Thursday, May 30, 2019

Trump And Xi Should Cut A Deal In Japan



The two should pull back a little and cut a deal. Escalating the trade war will bring bad news all around.

A trade deal where the tariffs simply stay in place is no trade deal at all.

On the other hand, China should give credible assurances on some much-needed reforms. These are reforms that it would want to carry out anyways. Some of the state-run companies in China are capital sinkholes. Reform would only add to China's competitiveness.

The US buying or not buying 5G equipment from Huawei is a decision any customer can make. But to go after Huawei's supply chain puts companies like Apple at grave risk. 5G will give Global South the infrastructure that will transform countries. The US better not mess that up.

A trade deal would be one where both countries agreed to pull back on all tariffs, take their hands off high-tech supply chains, and China commits to some major structural reforms to its economy, to be subjected to review every two years or so.

I am for talks in general. I supported the idea of Donald Trump meeting Kim of North Korea. I support the idea of Trump meeting the Iranian leader. On the idea of holding talks, I agree with Trump. Leaders should talk to each other in person instead of posturing and signaling through media.

If China offers to buy just a few more bags of soybeans, there will be no deal. If the US insists the tariffs must stay in place to ensure China delivers on its promises, there will be no deal.

Investors grow anxious over Trump-Xi G20 meeting US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have downplayed the chances of a breakthrough in talks ..... Bond yields have already plummeted, stock prices have fallen and the Vix index of market volatility has risen as hopes of a quick end to the dispute have been dashed. Investors are now using derivatives markets to position themselves for further turbulence at the two-day summit......The increased investor caution comes as 10-year US Treasury yields plunged to their lowest level in 20 months on Wednesday as fears over slowing global growth have intensified after trade talks between the US and China broke up in acrimony this month, leading to an escalation of tariffs....... That encounter is at most expected to result in a new truce, setting the stage for a further round of negotiations. Mr Trump this week said the US was “not ready” for a deal at this stage....... the increased trading activity around the meeting could come both from investors seeking protection from a sharp downturn in stock prices ..... The Vix index — sometimes called Wall Street’s fear gauge .... The Vix level implied by prices of options expiring between June 28 and the following Friday currently stands at 17.6, compared with just 14.4 for the week after and 14.7 earlier in the month
A Political Economist on How China Sees Trump’s Trade War Authoritarian regimes, because they’re not elected, can, in theory, impose a great deal of hardship on their population without suffering political repercussions. ....... Both leaders see themselves as uniquely capable of reviving greatness in their respective countries. For Trump it may be partly rhetoric and partly politics, but, I think for Xi Jinping, also partly politics—he needed to innovate a new ideology that was very different from his predecessors’ ideologies, so he picked national greatness. ....... clearly Xi Jinping would like China to continue on this trajectory of economic growth ..... of course, in the official media they’re beginning to try to portray this scenario where China is going to suffer economic hardship to fight this war with the U.S. I just don’t believe it. I think it’s propaganda. ........ China suffers from a deficit of true expertise about the U.S. ....... The problem faced by Xi is the same one that is faced by Trump, which is that they’re not economic experts. ...... If one is given great advantages in various commercial deals, it’s not difficult to get rich...... the concentration camps in Xinjiang really have inaugurated a new era for Chinese repression of its population. And, indeed, we have not seen such a large-scale mass internment since the Mao period, when Mao put millions of Chinese Communist Party members in labor camps and reëducation camps. This is targeted toward a particular ethnic group...... In Xinjiang, there were no active insurgencies; there were isolated terrorist incidents. I don’t know why the leadership approved such an unnecessary step..... there is some kind of information asymmetry. You have these interest groups within the government—high terrorism officials, officials in Xinjiang—who gain enormously from these very extreme measures, because it costs billions and billions of dollars to build up these camps. Somebody got these contracts.
Trump says he will meet China's Xi at G20 next month US president also says he'll meet Russia's Putin, but Kremlin says no such arrangements have been made so far...... "China hopes the US will get back to the right track of bilateral trade and economic consultations and meet with China halfway." ...... The prospect that the US and China were spiralling into a no-holds-barred dispute that could derail the global economy has rattled investors and led to a sharp selloff on equities markets in the past week.



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China In Latin America

China in Latin America: partner or predator? Whether they're new colonisers or a vital source of cash and technology, the jury is out on Beijing's investment in the region – but one thing is certain, the US will not relinquish its control without a fight ...... the difference between the long-standing American influence and the growing Chinese role is not so black and white. ...... The Middle Kingdom may be seen as a 21st century coloniser, but it has also presented alternative investment options. ........ The grievances and wounds created by hundreds of years of Spanish and Portuguese rule are today still present in the collective psyche, despite formal foreign control ending more than a century ago. ...... The US then quickly became the hegemonic power, but its strategic control has been hard to sustain over the past two decades, partly because of China, whose growing economy has driven up demand for commodities. ........ Trade between China and Latin America has surged, from US$12 billion in 2000 to almost US$306 billion last year, and China has become a major investor. The value of its loans – mostly for energy and infrastructure projects – has surpassed financing from the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank. ....... Panama and the Dominican Republic, have severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan ....... Ecuador, a country of more than 16 million which some say has been a laboratory for Sino-Latin American investment ........ Dams and hydroelectric power plants are being built by Chinese companies in the Amazon rainforest and Patagonia. Thousands of kilometres of rail track are being laid in Brazil, Peru and Venezuela. China and Argentina are negotiating over construction of a US$8 billion nuclear facility in the province of Buenos Aires. ....... “We have found most projects in Latin America have faced a local backlash because of environmental concerns about pollution and harm to residents and livelihoods,” Argentinian scholar Ariel Armony and Mexico-based researcher Enrique Dussel Peters wrote ....... questions whether the region’s role in Chinese empire building is “that different to being part of the ‘gringo’ empire” – referring to the US. ...... Chinese companies have made little effort to interact with their hosts. ...... “For Chinese companies, the community is not a valid interlocutor, only the government is. The difference is that gringo imperialism deals with civil society, the Chinese don’t … They don’t try to understand where they are,” Viola says. “And they consider that social peace is not their problem.” ....... these companies do not have high environmental standards and labour rights are not observed. “They follow a corrupt pattern … and the logic of ‘Chinese for Chinese’ prevails.” ...... “Wherever China invests, they make it very Chinese. They don’t consider the local culture. For example, they bring Chinese chefs to cook on their settlement. They separate or segregate the workers – like there’s a Chinese camp and local camp. I think China has a lot do in this regard.” ...... a lack of communication is a major issue. ..... “The investment fills a crucial gap in infrastructure needed for the region while establishing a new ally that will help further their economies and standing on the global stage” ....... “China is one of the few countries in the world that can do the whole package. They can finance you and build the project for you. Not many countries can do that. In that sense it’s good because they can reduce the costs, especially for emerging countries” ....... “If you go to the IMF [International Monetary Fund] or the World Bank, they have their conditions. They lend you a billion dollars and you still have to contract with their partners. China does the same, but there’s a huge difference,” Lee says. “They don’t have this conditionality problem – they don’t tell you: ‘Change your political economy to make it look more neoliberal or something that resembles the Washington consensus.’ In that sense, it’s a step forward, because there are no political conditions for those loans.” ........ US officials are largely powerless to prevent the shift to Chinese financing. .......... Although US officials are “sounding increasingly menacing vis-à-vis the Chinese ‘threat’ … there is little they can really do to halt China’s inexorable advance” ....... Ninety per cent positive and only 10 per cent negative – that is Cui’s verdict on China’s investments in Latin America. ....... “It is true some have made mistakes and they have their flaws … It will take some time for them to become aware of the need to protect the environment, follow local laws and interact with communities. But they are learning and their operations are improving ... It’s not fair to ignore the positive side of it.”...... China has treated Latin American countries as equal partners and “does not meddle in their internal politics or try to control the local economy”. ......... “It’s a better option in the Ecuadorean context over North American interference,” he says. “Yes, we are in debt, but there is technological development and it’s still cheaper than if we had to deal with international institutions.” ........ Many of the failures involved in Chinese projects are actually the responsibility of local authorities, he argues. “Building schools and community centres is the government’s responsibility ... The obligation of the companies is to pay their taxes, and the government should do the rest.” ...... “many non-governmental organisations here have a very negative view of Chinese investment. They see these investments as predatory. And that has a lot to do with a Eurocentric vision that is still very ingrained in Latin America,” he says. “Here, the ideal is still the Western world.” ....... But for people such as Taish Mercedes, 65, part of the Shuar minority, who are indigenous to Ecuador and Peru, there is little difference between Chinese, American or any other foreign source of investment....... Her home was bulldozed by the local government to make way for a Chinese-backed mining project in the Ecuadorean region of the Amazon basin......... “Our motherland can provide us with everything. That is our way of life. But the colonisers came and taught people how to live with money. Many became greedy,” she says, describing the impact of the Spanish......... “Now the Chinese are the new colonisers – just like the ones before. They are ruining the harmony of our land.”



How Chinese projects are tearing communities in Ecuador apart Investments from Beijing have brought infrastructure and jobs – but they have also seen communities forced off their land as well as the murder of a strident critic. To some Ecuadoreans, the social and environmental impact is too high a cost ...... The biodiversity that makes it stand out, some fear, may soon be gone thanks to the country’s largest mine. ....... Out of 15 countries in Latin America that have received Chinese funding, Ecuador is among the top three borrowers, with a total of 15 loans estimated at US$18.4 billion........ The mine covers some 10,000 hectares, and the Ministry of Mining calculates it will produce 3.18 million tonnes of copper, 843.21 tonnes of silver and 105.44 tonnes of gold. ...... The region’s mountains are being carved up, there is ongoing deforestation and rivers are being discoloured by run-off from the mine. .......... “As you can see, I am here alone after they destroyed the community,” he says, referring to San Marcos, whose residents had their land seized by the government. “I rarely have visitors. I spend eight or 15 days without seeing people. Living alone is bad.” ...... What we asked was to be relocated to similar areas. But instead [EcuaCorriente] went there, offered some money [to the people in the area as compensation for their land] and that was it ...... “Many of us don’t care about money,” Uyuguari insists. “What we care about is to have a dignified house and land to work on. They don’t understand this and, unfortunately, the judiciary here in Ecuador is all in favour of the big companies. The policies don’t take into consideration campesinos like myself.” ....... The contract between the Ecuadorean government and Chinese firm EcuaCorriente was signed in 2012, and the construction of the mine began three years later. Many remember the optimism that followed. There were promises of new roads, schools and hospitals. ............ Tundayme residents also say there is a stark cultural gap between locals and Chinese workers that is hard to overcome, and interactions between the two are limited due to the language barrier. ....... “When the Canadians were here it wasn’t good, but there was some equality,” said a 30-year-old former worker at the mine. “They spoke more Spanish and they ate our local food.” ........... “I am not against the mine,” the worker says, noting its importance for the region. “But many things have not been done properly. We Ecuadoreans are barely benefiting from this project.” ....... the mine may not be the best solution for the region, Quinatoa says “given our local economy, it’s the best at the moment”....... The environmental group Amazon Watch estimates that total deforestation in the region affected by the mine from 2010 to the end of 2017 was 1,307 hectares. ...... “The construction method of the dams that [EcuaCorriente] is building at the Mirador mine is so risky that its construction is illegal in Chile and, a few weeks ago, was declared illegal in Brazil,” Prieto says. The case is now being dealt with by Ecuador’s Constitutional Court............ “The fact that José Tendetza was killed, that this case remains unpunished and that his family was silenced and isolated is profoundly racist, classist and violent.”



The Ecuadorean resistance From farmers who say the water in their land has been drained to indigenous groups on the verge of disappearing, the effects of Chinese-run projects are rippling across the country – and Ecuadoreans are making their displeasure felt ........ Observers say many of these investments got off the ground after faulty or non-existent consultations. Once they are set up, they are protected by opacity – with reports such as environmental studies often kept hidden from the public – and high security measures. ........ In August 2016, hundreds of police officers and soldiers entered the parish of Santiago de Panantza, in the province of Morona Santiago, and evicted a small Shuar community of eight families – about 32 people – known as Nankints to make way for the mine. ...... public security forces have been called to protect international investments during protests; laws and regulations have been bent to suit new economic policies; and foreign investments are often prioritised over traditional livelihoods and the environment. ....... In 2018, the country produced about 517,000 barrels a day of crude oil – its top export. ..... According to the environmental group Amazon Watch, the park contains more endemic tree species in one hectare than all of the United States and Canada combined. It is also home to the Waorani indigenous people, and two nomadic Waorani clans – the Tagaeri and Taromenane – who live there in voluntary isolation. ........ Up north, in the Amazon basin, the giant dam known as Coca Codo Sinclair – financed and erected by the state-owned Chinese Sinohydro Corporation – had a grand opening in 2016, attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping and then Ecuadorean president Rafael Correa. ...... communities living near the project “were left weakened”: “What is happening in these places is that people feel they have little say over their own territory.” ..... The US$90 million project was expected to bring in more than US$300 million for the Ecuadorean government over that period, and create hundreds of jobs....... “We used to support the mine. I think most of us only became aware of its impacts in 2017,” she says. “We realised that the water was drying up.” ...... Violent confrontations have occurred between authorities and locals – and even between communities who have differing opinions on the project. ...... Those against the mine welcomed a landmark decision last June, when a court ordered Ecuagoldmining to halt work because indigenous communities in the area had not been consulted......... A Chinese environmental lawyer, Jingjing Zhang, contributed to that victory. She testified to the court in Cuenca that China had ratified the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples in 2007, which meant it supports prior consultation and consent...... She also noted that Chinese enterprises abroad are bound by the laws and environmental regulations of the host country ....... She recalls the violence from last year, when there were clashes between residents from different villages, and between locals and authorities. “We are in danger and we don’t know what will happen. Virgin Mary help us! So much cruelty,” Urtado says.

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In The News (4)

Why is Kamala Harris running for president? Joe Biden is offering a return to normalcy. Elizabeth Warren aims to bring big corporations to heel and prop up the working class. Bernie Sanders wants a political revolution. ...... She’s pitching herself as the kitchen-table realist of the field ..... Harris’ plans include big raises for public school teachers, a proposal to pay women equally to men and a tax plan that calls for a $500 monthly credit for families earning less than $100,000 a year. ..... Harris is calling for direct payments to families to ease their paycheck-to-paycheck burdens........ Nearly half of American families are one unexpected $400 expense away from financial distress, she often says, and in 99 percent of the counties in America, a minimum-wage worker can’t afford market rate price of a one-bedroom apartment. ....... But if she makes it far enough, Trump is certain to yoke Harris to "Medicare for All" and the "Green New Deal," no matter how she talks about them...... Trump, who is trying to paint all Democrats as radicals and socialists. ..... Harris’ plans call for spending $315 billion over 10 years to boost teacher salaries, which amounts to a raise of $13,500 for the average teacher, a 23 percent increase in base pay. ...... Another plan would mandate that companies prove they aren’t discriminating against women and would fine corporations that don’t close their pay gaps between women and men. ..... She also has promised to take unilateral action on sweeping gun control measures that have stalled in Congress. ....... Harris said she also plans to release criminal justice reform and immigration proposals.



As trade war heats up, China threatens clampdown on "rare earths" Rare earths are a group of 17 elements used in everything from mobile phone cameras and automobile catalytic converters to wind turbines and MRI machines....... China dominates the global supply of rare earths and accounted for almost 80% of exports to the U.S. last year. ...... rare earths are ubiquitous in modern life, and their use is likely to spread as technology advances. ...... One rare earth element, lanthanum, makes up as much as 50 percent of digital camera lenses, including cell phone cameras. ....... One reason China is the global leader -- it's been pulling rare earths out of the ground for a long time. The country spent a century perfecting the refining method for extracting and refining rare earths in large enough quantities to keep costs manageable. ....... JJ Kinahan, chief marketing strategist at TD Ameritrade, said China's threat to use rare earths as a weapon against the U.S. is worrisome. "What it shows to me is that there is a little bit of a worsening relationship here," he said. "They went pretty deep in the bag to throw out something that would hurt." ...... China's goal is to paint the U.S. as a "lawless actor" that disrupts economic growth ...... China blocked some rare-earth exports to Japan after a maritime dispute in 2010. That led some countries to search for alternatives -- and a protest by Japan with the WTO, which ruled in 2014 that the restrictions on rare-earth exports were illegal.

‘Don’t say we didn’t warn you’: A phrase from China signals the trade war could get even worse The phrase “Don’t say we didn’t warn you” has been used by the People’s Daily in 1962 before China’s border war with India and ahead of the 1979 China-Vietnam War. ...... China threatened it would cut off rare earth minerals as a countermeasure in the escalated trade battle. The materials are crucial to the production of iPhones, electric vehicles and advanced precision weapons ...... The S&P 500 has lost nearly 6% this month.

Survivors Of Sexual Abuse By Nuns Want Greater Visibility For Their Claims Now in her late 60s, Cahill has struggled with PTSD and addiction to drugs and alcohol for decades, both fueled by having been sexually exploited as a minor......."To say, 'I was sexually abused by a nun' without immediately the cloud of, 'You're a sinner, this was a lesbian relationship, you tempted her...I'm not living in shame any longer," she said.

Escalating Iran crisis looks a lot like the path US took to Iraq war half of all Americans believe the U.S. will go to war with Iran "within the next few years" ..... Is Iran doomed to be an Iraq redux? This is just one of the questions raised by a crisis that has eerie parallels to the missteps that led to the Iraq War in 2003, where the buildup to conflict was precipitated by faulty intelligence and confrontational foreign policymakers such as John Bolton in President George W. Bush's administration. ....... In an opinion article in The Guardian in 2013, Bolton wrote: "Overthrowing Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003 achieved important American strategic objectives. Our broad international coalition accomplished its military mission with low casualties and great speed, sending an unmistakable signal of power and determination throughout the Middle East and around the world. Despite all the criticism of what happened after Saddam's defeat, these facts are indisputable." ...... Meanwhile, with the failed outcome of the 2003 Iraq War still plain to see, Bolton started ramping up his outspoken criticism of Iran's Islamic Republic. In 2009, as President Barack Obama's administration entered into what would turn out to be almost five years of negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, Bolton said: "Ultimately, the only thing that will stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons is regime change in Tehran." As the deal entered its final stages, Bolton advocated in a New York Times opinion piece that the U.S. join forces with Israel: "Time is terribly short, but a strike can still succeed. Such action should be combined with vigorous American support for Iran's opposition, aimed at regime change in Tehran," he wrote. The articled was headlined: "To Stop Iran's Bomb, Bomb Iran."....... Bolton calls Iran "the central banker of international terrorism" and accuses Tehran of pursuing nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them and of "tyrannizing its own people and terrorizing the world." The video ends with a direct threat to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader: "I don’t think you’ll have many more anniversaries to enjoy," Bolton says. ..... Speaking in Abu Dhabi, Bolton said Wednesday that there had been a previously unknown attempt to attack the Saudi oil port of Yanbu as well. "Who else would you think is doing it? Somebody from Nepal?" .......... As for Trump's position on Iran, nobody seems to know the president's mind, not even, perhaps, the president.

Space internet maybe end of year, says SpaceX This new batch of satellite-driven internet systems, if they work and are eventually switched on, could provide broadband to most places, including previously internet-barren locations, such as rural areas. That would be good for high-bandwidth, low-latency remote-internet of things (IoT) and increasingly important edge-server connections for verticals like oil and gas and maritime. Data could even end up getting stored in compliance-friendly outer space, too. Leaky ground-based connections, also, perhaps a thing of the past........ Laser technical progress, where data is sent in open, free space, rather than via a restrictive, land-based cable or via traditional radio paths, is partly behind this space-internet rush. “Bits travel faster in free space than in glass-fiber cable,” LeoSat explained last year. Additionally, improving microprocessor tech is also part of the mix...... Global penetration of the “populated world” could be obtained after 24 launches, it thinks.



Why astronomers are worried that SpaceX’s satellite network will pollute the night sky The satellites, strung out like a line of glowing army ants, shone brightly as they moved along their orbit around Earth, clearly visible to the naked eye. Now, many in the astronomy community are concerned that this mega constellation might be too bright, and the sheer number of satellites that SpaceX wants to launch could muck up their telescope observations of the Universe. ...... Satellites can be seen for a few hours around dusk and dawn when they catch the light from the Sun as the sky dims, but they won’t reflect light for many hours of the night whenever they are in the shadow of the Earth. However, in higher latitudes during the summer, satellites can be seen throughout the evening. ...... at a latitude of 52 degrees north (about where London is located), there will be 84 Starlink satellites above the horizon at all times. ...... “So what something like Starlink will do, it’ll shut off some of those frequencies from the possibility of study.” Lonsdale also argues that there is a possibility that there will be some level of transmission that spills outside the intended frequency bands....... it’s unusual to have not consulted on this kind of impact.”

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Mueller Drops A Bomb



I think this leaves no room for Congress to not take this matter up. Mueller basically said, I have done all the homework, but it is beyond my jurisdiction to take the next step. Impeachment proceedings will begin. Will the Senate follow through on what the House might do? It depends on how the House conducts its business. If the House makes a clear case not just to Congress, but to the people at large, and sways public opinion, the Senate might follow the lead. If more than 60% of the American public ask for impeachment, it might happen.

If the House impeaches, but the Senate, on partisan lines, does not follow, what happens politically? Does that weaken or strengthen the president? I think that depends on how strong the public support for impeachment is. If it is in the above 60% range, and the Senate still does not follow through, the Republicans might lose the Senate in 2020.

Trump counts on his base to stay with him. How big is that base? And how firm? If during the impeachment noise it is still a 49.9-50.1 nation, then the whole thing might even strengthen Trump. That would defy logic. Mueller has made it absolutely clear that Russia did interfere. It was concerted, it was relentless, state actors were involved.

As for collusion, Trump said very publicly in 2016: "Russia, are you listening!" If he had said the same thing to the Russian ambassador in a private meeting, that would have been collusion, but if he says it publicly for all world to hear then that is not collusion? Does not make sense.

There is a whole another debate about the US track record of having interfered in other countries' elections over the decades. There have been cases of sabotaging elected governments who were deemed to be against US national interests. But that is a separate topic.

Or Trump could resign. That is a distinct possibility. The good thing about resigning would be Pence would pardon him.

This constitutional crisis is much bigger than anything going on with China, or Iran.

Mueller said, it's not on me, it's not on Congress. Nancy Pelosi is saying, it is not on Congress, it is on the American people.

Trump responds to Mueller, calls him 'a true never Trumper' "The whole thing is a scam. It's a giant presidential harassment," Trump said. "Russia did not help me get elected. You know who got me elected? I got me elected. Russia didn’t help me at all,” Trump said, adding that, if anything, Russia helped “the other side” get elected.

Trump attacks Mueller as a 'true never-Trumper' after admitting for first time that Russia helped elect him Responding to Trump's earlier tweet, George Conway, a conservative attorney, frequent Trump critic and husband of top White House adviser Kellyanne Conway, made note of Trump "finally" admitting that Russia sought to boost his candidacy........ "Well, that’s what the investigation was about," Conway wrote. "The investigation found plenty of evidence that Russia did just that. It thus wasn’t a 'Witch Hunt' or 'Hoax.' So why did you repeatedly try to obstruct it?" ....... the special counsel detailed Russia's extensive efforts to boost Trump's candidacy and harm 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton through social media campaigns and by targeted email hacking and releases....... Trump also said he believed the special counsel was "certainly conflicted" because of a "business dispute" the president claimed he had with Mueller.



Trump blasts Mueller as 'highly conflicted,' calls impeachment a 'dirty, filthy, disgusting word' The president, in his tweet, also seemed to acknowledge that Russia helped him "get elected" through their interference in the 2016 election, though said he "had nothing to do" with it. Mueller said Wednesday "there were multiple, systematic efforts to interfere in our election," but said there was "insufficient evidence to charge a broader conspiracy" involving the Trump campaign....... Later Thursday morning, Trump, departing the White House, repeated his criticism that the special counsel was "totally conflicted," and claimed that Mueller, who served as FBI director under the Bush and Obama administrations, wanted to be tapped to lead the bureau again during the Trump administration........ "He wanted to be FBI director," Trump said. "Mueller should have never been chosen--he wanted the FBI job and didn't get it and then was picked as special counsel."...... Mueller stated that: “The Constitution requires a process other than the criminal justice system to formally accuse the president of wrongdoing.”...... But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., under pressure from her party, still seems cool to the idea...... “We want to do what’s right and what gets results,” Pelosi said Wednesday. “We’re legislating, we’re investigating and we’re litigating.” ...... But House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., whose committee would lead any potential impeachment proceedings, said: “all options are on the table.”

'Start Here': Mueller finally speaks as calls to impeach Trump get louder





Mueller Counted on Institutions to Grapple With His Report. They Didn’t. Neither Congress nor the press did enough to tell the American people what they needed to know. ........ the statements definitively showed Attorney General William Barr’s previous comments on the matter to have been misleading. ........ The fact that this material is being treated as new when it has been available for weeks is indicative of a vast failure on the part of American institutions, which have not adequately grappled with the information conveyed in the Mueller report or presented it to the public with sufficient clarity. ........ Mueller described a “concerted attack on our political system” by the Russian government and emphasized the existence of “multiple, systematic efforts to interfere in our election.” He reiterated that his office had not exonerated the president. He also said that “it is important that the office’s written work”—that is, the Mueller report—“speak for itself.” ....... Some publications reported uncritically on the president’s claims of “Complete and Total EXONERATION,” though Barr’s letter stated that Mueller had not exonerated Trump. The New York Times and The Washington Post both said a “cloud” had been lifted from over the White House. ...... Mueller’s tone was that of a teacher telling his students once again that they would know the answer if only they had done the reading....... If the attorney general had chosen to release Mueller’s summaries instead of choosing to protect the president by writing his own, perhaps Mueller’s message might have been easier for the public to understand and for the press to report. ...... And then there is Congress—perhaps the main target of Mueller’s entreaty to please just read the report. ....... Two notable exceptions here are Democratic Senator (and presidential candidate) Elizabeth Warren and Republican Representative Justin Amash—both of whom have made a point of reading the entire report and publicly discussing their conclusions. Both support impeachment.



The Wisest Remedy Is Not Impeachment Over to you, Nancy Pelosi. ..... Impeachment at this point is all but certain to end in Trump’s acquittal in the Senate, which is controlled by a Republican majority. ...... It will change only if new real-world facts materialize—either legal facts (evidence of other crimes) or political facts (a collapse in Trump’s support in the country)...... A Trump facing impeachment will rally reluctant Republicans to him, with the argument, so effective for Bill Clinton in the 1990s, Even if he did something wrong, it does not merit removal from office...... And an acquitted Trump will be an immunized Trump....... Impeachment now threatens to turn the 2020 election into a referendum on the Democrats’ methods in Congress, not Trump’s wrongdoing in the presidency, in the campaign, and in private life....... Trump outrages the sense of justice. It is understandable that many yearn for urgent and decisive action to cleanse the American system. But wise action is better than urgent action, and the best decision is one that leads to success.

Mueller Hands His Caseload To Congress, As Impeachment Calls Grow Louder
More Democrats call for impeachment after Mueller makes statement

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Wednesday, May 29, 2019

In The News (3)

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In The News (2)

Huawei asks US courts for summary judgment on its move to get federal ban on its gear overturned
Why satellite mega-constellations are a threat to the future of space
As with Huawei, China thinks it can split the US and EU. It’s wrong
For both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, the trade war is a test of political will and ideology
Pentagon said to be eyeing 5G solutions with Huawei rivals Ericsson and Nokia
Why low profile Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei has grabbed the microphone to defend telecoms giant
US braces for future 5G world largely built with mobile network gear from China’s Huawei
Jacinda Ardern makes progress in China, but does Huawei have cause for optimism?
If friends of Huawei want to hit the US where it hurts, they should tackle the legitimacy of US sanctions Beijing’s supporters won’t have a strong case against Washington if they focus on legal rights of individuals. They need to ask different questions, like: what gives the US the right to ban foreign companies from doing business with Iran? ...... the judicial systems of the US and Canada are far from perfect. I’d need a separate column to begin to show how these systems have let down minorities in both countries....... The economic transformation China has achieved gives Beijing the right to raise its voice on the international stage and question the American order. Why does it hesitate?
China’s middle class growing desperate and anxious about US trade war impact Rising food prices and unemployment levels adding to concerns despite state and social media urging nation to stand strong in face of adversity ...... China’s middle class, particularly better-educated white collar workers, are growing increasingly confused and anxious over how the trade war with the United States will affect the lives of ordinary citizens, in contrast to official press and social media which have been dominated by messages urging the country to stand strong in face of the adversity....... pushing citizens to scramble for any information about the trade war away from the official propaganda rhetoric...... the adverse effects of the trade war have started to be felt and are rapidly becoming known throughout Chinese society. ....... “In just two weeks, the mentality of my friends around me has changed. We used to think [a trade war] to be absolutely impossible. Now I start to fear there will be a devaluation of the [yuan] in the near future, and even a more horrible situation ahead if the two sides engage in a full-scale war, not only in trade and technology, but also in finance and the currency market...... Food prices jumped 6.1 per cent in April due to higher pork and fruit prices, with pork price increases accelerating to 14.4 per cent from 5.1 per cent in March ...... “The yuan is sliding towards 7 to the US dollar, a 500-gram package of grapes has soared to 30 yuan (US$4.3) ....... As a technologist, I have a full understanding that if Sino-US relations continue to deteriorate, or if China loses more orders from Western countries, many of the industrial supply chains developed in the past will soon be scrapped,” said Li Yue........“The business is not profitable yet. I just pray that the trade war will end as soon as possible,” Mai said. “But on the other hand, I think it will be far from a happy ending.”
Donald Trump warns China tariffs could rise ‘very substantially’ as US isn’t ready for deal to end trade war Analysts say a consensus will be difficult to reach on key issues such as Chinese state subsidies, intellectual property theft and an enforcement mechanism before a possible meeting between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka next month....... the White House said it would delay for six months plans for tariffs on Japanese and European Union car makers to allow more time for negotiation. ........ Huawei’s chief executive Ren Zhengfei told Bloomberg on Monday that he would protest against possible Chinese government retaliation against the US for targeting his firm and rejected Trump’s suggestion a trade deal between China and the US could involve Huawei......... “I see his tweets and I think it’s laughable because they’re self-contradictory,” he said.
China’s industrial profits post biggest drop in nearly three and a half years
The US-China technology war aside, SMIC has a practical reason for delisting from New York: its ADRs are hardly traded
Huawei chief Ren Zhengfei dismisses Donald Trump’s suggestion tech giant could play role in China trade deal Company’s founder tells interviewer that ‘even if the US wants to buy our products I may not sell to them’ ...... Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei has dismissed Donald Trump’s suggestion that the company be included in a trade deal between the United States and China....... In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Ren said the idea was a “big joke”, adding that the Chinese telecoms giant had nothing to do with the US-China trade war. ...... “I will ignore Trump. Then with whom can he negotiate? ....... I see his tweets and think it’s laughable because they’re self-contradictory,” he told the network. “How did he become a master of the art of the deal?” ....... both sides have dramatically escalated the dispute, by imposing punitive extra tariffs on each other’s exports, accusing each other of frequently changing positions and with no sign of renewing the talks. ....... what will be certainly the largest trade deal ever made ...... the US president had the “ultimate discretion” to decide on whether to pursue or drop a federal case
The US and China take their rivalry into more dangerous waters after collapse of trade talks Since the breakdown of the latest round of trade negotiations, the Trump administration has signalled that all-out containment, rather than competition, now guides its dealings with China ...... hardliners on both sides have now gained the upper hand over those seeking to find an agreed way forward. ....... Historians will debate whether China reneged on understandings reached between the negotiators, or US President Donald Trump decided it was politically more in his interest to campaign for his re-election by railing against China rather than defending a compromise agreement his opponents would pick apart. ...... Advocates of delinking who believe China must be actively prevented from catching up with US advanced technology won the day, rather than trusting that US competitiveness would eventually outpace China’s. Containment beat out competition........ Some US officials who are not in the hardliner camp continue to hold out hope that Trump and President Xi Jinping might reach agreement before the upcoming G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, at the end of June. ........ But barring another radical turnabout by Trump himself – not impossible – there does not appear to be enough time to work through the remaining disagreements........ US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has a full agenda dealing with other festering trade agreements and disputes........ But Beijing has also taken subsidies, state-owned enterprises, tech transfer and enforcement off the table, making talks probably pointless. ....... The unrelated but concurrent examples of Iran and Venezuela do not give me confidence in the Trump team’s capacity........ The end of the trade talks seems likely to be the beginning of something much worse.



How To Achieve An Avoidance-Impervious, $14TR+/yr. Global Wealth Tax
A devastating analysis of the tax cut shows it’s done virtually no economic good The nonpartisan Congressional Research Service ...... finds that the cuts have had virtually no effect on wages, haven’t contributed to a surge in investment, and haven’t come close to paying for themselves. Nor have they delivered a cut to the average taxpayer. ........ The tax cuts did almost nothing for ordinary Americans and may even have cost them money. The apparent gains in their income were negligible and short-lived. Wealthy Americans reaped the benefits of lower taxes and higher dividends. The cuts had a negligible effect on U.S. economic growth while depriving the government of revenue. .......Put it all together and this massive restructuring of the U.S. tax system should prompt average Americans to ask Republicans in Congress and the White House that age-old question: Who are you really working for?

India plants 66 million trees in 12 hours as part of record-breaking environmental campaign
Modi Has United India Like No Prime Minister in Decades The last time an Indian Prime Minister was re-elected with a parliamentary majority was in 1971. His coalition won just under 50% of the national vote. ....... Modi has managed to transcend India’s greatest fault line: the class divide...... Narendra Modi was born into one of India’s most disadvantaged social groups. In reaching the very top, he personifies the aspirational working classes and can self-identify with his country’s poorest citizens ........ His second consecutive term is a victory for meritocracy, and for opportunity, thanks to a slate of welfare policies for the country’s extreme poor. Through socially progressive policies, he has brought many Indians, both Hindus and religious minorities, out of poverty at a faster rate than in any previous generation........ Modi pledged to improve the country’s sanitation and he has more than delivered; from fewer than 40% of households having access to a toilet, almost 95% do now. Close to all Indian villages now have access to electricity, when less than 40% did when he took office...... Intuitively he has understood, like no other predecessor, how the much-admired tech skills of Indians can be used to transform society. ....... The tax base in India has almost doubled, and with it, the amount of tax collected — but with a lower tax burden on individual citizens. ....... an unprecedented 200 million plus new bank accounts opened........ Digitization has empowered the poor, eliminating corrupt middle-men and allowing direct deposits of state benefits, social security and pension payments into the hands of the poor. Modi has also succeeded in bringing the whole of India into one tax union, through the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax, and thereby making India at last a truly single market........ His reforms have helped bring inflation under control, from a record high of more than 12% at the tail end of Manmohan Singh’s government, to below 3% in April 2019; and has reduced the deficit down to 3.42%, when a decade ago it was staggering 6.46%....... he must deliver on his promise to create the world’s largest start-up eco-system ......

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In The News (1)



China or the US? Europe’s ‘impossible choice’ in the trade war Chinese Vice-President Wang Qishan, a close ally of President Xi Jinping who formerly led trade talks with the US, is visiting Germany and the Netherlands this week, just days after another top Xi aide, Li Zhanshu, the Communist Party’s third-most powerful cadre, wrapped up a trip to Hungary, Austria and Norway........ Wang’s trip will coincide with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s arrival in Berlin for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday. The US State Department said Pompeo would also visit the Netherlands, Switzerland and Britain........ In a landmark shift in its policy on China, the European Commission – the executive arm of the EU – for the first time labelled it an “economic competitor” and “a systemic rival” in a policy paper in March...... ...with the return of trade war tensions, Europe – already caught in the middle of the unfolding US-China rivalry – will become an important battlefield for the two giant nations’ geostrategic political machinations. .....

Huawei asks US courts for summary judgment on its move to get federal ban on its gear overturned


Under Modi 2.0, Will India Embrace Tough Economic Reforms? Unemployment is at a 45-year high; acute agrarian distress has caused farmer suicides; the banking system is weak and undercapitalized with poor credit disbursements; and the economy continues to suffer painful effects of the November 2016 demonetization of high-value currencies and the introduction of a unified indirect tax regime in mid-2017. ..... The BJP won 303 seats, 21 more than it did in 2014; the NDA added 17 seats between the two elections........ The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance won just 90 seats, though these were 30 more than in 2014...... The unemployment rate reached a 45-year high of 6.1% in 2017-2018...... the record voter turnout of 67%. ...... 32% of BJP voters would not have voted for the NDA if Modi had not been the prime ministerial candidate ....... “This idea that Modi is a decisive leader, who is incorruptible, who operates with clean intent and with national interest at heart, is something many voters latched onto” ....... Muslims account for about 14% of India’s population. In a speech after the elections, Modi stressed that minorities in India should not have to live any longer in fear......... “The business community is thrilled [at BJP’s win] because above all, it values stability and certainty.”...... “the BJP took in more than 73% of the donations declared by India’s seven largest political parties in 2017-18. The ruling party spent more than 260 million rupees on advertisements on Facebook, YouTube, Google and Instagram compared with 35 million rupees by the Congress.” ....... and that he will renew some of those reform efforts such as in the land markets and labor markets........ measures “to improve the status of agriculture” and address agrarian distress.........labor reforms; divestment and privatization of state-owned enterprises; and unwinding protectionist policies that restrict foreign direct investment........ inflexible labor laws [that] have choked the growth of manufacturing labor in India for more than 40 years now........ divestment and privatization of some two dozen public sector undertakings (PSUs) that already has cabinet approval. ........ “Sectoral ministries such as the ministry of fertilizers, mines, heavy industries, IT, textiles and steel are targets for regulatory capture by well-organized industry interests” ....... in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index....... India’s now ranks 77th among 190 countries compared with 134th in 2014......... American companies that have invested heavily in China over the last 30 years are now looking for other places to put their investments and to put their supply chains,” he says. “India could benefit enormously from that new situation. But it’s going to need to move very aggressively to make that possible.”........ “A lot of economic policy is implemented at the state level in India ........ high debt loads have saddled many banks, especially public sector banks, with nonperforming assets large enough to prevent substantial new lending. ....... “It should be in the 8% or 9% or even 10% bracket.” .......... Not surprisingly, the government’s interim budget unveiled weeks before the election included a Rs. 75,000 crore ($10.6 billion) package of cash handouts to small farmers, where each would get Rs. 6,000 ($88) a year.



Why the Fed Has a Hidden Influence on Foreign Affairs the Fed quietly exercises enormous influence on U.S. international financial policy. One eye-popping example: During the financial crisis the Fed had swapped currencies with various countries worth $583 billion....... the Fed was able to essentially influence foreign affairs without oversight by Congress or the executive branch....... a relatively young central bank — it was founded in 1913 — that this interest in foreign affairs and foreign policy was right there at the founding. ....... One of the reasons to create an American central bank was to take on the Bank of England, which had its own global currency of last resort. It was something that American policymakers very much were interested in maybe displacing. ......... the Fed is an institution that’s really neither accountable to Congress nor the president — it’s self-funded. It was created by Congress, but it acts on its own. The president is not supposed to intervene. ......... It never gets reviewed in court. ......the Fed went out there and spent hundreds of billions of its own dollars on these swap lines, and it did it of its own accord. So that’s why we think it increasingly looks like the Fed has its own foreign policy priorities that may be different from those of Congress and the president. ........ at one point the Fed had swapped currencies worth $583 billion. ... the entire Foreign Development Assistance budget for USAID is only $22 billion........The Fed is a really cosmopolitan entity. It views the global financial system and economy as extremely interlinked. ....... We want the Fed to make decisions for technocratic, smart reasons. We think that that’s most likely to keep inflation under control, which is one thing that a central bank wants to do........ “Sunlight is the best disinfectant.” Disclosure is a good way to regulate — especially when it comes to things like capital markets......... the advantages of sunlight, disclosure, and communication. ...... We are looking for a Goldilocks solution — something that gets the Fed more public about what it wants to do with its foreign affairs policy, but not something that takes away its independence, which we value, along with everyone else......... gives you disclosure without taking away flexibility, and without giving the president or Congress too much control over the foreign affairs of the financial regulators.

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A Sanders-Warren Ticket



Two Out Of Three: Kamala, Andrew, Pete
2020: The Year Of The Social Democrat
Andrew Yang: Universal Basic Income, Elizabeth Warren: Wealth Tax
Biden's Lead Is Name Recognition




I am looking at these numbers and I am thinking, this is looking like a Sanders-Warren ticket. That would be a good ticket. Only a political earthquake of that magnitude could give America something like Medicare For All. And these two would also be winning candidates. They would not take punches lying down from the big bully.

I think it is important for the impressive Democratic roster to run a clean campaign. Do not engage in personal attacks. Run on the strength of your ideas. All the good ideas have to be hammered into the Democratic platform. Win or lose, Andrew Yang's idea of a Universal Basic Income has to make it through. Win or lose, Kamala Harris' idea of fining companies for paying women less for the same work has to make it through.

President: Bernie Sanders
Vice President: Elizabeth Warren
Secretary Of State: Kamala Harris
Secretary Of Labor: Andrew Yang
Secretary Of Urban Affairs: Pete Buttigieg
UN Ambassador: Tulsi Gabbard
Texas Governor: Beto O'Rourke
Chancellor Of The Obama Library: Joe Biden





DNC makes it more difficult to qualify for 3rd debate Unlike the first and second rounds of debates, when candidates must cross either a donor or polling threshold to qualify, candidates will need to surpass both bars to make the stage for the third and fourth debates. For the September event, candidates will have to hit 2 percent in four qualifying polls, versus 1 percent in three polls for the first debates, and they will need 130,000 individual donors, up from 65,000.
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Donald Trump Is Messing Up A Good Thing



Donald Trump is America's Boris Johnson. The two admire each other greatly. Trump is rooting for Boris to become Prime Minister of Britain. This is hubris melting into recklessness.

If America had three dollars in 2001, it made one of those three dollars in the 1990s. Something like the Internet can give you a marked rise in productivity. But the technology on its own is agnostic. It does not innoculate you against harmful inequality. That the people get to do through the democratic process.

If America has five dollars today, it stands to have another 10 dollars by something like 2035. The new technologies are about to bring forth massive gains in productivity. But left to its own devices you could end up with a society like portrayed in The Hunger Games. There is a tiny rich elite. And the masses can barely get by.


Inequality has to be thought of in the same breath as climate change. It will take civilization to a cliff.

Trump's attitude towards it is (1) denial, (2) deliberate misdiagnosis (The Mexicans! The Chinese!), and (3) Pied Piper leadership (read my tweets!).

Projections that put China at number one in 2050 and India at number two also put the US at number three. For the tiny population that the US is in comparison, that is not a bad slot to be in. Measured by per capita income, the US might still be number one.

But that whole projection has to be taken with a grain of salt. Which projection in 1980 put China in 2019 where it is today? The leading economy in 2050 might as well be a country not even on the radar right now.

Boris Johnson will wreck the British economy. Given the chance, Donald Trump will do the same thing on this side of the pond.




Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival
Towards A World Government
30-30-30-10: A More Thoughtful And Egalitarian Formula For Equity Distribution In Tech Startups For The Age Of Abundance
The Blockchain: Fundamental Like The Internet
The Character Called The Tech Entrepreneur



India 2050: Amitabh Kant
5G Challenges US Hegemony
Brexit, Aexit, And Trump
African Economic Union
Understanding China (2)
Trump's Prospects In 2020
Understanding China
Political Fallout For Xi
Made In China 2025
Trade War: The Spiral Down Scenario
Three Crises: China, Iran, DC

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5G Challenges US Hegemony

The US has been acting like an empire. It acts like it owns a big chunk of the sky over the Pacific and the Atlantic. Only a few days ago I learned that. That is but ridiculous.

China is trying to imitate that behavior in the South China Sea. That is equally ridiculous.

This trade war is not David versus Goliath. This trade war is not who is right, who is wrong. There are two wrong parties.

There is a need for a new world order that is just. It is based on the premise that every human being is created equal.

5G is fundamental infrastructure. It is going to be vastly empowering for the individual everywhere.

The new order is not about challenging the United States or China. It is about challenging the very idea of the nation-state. The global village needs a village council.

5G challenges the nation-state. The Blockchain will challenge the US Fed, and every central bank on the planet. They have disproportionate powers.

The Internet challenged the media houses of the world. The Blockchain will challenge the banks of the world, among other things.

This trade war is stupid in that it is not even asking the right questions. It is a folly to try to answer the questions that are being asked.

Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival
Towards A World Government
30-30-30-10: A More Thoughtful And Egalitarian Formula For Equity Distribution In Tech Startups For The Age Of Abundance
The Blockchain: Fundamental Like The Internet
The Character Called The Tech Entrepreneur





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