trump off balance. Harris will definitely win South Carolina. If she can win just one out of two in Iowa and New Hampshire, she will already be the nominee by the third contest. If she loses the first two and wins South Carolina, she might finally be able to stitch it together in her home state of California.

It is time a woman became president. It is time another black person became president. It is time an Indian became president. There are plenty of Indian immigrants in this country of immigrants.

Churchill was born in the US, and he made a big deal out of it in British politics. Kamala should take pride in her Indian mother, as she does. Donald Trump does talk about his "Scottish" mother, but then Donald is no Churchill.

Right now it is looking like a Kamala-Pete ticket. The generation change that was supposed to have happened with Obama did not actually happen. Donald Trump did not reverse only the progress on race. He also reversed the generation change. So 2020 will see the biggest jump in generation change among presidents. Every other earlier time it was a shift to one generation newer. This time it might be three. Something like that.

Kamala Harris has the Barack Obama confidence, and the Jim Carrey cheerfulness. Go figure.

Her slicing and dicing of Joe Biden in the last debate was pure action.

Women winning the World Cup was supposed to be a cause for celebration. Hey, learn from Brazil. Instead, it has been this slow-motion tragedy where you are like, wait, T-H-E-S-E women are having equal pay problems? The US men's soccer team is the biggest joke in all of sports history.

America Is Ready For A Race Pendulum Swing: Kamala Devi Harris https://t.co/FysYMJW4DF @KamalaHarris @PeteButtigieg @mPinoe @AOC @IlhanMN @RashidaTlaib @RepPressley

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 29, 2019

U.S. women's soccer star Megan Rapinoe said that she doesn't think any of her teammates are interested in visiting President Trump at the White House.https://t.co/oee3dtK7wd

— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) July 29, 2019

Shithole Country Is Now Baltimore

January 2018: Trump referred to Haiti and African nations as 'shithole' countries

Better to have a few rats than to be one
People who refuse to see or hear Trump's racism in attack on Baltimore are beyond reach, but here goes
Trump doubles down on attacks against Cummings and Baltimore district
Trump's Twitter attack on Cummings and Baltimore: undiluted racism and hate
Trump calls Baltimore ‘disgusting ... rodent infested mess,’ rips Rep. Elijah Cummings over border criticism

Kamala Harris Has To Win Without A Recession

This 10 year old economic expansion might go on for 10 more, or so says @KennethLFisher https://t.co/Bl1GnNwOAo

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 28, 2019

Barack Obama gets credit for eight of the 10 years. So it's not like Trump gets all of the credit. He does not get even 20% of the credit. Because who launched this spaceship?

But Dems can't count on a recession to see them through.

Recession? Really? This 10-year economic expansion won't just die of old age Australia finished its 27th year of uninterrupted growth in 2018. It’s still running strong. Britain grew from 1992–2008 – a 16-year-long streak.

Here's to Kamala Devi Harris. If there is no recession in 2020, Kamala Devi gets to remind voters of how wonderful Obama was.

Kamala Devi Harris Has To Win Without A Recession https://t.co/q1PYCp8UuN @KamalaHarris @KennethLFisher @AOC @IlhanMN @AyannaPressley @RashidaTlaib @TulsiGabbard @narendramodi @AndrewYang

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 28, 2019

“SHE’S DANGEROUS”: GOP INSIDERS FEAR KAMALA COULD BE THE NEXT OBAMA “She doesn’t come across as a nutjob,” worries one GOP operative. “Kamala is a nightmare,” says another. ...... With her surgical vivisection of Biden in the first debate, it seemed their fears had been realized. Now, as Democrats prepare for a second round of debates next week, these strategists are raising the alarm...... “She theoretically would do very well with African American turnout and end up being positioned as a Vienna Soccer Mom.” In case you’re wondering, that’s Vienna, Virginia, an upscale bedroom community just west of Washington, D.C., that has accelerated its drift from the Republican orbit since a certain former reality-television star secured the Republican nomination three years ago. Suburbs just like it in critical battlegrounds could hand the White House back to the Democratic Party in 2020....... She might have more natural political skill than any of her competitors for the Democratic nomination. She certainly checks more boxes—African American, woman, racially diverse, a legitimate strength in a party occasionally obsessed with identity politics....... Who else could they possibly nominate? ....... I think she has an appeal to the Scottsdale soccer mom who is a registered Republican. Between her appeal and Trump’s women problems, she has probably already won those voters ........ “Independents are just sick of everything, and her no-nonsense approach would have appeal broadly, and even to some white Independent and GOP men. She doesn’t have the Biden wimp factor, and that’s probably important in a place like Arizona.” ...... Harris, in her first pressure-packed presidential face-off, put on a clinic....... While most of my colleagues were in South Florida for the main event, I decided to hang out with a crowd of staunch Biden supporters at a debate watch party in suburban Des Moines that was organized by the Biden campaign. The Iowa caucuses will kick off the voting in the 2020 primary next February, and this group of likely voters knew they had just witnessed a massacre....

Imagine what Harris might be able to do against a real villain like Trump

.... ability to handle an asymmetrical pugilist like Trump

Dan Quayle: If Democrats 'put up some total left winger' Donald Trump will be re-elected

Camille Claudel: A Film Review

The woman and her career is a contemporary theme in politics. That topic is more clearly seen with the distance of time. Here is a gifted woman whose mother was deeply hostile to her talent, and took the one available escape route to do justice to her talent. And the dude who was outshined did not take kindly to her talent either. You see the loneliness of a genius. You also see that the one man two woman thing does not work. It causes deep and lasting pain.

It is not easy to be a gifted artist. It is much harder as a woman. She was more gifted than the guy, as well her poet brother.

It is a great work of art, duly recognized. But it is also deeply contemporary.

2020 is that year of reckoning.

But then you also see pragmatic stuff like, this artist could have used a good agent.

Camille Claudel Camille Claudel, in full Camille-Rosalie Claudel, (born December 8, 1864, Villeneuve-sur-Fère, France—died October 19, 1943, Montdevergues asylum, Montfavet, near Avignon), French sculptor of whose work little remains and who for many years was best known as the mistress and muse of Auguste Rodin. She was also the sister of Paul Claudel, whose journals and memoirs provide much of the scant information available on his sister’s life...... She became obsessed with Rodin’s injustice to her and began to feel persecuted by him and his “gang.” .... On March 10, 1913, she was committed involuntarily to an asylum at Ville-Évrard. In September 1914 she was transferred to the asylum of Montdevergues, where she remained until her death.

Donald Trump, Uninterrupted

Unfiltered video is a good thing. Everyone deserves to be heard. Everyone has a right to make their case. I don't think I have ever watched Donald Trump speak at this length. The credit goes to Imran.

I am actually for someone like Trump mediating between Modi and Imran. Like, why not? You will not even talk to each other at conferences where you meet.

Trump should mediate between Imran and Modi. Then Modi and Imran together should mediate between Iran and the United States. The idea of squeezing a people economically so they will maybe come out into the streets to throw a regime, I like the other alternative better. The alternative of maximal engagement. Maximal trade. 5G.

Iran and the United States should sit down for unconditional talks, possibly with Modi as mediator. Let the Ayatollah and Trump meet. Maybe Trump will work his charm on the Ayatollah also. North Korean Kim seems to enjoy the photoshoots.

I believe Donald Trump when he says US and Pakistan could be doing 10 times more in trade than what they are doing right now. That is the way to go. Peace is a good thing.

भारत पाकिस्तान वार्ता तीन तह पर करिए
भारतको चाहिए कि इमरान से वार्ता करें
Imran Khan Could Bring Peace
Narendra Modi And Imran Khan Should Solve Kashmir And Bag A Joint Nobel

https://t.co/fSquZnlRcE Donald Trump, Uninterrupted @realDonaldTrump @ImranKhanPTI @narendramodi

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 23, 2019

Donald The Bullshitter

According to Trump, India's Prime Minister Modi "actually said, 'Would you like to be a mediator or arbitrator?' I said 'Where?' He said, 'Kashmir.'"

India's official spokesman just issued statement saying: "No such request has been made by Prime Minister to the US President." pic.twitter.com/ivjhGwDHT2

— Manu RTrump isn’t lying, he’s bullshitting – and it’s far more dangerousaju (@mkraju) July 22, 2019

Trump isn’t lying, he’s bullshitting – and it’s far more dangerous Bullshitters, as philosopher Harry Frankfurt wrote in his 1986 essay “On Bullshit,” don’t care whether what they are saying is factually correct or not. Instead, bullshit is characterized by a “lack of connection to a concern with truth [and] indifference to how things really are.” Frankfurt explains that a bullshitter “does not care whether the things he says describe reality correctly. He just picks them out, or makes them up, to suit his purpose.” ...... bullshitters don’t really care whether their audience believes what they are saying ..... bullshitters say what they do in an effort to change how the audience sees them, “to convey a certain impression” of themselves..... In Trump’s case, much of his rhetoric and speech seems designed to inflate his own grand persona. ...... misinformation is notoriously hard to correct once it’s out there, and social media, in particular, has a reputation for spreading factually inaccurate statements and conspiracy theories....... examined five years of Facebook posts about conspiracy theories. The authors found that people tend to latch onto stories that fit their preexisting narratives about the world and share those stories with their social circle. The result is a “proliferation of biased narratives fomented by unsubstantiated rumors, mistrust, and paranoia.”..... because Trump’s communication style relies heavily on anger, people who are predisposed to his message may become even less critical of potential bunk.......... Journalists, scientists, experts and even government officials who disagree with him are subject to charges of ineptitude, partisanship or conspiracy. They’re then threatened with restrictions on funding, access and speech....... people can convince themselves of things that aren’t true. ...... There’s some evidence, for instance, that he avoided information that Muslims in New Jersey didn’t actually celebrate the terrorist attacks on September 11th, as he claimed.