Friday, May 24, 2019

Modi 2.0 And The 5G Question



Modi has earned himself another five years. One hopes there is not any other need for a shock therapy like demonetization. These five years are an opportunity to give India double-digit growth rates. 5G is fundamental to that equation. There is no way for India to avoid the Huawei question.

Modi's Second And Bigger Victory

Parroting the US position makes little sense. Instead, India should do its homework, in collaboration with others if necessary. Britain, France, and Germany are some powers that are eager to do their homework.

The bigger picture is privacy and security are major concerns with the internet in general. There are some policy solutions. Many solutions are technological and are in the future. Intelligence agencies do snoop in. That is true for all major powers. There is an urgent need to come together and create standards across emerging industries. That means countries coming together. That means the leading tech companies coming together.

When it comes to 5G equipment, looks like Huawei has hardware that is much better and much cheaper than its several rivals. The question being asked is, is it safe though? Britain, France, Germany, and India have enough expertise to be able to assess and answer that question. And if Huawei is not safe, are its rivals safe? Or do they offer the same vulnerabilities?

Right now 5G is the most critical infrastructure for India. It beats all else in importance. You roll out 5G and every city, town, village, and hamlet will have  become a "smart city." This has huge implications for commerce, for democracy, for the environment. It will become so much easier to measure air quality and water quality. It will decrease the pressure on the cities. Many more will be able to telecommute. It will most definitely give rise to new industries. A state like Bihar might give a million tutors to the world who all work from their homes in Bihar and teach kids around the world. Yoga teachers will similarly get global reach.

5G will take Modi's idea of "minimum government, maximum governance" to unprecedented heights. Much of the government will be online. There will remain very little need to visit government offices.

5G will revolutionize finance and access to credit for the poorest of the poor.

When hackers hack, they do so because you have internet access. It is absolutely possible for Huawei (or any other similar company) to create tiny "doors" for spy agencies. Just like it is absolutely possible for Microsoft to create little "doors" for the CIA in its Windows operating system. It is possible for Huawei competitors to do the same. It is possible for a company like Facebook to collect data on people and for some intelligence agency to create a bogus app that helps them vacuum that data. Facebook does not even have to actively cooperate.

All this does not take away from the promise of 5G. 5G will have 100 times greater impact than Indian Railways on the Indian economy. 5G is a train that you don't want to miss for too long. 5G is the ultimate Silk Road.

Privacy and security concerns must be addressed. But that requires countries and companies coming together and showing unprecedented levels of goodwill and cooperation.

The beauty of the 5G promise is, the Indian government does not have to spend a dime. All the action will be in the private sector. All you have to do is do your homework and approve.


Modi's Second And Bigger Victory
Trade War Endgame Scenarios: Look At Canada And North Korea For Hints
India And Reforms
New Twist In The Trade War: China Devalues Its Currency
5G And The Trade War
Huawei Founder Ren Zhengfei
A Truly Global Universal Basic Income
New Political And Economic Paradigms For The Age Of Abundance
The Inequality, The Climate Change


Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival
Towards A World Government
30-30-30-10: A More Thoughtful And Egalitarian Formula For Equity Distribution In Tech Startups For The Age Of Abundance
The Blockchain: Fundamental Like The Internet
The Character Called The Tech Entrepreneur



5G launch in India: Modi government to roll-out high-speed 5G telecom services by 2022 The South Asian nation, traditionally a laggard while embracing latest technology in telecommunications, will follow South Korea, Japan and China where 5G service will be offered within the next two years........ expects South Korea to launch these services by March 2019, Japan in late 2019 and China, along with most western major cities, in 2020......“India needs China to launch to drive economies of scale and lower cost 5G handsets. I think 2022 or later is appropriate for India” ..... So far, telecom infrastructure has got second place to physical infrastructure as Asian nation struggled to beef up its roads, ports and airports.
Trump Wants '5G' and 'Even 6G' Wireless Technology 'As Soon As Possible.' What's He Talking About? Autonomous vehicles could use 5G’s lower latency to respond quickly to changes in traffic and communicate with other connected equipment. And since 5G will be capable of helping low-power devices communicate with one another as coverage grows over the next decade, it could enable all sorts of new smart home tech, too...... The U.S. government is even pressuring allies to block Chinese-made 5G equipment, though some, like Germany, aren’t listening.
Narendra Modi government needs to focus on reviving sectoral health, deploy 5G: Industry
5G: Modi's next speed test "...accelerated deployment of next generation ubiquitous ultra-high broadband infrastructure with 100% coverage of 10 Gbps across urban India and 1 Gbps across rural India...". ...... 5G will enable electronic and mobile smart governance, remote health diagnosis, remote education, digital payments, Smart Cities, Smart Transportation, Internet of Things (IoT), Machine to Machine Communications (M2M), and smart devices enhanced by Artificial Intelligence (AI), such as driverless cars, smart houses, etc....... Airtel is set to deploy Massive Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO), a precursor of 5G, in Bengaluru and Kolkata. Nokia announced partnerships with both Bharti Airtel and Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL). Nokia also announced the establishment of a 5G IoT laboratory in Bengaluru. China's ZTE has initiated pre-5G trials with Airtel, Vodafone, and Reliance Jio........ A change in mindset is required in order to realise the potential benefits made possible by new broadband technologies and distributed computing networks, as well as by other technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Big Data, Cloud Computing, Virtual Reality, Augmented Reality, etc. ....... a HD movie takes 26 hours to download on 3G, six minutes on 4G, and only 5 seconds on 5G. ......... Suppose I am on an international flight when I get a brilliant brainwave for developing a new drug. My handset on the airplane should be able to quickly get me whatever research journals, medical databases, design, simulation and visualization tools I will need to immediately act on my brainwave. In fact, the network should "read my mind", quickly figure out by itself what resources and what information I need, and fetch them to my handset mid-air. ........ A major problem in developing such networks is that the software developers, system hardware engineers, radio and electromagnetic engineers, designers of integrated circuits, and semiconductor materials engineers do not understand each other and often work at cross-purposes. ........ These are all engineering challenges that require a multi-disciplinary approach, and the government's Rs 500 crore corpus should focus on creating such multi-disciplinary research teams at various Indian educational and research institutions.



Why Modi government wants India to go 5G in 2020 "We missed the opportunity to participate when the standards were being set for 3G and 4G, but don’t want to miss the 5G opportunity. Now when the standards are being set for 5G across the world, India will also participate in the process be successful in launching 5G by 2020." ..... the new standard — apart from just being faster than current generation 4G networks — will promise better latency and higher bandwidth, which will allow for a higher density of broadband users without slowing down the speed. ....The network will additionally also be optimised for Internet of Things (IoT) ...... The technological advancements of 5G will in part help the government make a renewed push for its "Digital India" initiative and cashless economy campaigns ..... The rollout of 5G technology will also make the government a lot of money from the auctioning of spectrum needed for newer technology. ...... Even though India was more than 10 years late in adopting 3G technology and lagged behind in adoption of 4G standards too, the government's plan of bringing the 5G network platform to the masses — rivaling the rollout in developed economies in Europe and America — is highly ambitious, but certainly achievable. ..... Airtel has announced that, initially, it will implement the new technology in Bangalore and Kolkata, and later expand to other parts of the country......Jio, which is based on an all-IP network and can be easily upgraded to 5G and beyond, has already announced that it will move to 5G standards shortly after the rollout.
Japan and India pledge cooperation on AI and 5G "No two nations have as much potential together as Japan and India," Abe said at the beginning of his meeting with Modi at the prime minister's office in Tokyo..... The two nations plan to conduct joint research on artificial intelligence. ....... The National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, one of Japan's largest public research institutions, and the Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad will jointly develop AI technology and begin research in the robotics field....... Japanese and Indian technology companies sense an opening as the U.S. and Australia restrict Chinese players like Huawei Technologies from supplying 5G equipment. A hundred times faster than current technology, 5G will form the communications infrastructure for the "internet of things" and self-driving cars........ The Japanese leader has told aides privately that he feels comfortable discussing global events, and not just bilateral issues, with the Indian leader...... His fondness for Modi was evident in a Facebook post on Monday. "I invited Prime Minister Modi to my vacation home, where just the two of us enjoyed a private dinner together," the Japanese prime minister wrote. "In that relaxed atmosphere, we talked frankly with each other about various topics. I want to continue to walk firmly hand in hand with Prime Minister Modi, aiming at bringing about a free and open Indo-Pacific." ....... The two countries will also collaborate on infrastructure, such as port and road projects in third countries like Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh. The Japanese government will assist with development in Northeast India as well.
India and Japan seal $75bn currency swap deal India and Japan on Monday inked a $75 billion bilateral currency swap agreement which should bring greater stability to foreign exchange and capital markets in Asia's third largest economy...... Japan and India had a currency swap agreement of up to $50 billion that had expired. The Indian rupee has tumbled 15% against the dollar since January amid the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. The new swap deal will guarantee a buyer for the rupee that will help to stem a fall in value in case of a currency crisis...... "The importance of [the] swap agreement is that India can borrow U.S. dollars from Japan and give it Indian rupees of the borrowed amount to stabilize its currency," said Shamshad Ahmad Khan, a visiting associate fellow at the Institute of Chinese Studies in New Delhi. "This is very important considering the timing when [the] Indian rupee is depreciating."........ Modi said the leaders had agreed on a "two-plus-two" dialogue between their foreign ministers and defense ministers, with the aim of working toward encouraging world peace and stability. ....... the strategy requires greater synergy between the two countries' defense and foreign ministries." ...... Modi also pointed out that Japanese investors, during his visit, have committed $2.5 billion to India, which would create employment for 30,000 people. "We will strengthen our partnership in every sphere, including digital, cyberspace, health, defense, oceans and space." ..... They also exchanged notes about a loan agreement for the ambitious 1.1 trillion rupee ($15 billion) Mumbai-Ahmedabad high speed rail, the construction of which started last year. Japan is funding over 80% of the project.

Photo via Ajay Bhagat




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Thursday, May 23, 2019

Modi's Second And Bigger Victory






No matter which way you look at it, it is just plain remarkable. Modi has managed to take his tally to almost 350. I have a feeling, by 2024, that tally might inch towards 400. The Congress Party needed a sympathy wave in 1984 to be in that 400 range. Modi is depending on his work, his organization, the electorate's intelligence.

India 2019: Looks Like A TsuNAMO

The terror attack in Kashmir and the Indian response to go deep inside Pakistani territory to wipe out a camp of terrorists sure played a role. That created a sympathy wave. But that was the icing on the cake. This dude has been doing the work.

He is a risktaker. 2014-2019 was the hard part. The next phase is not necessarily easier. But I would argue it is relatively easier. He does not need to give the Indian economy another shock therapy like demonetization.

Modi is an excellent communicator. He has a full agenda. I think he would be smart to co-opt Rahul Gandhi's Universal Basic Income idea for the bottom 20% and make his own. It is a sound idea. Automation will only accelerate. That has to be allowed. The productivity gains have to pay in the form of Value Added Tax. And that VAT has to fund the UBI.

Indira Gandhi nationalized the banks. Indian banks are state-owned. In that way India is China. But when you have as much corruption as there has been in India, and for such a long time, you end up with a huge pileup of non-performing loans, which drags down the economy's prospects. Some clean-up has been done. Much more remains to be done. Funneling credit to the small and medium enterprises, and the mom and pop stores, that are the dynamo of the economy is where job creation is. That has to be a top priority.

Sometime in the next few years, Modi has to take India to double-digit growth rates. That is the only way it can someday catch up to China. China growing at 5-6% and India growing at 10-11% is how. At this stage, 5-6% is excellent for China. But India can only truly reap its demographic dividend by growing at double-digit growth rates.

India is such a vast and diverse country. And it is a vibrant democracy. Everybody has an opinion. When Indians go grocery shopping, they haggle. It is free speech in action. To take major steps of reform while also dancing to the tunes of the electoral rhythms is a challenge. Modi is excellent at it. He is gifted. He is hard working. (The guy does not sleep.)

Overall I am optimistic that Modi will keep delivering. But the political path is bound to be full of surprises.

Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), India is projected to have become a larger economy than the US by 2030. It is befitting that that happens on Modi's watch. That is the projection. Modi has the option to accelerate it. The projection puts India at number two, and China at number one.

Chandrababu Naidu's move a few years ago to walk out of the NDA, in hindsight, looks like was a bad move. He has been wiped out, in his own state, and at the national level. One worries for the city of Amaravati.

West Bengal will fall. It will fall into the BJP's lap. That is the trend.

Modi basically repeated his 2014 performance in the Hindi heartland. That is quite a statement.

The BJP is the largest political party in the world.








Make in India should be aligned with a revamped Foreign Trade Policy to capture export market share amid ongoing dislocations in production base on the back of geopolitical uncertainty like trade wars and Brexit

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Trade War Commentaries











































































Trump walkout marks point of no return Trump's strategy of torching a meeting, turning on his heel and raising the stakes is familiar from his life as a real estate magnate. But there is increasing evidence that walking away for the table doesn't work as well for a President as it can for businessmen........ He tried it with North Korea, and the Stalinist state still has its nuclear weapons. He did it with China, and a trade war is deepening........ "The President is, frankly, taking a position that no other president in history has ever taken, which is that somehow if you are being investigated by the Congress you can't do anything else," said Clinton's former chief of staff Leon Panetta........ The result of Wednesday's angry exchange is a Washington facing the prospect of a prolonged period of complete breakdown between the Congress and the White House.

Trump's golfing has cost taxpayers more than $100 million, by 1 estimate. That's not really the hinky part.

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Wednesday, May 22, 2019

One Million Uighurs

compared Trump on China to Ronald Reagan on the Soviet Union—ahead of his time in confronting its malevolence...... The Chinese Communist Party may worry about its ability to preserve its control. Otherwise, why would it need to build a surveillance state, to put 1 million Uighurs in “reeducation camps,” to ostracize and imprison human-rights lawyers, or to “disappear” the head of Interpol? But it doesn’t appear to be anywhere near actually losing that control.......... Previous American presidents theorized that China would see the advantages of becoming rule-abiding. Trump theorizes that the American economy is strong enough to force Chinese submission. Those different approaches portend very different kinds of relations for the United States with China: The first would make them partners in prosperity; the second would reveal them supplicants........ Treasury Secretary Wilbur Ross thinks not only that the U.S. will win the trade war, but that it may result in social unrest that challenges Communist Party control in China. So we are back to regime change, but this time by threatening penury rather than luring with prosperity.




China Isn’t Cheating on Trade Democrats and Republicans echo Trump’s anti-Beijing rhetoric, but escalating tensions could leave Americans far worse off. ......... in the coming weeks, the United States and China will sign an agreement that repeals the tariffs the two nations have been levying on each other’s goods for the past nine months. If past behavior is any guide, Donald Trump will call it the greatest deal ever, and global markets will breathe a sigh of relief. ......... Trump has already begun to renege on commitments made as part of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, which he hailed as “incredible” in October. ......... Politically, Beijing is growing more authoritarian, as evidenced by its Orwellian domestic-surveillance policies, its mass internment of Muslim Uighurs, and the cult of personality now developing around Chinese President Xi Jinping. Militarily, China increasingly dominates the South China Sea. .............. “a new consensus”—that only a far tougher U.S. trade policy can prevent Beijing from continuing to rip off America—“is rising across America.” .......... top Democrats have scrambled to out-hawk Trump on trade. .......top Democrats and Republicans in Congress are warning that Trump’s China trade deal won’t be tough enough...... Complaints like these have come to dominate Beltway discourse not because the evidence underlying them is particularly strong. It isn’t. They have come to dominate Beltway discourse because Democrats and Republicans both believe that Trump’s anti-China message helped him win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and that the path to the presidency runs through those states again in 2020. The political incentive to be tough on China over trade today is blinding politicians to the risks of an escalating conflict that could leave Americans poorer, less free, and—perhaps—even at war. .......... Beijing’s economic policies are actually quite typical of a country at its stage of development. Like many regimes in the developing world, Beijing fears the “middle-income trap,” in which rising wages undermine its advantage as a center of low-cost manufacturing before it develops the capacity to produce higher-value goods. China worries that unless it moves from assembling iPhones to inventing them, economic growth will stagnate and popular unrest will follow. ....... China therefore erects tariffs to protect industries it hopes will help it make that leap. So did the United States when it was industrializing. ......... China has a lower trade-weighted average tariff than Argentina, Brazil, India, South Korea, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico. ........ ranked countries on how well they protect the intellectual property of foreign companies, China scored fairly well among developing nations: just below Mexico and Malaysia but above Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, and the Philippines ........... A 2017 study of cases in which foreign companies sued for patent infringement in Chinese courts by Renjun Bian of the University of California at Berkeley School of Law found that foreign companies actually prevailed at higher rates than did Chinese litigants. ........... Beijing pours money into promising companies in ways the United States and most European governments do not. But this isn’t unusual among developing economies either. ...........China actually intervenes less than India, Vietnam, and Brazil, some of America’s best friends in the developing world. .......... “unlike many of its [developing economy] peers, China is making concrete progress in building a 21st century national IP environment.” ....... a “natural evolution. Countries tend to be slapdash about IP until they get sophisticated enough to have a lot of their own IP to protect.” ........ National Counterintelligence and Security Center last year admitted that, while China still hacks into American companies (something the United States has also allegedly done to Chinese companies), such activity occurs “at lower volumes than existed before the bilateral September 2015 U.S.-China cyber commitments.” In other words, diplomacy worked........ the best way to accelerate China’s transition is to build alliances with other governments concerned by its economic practices, and to use that common leverage to press Beijing. That was part of the strategy behind the Trans-Pacific Partnership, through which the United States and 11 other Pacific nations would lower their barriers to trade and investment. When the TPP’s prospects looked bright, China reportedly began considering joining itself, which could have compelled it to make some of the very changes Trump is demanding now. But in 2016, Trump, with the help of progressive Democrats such as Sanders, made TPP politically radioactive........ rather than making common cause with Canada, Japan, France, and other democracies aggrieved by China’s trading practices, his administration has slapped tariffs on them. All of which has isolated the United States and left it seeking concessions from China that would be easier to secure were the Trump administration not working alone........ Historically, the United States has been one of the WTO’s most successful plaintiffs. But according to Simon Lester of the Cato Institute, the Trump administration has brought only two new cases against China at the WTO. And Trump officials, in keeping with their general hostility toward international organizations, regularly trash the organization........ But it’s not Xi who is crippling the WTO. It’s Trump. ....... “China does a reasonably good job of complying with WTO complaints brought against it.” The Trump administration, by contrast, has systematically blocked the reappointment of judges on the WTO’s dispute-settlement body and thus, according to Reuters, has “plunge[d] the organization into crisis.”.............

the self-destructive absurdity of Trump’s behavior

......... If Chinese companies forge high-tech collaborations in Europe and Chinese students forge scientific breakthroughs at laboratories in Australia, American politicians—in their effort to quarantine China from global innovation—may end up quarantining the United States instead....... the United States has a long history of anti-Asian bigotry, especially during periods of conflict with Asian governments........ Since 2009, according to a 2017 study by the Chinese American Committee of 100, Asian Americans have been twice as likely as other Americans to be the subject of bogus prosecutions (prosecutions that don’t result in a conviction) under the Economic Espionage Act. Trump himself in August reportedly claimed that “almost every student that comes over to this country [from China] is a spy.” .......... The more trade hawks decouple America and China economically, the less incentive the two countries will have for mutual accommodation, since, as the Rand Corporation’s Ali Wyne has observed, “there are few factors … besides trade interdependence that compel the United States and China to exercise mutual restraint.” ....... The “painful adjustments” that America must make to accommodate China are more painful because the United States government has done so little to cushion Americans from the dislocation caused by China’s economic rise.

If Americans who lost their jobs didn’t also lose their health care; if they had access to generous government wage subsidies, retraining programs, and even guaranteed federal jobs; if paying for college didn’t plunge them and their children into debt—then the political incentive to scapegoat Beijing might not be as great. Over the past two decades, American politicians have not proved weak and inert in responding to China’s real and imagined misdeeds. They have proved weak and inert in responding to their own citizens’ needs. The reckoning Washington requires is not with China. It’s with itself.
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The Mighty Dollar

The starting point is the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency and international monetary standard, and the US current account deficit is the only mechanism through which the global supply of dollars can be increased. This is why a global economic boom often coincides with a higher US current account deficit, while global recessions often see the US current account moving in the opposite direction............ the expected surge in Chinese imports would almost close up America’s entire current account deficit and this would lead to a global dollar shortage. As a result, market forces would likely drive up the dollar to such a level where US exports to other parts of the world would be reduced, thus “re-creating” a trade or current account deficit. ...... In the end, either higher short rates or a stronger US dollar or both would act to slow down the US economy and ensure that America’s trade balance is more or less unchanged. ...... a Sino-US trade deal could simply amount to a zero-sum game in the short term: a gain for the US, a loss for the rest of the world, and indifference for China ..... a net efficiency loss in the world supply chains. ........ To avert or minimise the adverse impact of a China-US trade deal on the rest of the world economy, the Sino-US trade deal should focus on Beijing’s protective trade and investment policies rather than bilateral trade imbalance. The China-US trade imbalance is the natural result of global supply-chain evolution, and eliminating this imbalance is too disruptive for every country involved. ....... making sure that Beijing plays by the rules and levels off the playing field for foreign businesses and suppliers would represent a net gain for the world economy, benefiting all.
A US-China trade deal won’t be a win for global markets if Beijing shifts its trade surplus to other countries

A little good news could go a long way. If the US and China are shrewd enough, between them they can clinch recovery with a trade compromise that convinces investors that the future remains bright.
The world is taking leave of its senses and falling down the rabbit hole of a deepening global trade war, economic shocks and political instability. The post-war world order is breaking down, multilateralism is giving way to national self-interest and the political forums for peaceful debate are failing.......It’s time for someone to step forward and show stronger leadership before the world sinks back to where the 2008 financial crisis left off. Right now, the world is in self-harm mode and deeply vulnerable.
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India 2019: Looks Like A TsuNAMO

90 minutes into the vote counting, and it is beginning to look like a massive victory for Narendra Modi. If he pulls a hattrick and wins again in 2024, he joins the rank of the Congress Party's Nehru. This is happening after a long time in India that a party with a majority is winning another five-year term. He should be able to give India double-digit growth rates before he goes to the people again in 2024.





3:30 AM EST Update



My Projection Puts Modi At 300-350

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2020: The Year Of The Social Democrat

2020 is going to be the year of the Social Democrat. The New Democrat reign lasted from 1992 to 2016. Now the mainstream talk inside the Democratic Party is that of the Social Democrat. The most popular ideas are those pushed by the Social Democrats.

Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival

The New Democrat claimed to have moved to "the center," wherever that was, whatever latitude and longitude. The Social Democrat has a strong, uncompromising focus on human capital and the environment, is unapologetic about tackling inequality. But the Social Democrat also must have an energized sense of the role of tech entrepreneurship in the solutions of tomorrow. In that sense, the Social Democrat occupies the revitalized center. The Social Democrat is not giving a leftward lurch to the party and abandoning all hopes of victory.

Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival

The Universal Basic Income that Andrew Yang is talking about only truly works the way it is supposed to work when new technology has given the economy massive increases in productivity. In one projection the US starts seeing annual growth rates of 50%. You can not talk down those tech entrepreneurs. They are part of the solution.

Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival

The wealth tax that Elizabeth Warren is talking about is the saving grace for capitalism. Inequality is as much an existential threat as climate change. 


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Andrew Yang: Universal Basic Income, Elizabeth Warren: Wealth Tax

Andrew Yang is not a one trick pony, although he almost exclusively talks about the Universal Basic Income. His website has the richest policy proposals of any candidate with the possible exception of Elizabeth Warren. Elizabeth Warren's central idea is the idea of the wealth tax. I fully support. These are two ideas that can not lose, no matter if Andrew Yang and Elizabeth Warren win or not.

That is why the presidential campaign is so important. That is why the debates are so important. These two ideas have to be hammered into the political discourse.

Bernie Sanders, similarly, talks about Medicare For All. Many candidates do. But Bernie has been the most vocal. He was talking about it also in 2016. This is also an idea I like. Obviously, three people are not going to win. There will eventually be only one winner.

But all three of these ideas must win.

And there is the Green New Deal. It is not a specific idea right now. It is more of a conversation. It is more the outlines of a paradigm. And the face associated with it is not even running, can't run. But it is the biggest idea of all. And it also must win. All four ideas must win.

The one who will win will win. But the campaign has to be conducted in such a respectful way that all the candidates together build a platform that includes these wonderful ideas.




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Trade War: Intellectual Property

It is easy to see why the US gets so passionate about IP, but it is not the “existential” issue so many Americans claim. IP may be central to the US’ view of itself as the world’s technology leader – but it is also a massive earner. The US may have a miserable trade deficit in manufactures, but it has a handsome surplus in services exports, and right up there is the money it earns from royalties in payment for IP rights....... In 2017, this amounted to US$128 billion – second only to earnings from tourism and education services (US$211 billion), and well ahead of financial services (US$109 billion) and transport services (US$89 billion). A tighter deal on IP protections would mean a significant boost to services exports........ Flying in the face of claims that China abuses IP rights is the reality that China pays more to the US in royalties than any other economy. Wanting to sell more IP to China is, just like wanting to sell more beef or soya, a perfectly reasonable aspiration. So is selling legal services – and there can be no bigger beneficiary of negotiating IP arrangements than the US’ army of IP lawyers. ...... China is not wrong to try to keep the cost of royalty payments at a manageable level, so there is a perfectly reasonable negotiation to be had over rules for royalty payments. There is no place for electorally pungent claims that China is in some way “stealing its way up the economic ladder”, as Christopher Wray at the FBI puts it....... The relative market calm suggests that no one believes this breakdown will not be resolved.
No trade deal? Why China should walk away and hit back at the US, in the sectors where it really hurts

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