Barackface

Friday, June 19, 2015

The Donald Is Plenty Smart

Never for one second think Donald Trump is stupid. He did not become a billionaire without doing some strategic thinking on the side. He is smart, that is precisely why he picked the party of stupid. He knows it will be easier to shine.

Only a few years back The Donald hosted Gaddafi on his property, but we are not going to talk about that. I would not want to hurt him politically.

All that Climate Change denying the Republicans did over the years, all that is now going to come to haunt them.

And to think The Donald used to be an Independent, then he realized all the fun that is to be had is in the Republican Party. Just you watch!

I don't know how The Donald feels about the Democrats in the race, but I happen to think they are too wonky! Nerds! Too many words. Too many books. Not enough pictures.

I think the 2016 race is going to be memorable, and The Trump is one of the reasons why. His out of the box hair is, quite literally, symbolic of his out of the box thinking. Republicans in Alabama don't know what just hit them.

No one is going to complain about there being too many debates. The refrain might be, not enough debates! There is sooooo much to talk about. The country's future is at stake, for Chrissake!

Donald Trump is a serious dude who just happens to have a sense of humor. Some people mistake his sense of humor and don't take him seriously.

Memo to Dems: The Donald is a gift that keeps giving.

The Trump's Trump Card
Friends Of Hillary: On Both Sides?

The Trump's Trump Card

Remember when Condoleezza Rice got confused between Iraq and Iran on national television? To her credit (god bless her soul), she corrected herself before the sentence was over. But there are about 50 million Republicans who never did. And these are all people with voting rights. I worry for democracy in America.

Donald Trump entering the race is like the fox has entered the hen house. There was already a dearth of ideas among Republican candidates. Now this dude is going to suck up the remaining little oxygen. It is not possible to hold an intelligent policy conversation with this guy. Did you notice what he said about Mexicans? He sounds like Hillary 2016's Hispanic vote consolidation exercise, Hillary's own internal Hispanic voter outreach program.

"I beat the Chinese all the time!"
- Donald Trump

This quote is going to be the high point of his run. And he thinks he is beating the Chinese "all the time" because "I just sold an apartment to somebody from China." Is there something about the apartment the buyer needed to know? I defend the Donald's right to free speech. What would America be without a few microphones?

For every nonsensical remark you think Trump is making, there are about a million people out there who are lapping it up like it were gospel truth. Do not take this guy for granted. I am saying that to the Republicans in the race.

Friends Of Hillary: On Both Sides?

लव वापसी, घर जिहाद और पहले आप पहले आप

Indian actor Shah Rukh Khan, arrival for press conference of "Om Shanti Om" at the Hyatt Hotel, Potsdamer Platz, Berlin (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

English: Indian actor Shahrukh Khan, arrival for press conference of "Om Shanti Om" at the Hyatt Hotel, Potsdamer Platz, Berlin (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

में प्राइड की बात मानता हुँ। गर्व करना चाहिए। लेकिन गर्व vacuum में नहीं होता है। उसके लिए बनाना पड़ता है। एक वर्ल्ड क्लास अर्थतंत्र का निर्माण तो करो पहले। भारत को विश्व शक्ति बनना चाहिए, वो बात और तो और अमरिका भी कहती है ----- क्योंकि उसको अकेले दुनिया भर दौड़ना परता है। भारत विश्व शक्ति बन जाए तो थोड़ा मदत हो जाए, भारत भी इधर उधर दौड़ने लगे।

भारत विश्व शक्ति बनने का तरिका है (१) अर्थतंत्र मजबुत करो (२) लोकतंत्र मजबुत करो। Hindu unity का तरिका है caste system ख़त्म करो। आप भारत के अर्थतंत्र कमजोर करने का काम करो, लोकतंत्र को कमजोर करने का काम करो, Hindu unity पर अटैक करो ---- तो चाहे आप मुँह से जो कहो लेकिन आपका व्यवहार कह रहा है आप भारत को विश्व शक्ति नहीं बनने देना चाहते।

कोइ किससे शादी करेगा -- ये तो उनका प्राइवेट मामला है। शाहरुख़ और गौरी की शादी दुनिया में एक मिशाल है। दुनिया भर में लोग कहते हैं, देखो भारत में हिन्दु और मुस्लिम एक ही घर में। उससे समाज और देश मजबुत होता है। Shahrukh Khan (Bad Shah --- यानि कि नटखट शाह --- badass जो कहते हैं अंग्रेजी में, हिंदी में शायद बिंदास कहते हैं) is a brand ambassador of India.

लव वापसी, घर जिहाद और पहले आप पहले आप। शाहरुख़ ने १०० फिल्में बनाई -- आप ने क्या बनाई?

सब न्युज मैं पढ़ नहीं पाता हुँ --- स्वाभाविक है। जैसे कि beef के बारे में मैंने नहीं पढ़ी है, एक दो हेडलाइंस पढ़ी है। Beef हिन्दु नहीं खाते --- वो समझने की बात है। लेकिन beef तो रिश्वत नहीं की आप कहो खुद भी नहीं खाउंगा और तुझे भी खाने नहीं दुँगा। Freedom of religion is like free speech --- उसके बगैर लोकतंत्र का कल्पना नहीं किया जा सकता। मेरे राज्य में, मेरे देश में beef मत खाओ कहना धार्मिक नहीं संकीर्ण विचारधारा है। वो तो ऐसा हुवा कि आप किसी मुसलमान को कह रहे हो, कुरान मत पढ़ो। इसाई को कह रहे हो, बाइबल मत पढ़ो। वो आप कहने वाले कौन होते हैं?A democracy is, by definition, tolerant. भारतका शक्ति ही भारत का लोकतंत्र है।

कोइ धर्म परिवर्तन करें वो उनकी इच्छा। कोइ मोदीकी आलोचना करें --- उनकी इच्छा --- it is covered by free speech.

जैसे कि दीपिका ने कहा, फैक्ट्री के दुध में मलाइ नहीं होती। बगैर Opposition के लोकतंत्र नहीं होती। Democracy को vibrant Opposition की जरुरत होती है।

आम आदमी पार्टी के लोग जब से आपस में झगड़ रहे हैं तब से मैंने उनके बारेमें कोइ समाचार नहीं पढ़ी ---- लेकिन headlines तो unavoidable है। अगर AAP पर BJP वाले unfair procedural attacks कर रहे हैं तो वो लोकतंत्र के हित में नहीं। और उससे उनको बिहार जैसे जगहों में बेफायदा होगा। क्योंकि लोकतंत्र भारत के लोग समझते हैं।

एक दो रोज पहले एक दो headlines और सामने आए। मीडिया वालों को क्या है कि controversy पैदा करनी होती है --- रोजी रोटी का सवाल है, पेपर बेचना होता है। मैंने देखा सुषमा स्वराज और वसुंधरा सिंधिया पर एक ही पंक्ति में अटैक। तो मैंने न्यूज़ पढ़ा ही नहीं। It was obvious the attack was sexist, and it was coming from inside the party as much as outside. Granted India is a sexist country, but a sexist India can not become a world power.

लोकतंत्र मजबुत करना है तो free speech, freedom of religion, vibrant Opposition, women's empowerment -- सबको celebrate करो।

Granted the BJP is a big tent, and there are all kinds of people in it. There are fringe elements who will say anything. But when the tail starts wagging the dog (as in, mainstream politics), one has to take note.

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Terrorism

Terrorists Among Us: Jihad in America (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

ढाका में मोदी ने कहा, हमें traditional युद्ध करना आता है, सैनिक भेजो, टैंक भेजो, फाइटर प्लेन भेजो, लेकिन दुनिया को terrorism से कैसे सामना किया जाता है वो नहीं आता। True, it is a new strain of virus.

कुछ solutions हैं।

State building ---- जिस तरह मच्छर पानी न बहने वाली तालाब ढूँढती, उसी तरह आतंकवादी ऐसे देश ढूँढ़ते हैं जहाँ failed state हो।
Cooperation between States ---- दुनिया के देशों को information sharing करनी होगी। Otherwise if each country is a silo of its own, you give the terrorists a lot of room to play.
Information Technology ------ The leaders like Bin Laden might choose to go "dark." But generally speaking terrorist cells rely a lot on electronic communication. There has been much contention on this. Even in countries like America there has been a lot of talk about how civil liberties are being curtailed and citizens are being spied upon. Perhaps there is a happy medium somewhere where you rely mostly on machine reading until you have something substantial and only then you get humans involved. Like with Gmail, the email service serves you ads. But it is machine reading, and you don't feel violated.
Social network mapping ------ All terrorist groups rely on social networks. Smaller and tighter the group, more reliant they are on their social networks. So when you nab a few, they lead you to others.
Political grievances have to be proactively addressed. Not because terrorism is and should work. But if there are legitimate concerns, they are legitimate. And they should be addressed. Not as a matter of negotiation with the terrorists or as a step in being blackmailed, but independent of all that.
The "frontline" is where you have small, agile, well trained operatives who engage in direct action. Mistakes have been made in drone attacks, but they are also one of the tools on the frontlines.
Ideological fights on social media.
Larger debates in society, at universities, in old media, on TV, in newspapers. Point by point rebuttals.

Terrorists rely on the war of asymmetry because they know that is the only way they have any chance. आमने सामने आएंगे तो asymmetry गायब हो जाएगी।

That is why you have to fear the ISIS more, because they are breaking many of the rules of the traditional terrorists. Terrorists prefer not to hold territory.

Terrorists rely a lot on out of the box thinking. That goes along the lines of asymmetry. So you have to keep on your toes and constantly be trying to figure out what their next moves might be. It is a game of chess.

Ultimately you just have to drown them out with plentiful information. Wireless broadband and cheap Android phones for the masses ----- I think that is the number one thing. Hundreds of millions of Muslims sharing cat videos makes ISIS irrelevant. You drown out the terrorists with everyday boring stuff. I happen to think that is the most potent weapon.

I have said this many times. I think of the War On Terror as being on par with the Cold War. It will conclude after there is a total spread of democracy across the Arab/Muslim world.

India is the new Britain, because ultimately this is about the ideology of democracy. The oldest and the largest democracies belong together. America and India need each other.

Terrorism is "cutting edge" like Climate Change ---- they both require global coordination. No one country can tackle either.

No Summer This Year

Global Warming Map-tgk (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

इस साल न्यु यॉर्क में summer आ ही नहीं रहा। लगता है आ गया आ गया फिर ठंढ आ जाती है वापस। पहली मर्तबा ऐसा हो रहा है। मैं वर्षों से feel कर रहा हुँ ---- this is Global Warming. बहुत लोग सोंचते थे और सोंच रहे हैं कि ग्लोबल वार्मिंग का मतलब everything stays the same, the temperature goes up little by little. ये जो वायुमंडल है कोइ लोहे का डंडा नहीं कि धीरे धीरे गरम होगा ----- The weather is dynamic and predictable, because every molecule in the atmosphere is a rapidly moving part. So it is very hard to predict how things will change when you warm it up little by little.

एक या दो साल पहले हुवा --- deep winter आ गया है लेकिन ठण्ड लग ही नहीं रहा, no snowfall, nothing. उस समय भी मेरे को लगा था, ये global warming है। मैंने एक तभी सोंचा था कि since the Arctic has melted to the point such that you can now navigate right around it during summer, that means the air above the Arctic is now moving around more. That changes things.

अभी क्या हो गया है कि Pacific Ocean में एक ब्लॉब जमा हो गया है गरम पानीका। तो उसने जो प्रेशर डिफरेंस create किया है वो East Coast में ऐसा हो गया है कि North Pole से ठंडा हवा घींचे पे घींचे जा रही है। कमसेकम मेरे को तो ऐसा लगता है।

कुछ साल पहले हुवा ग्रीस में --- बहुत सारे wildfires हो रहे थे ---- तो वहाँ के पुलिस ने क्या किया कि जितने known arsonists थे सबको धरपकड़ करना शुरू किया ----- मैंने तभी अपने ब्लॉग पे कहा, नहीं ये arson नहीं है ये ग्लोबल वार्मिंग है।

Global Warming's impacts are going to be unpredictable. The worst case scenarios are dramatic changes like (1) suddenly there are massive rains in the Sahara and (2) the monsoon has changed course and it is no longer passing over the Indian subcontinent. I don't see such things happening right away, but long term if Climate Change keeps happening, all bets are off.

California में जो सुखा चल रहा है ----- वो तो पहला पहला है शायद। At least at the scale that it is happening. प्रकृति हाथी है ----- टक्कर लेना अच्छी बात नहीं।

Temperate zone में ज्यादा असर पड़ेगा शायद short term. Tropics में तो वैसे भी पहले से गर्मी है। वैसे भी Climate Change के सबसे बड़े बड़े culprits temperate zones में ही हैं।

Clean Energy पर प्रगति करना बहुत जरुरी हो गया है।