Saturday, May 11, 2019
Friday, May 10, 2019
Could Arithmetic Force Modi And Rahul To Team Up?
What the final tally will be is anybody's guess right now, but let's say this is how it rolls: "...the post-poll scenario will be dictated by regional parties that will climb back to the pre-2014 situation with 223-225 seats.......my estimate is that BJP’s tally will be around 170-180, down from 282 in 2014 and Congress’ may rise to 140-150, which will be phenomenal from 44 in 2014 ..... "
BJP and allies: 170-180
Congress and allies: 140-150.
Federal Front: 200-220
Most people might suggest this means the Federal Front will get the Prime Minister with outside support from the Congress. But then no regional party might get more than 30 MPs.
Another option would be for the BJP and the Congress to come together with Modi as Prime Minister and Rahul Gandhi as Deputy Prime Minister. That might be a more stable government. In a democracy, you respect the people's verdict. Modi has made remarkable progress on issues like ease of doing business and infrastructure, whereas Rahul Gandhi has come up with the wonderful idea of a Universal Basic Income for the bottom 20% of the people. Country above party, as both like to say.
BJP and allies: 170-180
Congress and allies: 140-150.
Federal Front: 200-220
Most people might suggest this means the Federal Front will get the Prime Minister with outside support from the Congress. But then no regional party might get more than 30 MPs.
Another option would be for the BJP and the Congress to come together with Modi as Prime Minister and Rahul Gandhi as Deputy Prime Minister. That might be a more stable government. In a democracy, you respect the people's verdict. Modi has made remarkable progress on issues like ease of doing business and infrastructure, whereas Rahul Gandhi has come up with the wonderful idea of a Universal Basic Income for the bottom 20% of the people. Country above party, as both like to say.
Could Arithmetic Force Modi And Rahul To Team Up? https://t.co/vRCRWYe5hH @narendramodi @BJP4India @RahulGandhi
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
The US China Tension: Creative Or Destructive?
The US-China trade war is more political than economic. Economic theory is largely pro-trade. But considering military tussle is not an option, the two powers are engaged in a trade war to score the many political points.
The US saw a declared socialist Bernie Sanders emerge a serious candidate for president in 2016, and he is running again. This is a new development. Socialism used to be a clearly dirty word in US politics.
Most US manufacturing jobs have been lost to automation, not China or Mexico, and that is set to accelerate, also inside China. That is an argument for abundance economics policies like Universal Basic Income and massive investments in human capital, namely education, and health.
The trade tussle might be more to do with the fact that China is now neck and neck to the size of the US economy. It might be a prestige issue.
If the Chinese economy opens up more as a result, that would be a good thing. But the more likely effect could come in the form of a global recession if there are miscalculations and the trade war goes full-fledged.
The chances of a full-fledged trade war are low. The US and Chinese economies might more or less stay on their projected paths. The real question is, where will the US economy stand in 2020, and what would that mean for Trump politically? The US economy is projected to hit a recession this year or the next with or without the trade war.
China is not projected to replace the US as the number one power in the world. Numerous powers are projected to emerge in various parts of the world.
The US saw a declared socialist Bernie Sanders emerge a serious candidate for president in 2016, and he is running again. This is a new development. Socialism used to be a clearly dirty word in US politics.
Most US manufacturing jobs have been lost to automation, not China or Mexico, and that is set to accelerate, also inside China. That is an argument for abundance economics policies like Universal Basic Income and massive investments in human capital, namely education, and health.
The trade tussle might be more to do with the fact that China is now neck and neck to the size of the US economy. It might be a prestige issue.
If the Chinese economy opens up more as a result, that would be a good thing. But the more likely effect could come in the form of a global recession if there are miscalculations and the trade war goes full-fledged.
The chances of a full-fledged trade war are low. The US and Chinese economies might more or less stay on their projected paths. The real question is, where will the US economy stand in 2020, and what would that mean for Trump politically? The US economy is projected to hit a recession this year or the next with or without the trade war.
China is not projected to replace the US as the number one power in the world. Numerous powers are projected to emerge in various parts of the world.
India 2019: The Scenario Of A Federal Front Lead
Fasten your seat belts on D-Street: Major horse trading ahead post May 23 https://t.co/rnlq8HUYUb via @economictimes
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
Mamata and Naidu hold closed door meeting on Mahagathbandhan future course https://t.co/yJIdWRXK5M via @economictimes
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
300 seats for BJP: Nitin Gadkari differs with Ram Madhav's assessment https://t.co/W24uQkLDa9 via @economictimes
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
Fasten your seat belts on D-Street: Major horse trading ahead post May 23 As per my assessment, the post-poll scenario will be dictated by regional parties. ...... the post-poll scenario will be dictated by regional parties that will climb back to the pre-2014 situation with 223-225 seats. Regional parties belonging to the NDA will likely see a downdraft from 54 to 25-30 seats along with the declining vote and seat share of the BJP. ...... my estimate is that BJP’s tally will be around 170-180, down from 282 in 2014 and Congress’ may rise to 140-150, which will be phenomenal from 44 in 2014. At these levels, the Congress could be back to its 2004 tally of 145 when UPA-1 government came to power after overturning the ‘India Shining’ narrative of the Vajpayee-led NDA government. Hence, the NDA score could be around 210 seats, down from 336 in 2014 ....... a sub-200 tally for the BJP is a realistic projection, in my view, and this will restrict the NDA tally to around 200-220.
PM escalates his campaign in UP and West Bengal in the last lap https://t.co/g7fDIFE9bn via @economictimes
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
China US Trade War Escalation
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— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
Slamming more tariffs on China isn't going to squeeze out a better deal from Beijing, says @abrownepek https://t.co/jaVBTfnqj5 via @bopinion
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
Your all time favorite President got tired of waiting for China to help out and start buying from our FARMERS, the greatest anywhere in the World!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 10, 2019
Trump tweeted that despite the new round of tariffs that went into effect Friday, there is “no need to rush” negotiations with Beijing https://t.co/3jzL6gYYzY
— POLITICO (@politico) May 10, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 10, 2019
How Goes the Trade War? by Paul Krugman Donald Trump ... provided us with many iconic quotations .... extremely clear examples of bad ideas........ foreigners paid none of the bill, U.S. companies and consumers paid all of it. And the losses to U.S. consumers exceeded the revenue from the new tariffs, so the tariffs made America poorer overall...... These price hikes led to substantial changes in behavior. Imports of the tariffed items fell sharply, partly because consumers turned to domestic products, but also in large part because importers shifted their sourcing to countries that aren’t currently facing Trump tariffs. For example, a number of companies already seem to have begun buying goods they previously bought from China from Vietnam or Mexico instead........... Consider the following example: pre-tariff, the U.S. imports some good from China that costs $100. Then the Trump administration imposes a 25% tariff, raising the price to consumers to $125. If we just keep importing that good from China, consumers lose $25 per unit purchased – but the government raises an extra $25 in taxes, leaving overall national income unchanged.......... Suppose, however, that importers shift to a more expensive source that isn’t subject to the tariff; suppose, for example, that they can buy the good from Vietnam for $115. Then consumers only lose $15 – but there is no tariff revenue, so that $15 is a loss for the nation as a whole........... But what if they turn to a domestic supplier – say, a U.S. company that will sell the product for $120. How does this change the story? ......... Here the crucial thing is that producing a good domestically has an opportunity cost. The U.S. is near full employment, so the $120 in resources used to produce that good could and would have been employed producing something else in the absence of the tariff. Diverting them into producing what we used to import means a net loss of $20, with no revenue offset. ....... in practice any manufacturing jobs added by the Trump tariffs are probably offset by losses of other manufacturing jobs. ........ most of the tariffs are on intermediate goods – inputs into production, so that job gains in, say, steel are offset by losses in autos and other downstream sectors. Beyond that, the tariffs have probably contributed to a rising dollar, which makes U.S. exports less competitive.
Thursday, May 09, 2019
Wednesday, May 08, 2019
India 2019: The Suspense
If the BJP-led alliance is at 250 or above, it might be able to still cobble together a majority by pulling in a few parties. But if the tally is closer to 200, that opens up the distinct possibility of the emergence of a new Prime Minister. As to who that new face will be is not at all clear.
The total number of seats is 545. That puts the halfway mark at 273. There are three camps: the BJP-led alliance, the Congress-led alliance, and the unaffiliated, sometimes known as the Federal Front. It is possible the unaffiliated could emerge as the second largest block after the Congress-led alliance and seek the outside support of the Congress-led alliance. As in, the BJP-led alliance could emerge the largest but not the majority block and still have to sit out.
Or Modi could easily hit 300. It is hard to tell.
NDA: 250-300, UPA: 80-120, FF: 160-200. If the Federal Front crosses 200, it might as well claim the top job.
On election results, it is best to keep an open mind One of the great charms of Indian democracy is the power of the silent voters ....... When the counting began for the 2014 election, there was very little expectation that some four hours later India would be witnessing a clear Narendra Modi victory, an event that was subsequently to be described as a ‘wave’. As Prannoy Roy has written in a recent book, even the outcome of the tsunami election of 1984 was largely unanticipated by the pundits........ the larger suspense will persist till the morning of May 23. ....... particularly true of rural women whose voting preferences are often not robustly factored in....... In the Delhi assembly election of 2013, the Aam Aadmi Party made its electoral debut. Its campaign was enthusiastic but not very organized. That was evident on polling day when the AAP’s patchy presence contrasted with the organized approach of both the Congress and the BJP. Yet, AAP performed spectacularly and came within a whisker of upstaging the BJP as the single largest party.......... Modi’s meetings in West Bengal for example have been hugely attended. The numbers attending are also far in excess of what the BJP’s weak organizational apparatus in the state can mobilize. Indeed, the success of these meetings has forced the West Bengal chief minister to organize many more public meetings than she originally planned. In places where the crowds have not matched her expectations, she has followed the meetings with a padayatra....... the raw human emotion of an election is never captured by surveys and exit polls. This is why it is best to approach the morning of May 23 with an open mind.
BJP banks on Bengal Ground reports from three rounds of polling indicate that the party could lose a chunk of the seats it had won in 2014 ...... “We could lose around 50 seats we had won in 2014 in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Bihar and Jharkhand. However, we are confident of springing a surprise in Bengal, Odisha and also in the Northeast to an extent to offset the losses,” one of the BJP leaders monitoring the party’s election war room in Delhi said...... “We are banking heavily on Bengal and Odisha. If we falter in these states, our tally will come down substantially,” another BJP leader said. “It would be very difficult for us to come close to the majority mark if the showing is not good in Bengal and Odisha,” the leader added....... “Our feedback shows there is a high chance of us winning between 10-15 seats in Bengal and anything between 5-10 seats in Odisha,” a BJP leader said....... The most serious losses are being feared in Uttar Pradesh, owing to the formidable BSP-SP-RLD alliance. ....The BJP has received reports of losses in Maharashtra owing to acute agrarian distress and the Congress-NCP alliance.
The total number of seats is 545. That puts the halfway mark at 273. There are three camps: the BJP-led alliance, the Congress-led alliance, and the unaffiliated, sometimes known as the Federal Front. It is possible the unaffiliated could emerge as the second largest block after the Congress-led alliance and seek the outside support of the Congress-led alliance. As in, the BJP-led alliance could emerge the largest but not the majority block and still have to sit out.
Or Modi could easily hit 300. It is hard to tell.
NDA: 250-300, UPA: 80-120, FF: 160-200. If the Federal Front crosses 200, it might as well claim the top job.
On election results, it is best to keep an open mind One of the great charms of Indian democracy is the power of the silent voters ....... When the counting began for the 2014 election, there was very little expectation that some four hours later India would be witnessing a clear Narendra Modi victory, an event that was subsequently to be described as a ‘wave’. As Prannoy Roy has written in a recent book, even the outcome of the tsunami election of 1984 was largely unanticipated by the pundits........ the larger suspense will persist till the morning of May 23. ....... particularly true of rural women whose voting preferences are often not robustly factored in....... In the Delhi assembly election of 2013, the Aam Aadmi Party made its electoral debut. Its campaign was enthusiastic but not very organized. That was evident on polling day when the AAP’s patchy presence contrasted with the organized approach of both the Congress and the BJP. Yet, AAP performed spectacularly and came within a whisker of upstaging the BJP as the single largest party.......... Modi’s meetings in West Bengal for example have been hugely attended. The numbers attending are also far in excess of what the BJP’s weak organizational apparatus in the state can mobilize. Indeed, the success of these meetings has forced the West Bengal chief minister to organize many more public meetings than she originally planned. In places where the crowds have not matched her expectations, she has followed the meetings with a padayatra....... the raw human emotion of an election is never captured by surveys and exit polls. This is why it is best to approach the morning of May 23 with an open mind.
BJP banks on Bengal Ground reports from three rounds of polling indicate that the party could lose a chunk of the seats it had won in 2014 ...... “We could lose around 50 seats we had won in 2014 in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Bihar and Jharkhand. However, we are confident of springing a surprise in Bengal, Odisha and also in the Northeast to an extent to offset the losses,” one of the BJP leaders monitoring the party’s election war room in Delhi said...... “We are banking heavily on Bengal and Odisha. If we falter in these states, our tally will come down substantially,” another BJP leader said. “It would be very difficult for us to come close to the majority mark if the showing is not good in Bengal and Odisha,” the leader added....... “Our feedback shows there is a high chance of us winning between 10-15 seats in Bengal and anything between 5-10 seats in Odisha,” a BJP leader said....... The most serious losses are being feared in Uttar Pradesh, owing to the formidable BSP-SP-RLD alliance. ....The BJP has received reports of losses in Maharashtra owing to acute agrarian distress and the Congress-NCP alliance.
Tuesday, May 07, 2019
India 2019: Some Projections
Scenario 1: The BJP led alliance falls short of the halfway mark and quickly pulls in a few regional parties to form a majority. This was the talk of the town yesterday.
Scenario 2: The BJP improves on its tally from 2014. This might not be likely.
Scenario 3: The BJP does less well than in 2014 but still manages to cross the majority mark and forms another government for five years.
Scenario 4: The arithmetic is tri-polar: the BJP led alliance, the Congress-led alliance which is much smaller, and the non-BJP, non-Congress Federal Front alliance which asks the Congress for outside support to form a government.
Right now scenario one seems to be in the air. People are talking about it. But nobody knows for sure.
Somebody like the Orissa chief minister Patnayak might be willing to support the BJP led alliance in the case the need arises.
Scenario 2: The BJP improves on its tally from 2014. This might not be likely.
Scenario 3: The BJP does less well than in 2014 but still manages to cross the majority mark and forms another government for five years.
Scenario 4: The arithmetic is tri-polar: the BJP led alliance, the Congress-led alliance which is much smaller, and the non-BJP, non-Congress Federal Front alliance which asks the Congress for outside support to form a government.
Right now scenario one seems to be in the air. People are talking about it. But nobody knows for sure.
Somebody like the Orissa chief minister Patnayak might be willing to support the BJP led alliance in the case the need arises.
Monday, May 06, 2019
The Indian Election: Hard To Predict
'Mahagathbandhan' will give rise to 'mahabhrashtachar': PM Modihttps://t.co/tl0JTGbIen— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 6, 2019
View: Visible lack of enthusiasm in BJP cadre is in marked contrast to polarised mood of the electoratehttps://t.co/UjWztRTILB— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 6, 2019
Congress assessment shows BJP will lose: Rahul Gandhihttps://t.co/cxKmUcGvyy— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 6, 2019
If opposition wins, there will be different PM every day: Amit Shahhttps://t.co/HEvOplbYnW— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 6, 2019
Modi "touched base" with almost every Indian in 125 dayshttps://t.co/z2UfFeaDLm— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 6, 2019
View: The long wait for May 23 may end in a surprise verdicthttps://t.co/X3V71Uhuwb— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 6, 2019
View: Signs of who is winning or losing are already around ushttps://t.co/tCmexmg1eS— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 6, 2019
Country won't forgive Modi for Rajiv remarks: Raj Thackerayhttps://t.co/ajsew4Sgi8— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 6, 2019
Bloomberg: Lok Sabha 2019: West Bengal's Mamata Banerjee Fights Modi.https://t.co/tfiY3nZ98W— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 6, 2019
via @GoogleNews
PM Modi's interview to India TV https://t.co/Fz1sCpojqj via @YouTube— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 5, 2019
ऐसा फर्स्ट टाइम वोटर करोड़ों में एक मिलता है जो Modi और Rahul Gandhi पर ... https://t.co/qFpAkd3ff2 via @YouTube— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 6, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 6, 2019
Mayawati hints at her PM ambitionhttps://t.co/iOuuZyxPCf
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 7, 2019
How 'Kashi Warriors' keep BJP's campaign pot boiling in Varanasihttps://t.co/KyENHdNyAP
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 7, 2019
5th phase over, efforts begin for forming non-BJP, non-Congress alliancehttps://t.co/lSOC9n9dy3
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 7, 2019
Bullet-proofing experts, slogan writers win big in India pollshttps://t.co/Zj4A3FZdBJ
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 7, 2019
United Front-type govt "only likelihood" now: TRS leaderhttps://t.co/SQYyvEA1V3
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 7, 2019
Why Jyotiraditya Scindia campaigns with an onion in his pockethttps://t.co/c56DmZewoy
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 7, 2019
Elections 2019: As KCR Launches "Third Front" Meetings, Stalin "Busy" With Campaign - NDTV https://t.co/YZJsGWmWCB
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 7, 2019
Monday, April 29, 2019
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